Otrant-Olympic vs Grbalj Result & Analysis

Date: 20/05/2026

Time: 15:30

Final 4-2

Otrant-Olympic

63%

21%

16%

■ Home ■ Draw ■ Away

Grbalj

Montenegro: Second League

Referee: -

Match preview & prediction

Otrant-Olympic are the clear favourites to win at home against Grbalj, with the model predicting a home win 63% of the time. This is largely due to their strong home form, scoring an average of 2.33 goals and conceding just 0.89 goals when playing at home against weaker opponents. Grbalj, on the other hand, have struggled away from home, scoring an average of 1.17 goals and conceding 2.17 goals when facing stronger opponents.

The model suggests a home win with a probability of 63%, a draw at 21%, and an away win at 16%. The expected total number of goals is 3.2, with the most likely total number of goals being 3. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 9.9%.

The model's selection is the home win, with a suggested pick of Over 1.5 goals, which has a probability of 83.8%. Other suggested picks include the home win at 63%, the draw at 21%, and the away win at 16%. The home side has a 63% chance of winning, a 21% chance of drawing, and a 16% chance of losing.

Results analysis

The win extends Otrant-Olympic's run, coming off a 4-1 victory over Sutjeska. Their home dominance was on full display as they secured a 4-2 win over Grbalj, the actual result matching the model's call of a home win, which carried a 63% pre-match probability. The model's selection proved correct. The suggested pick of Over 1.5 goals also hit, with an 83.8% pre-match probability. Grbalj's away form showed signs of struggle, conceding an average of 2.17 goals per game, while Otrant-Olympic's home form boasted an average of 2.33 goals scored. The most likely total goals was 3, with the most probable score being a 2-1 win for Otrant-Olympic, although the actual score was 4-2.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Otrant-Olympic win✓ Hit

63.1%

Avg Implied -

Best 5 market prices

No market prices yet.

Draw✗ Miss

21.4%

Avg Implied -

Best 5 market prices

No market prices yet.

Grbalj win✗ Miss

15.5%

Avg Implied -

Best 5 market prices

No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Otrant-Olympic

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

2.8

Avg scored

1.9

Avg conceded

0.9

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	2.13	0.90	2.67	0.87	1.60	0.93
vs Stronger (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
vs Similar (12)	2.58	0.83	3.17	0.83	2.00	0.83
vs Weaker (18)	1.83	0.94	2.33	0.89	1.33	1.00
Clean sheet %	40% (+8pp vs league)

This opponent (Grbalj) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Grbalj

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

3.2

Avg scored

1.8

Avg conceded

1.4

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.80	1.17	2.20	0.93	1.40	1.40
vs Stronger (14)	1.64	1.43	2.00	0.88	1.17	2.17
vs Similar (9)	1.67	0.78	2.00	0.33	1.50	1.00
vs Weaker (7)	2.29	1.14	2.75	1.50	1.67	0.67
Clean sheet %	23% (-9pp vs league)

This opponent (Otrant-Olympic) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).

Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over

Over 1.5

83.8%

Under 1.5

16.2%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over

Over 2.5

62.0%

Under 2.5

38.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over

Over 3.5

39.7%

Under 3.5

60.3%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Both teams to scoreActual: Yes

Yes

57.5%

42.5%

Best 5 market prices

Yes

No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).

1-1

9.9%

2-1

9.9%

2-0

9.7%

1-0

8.0%

3-1

7.2%

3-0

7.1%

2-2

5.0%

0-0

5.0%

Otrant-Olympic goals ↓

	Grbalj goals →
	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.0%	3.2%	2.1%	0.7%	0.2%
1	8.0%	9.9%	4.6%	1.5%	0.4%
2	9.7%	9.9%	5.0%	1.7%	0.4%
3	7.1%	7.2%	3.6%	1.2%	0.3%
4	3.9%	3.9%	2.0%	0.7%	0.2%

Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Otrant-Olympic goals (down), columns = Grbalj goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game

Otrant-Olympic

2.06

Grbalj

1.86

Iskra (Montenegro)

1.78

Berane

1.39

Kom

1.39

Rudar (Montenegro)

1.34

Lovćen

1.33

Mladost Lješkopolje

1.31

Zeta

1.00

Igalo

0.89

Internacional Podgorica

0.64

Brskovo

0.00

Otrant-Olympic is 0.19 points better than Grbalj in terms of average points per game (2.06 vs 1.86).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game

Otrant-Olympic

2.25

Grbalj

1.75

Rudar (Montenegro)

1.42

Iskra (Montenegro)

1.42

Kom

1.31

Berane

1.25

Mladost Lješkopolje

1.08

Lovćen

0.94

Internacional Podgorica

0.86

Igalo

0.58

Zeta

0.50

Brskovo

0.50

Otrant-Olympic is 0.50 goals better than Grbalj in terms of goals scored per game (2.25 vs 1.75).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better

Zeta

0.50

Otrant-Olympic

0.86

Iskra (Montenegro)

0.94

Berane

1.00

Grbalj

1.17

Kom

1.19

Lovćen

1.25

Mladost Lješkopolje

1.28

Rudar (Montenegro)

1.29

Igalo

1.55

Internacional Podgorica

2.11

Brskovo

3.50

Otrant-Olympic is 0.31 goals better than Grbalj in terms of goals conceded per game (0.86 vs 1.17).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.

Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔥 6. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.

Pick	Probability	Avg odds	Best 1	Best 2	Best 3	Best 4	Best 5	Edge	Result
Over 1.5	83.8%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	✓ Hit

💰 7. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

ML (24)

€2m

OTR (27)

€1m

R( (36)

€0m

GRB (36)

€0m

LOV (45)

€0m

BER (36)

€0m

KOM (37)

€0m

Otrant-Olympic's squad is €1m more valuable than Grbalj's (€1m vs €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

ML (0)

€0m

OTR (0)

€0m

BER (0)

€0m

GRB (0)

€0m

KOM (0)

€0m

LOV (0)

€0m

R( (0)

€0m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

ML (0)

€0m

OTR (0)

€0m

BER (0)

€0m

GRB (0)

€0m

KOM (0)

€0m

LOV (0)

€0m

R( (0)

€0m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

ML (0)

€0m

OTR (0)

€0m

BER (0)

€0m

GRB (0)

€0m

KOM (0)

€0m

LOV (0)

€0m

R( (0)

€0m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 8. Games History

Head-to-head

Otrant-Olympic vs Grbalj · H/A from OTR

Date	H/A	Game	Score
28/03/26	A	Grbalj Vs OTR	2-1
22/11/25	H	OTR Vs Grbalj	2-0
24/09/25	A	Grbalj Vs OTR	1-0
20/04/24	A	Grbalj Vs OTR	0-4
06/03/24	H	OTR Vs Grbalj	2-1
15/10/23	A	Grbalj Vs OTR	1-3
26/08/23	H	OTR Vs Grbalj	1-1
21/05/23	A	Grbalj Vs OTR	0-0

Otrant-Olympic

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
16/05/26	A	Iskra (Montenegro) Vs OTR	2-2
10/05/26	H	OTR Vs Mladost Lješkopolje	1-0
02/05/26	A	Igalo Vs OTR	0-2
26/04/26	H	OTR Vs Lovćen	2-1
18/04/26	A	Berane Vs OTR	0-2
12/04/26	H	OTR Vs Rudar (Montenegro)	4-0
08/04/26	A	Internacional Podgorica Vs OTR	0-2
04/04/26	H	OTR Vs Kom	1-2
28/03/26	A	Grbalj Vs OTR	2-1
22/03/26	H	OTR Vs Iskra (Montenegro)	2-2

Grbalj

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
16/05/26	A	Kom Vs GRB	0-2
10/05/26	H	GRB Vs Iskra (Montenegro)	2-2
02/05/26	A	Mladost Lješkopolje Vs GRB	3-2
26/04/26	H	GRB Vs Igalo	0-1
18/04/26	A	Lovćen Vs GRB	0-2
12/04/26	H	GRB Vs Berane	1-2
08/04/26	A	Rudar (Montenegro) Vs GRB	1-2
04/04/26	A	Internacional Podgorica Vs GRB	2-1
28/03/26	H	GRB Vs Otrant-Olympic	2-1
22/03/26	H	GRB Vs Kom	4-2

📊 9. Overall Statistics

Otrant-Olympic

Montenegro: Second League

Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	WWWWD	1.78
Home	DLWWW	2.08
Away	LWWWD	1.46

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	54%	65%	42%
AVG goals	3.16	3.35	2.96
Over 1.5 %	78%	73%	83%
Over 2.5 %	58%	58%	58%
Over 3.5 %	36%	38%	33%
Scored	2.06	2.46	1.62
Conceded	1.10	0.88	1.33
BTTS	50%	46%	54%
Clean Sheet	34%	38%	29%
Corners	-	-	-
Cards	-	-	-

Grbalj

Montenegro: Second League

Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	WLLDW	1.62
Home	WWLLD	2.16
Away	LWWLW	1.08

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	46%	64%	28%
AVG goals	2.84	3.04	2.64
Over 1.5 %	90%	88%	92%
Over 2.5 %	48%	60%	36%
Over 3.5 %	26%	32%	20%
Scored	1.58	2.00	1.16
Conceded	1.26	1.04	1.48
BTTS	64%	68%	60%
Clean Sheet	20%	24%	16%
Corners	-	-	-
Cards	-	-	-

🏆 10. League Table

Record						Goals							Props / game						Squad value €m				Strengths
Rank	Team	MP	Pts	Win%	PPG	GF	GA	GD	G/G	O1.5	O2.5	O3.5	Cor	Cor O%	Crd	Crd O%	Fls	Fls O%	Tot	Att	Mid	Def	Att/g	Def/g	Poss%
1	Otrant-Olympic	36	74	64%	2.1	81	31	+50	3.1	78%	58%	33%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	1	0	0	0	2.2	0.9	-
2	Grbalj	36	67	58%	1.9	63	42	+21	2.9	86%	53%	31%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.8	1.2	-
3	Iskra (Montenegro)	36	64	47%	1.8	51	34	+17	2.4	64%	42%	33%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.4	0.9	-
4	Rudar (Montenegro)	38	51	37%	1.3	54	49	+5	2.7	71%	53%	32%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.4	1.3	-
5	Berane	36	50	33%	1.4	45	36	+9	2.2	72%	36%	28%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.2	1.0	-
6	Kom	36	50	42%	1.4	47	43	+4	2.5	67%	42%	28%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.3	1.2	-
7	Lovćen	36	48	39%	1.3	34	45	-11	2.2	56%	36%	17%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.9	1.2	-
8	Mladost Lješkopolje	36	47	36%	1.3	39	46	-7	2.4	53%	42%	31%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	2	0	0	0	1.1	1.3	-
9	Igalo	38	34	21%	0.9	22	59	-37	2.1	63%	34%	24%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.6	1.6	-
10	Internacional Podgorica	36	23	14%	0.6	31	76	-45	3.0	86%	56%	33%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.9	2.1	-
11	Zeta	2	2	0%	1.0	1	1	+0	1.0	50%	0%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.5	0.5	-
12	Brskovo	2	0	0%	0.0	1	7	-6	4.0	100%	100%	50%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.5	3.5	-

Montenegro: Second League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: Second League stats & trends →

← all matches

Otrant-Olympic vs Grbalj Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Otrant-Olympic

Grbalj

Total goals distribution

Correct score

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

⚔️ Attack

🛡️ Defense

⏱️ Possession

🎲 4. Props Analysis

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

🔥 6. Top picks for this game

💰 7. Squad value

💰 Total value

⚔️ Attack

🧠 Midfield

🛡️ Defence

🤝 8. Games History

Head-to-head

Otrant-Olympic

Grbalj

📊 9. Overall Statistics

🏆 10. League Table

A Pro feature