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Ostrovets FC vs Niva Result & Analysis

Date: 04/10/2025
Time: 11:00
Final 1-2
Ostrovets FC
Ostrovets FC
Vs
24%
23%
53%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Niva
Niva
Belarus: 1. Division
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Ostrovets FC win✗ Miss
24.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Niva win✓ Hit
52.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Ostrovets FCOstrovets FC

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-631W62W01L13L12L30W20W11D12L31WA·VOL19/07H·ORS26/07A·MIN03/08H·LID09/08A·LOK15/08H·SLO24/08A·BEL30/08A·BUM14/09H·FC 20/09A·BAT28/09
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.431.401.601.331.271.47
vs Stronger (3)1.331.331.501.001.002.00
vs Similar (23)1.301.481.501.501.151.46
vs Weaker (4)2.251.002.001.003.001.00
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Niva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

NivaNiva

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-710W14L01L53W41W70W22D02L01L24LH·DIN18/07A·BUM26/07A·FC 03/08H·BAT10/08A·ORS16/08A·OSI23/08H·UNI30/08H·BAR13/09A·GOM21/09H·VOL28/09
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.171.632.061.752.291.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)1.951.952.182.001.701.90
vs Weaker (9)2.670.891.801.203.750.50
Clean sheet %23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Ostrovets FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%22%4%09%119%222%319%413%514%6+
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.4%
Under 1.5
12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
68.1%
Under 2.5
31.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
46.6%
Under 3.5
53.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
67.1%
No
32.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.7%
1-2 ✓
9.3%
0-2
6.6%
1-3
6.5%
2-2
6.5%
2-1
6.2%
0-1
5.4%
0-3
4.7%
Ostrovets FC goals ↓
Niva goals →
01234
03.9%5.4%6.6%4.7%2.5%
13.3%9.7%9.3%6.5%3.4%
22.9%6.2%6.5%4.6%2.4%
31.4%2.9%3.1%2.1%1.1%
40.5%1.0%1.1%0.8%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ostrovets FC goals (down), columns = Niva goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Baranovichi
2.18
FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.97
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.88
Belshina
1.85
Lida
1.74
Bumprom
1.74
Niva
1.62
BATE II
1.56
Minsk II
1.50
Ostrovets FC
1.50
Volna
1.41
ABFF U19
1.24
Dinamo Minsk II
1.18
Uni Minsk
1.06
Gomel II
0.82
Orsha
0.74
Osipovichy
0.64
Slonim
0.61
Ostrovets FC is 0.12 points worse than Niva in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 1.62).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Baranovichi
2.21
Lida
2.18
BATE II
2.06
Niva
2.00
Volna
1.91
Belshina
1.88
FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.74
Ostrovets FC
1.65
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.65
Bumprom
1.65
Uni Minsk
1.59
Minsk II
1.44
ABFF U19
1.29
Orsha
1.24
Osipovichy
1.18
Gomel II
1.00
Dinamo Minsk II
1.00
Slonim
0.91
Ostrovets FC is 0.35 goals worse than Niva in terms of goals scored per game (1.65 vs 2.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Baranovichi
0.85
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.00
Bumprom
1.06
FC Dnepr Mogilev
1.09
Dinamo Minsk II
1.18
Belshina
1.18
Lida
1.29
Minsk II
1.38
Ostrovets FC
1.41
ABFF U19
1.44
BATE II
1.53
Volna
1.62
Niva
1.65
Uni Minsk
2.12
Slonim
2.33
Osipovichy
2.33
Gomel II
2.44
Orsha
2.74
Ostrovets FC is 0.24 goals better than Niva in terms of goals conceded per game (1.41 vs 1.65).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Ostrovets FCOstrovets FC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D22D01L01L01L20W10W00D01L11DA·VOL19/07H·ORS26/07A·MIN03/08H·LID09/08A·LOK15/08H·SLO24/08A·BEL30/08A·BUM14/09H·FC 20/09A·BAT28/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.700.730.730.330.67
vs Stronger (3)0.330.670.500.500.001.00
vs Similar (23)0.480.780.700.900.310.69
vs Weaker (4)1.000.251.000.331.000.00
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Niva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

NivaNiva

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W03L00D40W21W30W01L02L00D11DH·DIN18/07A·BUM26/07A·FC 03/08H·BAT10/08A·ORS16/08A·OSI23/08H·UNI30/08H·BAR13/09A·GOM21/09H·VOL28/09
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.600.940.620.860.57
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)0.760.711.000.730.500.70
vs Weaker (9)1.220.330.800.401.750.25
Clean sheet %57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Ostrovets FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ostrovets FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Ostrovets FCOstrovets FC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W40W00D12L11D10W10W11D11D20WA·VOL19/07H·ORS26/07A·MIN03/08H·LID09/08A·LOK15/08H·SLO24/08A·BEL30/08A·BUM14/09H·FC 20/09A·BAT28/09
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.700.870.600.930.80
vs Stronger (3)1.000.671.000.501.001.00
vs Similar (23)0.830.700.800.600.850.77
vs Weaker (4)1.250.751.000.672.001.00
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Niva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

NivaNiva

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D11D01L13L20W40W21W00D01L13LH·DIN18/07A·BUM26/07A·FC 03/08H·BAT10/08A·ORS16/08A·OSI23/08H·UNI30/08H·BAR13/09A·GOM21/09H·VOL28/09
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.271.031.121.121.430.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)1.191.241.181.271.201.20
vs Weaker (9)1.440.561.000.802.000.25
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Ostrovets FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ostrovets FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Niva over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.587.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FDM (25)
€3m
BAR (21)
€2m
UM (29)
€2m
BEL (16)
€2m
NIV (21)
€2m
BUM (20)
€2m
DMI (27)
€1m
VOL (18)
€1m
OF (22)
€1m
MI (23)
€1m
LID (18)
€1m
SLO (20)
€1m
BI (20)
€1m
ORS (19)
€1m
OSI (20)
€1m
GI (17)
€1m
Ostrovets FC and Niva have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FDM (9)
€1m
BAR (8)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
NIV (5)
€1m
UM (8)
€1m
BUM (7)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
MI (6)
€0m
OF (6)
€0m
OSI (6)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
GI (2)
€0m
LID (2)
€0m
DMI (2)
€0m
Ostrovets FC and Niva have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FDM (6)
€1m
DMI (11)
€1m
LID (7)
€1m
NIV (7)
€1m
UM (8)
€0m
BAR (4)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
MI (9)
€0m
OF (7)
€0m
ORS (9)
€0m
GI (8)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
BEL (2)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
BUM (4)
€0m
Ostrovets FC and Niva have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FDM (10)
€1m
BAR (9)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
UM (13)
€1m
DMI (14)
€1m
BUM (9)
€1m
OF (9)
€1m
NIV (9)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
LID (9)
€0m
SLO (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
MI (8)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
GI (7)
€0m
Ostrovets FC and Niva have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
0
OF wins
3
Draws
2
NIV wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Ostrovets FC vs Niva · H/A from OF
DateH/AGameScore
01/06/25ANiva Vs OF2-1
02/11/24ANiva Vs OF1-0
07/07/24HOF Vs Niva3-3
28/10/23ANiva Vs OF1-1
24/06/23HOF Vs Niva1-1

Ostrovets FCOstrovets FC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/09/25ABATE II Vs OF1-3
20/09/25HOF Vs FC Dnepr Mogilev1-2
14/09/25ABumprom Vs OF1-1
30/08/25ABelshina Vs OF0-2
24/08/25HOF Vs Slonim3-0
15/08/25ALokomotiv Gomel Vs OF2-1
09/08/25HOF Vs Lida1-3
03/08/25AMinsk II Vs OF1-0
26/07/25HOF Vs Orsha6-2
19/07/25AVolna Vs OF1-3

NivaNiva

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/09/25HNIV Vs Volna2-4
21/09/25AGomel II Vs NIV1-0
13/09/25HNIV Vs Baranovichi0-2
30/08/25HNIV Vs Uni Minsk2-2
23/08/25AOsipovichy Vs NIV0-7
16/08/25AOrsha Vs NIV1-4
10/08/25HNIV Vs BATE II5-3
03/08/25AFC Dnepr Mogilev Vs NIV1-0
26/07/25ABumprom Vs NIV4-1
18/07/25HNIV Vs Dinamo Minsk II1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Ostrovets FC
Ostrovets FC
Belarus: 1. Division
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDLW1.30
HomeLWLWL1.42
AwayLLWDW1.19
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%42%35%
AVG goals3.023.043.00
Over 1.5 %80%79%81%
Over 2.5 %64%71%58%
Over 3.5 %36%29%42%
Scored1.441.541.35
Conceded1.581.501.65
BTTS60%50%69%
Clean Sheet22%29%15%
Corners---
Cards---
Niva
Niva
Belarus: 1. Division
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLLL1.80
HomeWWDLL1.89
AwayLLWWL1.70
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %54%56%52%
AVG goals3.303.373.22
Over 1.5 %74%74%74%
Over 2.5 %60%63%57%
Over 3.5 %44%41%48%
Scored2.001.962.04
Conceded1.301.411.17
BTTS52%67%35%
Clean Sheet32%26%39%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1BaranovichiBaranovichi3474
68%
2.2
7529+46
3.1
85%
56%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.20.9
-
2FC Dnepr MogilevFC Dnepr Mogilev3467
59%
2.0
5937+22
2.8
85%
59%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.71.1
-
3Lokomotiv GomelLokomotiv Gomel3464
53%
1.9
5634+22
2.6
68%
50%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.0
-
4BelshinaBelshina3463
56%
1.9
6440+24
3.1
85%
62%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.91.2
-
5LidaLida3459
56%
1.7
7444+30
3.5
85%
76%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0102.21.3
-
6BumpromBumprom3459
47%
1.7
5636+20
2.7
85%
44%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.61.1
-
7NivaNiva3455
44%
1.6
6856+12
3.6
85%
68%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1112.01.6
-
8BATE IIBATE II3453
44%
1.6
7052+18
3.6
88%
65%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.11.5
-
9Ostrovets FCOstrovets FC3451
47%
1.5
5648+8
3.1
82%
62%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.61.4
-
10Minsk IIMinsk II3451
44%
1.5
4947+2
2.8
68%
50%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.41.4
-
11VolnaVolna3448
38%
1.4
6555+10
3.5
91%
68%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.91.6
-
12ABFF U19ABFF U193442
32%
1.2
4449-5
2.7
76%
56%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.4
-
13Dinamo Minsk IIDinamo Minsk II3440
29%
1.2
3440-6
2.2
65%
38%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0111.01.2
-
14Uni MinskUni Minsk3436
29%
1.1
5472-18
3.7
94%
76%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.62.1
-
15Gomel IIGomel II3428
24%
0.8
3483-49
3.4
79%
68%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.02.4
-
16OrshaOrsha3425
21%
0.7
4293-51
4.0
94%
79%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.22.7
-
17OsipovichyOsipovichy3321
15%
0.6
3977-38
3.5
97%
70%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.22.3
-
18SlonimSlonim3320
18%
0.6
3077-47
3.2
91%
70%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.92.3
-
Belarus: 1. Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →

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