Ostrovets FC, riding a win after a 1-0 victory over Smorgon, will face Gomel II, who returned from a 0-4 loss to Uni Minsk. The model projects a high-scoring encounter, with an expected 3.3 goals and a most likely total of 3 goals at a 22% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.1% probability, and the model’s pick is a home win, reflecting a 59% chance for Ostrovets, 22% for a draw and 19% for Gomel II. Ostrovets’ home form shows 2.0 goals scored and 0.75 conceded against weaker opposition, while Gomel II’s away form is 0.64 scored and 3.36 conceded against stronger teams. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.1%), Under 6.5 (95.0%), Home +2 handicap (92.6%), Away under 2.5 goals (89.1%), Under 5.5 (88.5%), Home over 0.5 goals (88.2%) and Over 1.5 (84.8%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ostrovets FC win
59.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
22.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Gomel II win
18.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ostrovets FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.40
1.73
1.67
1.53
1.13
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
1.54
1.50
1.67
1.92
1.42
1.08
vs Weaker (5)
2.20
0.80
2.00
0.67
2.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Gomel II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gomel II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
2.50
0.87
2.13
1.00
2.87
vs Stronger (26)
0.81
2.73
0.86
2.29
0.75
3.25
vs Similar (4)
1.75
1.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Ostrovets FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.1%
Under 1.5
14.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
64.2%
Under 2.5
35.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
42.1%
Under 3.5
57.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
61.3%
No
38.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.0%
2-1
9.8%
2-0
8.5%
3-1
7.0%
1-0
7.0%
3-0
6.1%
2-2
5.6%
1-2
5.2%
Ostrovets FC goals ↓
Gomel II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.6%
3.3%
2.4%
0.9%
0.3%
1
7.0%
10%
5.2%
2.0%
0.6%
2
8.5%
9.8%
5.6%
2.2%
0.6%
3
6.1%
7.0%
4.0%
1.6%
0.4%
4
3.3%
3.8%
2.2%
0.8%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ostrovets FC goals (down), columns = Gomel II goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.71
Niva
2.57
Lida
2.14
Minsk II
1.86
Osipovichy
1.86
Ostrovets FC
1.71
Bumprom
1.38
Smorgon
1.29
FC Slutsk
1.29
Uni Minsk
1.29
Slonim
1.29
Orsha
1.25
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.00
BATE II
1.00
Volna
1.00
Dinamo Minsk II
0.88
Shakhter Soligorsk
0.88
Gomel II
0.62
Ostrovets FC is 1.09 points better than Gomel II in terms of average points per game (1.71 vs 0.62).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Niva
3.14
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.43
Lida
2.14
Volna
1.75
Minsk II
1.71
Slonim
1.71
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.62
FC Slutsk
1.57
BATE II
1.57
Bumprom
1.50
Dinamo Minsk II
1.38
Ostrovets FC
1.29
Orsha
1.25
Smorgon
1.14
Uni Minsk
1.14
Osipovichy
1.14
Gomel II
1.00
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.86
Ostrovets FC is 0.29 goals better than Gomel II in terms of goals scored per game (1.29 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.43
Uni Minsk
0.57
Minsk II
1.00
FC Slutsk
1.00
Niva
1.14
Smorgon
1.29
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.43
Ostrovets FC
1.43
Osipovichy
1.43
Slonim
1.57
Bumprom
1.62
Lida
1.71
Orsha
1.88
Dinamo Minsk II
1.88
BATE II
2.00
Volna
2.25
Gomel II
2.38
Shakhter Soligorsk
2.75
Ostrovets FC is 0.95 goals better than Gomel II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.43 vs 2.38).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ostrovets FC or Draw
81.4%
Avg Implied -
59%
22%
19%
covers Ostrovets FC + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC or Gomel II
78.0%
Avg Implied -
59%
22%
19%
covers Ostrovets FC + Gomel II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Gomel II
40.6%
Avg Implied -
59%
22%
19%
covers Draw + Gomel II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ostrovets FC over/under 0.5
Over
88.4%
Under
11.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC over/under 1.5
Over
63.5%
Under
36.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC over/under 2.5
Over
36.6%
Under
63.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC over/under 3.5
Over
17.2%
Under
82.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gomel II over/under 0.5
Over
68.3%
Under
31.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gomel II over/under 1.5
Over
31.9%
Under
68.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gomel II over/under 2.5
Over
11.0%
Under
89.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gomel II over/under 3.5
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Ostrovets FC, so a minus line means Ostrovets FC give that many goals of a start and Gomel II receive them. At -1, Ostrovets FC must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ostrovets FC win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Ostrovets FC)
Ostrovets FC -2
19.5%
Draw -2
18.2%
Gomel II +2
62.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Ostrovets FC)
Ostrovets FC -1
37.6%
Draw -1
21.8%
Gomel II +1
40.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Ostrovets FC)
Ostrovets FC +1
81.4%
Draw +1
11.2%
Gomel II -1
7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Ostrovets FC)
Ostrovets FC +2
92.6%
Draw +2
5.2%
Gomel II -2
2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ostrovets FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.67
0.60
0.80
0.40
0.53
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.46
0.71
0.50
0.92
0.42
0.50
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
0.40
1.00
0.33
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Gomel II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gomel II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.00
0.27
1.00
0.73
1.00
vs Stronger (26)
0.42
1.08
0.29
1.07
0.58
1.08
vs Similar (4)
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.33
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Ostrovets FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
73.7%
Under 0.5
26.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
35.7%
Under 1.5
64.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
13.0%
Under 2.5
87.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ostrovets FC over/under 0.5 HT
Over
63.9%
Under
36.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC over/under 1.5 HT
Over
20.4%
Under
79.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC over/under 2.5 HT
Over
6.9%
Under
93.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gomel II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
33.3%
Under
66.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gomel II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
6.8%
Under
93.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gomel II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.3%
Under
97.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ostrovets FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.73
1.13
0.87
1.13
0.60
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
1.08
0.79
1.17
1.00
1.00
0.58
vs Weaker (5)
1.40
0.40
1.00
0.33
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Gomel II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gomel II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
1.50
0.60
1.13
0.27
1.87
vs Stronger (26)
0.38
1.65
0.57
1.21
0.17
2.17
vs Similar (4)
0.75
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Ostrovets FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
78.2%
Under 0.5
21.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
47.4%
Under 1.5
52.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
24.0%
Under 2.5
76.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ostrovets FC over/under 0.5 2H
Over
68.5%
Under
31.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC over/under 1.5 2H
Over
35.0%
Under
65.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC over/under 2.5 2H
Over
12.2%
Under
87.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gomel II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
41.2%
Under
58.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gomel II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
9.0%
Under
91.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gomel II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.7%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UM (29)
€2m
FS (22)
€2m
NIV (21)
€2m
SMO (25)
€2m
BUM (20)
€2m
DMI (27)
€1m
M4 (22)
€1m
VOL (18)
€1m
OF (22)
€1m
MI (23)
€1m
LID (18)
€1m
SLO (20)
€1m
BI (20)
€1m
ORS (19)
€1m
OSI (20)
€1m
GI (17)
€1m
Ostrovets FC and Gomel II have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NIV (5)
€1m
FS (6)
€1m
UM (8)
€1m
BUM (7)
€1m
SMO (9)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
M4 (6)
€0m
MI (6)
€0m
OF (6)
€0m
OSI (6)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
GI (2)
€0m
LID (2)
€0m
DMI (2)
€0m
Ostrovets FC and Gomel II have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DMI (11)
€1m
LID (7)
€1m
NIV (7)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
UM (8)
€0m
M4 (7)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
MI (9)
€0m
OF (7)
€0m
SMO (7)
€0m
ORS (9)
€0m
GI (8)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
BUM (4)
€0m
Ostrovets FC and Gomel II have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UM (13)
€1m
DMI (14)
€1m
SMO (9)
€1m
BUM (9)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
OF (9)
€1m
NIV (9)
€1m
M4 (9)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
LID (9)
€0m
SLO (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
MI (8)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
GI (7)
€0m
Ostrovets FC and Gomel II have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Belarus: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →