Ostrovets FC host Bumprom in a finely balanced Belarus: 1. Division match on August 16. The hosts' recent form has been impressive, with a 2-game winning run, but Bumprom comes into this match off a defeat. Ostrovets FC has a home win probability of 39%, with a 28% chance of a draw and 34% probability of an away win, making the model's selection a home win. The expected total goals are 2.8, and the most likely total goals are 2. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 13.1%.
Ostrovets FC has scored 1 goal on average at home, conceding 1.57. Bumprom has scored 1.57 goals on average away, conceding 1.29. The model suggests "Over 1.5" with a probability of 78.1%. In terms of match result probabilities, Ostrovets FC has a 39% chance of winning, a 28% chance of drawing, and a 34% chance of losing. The model's suggested picks include "Over 1.5" with 78.1%, and "Home win" with 39%.
Results analysis
The win extends Ostrovets FC's 3-game winning run, with this latest victory over Bumprom coming on the back of a 2-1 win in their previous encounter. The final score was 2-1, resulting in a home win, which aligns with the actual result. The model correctly picked Ostrovets FC to win, with a pre-match probability of 38%. The model's selection of Ostrovets FC to win was correct. The suggested pick of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a probability of 78%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ostrovets FC win✗ Miss
37.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bumprom win✓ Hit
34.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ostrovets FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.40
1.80
1.53
1.53
1.27
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
1.57
1.52
1.73
1.82
1.42
1.25
vs Weaker (6)
2.17
0.83
2.00
0.75
2.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Bumprom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bumprom
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.10
2.21
0.93
1.31
1.25
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (22)
1.86
1.05
2.40
1.00
1.42
1.08
vs Weaker (6)
1.67
1.17
2.00
1.00
1.33
1.33
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Ostrovets FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.0%
Under 1.5
22.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
53.0%
Under 2.5
47.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
30.7%
Under 3.5
69.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.9%
No
42.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%
2-1
8.6%
1-2
8.1%
1-0
7.6%
0-0
7.3%
0-1
7.1%
2-0
6.3%
2-2
5.8%
Ostrovets FC goals ↓
Bumprom goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.3%
7.1%
5.7%
2.6%
0.9%
1
7.6%
13%
8.1%
3.7%
1.3%
2
6.3%
8.6%
5.8%
2.6%
0.9%
3
3.0%
4.1%
2.8%
1.3%
0.4%
4
1.1%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ostrovets FC goals (down), columns = Bumprom goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.71
Niva
2.57
Lida
2.14
Minsk II
1.86
Osipovichy
1.86
Ostrovets FC
1.71
Bumprom
1.38
Smorgon
1.29
FC Slutsk
1.29
Uni Minsk
1.29
Slonim
1.29
Orsha
1.25
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.00
BATE II
1.00
Volna
1.00
Dinamo Minsk II
0.88
Shakhter Soligorsk
0.88
Gomel II
0.62
Ostrovets FC is 0.34 points better than Bumprom in terms of average points per game (1.71 vs 1.38).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Niva
3.14
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.43
Lida
2.14
Volna
1.75
Minsk II
1.71
Slonim
1.71
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.62
FC Slutsk
1.57
BATE II
1.57
Bumprom
1.50
Dinamo Minsk II
1.38
Ostrovets FC
1.29
Orsha
1.25
Smorgon
1.14
Uni Minsk
1.14
Osipovichy
1.14
Gomel II
1.00
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.86
Ostrovets FC is 0.21 goals worse than Bumprom in terms of goals scored per game (1.29 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.43
Uni Minsk
0.57
Minsk II
1.00
FC Slutsk
1.00
Niva
1.14
Smorgon
1.29
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.43
Ostrovets FC
1.43
Osipovichy
1.43
Slonim
1.57
Bumprom
1.62
Lida
1.71
Orsha
1.88
Dinamo Minsk II
1.88
BATE II
2.00
Volna
2.25
Gomel II
2.38
Shakhter Soligorsk
2.75
Ostrovets FC is 0.20 goals better than Bumprom in terms of goals conceded per game (1.43 vs 1.62).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ostrovets FC or Draw✗ Miss
65.5%
Avg Implied -
38%
28%
35%
covers Ostrovets FC + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC or Bumprom✓ Hit
72.3%
Avg Implied -
38%
28%
35%
covers Ostrovets FC + Bumprom
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Bumprom✓ Hit
62.2%
Avg Implied -
38%
28%
35%
covers Draw + Bumprom
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ostrovets FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.63
0.67
0.67
0.33
0.60
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.43
0.70
0.55
0.82
0.33
0.58
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
0.33
1.00
0.25
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Bumprom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bumprom
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.53
0.50
0.43
0.69
0.62
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (22)
0.73
0.41
0.70
0.30
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (6)
0.33
0.83
0.00
1.00
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Ostrovets FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ostrovets FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bumprom over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bumprom over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bumprom over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ostrovets FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.77
1.13
0.87
1.20
0.67
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
1.13
0.83
1.18
1.00
1.08
0.67
vs Weaker (6)
1.33
0.50
1.00
0.50
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Bumprom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bumprom
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.57
1.71
0.50
0.62
0.62
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (22)
1.14
0.64
1.70
0.70
0.67
0.58
vs Weaker (6)
1.33
0.33
2.00
0.00
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Ostrovets FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ostrovets FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bumprom over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bumprom over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bumprom over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UM (29)
€2m
FS (22)
€2m
NIV (21)
€2m
SMO (25)
€2m
BUM (20)
€2m
DMI (27)
€1m
M4 (22)
€1m
VOL (18)
€1m
OF (22)
€1m
MI (23)
€1m
LID (18)
€1m
SLO (20)
€1m
BI (20)
€1m
ORS (19)
€1m
OSI (20)
€1m
GI (17)
€1m
Ostrovets FC and Bumprom have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NIV (5)
€1m
FS (6)
€1m
UM (8)
€1m
BUM (7)
€1m
SMO (9)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
M4 (6)
€0m
MI (6)
€0m
OF (6)
€0m
OSI (6)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
GI (2)
€0m
LID (2)
€0m
DMI (2)
€0m
Ostrovets FC and Bumprom have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DMI (11)
€1m
LID (7)
€1m
NIV (7)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
UM (8)
€0m
M4 (7)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
MI (9)
€0m
OF (7)
€0m
SMO (7)
€0m
ORS (9)
€0m
GI (8)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
BUM (4)
€0m
Ostrovets FC and Bumprom have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UM (13)
€1m
DMI (14)
€1m
SMO (9)
€1m
BUM (9)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
OF (9)
€1m
NIV (9)
€1m
M4 (9)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
LID (9)
€0m
SLO (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
MI (8)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
GI (7)
€0m
Ostrovets FC and Bumprom have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Belarus: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
Niva
Lida
Minsk II
Osipovichy
Orsha
FC Slutsk
Uni Minsk
Slonim
Smorgon
Volna
BATE II
Dinamo Minsk II
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
Shakhter Soligorsk
Gomel II