Oviedo's recent form note is coming off a draw, having played out a 0-0 result against Granada CF. However, their defensive numbers at home are impressive, conceding an average of 0.27 goals per game against similar opponents.
The Pythia prediction model is favouring a home win for Oviedo, with a 41% chance of success, closely followed by a 37% probability of a draw. Meanwhile, Leganes has a 21% chance of taking the three points. The expected total goals in this match is a low 1.6, with the most likely score being a 0-0 draw, occurring 30% of the time.
Oviedo's home scoring has been limited, averaging 0.36 goals per game, while they have a strong defensive record at home. Leganes, on the other hand, has struggled to score away from home, averaging just 1.0 goal per game against similar opponents, but their away form is marred by conceding an average of 1.77 goals per game.
The model's selections include Under 3.5 goals (92.4%), Over 21.5 fouls (79.8%), Under 2.5 goals (78.8%), Home or Draw (78.7%), Over 3.5 cards (74.2%), and BTTS No (70.4%).
Oviedo has a 41% chance of winning, a 37% chance of drawing, and a 21% chance of losing.
The upset came early as Leganes snatched a 1-0 win, overturning Oviedo’s recent string of defeats. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was assigned a 41 % chance, but the model’s call proved wrong. The model’s selections were all correct: Under 7.5 (100 %) hit, Under 6.5 (99.9 %) hit, Away under 3.5 goals (99.6 %) hit, Under 5.5 (99.4 %) hit, Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.1 %) hit, Home under 3.5 goals (98.3 %) hit, Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.3 %) hit, and Under 4.5 (97.7 %) hit. The final score of 0-1 confirms the away victory, a result that surprised the model’s expectations.
Oviedo| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 1.43 | 0.47 | 0.53 | 0.93 | 2.33 |
| vs Stronger (10) | 0.60 | 1.90 | 0.75 | 1.25 | 0.50 | 2.33 |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.75 | 1.20 | 0.36 | 0.27 | 1.22 | 2.33 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+2pp vs league) | |||||
Leganes| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.03 | 1.40 | 1.12 | 1.12 | 0.93 | 1.71 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (28) | 1.04 | 1.43 | 1.13 | 1.13 | 0.92 | 1.77 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (-5pp vs league) | |||||
| Leganes goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 22% | 11% | 3.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 19% | 13% | 3.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 9.6% | 5.9% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 3.1% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Oviedo
Leganes
Oviedo| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.2 | 9.1 | 9.3 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 25.1 | 23.7 | 26.4 |
| vs Stronger (14) | 9.9 | 9.4 | 10.4 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 20.6 | 20.7 | 20.4 |
| vs Similar (35) | 8.8 | 9.0 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 26.8 | 24.9 | 28.9 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 12.0 | - | 12.0 | 4.0 | - | 4.0 | 26.0 | - | 26.0 |
| % over line | 46% | 44% | 48% | 60% | 60% | 60% | 66% | 60% | 72% |
| % under line | 54% | 56% | 52% | 40% | 40% | 40% | 34% | 40% | 28% |
Leganes| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.5 | 10.0 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 26.2 | 27.3 | 25.2 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 9.3 | - | 9.3 | 5.3 | - | 5.3 | 22.3 | - | 22.3 |
| vs Similar (44) | 9.5 | 10.1 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 26.6 | 27.6 | 25.6 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 9.5 | 7.0 | 12.0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 1.5 | 23.5 | 21.0 | 26.0 |
| % over line | 48% | 52% | 44% | 78% | 79% | 77% | 86% | 83% | 88% |
| % under line | 52% | 48% | 56% | 22% | 21% | 23% | 14% | 17% | 12% |
Oviedo| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.33 | 0.60 | 0.20 | 0.27 | 0.47 | 0.93 |
| vs Stronger (10) | 0.10 | 0.70 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.45 | 0.55 | 0.18 | 0.27 | 0.78 | 0.89 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
Leganes| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.27 | 0.53 | 0.31 | 0.50 | 0.21 | 0.57 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (28) | 0.29 | 0.54 | 0.33 | 0.47 | 0.23 | 0.62 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
Oviedo| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.37 | 0.83 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.47 | 1.40 |
| vs Stronger (10) | 0.50 | 1.20 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.33 |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.30 | 0.65 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.44 | 1.44 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+22pp vs league) | |||||
Leganes| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.77 | 0.87 | 0.81 | 0.62 | 0.71 | 1.14 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (28) | 0.75 | 0.89 | 0.80 | 0.67 | 0.69 | 1.15 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+12pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 7.5 | 100.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 6.5 | 99.9% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | +2.2% | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 3.5 goals | 99.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 5.5 | 99.4% | 1.01 | 1.03 | 1.01 | 1.01 | 1.01 | 1.01 | +4.4% | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 2.5 HT goals | 99.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 3.5 goals | 98.3% | 1.03 | 1.05 | 1.04 | 1.03 | 1.03 | 1.03 | +7.1% | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 2.5 2H goals | 98.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 4.5 | 97.7% | 1.05 | 1.08 | 1.07 | 1.06 | 1.06 | 1.06 | +8.3% | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 2.5 goals | 97.5% | 1.03 | 1.04 | 1.03 | 1.03 | 1.03 | 1.02 | +5.1% | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 2.5 HT goals | 96.8% | 1.01 | 1.02 | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | +3.1% | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 2.5 2H goals | 95.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 1.5 HT goals | 94.3% | 1.03 | 1.04 | 1.03 | 1.02 | - | - | +3.0% | ✓ Hit |
| Home +2 handicap | 94.2% | 1.04 | 1.04 | - | - | - | - | +3.7% | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 2.5 goals | 92.6% | 1.17 | 1.20 | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.17 | 1.17 | +12.8% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 92.4% | 1.20 | 1.24 | 1.22 | 1.22 | 1.20 | 1.20 | +14.1% | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 1.5 2H goals | 91.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 2.5 HT goals | 89.9% | 1.04 | 1.08 | 1.06 | 1.06 | 1.05 | 1.03 | +0.6% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 19.5 fouls | 89.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 cards | 88.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 1.5 goals | 87.4% | 1.18 | 1.21 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | +8.6% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 2.5 2H goals | 85.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 1.5 HT goals | 84.6% | 1.11 | 1.14 | 1.12 | 1.12 | 1.09 | 1.09 | +1.5% | ✓ Hit |
| Away +2 handicap | 83.7% | 1.27 | 1.30 | 1.28 | 1.28 | 1.25 | 1.24 | +13.3% | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 1.5 2H goals | 79.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 79.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 11.5 corners | 79.2% | 1.25 | 1.30 | 1.25 | 1.24 | 1.23 | 1.22 | +6.2% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 2.5 | 78.8% | 1.59 | 1.65 | 1.65 | 1.64 | 1.61 | 1.58 | +19.5% | ✓ Hit |
| Home or Draw | 78.7% | 1.17 | 1.20 | 1.19 | 1.19 | 1.18 | 1.18 | -1.2% | ✗ Miss |
| Home +1 handicap | 78.7% | 1.18 | 1.20 | 1.19 | 1.18 | 1.17 | 1.15 | +4.1% | ✗ Miss |
| Over 0.5 2H goals | 76.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Home under 1.5 goals | 74.8% | 1.66 | 1.71 | 1.71 | 1.70 | 1.70 | 1.67 | +18.6% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 3.5 cards | 74.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| BTTS No | 70.4% | 1.69 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.73 | 1.73 | 1.73 | +15.5% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/01/24 | H | 1-0 | |
| 07/10/23 | A | 0-0 | |
| 18/03/23 | A | 0-1 | |
| 21/08/22 | H | 1-0 | |
| 10/04/22 | H | 1-0 | |
| 14/11/21 | A | 0-0 | |
| 14/03/21 | H | 1-3 | |
| 25/10/20 | A | 2-1 |
Oviedo| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 23/05/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 17/05/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 14/05/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 10/05/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 03/05/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 23/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 05/04/26 | H | 1-0 |
Leganes| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 31/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 24/05/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 18/05/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 10/05/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 01/05/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 0-4 | |
| 17/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 05/04/26 | A | 2-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Granada CF | 3 | 7 | 67% | 2.3 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 2.0 | 67% | 33% | 33% | 7.3 | 0% | 3.7 | 67% | 30.3 | 100% | 17 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 50% |
| 2 | Castellón | 3 | 7 | 67% | 2.3 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 1.3 | 33% | 33% | 0% | 9.0 | 33% | 5.7 | 100% | 28.7 | 67% | 21 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 55% |
| 3 | Leganes | 3 | 7 | 67% | 2.3 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 1.3 | 33% | 0% | 0% | 9.3 | 33% | 3.3 | 67% | 22.7 | 100% | 30 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 51% |
| 4 | Sporting Gijon | 3 | 7 | 67% | 2.3 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0.7 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7.3 | 0% | 4.0 | 67% | 27.0 | 100% | 28 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 46% |
| 5 | Mallorca | 3 | 6 | 67% | 2.0 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 2.3 | 100% | 33% | 0% | 6.7 | 0% | 4.3 | 100% | 22.7 | 67% | 48 | 23 | 9 | 16 | 1.7 | 0.7 | - |
| 6 | Tenerife | 3 | 6 | 67% | 2.0 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 2.0 | 33% | 33% | 33% | 9.0 | 67% | 3.0 | 33% | 25.0 | 100% | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | - |
| 7 | Las Palmas | 3 | 6 | 67% | 2.0 | 6 | 6 | +0 | 4.0 | 100% | 67% | 33% | 8.0 | 33% | 3.3 | 33% | 28.3 | 100% | 30 | 14 | 3 | 13 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 56% |
| 8 | Eibar | 3 | 6 | 67% | 2.0 | 3 | 3 | +0 | 2.0 | 33% | 33% | 33% | 9.3 | 67% | 3.3 | 33% | 21.0 | 33% | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 49% |
| 9 | Sabadell | 3 | 5 | 33% | 1.7 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0.3 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.0 | 0% | 6.0 | 100% | 24.7 | 100% | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0.3 | 0.0 | - |
| 10 | Girona | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 4.0 | 100% | 67% | 33% | 6.3 | 0% | 6.3 | 100% | 28.3 | 100% | 114 | 64 | 28 | 22 | 2.3 | 1.7 | - |
| 11 | Celta de Vigo II | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 3.0 | 67% | 67% | 33% | 7.0 | 0% | 5.7 | 100% | 28.3 | 67% | 8 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1.7 | 1.3 | - |
| 12 | Burgos | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 3.3 | 67% | 67% | 67% | 8.3 | 0% | 3.0 | 33% | 27.7 | 100% | 17 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 46% |
| 13 | Real Sociedad II | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 4 | 4 | +0 | 2.7 | 67% | 67% | 33% | 11.0 | 67% | 4.0 | 33% | 30.7 | 67% | 23 | 15 | 4 | 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 44% |
| 14 | Oviedo | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 1 | 1 | +0 | 0.7 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9.7 | 67% | 5.0 | 100% | 25.7 | 100% | 30 | 15 | 6 | 10 | 0.3 | 0.3 | - |
| 15 | FC Andorra | 3 | 3 | 33% | 1.0 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 4.3 | 67% | 67% | 67% | 6.3 | 0% | 4.0 | 67% | 25.0 | 67% | 15 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 61% |
| 16 | Almeria | 3 | 3 | 33% | 1.0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 1.7 | 33% | 33% | 0% | 11.3 | 67% | 4.3 | 67% | 22.0 | 67% | 54 | 38 | 4 | 11 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 52% |
| 17 | Cadiz | 3 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 3 | 3 | +0 | 2.0 | 67% | 33% | 33% | 7.3 | 0% | 5.3 | 67% | 25.0 | 67% | 27 | 11 | 3 | 12 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 46% |
| 18 | Cordoba | 3 | 3 | 33% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 4.0 | 100% | 100% | 67% | 7.3 | 0% | 5.0 | 67% | 32.3 | 100% | 16 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 58% |
| 19 | Valladolid | 3 | 1 | 0% | 0.3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 1.7 | 67% | 0% | 0% | 8.3 | 33% | 6.3 | 100% | 24.7 | 67% | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 50% |
| 20 | Eldense | 3 | 1 | 0% | 0.3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 2.7 | 67% | 67% | 33% | 9.3 | 33% | 2.0 | 33% | 18.0 | 33% | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0.7 | 2.0 | - |
| 21 | Albacete | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 2.3 | 67% | 67% | 0% | 11.0 | 67% | 4.0 | 33% | 21.3 | 67% | 18 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 42% |
| 22 | AD Ceuta FC | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 3.7 | 100% | 67% | 33% | 6.7 | 33% | 3.7 | 67% | 28.0 | 67% | 10 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0.3 | 3.3 | 51% |