Paks is expected to emerge victorious, with their recent form a storyline worth watching. The team is coming off a defeat, having lost 2-5 to Zalaegerszegi TE in their last match. Budapest Honved, their opponents, are also in a similar situation, having drawn 3-3 against MTK Budapest in their last outing.
The model predicts a 56% chance of a home win, a 25% chance of a draw, and an 19% chance of an away win. The expected total number of goals is 2.8, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 11.9%.
Paks have been scoring an average of 2.58 goals at home and conceding 1.75 goals, while Budapest Honved have been scoring 1.0 goal away from home and conceding 1.0 goal. The model's selection is Over 1.5, with a probability of 78.3%.
Results analysis
In a stunning turn of events, Budapest Honved came from behind to secure a 2-2 draw against Paks at home, extending their run of consecutive draws to three. This result marks a major upset, as Paks were the pre-match favourites with a 56% chance of winning. However, the model's selection, Home win, was incorrect. Meanwhile, the model's suggested pick of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a probability of 78.3%. The most likely total goals was 2, with a 25% probability. The other suggested picks, including a draw, missed, with a probability of 25%, and a Budapest Honved win, missed, with a probability of 19%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Paks win✗ Miss
56.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
24.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Budapest Honved win✗ Miss
19.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Paks
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.67
2.43
2.00
1.31
1.38
vs Stronger (5)
1.60
1.80
2.00
1.50
1.33
2.00
vs Similar (23)
1.74
1.74
2.27
2.18
1.25
1.33
vs Weaker (2)
3.50
0.50
5.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Budapest Honved) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Budapest Honved
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
0.93
1.88
0.94
1.15
0.92
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (29)
1.55
0.97
1.88
1.00
1.15
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Paks) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.3%
Under 1.5
21.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
53.4%
Under 2.5
46.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
31.2%
Under 3.5
68.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.8%
No
46.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.9%
2-0
10.0%
2-1
9.9%
1-0
9.9%
0-0
7.1%
3-0
6.1%
3-1
6.0%
1-2
5.3%
Paks goals ↓
Budapest Honved goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.1%
4.8%
2.9%
1.0%
0.2%
1
9.9%
12%
5.3%
1.8%
0.4%
2
10.0%
9.9%
4.9%
1.6%
0.4%
3
6.1%
6.0%
3.0%
1.0%
0.2%
4
2.8%
2.7%
1.4%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Paks goals (down), columns = Budapest Honved goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ferencvarosi TC
2.00
Puskas Academy
2.00
Ujpest
1.67
Gyori ETO FC
1.50
MTK Budapest
1.50
Paks
1.33
Vasas
1.33
Budapest Honved
1.20
Nyiregyhaza
1.17
Kisvarda FC
1.00
Debreceni VSC
1.00
Zalaegerszegi TE
0.50
Paks is 0.13 points better than Budapest Honved in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.20).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Paks
2.17
Ujpest
2.17
MTK Budapest
2.17
Gyori ETO FC
1.83
Vasas
1.67
Puskas Academy
1.67
Ferencvarosi TC
1.60
Budapest Honved
1.60
Kisvarda FC
1.17
Debreceni VSC
1.00
Nyiregyhaza
1.00
Zalaegerszegi TE
0.83
Paks is 0.57 goals better than Budapest Honved in terms of goals scored per game (2.17 vs 1.60).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ferencvarosi TC
1.00
Gyori ETO FC
1.17
Vasas
1.17
Kisvarda FC
1.33
Puskas Academy
1.33
Debreceni VSC
1.50
Budapest Honved
1.60
Ujpest
1.67
MTK Budapest
1.67
Nyiregyhaza
1.67
Paks
2.17
Zalaegerszegi TE
2.50
Paks is 0.57 goals worse than Budapest Honved in terms of goals conceded per game (2.17 vs 1.60).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Ferencvarosi TC
58%
Debreceni VSC
55%
Gyori ETO FC
53%
Budapest Honved
52%
Ujpest
51%
Nyiregyhaza
51%
Paks
50%
MTK Budapest
50%
Zalaegerszegi TE
49%
Puskas Academy
45%
Vasas
43%
Kisvarda FC
42%
Paks is 2.0 percentage points worse than Budapest Honved in terms of average possession (50% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Paks
For 6.1 · Against 5.0 · Total 11.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 2.5 · Total 5.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.2 · Against 13.4 · Total 26.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Budapest Honved
For 5.5 · Against 2.0 · Total 7.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.0 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.5 · Against 12.5 · Total 23.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Paks
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
10.7
10.6
3.9
4.3
3.6
28.8
29.1
28.5
vs Stronger (9)
11.5
11.0
12.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
29.9
31.8
28.0
vs Similar (38)
10.3
10.6
10.1
3.9
4.6
3.4
28.4
28.2
28.6
vs Weaker (3)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
62%
56%
67%
56%
57%
56%
85%
75%
94%
% under line
38%
44%
33%
44%
43%
44%
15%
25%
6%
This opponent (Budapest Honved) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Budapest Honved
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
7.5
7.0
8.0
0.1
0.2
0.1
23.0
28.0
18.0
vs Stronger (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (49)
7.5
7.0
8.0
0.1
0.2
0.1
23.0
28.0
18.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
0%
0%
0%
2%
4%
0%
50%
100%
0%
% under line
100%
100%
100%
98%
96%
100%
50%
0%
100%
This opponent (Paks) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Paks
10.6
Ujpest
10.0
Puskas Academy
9.7
Debreceni VSC
9.7
Kisvarda FC
9.6
Ferencvarosi TC
9.6
MTK Budapest
9.6
Budapest Honved
9.5
Zalaegerszegi TE
9.2
Gyori ETO FC
9.2
Vasas
5.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Zalaegerszegi TE
5.2
Debreceni VSC
5.1
Paks
5.1
Vasas
5.0
Ujpest
5.0
Puskas Academy
4.9
Gyori ETO FC
4.6
Ferencvarosi TC
4.6
Budapest Honved
4.4
MTK Budapest
4.3
Kisvarda FC
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Paks
28.6
Debreceni VSC
28.1
Ferencvarosi TC
27.5
Puskas Academy
27.5
Ujpest
26.1
Zalaegerszegi TE
25.2
MTK Budapest
24.8
Gyori ETO FC
24.6
Kisvarda FC
24.0
Budapest Honved
23.0
Vasas
21.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
49.6%
Under 9.5
50.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
70.2%
Under 3.5
29.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
83.7%
Under 21.5
16.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Paks
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.73
1.00
0.93
0.75
0.56
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.87
0.74
1.00
1.00
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Budapest Honved) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Budapest Honved
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.37
0.88
0.41
0.38
0.31
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.69
0.38
0.94
0.44
0.38
0.31
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Paks) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Paks over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paks over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paks over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Budapest Honved over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Budapest Honved over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Budapest Honved over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Paks
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.93
1.43
1.07
0.56
0.81
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
0.80
1.00
0.50
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.87
1.00
1.27
1.18
0.50
0.83
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
0.50
4.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Budapest Honved) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Budapest Honved
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.57
1.00
0.53
0.77
0.62
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.86
0.59
0.94
0.56
0.77
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Paks) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Paks over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paks over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Paks over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Budapest Honved over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Budapest Honved over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Budapest Honved over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Paks
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
József Szalai83%
M. Pető43%
J. Windecker33%
Zsolt Haraszti20%
Andor Lapu20%
Milán Győrfi17%
Á. Kovácsik0%
Gabor Vas0%
B. Tóth0%
Dániel Böde0%
E. Silye0%
B. Balogh0%
B. Lenzsér0%
J. Szabó0%
J. Hahn0%
Kristóf Papp0%
B. Vécsei0%
Márió Zeke0%
Gergő Gyurkits0%
Milán Szekszárdi0%
K. Horváth0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
J. Windecker50%
K. Horváth43%
B. Lenzsér40%
J. Szabó40%
Kristóf Papp29%
J. Hahn25%
Andor Lapu20%
Milán Győrfi17%
M. Pető14%
Á. Kovácsik0%
Gabor Vas0%
B. Tóth0%
Dániel Böde0%
E. Silye0%
B. Balogh0%
Zsolt Haraszti0%
B. Vécsei0%
Márió Zeke0%
József Szalai0%
Gergő Gyurkits0%
Milán Szekszárdi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Zsolt Haraszti40%
Andor Lapu40%
B. Vécsei33%
Kristóf Papp29%
József Szalai17%
K. Horváth14%
Á. Kovácsik0%
Gabor Vas0%
B. Tóth0%
Dániel Böde0%
E. Silye0%
B. Balogh0%
B. Lenzsér0%
J. Szabó0%
J. Hahn0%
J. Windecker0%
Márió Zeke0%
Gergő Gyurkits0%
Milán Szekszárdi0%
M. Pető0%
Milán Győrfi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
József Szalai50%
M. Pető43%
Dániel Böde25%
J. Hahn25%
Á. Kovácsik0%
Gabor Vas0%
B. Tóth0%
E. Silye0%
B. Balogh0%
B. Lenzsér0%
J. Szabó0%
Zsolt Haraszti0%
Kristóf Papp0%
J. Windecker0%
B. Vécsei0%
Márió Zeke0%
Gergő Gyurkits0%
Milán Szekszárdi0%
Andor Lapu0%
K. Horváth0%
Milán Győrfi0%
Budapest Honved
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Dominik Csontos50%
Ádam Szamosi50%
Ákos Baki33%
Tamás Somogyi25%
Ádam Somogyi25%
Szilveszter Hangya0%
Zoltán Medgyes0%
Deian Boldor0%
Patrik Pinte0%
Adi Alić0%
Istvan Mark Pekar0%
Ákos Zuigéber0%
Kevin Kállai0%
Tomáš Tujvel0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Deian Boldor50%
Szilveszter Hangya25%
Dominik Csontos25%
Kevin Kállai25%
Zoltán Medgyes0%
Ákos Baki0%
Patrik Pinte0%
Adi Alić0%
Istvan Mark Pekar0%
Tamás Somogyi0%
Ádam Somogyi0%
Ádam Szamosi0%
Ákos Zuigéber0%
Tomáš Tujvel0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dominik Csontos50%
Tamás Somogyi25%
Ákos Zuigéber25%
Szilveszter Hangya0%
Zoltán Medgyes0%
Ákos Baki0%
Deian Boldor0%
Patrik Pinte0%
Adi Alić0%
Istvan Mark Pekar0%
Ádam Somogyi0%
Ádam Szamosi0%
Kevin Kállai0%
Tomáš Tujvel0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ádam Szamosi50%
Deian Boldor25%
Tamás Somogyi25%
Ákos Zuigéber25%
Szilveszter Hangya0%
Zoltán Medgyes0%
Ákos Baki0%
Patrik Pinte0%
Dominik Csontos0%
Adi Alić0%
Istvan Mark Pekar0%
Ádam Somogyi0%
Kevin Kállai0%
Tomáš Tujvel0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (40)
€40m
GEF (28)
€16m
UJP (29)
€14m
PA (27)
€11m
MB (23)
€11m
DV (27)
€9m
PAK (29)
€8m
NYI (29)
€7m
VAS (28)
€7m
KF (25)
€6m
ZT (23)
€5m
BH (25)
€5m
Paks's squad is €3m more valuable than Budapest Honved's (€8m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (18)
€24m
GEF (10)
€7m
UJP (7)
€5m
PA (12)
€5m
NYI (13)
€3m
VAS (11)
€3m
PAK (9)
€3m
DV (10)
€2m
KF (8)
€2m
MB (9)
€2m
ZT (8)
€2m
BH (6)
€1m
Paks's attack is €2m more valuable than Budapest Honved's (€3m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (9)
€8m
MB (4)
€4m
GEF (6)
€4m
UJP (8)
€3m
PA (5)
€2m
VAS (7)
€2m
PAK (6)
€2m
KF (7)
€2m
DV (5)
€2m
ZT (5)
€1m
NYI (5)
€1m
BH (5)
€1m
Paks and Budapest Honved have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (13)
€9m
UJP (14)
€5m
GEF (12)
€5m
MB (10)
€5m
DV (12)
€4m
PA (10)
€4m
PAK (14)
€4m
NYI (11)
€3m
BH (14)
€3m
KF (10)
€2m
ZT (10)
€2m
VAS (10)
€2m
Paks and Budapest Honved have a similar defence value (both €4m).
Hungary: NB I 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Hungary: NB I stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Puskas Academy
Ujpest
Ferencvarosi TC
Gyori ETO FC
MTK Budapest
Vasas
Nyiregyhaza
Kisvarda FC
Debreceni VSC
Zalaegerszegi TE