PythiaFootballBETA
Ostrovets FC host Lida in Belarus: 1. Division, with the away side boasting a recent 3-game winning run, having last defeated FC Slutsk 2-1. This trend, combined with Lida's away form, where they've scored an average of 1.2 goals and conceded 1.6, against an opponent of similar strength, hints at an open match. Ostrovets FC, however, have struggled to find consistency, coming off a win but previously experiencing a dip in form. The model suggests an away win, with a 41% probability, while the home win and draw probabilities stand at 34% and 25% respectively.
The expected total goals are 3.2, with a most likely total of 3 goals. The single most likely score is 1-1, with a 11.4% probability. Ostrovets FC have scored 0.78 goals and conceded 1.44 at home, against an opponent of similar strength, while Lida have scored 1.2 away and conceded 1.6.
The model's selection is the Away win, with a 41% probability, and the Over 1.5 goals, with a 84% probability of hitting. The home win percentage is 34%, the draw percentage is 25%, and the away win percentage is 41%.
The win extends Ostrovets FC's run of inconsistent results, but it's Lida who takes the spoils. The final score was 1-3 in favour of the visitors, confirming the actual result of an away win. The model correctly picked Lida as the favourite, with a pre-match probability of 41%. The model's selection, an away win, was the correct call.
The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a probability of 84%. The most likely score was a 1-1 draw, but the actual outcome was a 1-3 margin for Lida. The expected total goals was 3.2, and the most likely total goals was 3.
Ostrovets FC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.53 | 1.37 | 1.71 | 1.50 | 1.38 | 1.25 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.75 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 0.67 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (19) | 1.21 | 1.32 | 1.22 | 1.56 | 1.20 | 1.10 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 2.86 | 1.14 | 3.00 | 1.25 | 2.67 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-9pp vs league) | |||||
Lida| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 2.07 | 1.27 | 2.50 | 1.19 | 1.57 | 1.36 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 2.33 | 0.67 | 7.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (19) | 1.95 | 1.47 | 2.20 | 1.40 | 1.67 | 1.56 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 2.25 | 1.00 | 2.20 | 1.00 | 2.33 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+4pp vs league) | |||||
| Lida goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 1.4% |
| 1 | 5.1% | 11% | 8.8% | 4.9% | 2.1% |
| 2 | 4.7% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 3.7% | 1.6% |
| 3 | 2.4% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.8% |
| 4 | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 84.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/25 | H | 1-3 | |
| 05/04/25 | A | 4-1 | |
| 07/09/24 | A | 0-1 | |
| 11/05/24 | H | 0-2 | |
| 12/11/23 | A | 4-0 | |
| 09/07/23 | H | 1-0 | |
| 01/10/22 | A | 0-0 | |
| 22/05/22 | H | 4-0 |
Ostrovets FC| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 22/11/25 | A | 1-3 | |
| 15/11/25 | H | 2-1 | |
| 08/11/25 | A | 2-3 | |
| 02/11/25 | H | 0-2 | |
| 27/10/25 | A | 1-0 | |
| 22/10/25 | H | 0-1 | |
| 18/10/25 | H | 5-3 | |
| 11/10/25 | A | 0-2 | |
| 04/10/25 | H | 1-2 |
Lida| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 22/11/25 | A | 0-5 | |
| 15/11/25 | H | 1-2 | |
| 06/11/25 | A | 0-2 | |
| 31/10/25 | A | 0-3 | |
| 25/10/25 | A | 3-2 | |
| 18/10/25 | H | 7-0 | |
| 12/10/25 | A | 2-1 | |
| 05/10/25 | H | 2-1 | |
| 27/09/25 | A | 3-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Niva | 5 | 15 | 100% | 3.0 | 14 | 5 | +9 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 2 |  Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 12 | 2 | +10 | 2.8 | 80% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.4 | 0.4 | - |
| 3 |  Minsk II | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 4 |  Osipovichy | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 2.2 | 80% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 0.8 | - |
| 5 | Lida | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 3.8 | 100% | 100% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 6 |  Smorgon | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 2.2 | 100% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 7 | Ostrovets FC | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 2.8 | 100% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.4 | - |
| 8 |  Volna | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 4.5 | 83% | 83% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 2.2 | - |
| 9 |  Orsha | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 2.8 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.6 | - |
| 10 |  Shakhter Soligorsk | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 4.5 | 83% | 83% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.7 | - |
| 11 |  Uni Minsk | 5 | 6 | 20% | 1.2 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.4 | 60% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 12 |  Slonim | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 3.4 | 100% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 13 |  FC Slutsk | 5 | 5 | 20% | 1.0 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 2.6 | 80% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.2 | - |
| 14 |  Bumprom | 6 | 5 | 17% | 0.8 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 2.5 | 83% | 50% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 15 |  FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 2.4 | 60% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 1.6 | - |
| 16 |  Gomel II | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 17 |  BATE II | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3.6 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 2.2 | - |
| 18 |  Dinamo Minsk II | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 2.6 | 80% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 2.0 | - |