Osipovichy’s recent 1-0 win over FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk suggests a cautious start, yet the model projects a high-scoring affair with an expected total of 3.3 goals. The most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw, carrying a 10.8 % probability. The model favours an away win, with a 47 % chance, while home victory sits at 29 % and a draw at 24 %. Lida, playing away against a weaker opponent, has averaged 3.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded, whereas Osipovichy at home against stronger teams has only 1.07 goals scored and 2.07 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.0 %), Under 6.5 (94.9 %), Home under 3.5 goals (94.3 %), Under 5.5 (88.2 %), Away under 3.5 goals (87.9 %), Away +2 handicap (86.7 %), Over 1.5 (85.2 %) and Away over 0.5 goals (84.6 %).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Osipovichy win
27.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lida win
48.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Osipovichy
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
2.07
1.27
1.93
0.93
2.20
vs Stronger (26)
0.96
2.23
1.15
2.08
0.77
2.38
vs Similar (4)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Lida) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lida
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.30
1.33
2.60
1.13
2.00
1.53
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
2.32
1.36
2.73
1.09
1.91
1.64
vs Weaker (6)
2.67
1.33
2.25
1.25
3.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Osipovichy) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.0%
Under 1.5
15.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
63.8%
Under 2.5
36.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
41.7%
Under 3.5
58.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
64.9%
No
35.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.8%
1-2
9.3%
2-1
6.9%
0-2
6.7%
2-2
6.5%
0-1
6.1%
1-3
5.9%
0-0
4.7%
Osipovichy goals ↓
Lida goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.7%
6.1%
6.7%
4.2%
2.0%
1
4.2%
11%
9.3%
5.9%
2.8%
2
3.6%
6.9%
6.5%
4.1%
1.9%
3
1.7%
3.2%
3.0%
1.9%
0.9%
4
0.6%
1.1%
1.1%
0.7%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Osipovichy goals (down), columns = Lida goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.75
Niva
2.62
Lida
2.14
Osipovichy
1.86
Ostrovets FC
1.71
Minsk II
1.62
Bumprom
1.38
Smorgon
1.29
FC Slutsk
1.29
Uni Minsk
1.29
Slonim
1.29
Orsha
1.25
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.00
Volna
1.00
Dinamo Minsk II
0.88
Shakhter Soligorsk
0.88
BATE II
0.88
Gomel II
0.62
Osipovichy is 0.29 points worse than Lida in terms of average points per game (1.86 vs 2.14).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Niva
3.25
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.50
Lida
2.14
Minsk II
1.88
Volna
1.75
Slonim
1.71
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.62
FC Slutsk
1.57
Bumprom
1.50
Dinamo Minsk II
1.38
BATE II
1.38
Ostrovets FC
1.29
Orsha
1.25
Smorgon
1.14
Uni Minsk
1.14
Osipovichy
1.14
Gomel II
1.00
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.86
Osipovichy is 1.00 goals worse than Lida in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 2.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.38
Uni Minsk
0.57
FC Slutsk
1.00
Smorgon
1.29
Minsk II
1.38
Niva
1.38
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.43
Ostrovets FC
1.43
Osipovichy
1.43
Slonim
1.57
Bumprom
1.62
Lida
1.71
Orsha
1.88
Dinamo Minsk II
1.88
BATE II
2.12
Volna
2.25
Gomel II
2.38
Shakhter Soligorsk
2.75
Osipovichy is 0.29 goals better than Lida in terms of goals conceded per game (1.43 vs 1.71).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Osipovichy or Draw
51.8%
Avg Implied -
27%
24%
48%
covers Osipovichy + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Osipovichy or Lida
75.7%
Avg Implied -
27%
24%
48%
covers Osipovichy + Lida
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Lida
72.5%
Avg Implied -
27%
24%
48%
covers Draw + Lida
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Osipovichy over/under 0.5
Over
75.2%
Under
24.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Osipovichy over/under 1.5
Over
40.7%
Under
59.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Osipovichy over/under 2.5
Over
16.6%
Under
83.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Osipovichy over/under 3.5
Over
5.3%
Under
94.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lida over/under 0.5
Over
84.9%
Under
15.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lida over/under 1.5
Over
56.4%
Under
43.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lida over/under 2.5
Over
29.4%
Under
70.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lida over/under 3.5
Over
12.4%
Under
87.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Osipovichy, so a minus line means Osipovichy give that many goals of a start and Lida receive them. At -1, Osipovichy must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Osipovichy win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Osipovichy)
Osipovichy -2
4.5%
Draw -2
8.1%
Lida +2
87.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Osipovichy)
Osipovichy -1
12.6%
Draw -1
14.9%
Lida +1
72.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Osipovichy)
Osipovichy +1
51.8%
Draw +1
20.5%
Lida -1
27.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Osipovichy)
Osipovichy +2
72.3%
Draw +2
14.9%
Lida -2
12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Osipovichy
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.87
0.60
0.73
0.40
1.00
vs Stronger (26)
0.50
0.96
0.62
0.77
0.38
1.15
vs Similar (4)
0.50
0.25
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Lida) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lida
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.53
1.27
0.53
0.80
0.53
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
-
-
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (22)
1.09
0.50
1.45
0.55
0.73
0.45
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
0.67
0.75
0.50
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Osipovichy) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
72.6%
Under 0.5
27.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
36.6%
Under 1.5
63.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.9%
Under 2.5
83.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Osipovichy over/under 0.5 HT
Over
38.0%
Under
62.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Osipovichy over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.5%
Under
91.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Osipovichy over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lida over/under 0.5 HT
Over
61.3%
Under
38.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lida over/under 1.5 HT
Over
24.5%
Under
75.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lida over/under 2.5 HT
Over
7.4%
Under
92.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Osipovichy
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.20
0.67
1.20
0.53
1.20
vs Stronger (26)
0.46
1.27
0.54
1.31
0.38
1.23
vs Similar (4)
1.50
0.75
1.50
0.50
1.50
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Lida) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lida
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.80
1.33
0.60
1.20
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
-
-
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (22)
1.23
0.86
1.27
0.55
1.18
1.18
vs Weaker (6)
1.67
0.67
1.50
0.75
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Osipovichy) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
79.3%
Under 0.5
20.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
47.3%
Under 1.5
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
25.2%
Under 2.5
74.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Osipovichy over/under 0.5 2H
Over
45.4%
Under
54.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Osipovichy over/under 1.5 2H
Over
14.4%
Under
85.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Osipovichy over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.5%
Under
97.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lida over/under 0.5 2H
Over
62.7%
Under
37.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lida over/under 1.5 2H
Over
28.6%
Under
71.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lida over/under 2.5 2H
Over
9.2%
Under
90.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UM (29)
€2m
FS (22)
€2m
NIV (21)
€2m
SMO (25)
€2m
BUM (20)
€2m
DMI (27)
€1m
M4 (22)
€1m
VOL (18)
€1m
OF (22)
€1m
MI (23)
€1m
LID (18)
€1m
SLO (20)
€1m
BI (20)
€1m
ORS (19)
€1m
OSI (20)
€1m
GI (17)
€1m
Osipovichy and Lida have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NIV (5)
€1m
FS (6)
€1m
UM (8)
€1m
BUM (7)
€1m
SMO (9)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
M4 (6)
€0m
MI (6)
€0m
OF (6)
€0m
OSI (6)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
GI (2)
€0m
LID (2)
€0m
DMI (2)
€0m
Osipovichy and Lida have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DMI (11)
€1m
LID (7)
€1m
NIV (7)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
UM (8)
€0m
M4 (7)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
MI (9)
€0m
OF (7)
€0m
SMO (7)
€0m
ORS (9)
€0m
GI (8)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
BUM (4)
€0m
Osipovichy and Lida have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UM (13)
€1m
DMI (14)
€1m
SMO (9)
€1m
BUM (9)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
OF (9)
€1m
NIV (9)
€1m
M4 (9)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
LID (9)
€0m
SLO (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
MI (8)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
GI (7)
€0m
Osipovichy and Lida have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Belarus: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →