Osipovichy are favourites to win this match, coming off a win and having a recent form note of coming off a win. They've been scoring 1 goal on average at home, but conceding 2.36. Meanwhile, FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk have struggled away, scoring 1.5 goals on average and conceding 1.75. The model predicts a 43% chance of a home win, 27% chance of a draw, and 30% chance of an away win. The overall shape of the match is expected to be low-scoring, with an average of 2.9 goals expected, and the most likely total number of goals being 2. The single most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 12.6%. The model's selection is the Over 1.5, which has a probability of 79.7%.
Results analysis
The model’s prediction proved spot on as Osipovichy secured a 1-0 victory, extending their winning streak. The pre-match favourite was a home win with a 43 % probability, and the model’s call was correct. Every suggested selection hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99 % confidence, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.7 %, Under 6.5 at 97.1 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 97.1 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 95.7 %, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 94.8 %, and Under 5.5 at 92.6 %. The match confirmed the model’s accuracy across the board, with all predictions settled in the expected direction.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Osipovichy win✓ Hit
43.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk win✗ Miss
30.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Osipovichy
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
2.03
1.20
2.07
1.07
2.00
vs Stronger (25)
0.96
2.16
1.08
2.23
0.83
2.08
vs Similar (5)
2.00
1.40
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.57
1.21
1.29
1.00
1.81
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
3.00
2.00
5.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.78
1.57
0.73
1.09
0.83
2.00
vs Weaker (5)
2.60
1.00
3.50
0.50
2.00
1.33
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Osipovichy) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
79.7%
Under 1.5
20.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
55.4%
Under 2.5
44.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.1%
Under 3.5
66.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
59.2%
No
40.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.6%
2-1
9.2%
1-0 ✓
7.6%
1-2
7.4%
2-0
7.0%
0-0
6.6%
0-1
6.0%
2-2
6.0%
Osipovichy goals ↓
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.6%
6.0%
4.7%
2.0%
0.7%
1
7.6%
13%
7.4%
3.2%
1.1%
2
7.0%
9.2%
6.0%
2.6%
0.8%
3
3.8%
4.9%
3.2%
1.4%
0.4%
4
1.5%
2.0%
1.3%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Osipovichy goals (down), columns = FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.71
Niva
2.57
Lida
2.14
Minsk II
1.86
Osipovichy
1.86
Ostrovets FC
1.71
Bumprom
1.38
Smorgon
1.29
FC Slutsk
1.29
Uni Minsk
1.29
Slonim
1.29
Orsha
1.25
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.00
BATE II
1.00
Volna
1.00
Dinamo Minsk II
0.88
Shakhter Soligorsk
0.88
Gomel II
0.62
Osipovichy is 0.86 points better than FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk in terms of average points per game (1.86 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Niva
3.14
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.43
Lida
2.14
Volna
1.75
Minsk II
1.71
Slonim
1.71
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.62
FC Slutsk
1.57
BATE II
1.57
Bumprom
1.50
Dinamo Minsk II
1.38
Ostrovets FC
1.29
Orsha
1.25
Smorgon
1.14
Uni Minsk
1.14
Osipovichy
1.14
Gomel II
1.00
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.86
Osipovichy is 0.29 goals better than FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 0.86).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.43
Uni Minsk
0.57
Minsk II
1.00
FC Slutsk
1.00
Niva
1.14
Smorgon
1.29
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.43
Ostrovets FC
1.43
Osipovichy
1.43
Slonim
1.57
Bumprom
1.62
Lida
1.71
Orsha
1.88
Dinamo Minsk II
1.88
BATE II
2.00
Volna
2.25
Gomel II
2.38
Shakhter Soligorsk
2.75
Osipovichy and FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.43).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Osipovichy or Draw✓ Hit
70.0%
Avg Implied -
43%
27%
30%
covers Osipovichy + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Osipovichy or FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk✓ Hit
73.2%
Avg Implied -
43%
27%
30%
covers Osipovichy + FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk✗ Miss
56.7%
Avg Implied -
43%
27%
30%
covers Draw + FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Osipovichy over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
79.8%
Under
20.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Osipovichy over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
47.5%
Under
52.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Osipovichy over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
21.7%
Under
78.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Osipovichy over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.9%
Under
92.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
72.8%
Under
27.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
37.4%
Under
62.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
14.3%
Under
85.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.3%
Under
95.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Osipovichy, so a minus line means Osipovichy give that many goals of a start and FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk receive them. At -1, Osipovichy must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Osipovichy win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Osipovichy)Actual: FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
Osipovichy -2
9.3%
Draw -2
13.4%
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk +2
77.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Osipovichy)Actual: Draw
Osipovichy -1
22.7%
Draw -1
20.6%
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk +1
56.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Osipovichy)Actual: Osipovichy
Osipovichy +1
70.0%
Draw +1
16.5%
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk -1
13.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Osipovichy)Actual: Osipovichy
Osipovichy +2
86.6%
Draw +2
8.8%
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk -2
4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Osipovichy
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.83
0.60
0.87
0.47
0.80
vs Stronger (25)
0.52
0.92
0.62
0.92
0.42
0.92
vs Similar (5)
0.60
0.40
0.50
0.50
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.63
0.43
0.50
0.38
0.75
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
3.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (23)
0.22
0.61
0.18
0.36
0.25
0.83
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
0.40
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Osipovichy) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
67.7%
Under 0.5
32.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
30.2%
Under 1.5
69.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
9.9%
Under 2.5
90.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Osipovichy over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
46.3%
Under
53.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Osipovichy over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
12.8%
Under
87.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Osipovichy over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.9%
Under
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
36.8%
Under
63.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.8%
Under
92.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Osipovichy
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.20
0.60
1.20
0.60
1.20
vs Stronger (25)
0.44
1.24
0.46
1.31
0.42
1.17
vs Similar (5)
1.40
1.00
1.50
0.50
1.33
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.93
0.79
0.79
0.62
1.06
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.57
0.96
0.55
0.73
0.58
1.17
vs Weaker (5)
1.40
0.60
2.00
0.50
1.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Osipovichy) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
75.1%
Under 0.5
24.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
43.8%
Under 1.5
56.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
18.3%
Under 2.5
81.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Osipovichy over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
54.9%
Under
45.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Osipovichy over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
20.4%
Under
79.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Osipovichy over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.2%
Under
94.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
46.2%
Under
53.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
12.4%
Under
87.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.3%
Under
97.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
70.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
70.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UM (29)
€2m
FS (22)
€2m
NIV (21)
€2m
SMO (25)
€2m
BUM (20)
€2m
DMI (27)
€1m
M4 (22)
€1m
VOL (18)
€1m
OF (22)
€1m
MI (23)
€1m
LID (18)
€1m
SLO (20)
€1m
BI (20)
€1m
ORS (19)
€1m
OSI (20)
€1m
GI (17)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NIV (5)
€1m
FS (6)
€1m
UM (8)
€1m
BUM (7)
€1m
SMO (9)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
M4 (6)
€0m
MI (6)
€0m
OF (6)
€0m
OSI (6)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
GI (2)
€0m
LID (2)
€0m
DMI (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DMI (11)
€1m
LID (7)
€1m
NIV (7)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
UM (8)
€0m
M4 (7)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
MI (9)
€0m
OF (7)
€0m
SMO (7)
€0m
ORS (9)
€0m
GI (8)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
BUM (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UM (13)
€1m
DMI (14)
€1m
SMO (9)
€1m
BUM (9)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
OF (9)
€1m
NIV (9)
€1m
M4 (9)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
LID (9)
€0m
SLO (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
MI (8)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
GI (7)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🤝 15. Games History
H2H record
No previous meetings
0
OSI wins
0
Draws
0
FEM wins
Head-to-head
Osipovichy vs FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk · H/A from OSI
Belarus: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →