This opponent (Farense) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Farense
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.89
1.33
1.07
1.21
0.69
1.46
vs Stronger (10)
0.80
1.40
0.80
1.40
0.80
1.40
vs Similar (12)
0.83
1.50
1.17
1.17
0.50
1.83
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
0.80
1.33
1.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
11% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Pacos Ferreira) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.4%
Under 1.5
31.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
40.6%
@ 2.31-0.5%
Under 2.5
59.4%
@ 1.61+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.2%
Under 3.5
79.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
46.3%
No
53.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%
1-0
12.6%
0-0
11.2%
2-0
9.7%
2-1
8.8%
0-1
7.8%
1-2
5.8%
3-0
4.5%
Pacos Ferreira goals ↓
Farense goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
7.8%
4.2%
1.3%
0.3%
1
13%
14%
5.8%
1.8%
0.4%
2
9.7%
8.8%
4.0%
1.2%
0.3%
3
4.5%
4.1%
1.9%
0.6%
0.1%
4
1.6%
1.4%
0.7%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Pacos Ferreira goals (down), columns = Farense goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sporting CP
2.50
FC Porto
2.35
Benfica
2.24
SC Braga
1.88
Pacos Ferreira
1.56
Santa Clara
1.35
Moreirense
1.26
Guimaraes
1.26
Famalicao
1.18
Belenenses
1.18
GIL Vicente
1.15
Tondela
1.06
Boavista
1.06
Portimonense
1.03
Maritimo
1.03
Rio Ave
1.00
Farense
0.91
Nacional
0.74
Pacos Ferreira is 0.65 points better than Farense in terms of average points per game (1.56 vs 0.91).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Porto
2.18
Benfica
2.03
Sporting CP
1.91
SC Braga
1.56
Santa Clara
1.29
Famalicao
1.18
Pacos Ferreira
1.18
Boavista
1.15
Moreirense
1.09
Guimaraes
1.09
Tondela
1.06
Portimonense
1.00
GIL Vicente
0.97
Farense
0.91
Nacional
0.88
Maritimo
0.79
Rio Ave
0.74
Belenenses
0.74
Pacos Ferreira is 0.26 goals better than Farense in terms of goals scored per game (1.18 vs 0.91).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sporting CP
0.59
Benfica
0.79
FC Porto
0.85
SC Braga
0.97
Belenenses
1.03
Santa Clara
1.06
Rio Ave
1.18
Portimonense
1.21
Pacos Ferreira
1.21
GIL Vicente
1.24
Moreirense
1.26
Guimaraes
1.29
Maritimo
1.38
Famalicao
1.41
Farense
1.41
Boavista
1.44
Tondela
1.68
Nacional
1.74
Pacos Ferreira is 0.21 goals better than Farense in terms of goals conceded per game (1.21 vs 1.41).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Pacos Ferreira
For 4.7 · Against 5.0 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.3 · Against 13.3 · Total 26.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Farense
For 6.6 · Against 5.7 · Total 12.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.9 · Against 16.0 · Total 32.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Pacos Ferreira
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
8.9
10.0
5.1
5.0
5.2
33.5
31.9
34.9
vs Stronger (32)
9.3
8.9
9.7
5.2
4.6
5.8
33.3
30.8
35.8
vs Similar (18)
9.7
8.8
10.5
4.9
5.6
4.3
33.8
34.1
33.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
42%
33%
50%
72%
67%
77%
92%
92%
92%
% under line
58%
67%
50%
28%
33%
23%
8%
8%
8%
This opponent (Farense) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Farense
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (27)
11.2
11.4
11.0
5.6
5.2
6.0
33.3
32.6
34.1
vs Stronger (10)
10.7
12.4
9.0
5.1
3.0
7.2
32.0
30.0
34.0
vs Similar (12)
11.7
11.7
11.7
6.2
6.5
5.8
32.8
32.0
33.7
vs Weaker (5)
11.2
9.3
14.0
5.2
6.3
3.5
37.2
38.3
35.5
% over line
67%
64%
69%
81%
71%
92%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
33%
36%
31%
19%
29%
8%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Pacos Ferreira) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Farense
11.2
Nacional
10.9
Guimaraes
10.4
Santa Clara
10.3
Belenenses
10.3
Benfica
10.1
Boavista
10.1
SC Braga
9.9
GIL Vicente
9.7
Sporting CP
9.5
Rio Ave
9.5
Pacos Ferreira
9.5
Famalicao
9.4
Portimonense
9.4
Tondela
9.4
Moreirense
9.3
Maritimo
9.2
FC Porto
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Famalicao
6.4
Maritimo
5.7
Farense
5.6
Sporting CP
5.6
FC Porto
5.4
Belenenses
5.3
SC Braga
5.3
Boavista
5.3
Nacional
5.2
Moreirense
5.2
Pacos Ferreira
5.1
Santa Clara
4.9
Tondela
4.9
Portimonense
4.7
Benfica
4.7
Rio Ave
4.6
Guimaraes
4.4
GIL Vicente
4.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Maritimo
35.5
Boavista
34.9
Pacos Ferreira
33.5
Farense
33.3
Santa Clara
32.9
Sporting CP
32.6
FC Porto
32.4
Famalicao
32.3
Portimonense
32.3
Nacional
31.9
Moreirense
31.7
Guimaraes
31.4
GIL Vicente
31.4
Tondela
31.4
Rio Ave
31.2
Belenenses
31.2
SC Braga
30.7
Benfica
29.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
52.3%
Under 9.5
47.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
75.6%
Under 3.5
24.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
97.6%
Under 21.5
2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Pacos Ferreira
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.53
1.00
0.50
0.56
0.56
vs Stronger (20)
0.75
0.65
1.00
0.67
0.55
0.64
vs Similar (10)
0.80
0.30
1.00
0.20
0.60
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Farense) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Farense
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.48
0.57
0.50
0.15
0.46
vs Stronger (10)
0.40
0.60
0.60
0.60
0.20
0.60
vs Similar (12)
0.33
0.50
0.67
0.50
0.00
0.50
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
0.20
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
56% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Pacos Ferreira) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Pacos Ferreira over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pacos Ferreira over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pacos Ferreira over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Farense over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Farense over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Farense over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Pacos Ferreira
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.70
0.64
0.57
0.44
0.81
vs Stronger (20)
0.50
0.80
0.78
0.56
0.27
1.00
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.50
0.40
0.60
0.80
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Farense) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Farense
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.52
0.85
0.50
0.71
0.54
1.00
vs Stronger (10)
0.40
0.80
0.20
0.80
0.60
0.80
vs Similar (12)
0.50
1.00
0.50
0.67
0.50
1.33
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
0.60
1.00
0.67
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Pacos Ferreira) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Pacos Ferreira over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pacos Ferreira over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pacos Ferreira over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Farense over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Farense over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Farense over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 23.5 fouls
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 25.5 fouls
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Pacos Ferreira · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Costinha50%
Joao Victor25%
David Costa14%
Vladimir Silva14%
Anilson10%
Ronaldo Lumungo9%
Nuno Cunha9%
Miguel Mota8%
Francisco Ramos0%
Gonçalo Cardoso0%
Andre Sousa0%
Rafael Vieira0%
Tiago Ferreira0%
Leandro Dias0%
João Pinto0%
Kauan0%
Diegão0%
Miguel Falé0%
Pedro Rafael Oliveira0%
Fernando Gomes0%
Iuri Moreira0%
Diego Fernandes0%
Fernandinho Conceição0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Fernandinho Conceição67%
Gonçalo Cardoso50%
Kauan50%
Costinha50%
Miguel Falé33%
Iuri Moreira33%
Miguel Mota25%
Fernando Gomes25%
Diegão20%
Anilson20%
Rafael Vieira18%
Ronaldo Lumungo18%
Nuno Cunha18%
Leandro Dias17%
Tiago Ferreira10%
Francisco Ramos8%
Joao Victor8%
Andre Sousa0%
João Pinto0%
Pedro Rafael Oliveira0%
Diego Fernandes0%
David Costa0%
Vladimir Silva0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
David Costa14%
Vladimir Silva14%
Andre Sousa10%
Anilson10%
Ronaldo Lumungo9%
Francisco Ramos8%
Joao Victor8%
Gonçalo Cardoso0%
Rafael Vieira0%
Tiago Ferreira0%
Leandro Dias0%
João Pinto0%
Kauan0%
Diegão0%
Miguel Falé0%
Costinha0%
Nuno Cunha0%
Pedro Rafael Oliveira0%
Miguel Mota0%
Fernando Gomes0%
Iuri Moreira0%
Diego Fernandes0%
Fernandinho Conceição0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Miguel Falé50%
Francisco Ramos8%
Joao Victor8%
Gonçalo Cardoso0%
Andre Sousa0%
Rafael Vieira0%
Tiago Ferreira0%
Leandro Dias0%
João Pinto0%
Kauan0%
Diegão0%
Anilson0%
Ronaldo Lumungo0%
Costinha0%
Nuno Cunha0%
Pedro Rafael Oliveira0%
Miguel Mota0%
Fernando Gomes0%
Iuri Moreira0%
Diego Fernandes0%
Fernandinho Conceição0%
David Costa0%
Vladimir Silva0%
Farense · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Claudio Falcão25%
Anthony Carter25%
Marco Matias14%
Derick Poloni14%
André Candeias12%
Diego Dorregaray0%
Rúben Fernandes0%
Alex Pinto0%
Rui Costa0%
Nikola Gjorgjev0%
Franco Romero0%
Jaime Pinto0%
Darío Poveda0%
Bruno Almeida0%
Yannick Semedo0%
Brian Araújo0%
Toni Herrero0%
Assane Ndiaye Dione0%
Fran Delgado0%
Balla Sangaré0%
Miguel Menino0%
Dário Miranda0%
Alysson Silva0%
Rafinha0%
Lucas D'Agrella0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Claudio Falcão75%
Alysson Silva67%
Franco Romero60%
Alex Pinto50%
André Candeias38%
Fran Delgado33%
Miguel Menino29%
Anthony Carter25%
Yannick Semedo25%
Brian Araújo25%
Rafinha25%
Lucas D'Agrella17%
Marco Matias14%
Jaime Pinto14%
Balla Sangaré12%
Rúben Fernandes11%
Diego Dorregaray0%
Rui Costa0%
Derick Poloni0%
Nikola Gjorgjev0%
Darío Poveda0%
Bruno Almeida0%
Toni Herrero0%
Assane Ndiaye Dione0%
Dário Miranda0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Toni Herrero20%
Derick Poloni14%
Bruno Almeida12%
Diego Dorregaray0%
Marco Matias0%
Claudio Falcão0%
Rúben Fernandes0%
Alex Pinto0%
Anthony Carter0%
Rui Costa0%
Nikola Gjorgjev0%
Franco Romero0%
Jaime Pinto0%
Darío Poveda0%
Yannick Semedo0%
Brian Araújo0%
Assane Ndiaye Dione0%
Fran Delgado0%
Balla Sangaré0%
Miguel Menino0%
Dário Miranda0%
André Candeias0%
Alysson Silva0%
Rafinha0%
Lucas D'Agrella0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Claudio Falcão38%
Marco Matias14%
Balla Sangaré12%
Diego Dorregaray0%
Rúben Fernandes0%
Alex Pinto0%
Anthony Carter0%
Rui Costa0%
Derick Poloni0%
Nikola Gjorgjev0%
Franco Romero0%
Jaime Pinto0%
Darío Poveda0%
Bruno Almeida0%
Yannick Semedo0%
Brian Araújo0%
Toni Herrero0%
Assane Ndiaye Dione0%
Fran Delgado0%
Miguel Menino0%
Dário Miranda0%
André Candeias0%
Alysson Silva0%
Rafinha0%
Lucas D'Agrella0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (30)
€467m
SC (31)
€414m
BEN (25)
€357m
SB (32)
€165m
FAM (23)
€57m
GUI (29)
€46m
RA (26)
€37m
GV (28)
€29m
SC (28)
€27m
MOR (21)
€22m
NAC (31)
€20m
MAR (27)
€16m
TON (20)
€10m
FAR (24)
€8m
POR (20)
€6m
PF (13)
€2m
Pacos Ferreira's squad is €6m less valuable than Farense's (€2m vs €8m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (11)
€214m
BEN (10)
€172m
SC (9)
€146m
SB (7)
€41m
GUI (10)
€22m
FAM (8)
€16m
GV (12)
€11m
SC (11)
€9m
RA (8)
€8m
MAR (10)
€7m
NAC (12)
€6m
MOR (5)
€5m
FAR (10)
€3m
TON (7)
€2m
POR (7)
€2m
PF (3)
€1m
Pacos Ferreira's attack is €3m less valuable than Farense's (€1m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FP (6)
€105m
SC (9)
€91m
BEN (5)
€77m
SB (10)
€56m
FAM (6)
€20m
GUI (6)
€11m
MOR (8)
€8m
RA (5)
€8m
GV (6)
€8m
SC (5)
€6m
NAC (8)
€5m
MAR (6)
€3m
FAR (3)
€2m
TON (4)
€1m
POR (5)
€1m
PF (2)
€0m
Pacos Ferreira's midfield is €1m less valuable than Farense's (€0m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SC (13)
€176m
FP (13)
€148m
BEN (10)
€108m
SB (15)
€68m
FAM (9)
€22m
RA (13)
€21m
SC (12)
€12m
GUI (13)
€12m
GV (10)
€11m
MOR (8)
€9m
NAC (11)
€9m
TON (9)
€6m
MAR (11)
€6m
FAR (11)
€4m
POR (8)
€3m
PF (8)
€1m
Pacos Ferreira's defence is €3m less valuable than Farense's (€1m vs €4m).
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2020/21 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
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Sporting CP
FC Porto
Benfica
SC Braga
Santa Clara
Moreirense
Guimaraes
Famalicao
Belenenses
GIL Vicente
Boavista
Tondela
Portimonense
Maritimo
Rio Ave
Nacional