This opponent (Derby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Derby
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
1.03
2.12
0.81
1.36
1.29
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (14)
1.29
1.36
1.57
1.00
1.00
1.71
vs Weaker (15)
2.33
0.73
2.56
0.67
2.00
0.83
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Oxford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.1%
Under 1.5
24.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
48.9%
@ 2.12+4.5%
Under 2.5
51.1%
@ 1.69-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
27.1%
Under 3.5
72.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
54.5%
No
45.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
0-1
8.9%
1-2
8.7%
0-0
8.4%
2-1
7.6%
1-0
7.6%
0-2
7.2%
2-0
5.4%
Oxford goals ↓
Derby goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.4%
8.9%
7.2%
3.4%
1.2%
1
7.6%
14%
8.7%
4.1%
1.4%
2
5.4%
7.6%
5.3%
2.5%
0.9%
3
2.2%
3.1%
2.2%
1.0%
0.4%
4
0.7%
0.9%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Oxford goals (down), columns = Derby goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Plymouth
2.20
Ipswich
2.13
Sheffield Weds
2.09
Barnsley
1.87
Bolton
1.76
Peterboro
1.67
Derby
1.65
Portsmouth
1.52
Wycombe
1.50
Lincoln
1.35
Charlton
1.35
Shrewsbury
1.28
Fleetwood Town
1.26
Exeter
1.22
Burton
1.22
Cheltenham
1.17
Bristol Rvs
1.15
Port Vale
1.07
Oxford
1.02
Cambridge
1.00
Milton Keynes Dons
0.98
Accrington
0.96
Morecambe
0.96
Forest Green
0.59
Oxford is 0.63 points worse than Derby in terms of average points per game (1.02 vs 1.65).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ipswich
2.20
Plymouth
1.78
Sheffield Weds
1.76
Barnsley
1.74
Peterboro
1.63
Charlton
1.52
Derby
1.46
Exeter
1.39
Bolton
1.35
Portsmouth
1.33
Wycombe
1.28
Bristol Rvs
1.26
Burton
1.24
Fleetwood Town
1.15
Shrewsbury
1.13
Oxford
1.07
Port Vale
1.04
Lincoln
1.02
Morecambe
1.02
Cheltenham
0.98
Milton Keynes Dons
0.96
Cambridge
0.89
Accrington
0.87
Forest Green
0.67
Oxford is 0.39 goals worse than Derby in terms of goals scored per game (1.07 vs 1.46).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ipswich
0.76
Bolton
0.78
Sheffield Weds
0.80
Derby
1.00
Lincoln
1.02
Barnsley
1.02
Plymouth
1.02
Portsmouth
1.09
Fleetwood Town
1.11
Wycombe
1.11
Peterboro
1.17
Oxford
1.22
Shrewsbury
1.33
Cheltenham
1.33
Charlton
1.43
Milton Keynes Dons
1.43
Cambridge
1.48
Exeter
1.48
Port Vale
1.54
Bristol Rvs
1.59
Accrington
1.67
Morecambe
1.70
Burton
1.72
Forest Green
1.93
Oxford is 0.22 goals worse than Derby in terms of goals conceded per game (1.22 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Ipswich
59%
Bolton
57%
Portsmouth
55%
Derby
55%
Plymouth
54%
Peterboro
54%
Charlton
54%
Oxford
53%
Sheffield Weds
53%
Milton Keynes Dons
53%
Port Vale
52%
Exeter
52%
Barnsley
49%
Fleetwood Town
49%
Accrington
47%
Forest Green
47%
Wycombe
46%
Cambridge
46%
Burton
45%
Cheltenham
43%
Lincoln
43%
Shrewsbury
42%
Morecambe
42%
Oxford is 1.4 percentage points worse than Derby in terms of average possession (53% vs 55%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Oxford
For 8.1 · Against 3.9 · Total 12.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.2 · Against 12.7 · Total 24.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Derby
For 5.6 · Against 3.8 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 2.4 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.0 · Against 10.0 · Total 20.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Oxford
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.9
9.9
4.2
4.0
4.3
23.7
24.3
23.2
vs Stronger (4)
10.8
8.7
17.0
2.5
2.3
3.0
21.8
24.0
15.0
vs Similar (24)
10.2
11.6
9.0
4.5
4.5
4.5
24.5
24.9
24.2
vs Weaker (22)
10.5
10.8
10.2
4.1
4.1
4.2
23.2
23.7
22.8
% over line
60%
67%
54%
62%
62%
62%
70%
62%
77%
% under line
40%
33%
46%
38%
38%
38%
30%
38%
23%
This opponent (Derby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Derby
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
9.8
10.4
3.9
4.2
3.6
20.2
20.8
19.5
vs Stronger (4)
13.2
14.0
12.5
4.5
4.5
4.5
20.8
19.0
22.5
vs Similar (29)
9.4
9.7
9.1
3.8
3.7
3.9
20.2
20.1
20.3
vs Weaker (17)
10.5
9.1
12.1
3.9
4.9
2.8
20.1
22.4
17.5
% over line
58%
58%
58%
54%
62%
46%
34%
46%
21%
% under line
42%
42%
42%
46%
38%
54%
66%
54%
79%
This opponent (Oxford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Burton
11.7
Exeter
11.4
Bristol Rvs
11.1
Wycombe
10.9
Ipswich
10.6
Morecambe
10.5
Shrewsbury
10.5
Forest Green
10.4
Portsmouth
10.4
Plymouth
10.4
Oxford
10.4
Charlton
10.3
Peterboro
10.3
Port Vale
10.3
Barnsley
10.2
Lincoln
10.1
Derby
10.1
Bolton
10.1
Accrington
10.0
Cambridge
9.9
Fleetwood Town
9.9
Sheffield Weds
9.3
Cheltenham
9.2
Milton Keynes Dons
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bristol Rvs
4.4
Accrington
4.4
Fleetwood Town
4.3
Forest Green
4.2
Oxford
4.2
Derby
3.9
Cambridge
3.7
Lincoln
3.7
Shrewsbury
3.7
Ipswich
3.7
Portsmouth
3.7
Peterboro
3.6
Bolton
3.5
Port Vale
3.5
Milton Keynes Dons
3.4
Cheltenham
3.4
Charlton
3.4
Sheffield Weds
3.4
Barnsley
3.3
Wycombe
3.2
Plymouth
3.1
Morecambe
3.1
Exeter
3.0
Burton
2.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Accrington
24.5
Portsmouth
24.4
Bristol Rvs
23.7
Oxford
23.7
Forest Green
23.6
Peterboro
22.9
Charlton
22.8
Fleetwood Town
22.8
Bolton
22.3
Barnsley
22.0
Milton Keynes Dons
22.0
Lincoln
21.9
Port Vale
21.8
Wycombe
21.6
Sheffield Weds
21.5
Ipswich
21.4
Plymouth
21.2
Shrewsbury
21.1
Burton
20.8
Cambridge
20.6
Cheltenham
20.5
Morecambe
20.4
Derby
20.2
Exeter
19.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
58.8%
Under 9.5
41.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
38.7%
Under 3.5
61.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
49.4%
Under 21.5
50.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Oxford
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.63
0.50
0.71
0.44
0.56
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (17)
0.65
0.59
0.62
0.75
0.67
0.44
vs Weaker (11)
0.18
0.55
0.20
0.60
0.17
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Derby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Derby
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.40
1.12
0.25
0.64
0.57
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (14)
0.50
0.57
0.57
0.29
0.43
0.86
vs Weaker (15)
1.33
0.27
1.56
0.22
1.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Oxford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Oxford over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oxford over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oxford over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derby over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derby over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derby over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Oxford
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.70
0.71
0.71
0.56
0.69
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (17)
0.59
0.71
0.75
0.75
0.44
0.67
vs Weaker (11)
0.73
0.73
0.60
0.80
0.83
0.67
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Derby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Derby
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.63
1.00
0.56
0.71
0.71
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.79
0.79
1.00
0.71
0.57
0.86
vs Weaker (15)
1.00
0.47
1.00
0.44
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Oxford) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Oxford over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oxford over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Oxford over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derby over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derby over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derby over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Oxford · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
G. O'Donkor67%
C. Brannagan33%
M. Harris0%
P. Kioso0%
Siriki Dembélé0%
Ciaron Brown0%
Tyler Goodrham0%
B. Spencer0%
Jamie McDonnell0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
M. Harris33%
C. Brannagan33%
P. Kioso0%
Siriki Dembélé0%
Ciaron Brown0%
Tyler Goodrham0%
B. Spencer0%
G. O'Donkor0%
Jamie McDonnell0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
M. Harris0%
P. Kioso0%
Siriki Dembélé0%
C. Brannagan0%
Ciaron Brown0%
Tyler Goodrham0%
B. Spencer0%
G. O'Donkor0%
Jamie McDonnell0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
M. Harris0%
P. Kioso0%
Siriki Dembélé0%
C. Brannagan0%
Ciaron Brown0%
Tyler Goodrham0%
B. Spencer0%
G. O'Donkor0%
Jamie McDonnell0%
Derby · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
S. Szmodics75%
Carlton Morris33%
L. Salvesen20%
Bobby Clark20%
Rhian Brewster0%
C. Taylor0%
Craig Forsyth0%
Lewis Travis0%
A. Mowatt0%
Ryan Hedges0%
J. Ward0%
Corey Blackett-Taylor0%
J. Widell Zetterström0%
D. Sanderson0%
Filip Bilbija0%
Oscar Fraulo0%
Sondre Langås0%
M. Johnston0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lewis Travis75%
Sondre Langås60%
D. Sanderson40%
Rhian Brewster25%
A. Mowatt25%
Corey Blackett-Taylor25%
Oscar Fraulo25%
C. Taylor20%
M. Johnston20%
L. Salvesen0%
S. Szmodics0%
Carlton Morris0%
Craig Forsyth0%
Ryan Hedges0%
J. Ward0%
J. Widell Zetterström0%
Filip Bilbija0%
Bobby Clark0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Bobby Clark40%
Carlton Morris33%
Oscar Fraulo25%
Rhian Brewster0%
L. Salvesen0%
S. Szmodics0%
C. Taylor0%
Craig Forsyth0%
Lewis Travis0%
A. Mowatt0%
Ryan Hedges0%
J. Ward0%
Corey Blackett-Taylor0%
J. Widell Zetterström0%
D. Sanderson0%
Filip Bilbija0%
Sondre Langås0%
M. Johnston0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
S. Szmodics25%
Corey Blackett-Taylor25%
L. Salvesen20%
Bobby Clark20%
Rhian Brewster0%
C. Taylor0%
Carlton Morris0%
Craig Forsyth0%
Lewis Travis0%
A. Mowatt0%
Ryan Hedges0%
J. Ward0%
J. Widell Zetterström0%
D. Sanderson0%
Filip Bilbija0%
Oscar Fraulo0%
Sondre Langås0%
M. Johnston0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IPS (31)
€280m
DER (25)
€57m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
SHW (24)
€21m
OXF (24)
€20m
BOL (22)
€17m
MKD (24)
€15m
PLY (25)
€13m
LIN (24)
€12m
WYC (24)
€10m
BAR (21)
€8m
PET (23)
€7m
PV (23)
€7m
BR (24)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
SHR (17)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
FG (4)
€1m
MOR (1)
€0m
Oxford's squad is €37m less valuable than Derby's (€20m vs €57m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IPS (11)
€130m
DER (8)
€25m
CHA (13)
€18m
POR (12)
€13m
SHW (6)
€7m
OXF (8)
€6m
MKD (8)
€5m
PLY (8)
€4m
BOL (6)
€4m
LIN (7)
€3m
PET (8)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
BR (10)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
BUR (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
SHR (3)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
MOR (0)
€0m
Oxford's attack is €19m less valuable than Derby's (€6m vs €25m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IPS (7)
€66m
DER (6)
€14m
MKD (6)
€7m
SHW (5)
€6m
OXF (4)
€6m
POR (5)
€5m
BOL (4)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
BAR (7)
€3m
PLY (6)
€3m
WYC (5)
€2m
PV (7)
€2m
LIN (4)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
BR (4)
€0m
MOR (1)
€0m
FG (0)
€0m
Oxford's midfield is €8m less valuable than Derby's (€6m vs €14m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IPS (13)
€85m
DER (11)
€18m
POR (13)
€14m
CHA (13)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
OXF (12)
€8m
SHW (13)
€8m
LIN (13)
€6m
PLY (11)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
BAR (9)
€3m
PV (11)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
CAM (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
FG (2)
€0m
MOR (0)
€0m
Oxford's defence is €10m less valuable than Derby's (€8m vs €18m).
England: League One 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League One stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Plymouth
Ipswich
Sheffield Weds
Barnsley
Bolton
Peterboro
Portsmouth
Wycombe
Charlton
Lincoln
Shrewsbury
Fleetwood Town
Exeter
Burton
Cheltenham
Bristol Rvs
Port Vale
Cambridge
Milton Keynes Dons
Morecambe
Accrington
Forest Green