Ostrovets FC’s recent win over Smorgon gives them a slight lift, yet Uni Minsk’s unbeaten run and 4-0 rout of Gomel II suggest a stronger form. The model favours an away win, with a 46% chance for Uni Minsk, 29% for Ostrovets and 25% for a draw. The expected total is 3.2 goals, centring on a 3-goal total that carries a 22% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 11.2% chance, reflecting the balanced scoring and conceding figures: Ostrovets average 1.64 goals for and 2.09 against at home against similar opposition, while Uni Minsk averages 1.3 for and 1.9 against on the road.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.3%), Under 6.5 (95.4%), Home under 3.5 goals (94.4%), Under 5.5 (89.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (89.1%), Away +2 handicap (86.4%), Over 1.5 (84.2%) and Away over 0.5 goals (83.5%). Each pick is presented with its exact probability, and no other outcomes are given a win probability.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ostrovets FC win
31.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Uni Minsk win
42.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ostrovets FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.40
1.73
1.67
1.53
1.13
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
1.54
1.50
1.67
1.92
1.42
1.08
vs Weaker (5)
2.20
0.80
2.00
0.67
2.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Uni Minsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Uni Minsk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.77
1.75
1.88
1.50
1.64
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
0.75
2.00
vs Similar (20)
1.40
1.80
1.46
1.69
1.29
2.00
vs Weaker (5)
3.20
1.40
3.50
3.00
3.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Ostrovets FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
83.1%
Under 1.5
16.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
60.6%
Under 2.5
39.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
38.3%
Under 3.5
61.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
63.3%
No
36.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.7%
1-2
9.0%
2-1
7.7%
2-2
6.5%
0-1
6.3%
0-2
6.2%
0-0
5.4%
1-0
5.2%
Ostrovets FC goals ↓
Uni Minsk goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.4%
6.3%
6.2%
3.5%
1.5%
1
5.2%
12%
9.0%
5.1%
2.1%
2
4.5%
7.7%
6.5%
3.7%
1.5%
3
2.2%
3.7%
3.1%
1.8%
0.7%
4
0.8%
1.3%
1.1%
0.6%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ostrovets FC goals (down), columns = Uni Minsk goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.71
Niva
2.57
Lida
2.14
Minsk II
1.86
Osipovichy
1.86
Ostrovets FC
1.71
Bumprom
1.38
Smorgon
1.29
FC Slutsk
1.29
Uni Minsk
1.29
Slonim
1.29
Orsha
1.25
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.00
BATE II
1.00
Volna
1.00
Dinamo Minsk II
0.88
Shakhter Soligorsk
0.88
Gomel II
0.62
Ostrovets FC is 0.43 points better than Uni Minsk in terms of average points per game (1.71 vs 1.29).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Niva
3.14
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2.43
Lida
2.14
Volna
1.75
Minsk II
1.71
Slonim
1.71
Shakhter Soligorsk
1.62
FC Slutsk
1.57
BATE II
1.57
Bumprom
1.50
Dinamo Minsk II
1.38
Ostrovets FC
1.29
Orsha
1.25
Smorgon
1.14
Uni Minsk
1.14
Osipovichy
1.14
Gomel II
1.00
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
0.86
Ostrovets FC is 0.14 goals better than Uni Minsk in terms of goals scored per game (1.29 vs 1.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
0.43
Uni Minsk
0.57
Minsk II
1.00
FC Slutsk
1.00
Niva
1.14
Smorgon
1.29
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
1.43
Ostrovets FC
1.43
Osipovichy
1.43
Slonim
1.57
Bumprom
1.62
Lida
1.71
Orsha
1.88
Dinamo Minsk II
1.88
BATE II
2.00
Volna
2.25
Gomel II
2.38
Shakhter Soligorsk
2.75
Ostrovets FC is 0.86 goals worse than Uni Minsk in terms of goals conceded per game (1.43 vs 0.57).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ostrovets FC or Draw
57.5%
Avg Implied -
32%
26%
43%
covers Ostrovets FC + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC or Uni Minsk
74.4%
Avg Implied -
32%
26%
43%
covers Ostrovets FC + Uni Minsk
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Uni Minsk
68.2%
Avg Implied -
32%
26%
43%
covers Draw + Uni Minsk
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ostrovets FC over/under 0.5
Over
76.4%
Under
23.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC over/under 1.5
Over
42.3%
Under
57.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC over/under 2.5
Over
17.7%
Under
82.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC over/under 3.5
Over
5.9%
Under
94.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Uni Minsk over/under 0.5
Over
81.6%
Under
18.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Uni Minsk over/under 1.5
Over
50.4%
Under
49.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Uni Minsk over/under 2.5
Over
24.0%
Under
76.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Uni Minsk over/under 3.5
Over
9.2%
Under
90.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Ostrovets FC, so a minus line means Ostrovets FC give that many goals of a start and Uni Minsk receive them. At -1, Ostrovets FC must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ostrovets FC win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Ostrovets FC)
Ostrovets FC -2
5.6%
Draw -2
9.5%
Uni Minsk +2
84.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Ostrovets FC)
Ostrovets FC -1
15.1%
Draw -1
16.7%
Uni Minsk +1
68.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Ostrovets FC)
Ostrovets FC +1
57.5%
Draw +1
19.8%
Uni Minsk -1
22.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Ostrovets FC)
Ostrovets FC +2
77.3%
Draw +2
13.1%
Uni Minsk -2
9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ostrovets FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.67
0.60
0.80
0.40
0.53
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.46
0.71
0.50
0.92
0.42
0.50
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
0.40
1.00
0.33
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Uni Minsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Uni Minsk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.60
1.00
0.50
0.36
0.71
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.80
1.00
0.00
0.25
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.60
0.60
0.77
0.54
0.29
0.71
vs Weaker (5)
1.40
0.40
2.50
0.50
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Ostrovets FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ostrovets FC over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Uni Minsk over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Uni Minsk over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Uni Minsk over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ostrovets FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.73
1.13
0.87
1.13
0.60
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
1.08
0.79
1.17
1.00
1.00
0.58
vs Weaker (5)
1.40
0.40
1.00
0.33
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Uni Minsk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Uni Minsk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.17
0.75
1.38
1.14
0.93
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.20
1.00
2.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.80
1.20
0.69
1.15
1.00
1.29
vs Weaker (5)
1.80
1.00
1.00
2.50
2.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Ostrovets FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ostrovets FC over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ostrovets FC over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Uni Minsk over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Uni Minsk over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Uni Minsk over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UM (29)
€2m
FS (22)
€2m
NIV (21)
€2m
SMO (25)
€2m
BUM (20)
€2m
DMI (27)
€1m
M4 (22)
€1m
VOL (18)
€1m
OF (22)
€1m
MI (23)
€1m
LID (18)
€1m
SLO (20)
€1m
BI (20)
€1m
ORS (19)
€1m
OSI (20)
€1m
GI (17)
€1m
Ostrovets FC and Uni Minsk have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NIV (5)
€1m
FS (6)
€1m
UM (8)
€1m
BUM (7)
€1m
SMO (9)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
M4 (6)
€0m
MI (6)
€0m
OF (6)
€0m
OSI (6)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
GI (2)
€0m
LID (2)
€0m
DMI (2)
€0m
Ostrovets FC and Uni Minsk have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DMI (11)
€1m
LID (7)
€1m
NIV (7)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
UM (8)
€0m
M4 (7)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
MI (9)
€0m
OF (7)
€0m
SMO (7)
€0m
ORS (9)
€0m
GI (8)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
BUM (4)
€0m
Ostrovets FC and Uni Minsk have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
UM (13)
€1m
DMI (14)
€1m
SMO (9)
€1m
BUM (9)
€1m
FS (8)
€1m
OF (9)
€1m
NIV (9)
€1m
M4 (9)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
LID (9)
€0m
SLO (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
MI (8)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
GI (7)
€0m
Ostrovets FC and Uni Minsk have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Belarus: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →