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Panevėžys II vs Kauno Žalgiris II Result & Analysis

Date: 27/10/2023
Time: 15:00
Final 0-1
Panevėžys II
Panevėžys II
Vs
51%
28%
21%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Kauno Žalgiris II
Kauno Žalgiris II
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Panevėžys II win✗ Miss
51.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II win✓ Hit
21.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Panevėžys IIPanevėžys II

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-601L13L20W22D41W16L11D14L30W01LH·ŠIL14/08A·BE120/08H·NEV28/08A·NEP06/09H·JON17/09A·TRA24/09H·TRA02/10A·MIN07/10H·FA 11/10A·GAR20/10
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.331.971.201.601.472.33
vs Stronger (9)0.783.110.402.401.254.00
vs Similar (8)1.750.752.000.501.501.00
vs Weaker (13)1.461.921.331.671.572.14
Clean sheet %17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Kauno Žalgiris IIKauno Žalgiris II

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L20W01L11D03L30W22D01L00D31WA·TRA12/08H·BFA21/08A·TRA27/08H·BAB31/08A·MIN15/09H·ŠIL25/09A·FA 02/10H·BE108/10A·GAR13/10H·NEV22/10
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.151.591.711.570.541.62
vs Stronger (23)1.131.651.671.500.551.82
vs Similar (4)1.251.252.002.000.500.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %26% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%018%127%221%314%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
72.9%
Under 1.5
27.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
46.2%
Under 2.5
53.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.7%
Under 3.5
75.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
49.7%
No
50.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
1-0
11.5%
2-0
10.0%
2-1
9.4%
0-0
9.2%
0-1 ✓
6.4%
1-2
5.6%
3-0
5.3%
Panevėžys II goals ↓
Kauno Žalgiris II goals →
01234
09.2%6.4%3.6%1.1%0.3%
111%13%5.6%1.8%0.4%
210.0%9.4%4.5%1.4%0.3%
35.3%5.0%2.3%0.7%0.2%
42.1%2.0%0.9%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Panevėžys II goals (down), columns = Kauno Žalgiris II goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.31
Be1 NFA
1.83
Babrungas
1.70
Minija
1.66
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.66
Nevėžis
1.66
Šilas
1.52
Trakai II
1.48
Garliava
1.33
Ekranas
1.30
BFA
1.27
FA Šiauliai II
1.10
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.07
Panevėžys II
1.03
Žalgiris II
0.93
Jonava
0.41
Panevėžys II is 0.03 points worse than Kauno Žalgiris II in terms of average points per game (1.03 vs 1.07).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.76
Babrungas
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.66
Trakai II
1.59
FA Šiauliai II
1.57
Žalgiris II
1.53
Nevėžis
1.52
Panevėžys II
1.50
Minija
1.45
Garliava
1.43
Ekranas
1.40
BFA
1.33
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.33
Šilas
1.17
Jonava
0.86
Panevėžys II is 0.17 goals better than Kauno Žalgiris II in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.33).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.00
Be1 NFA
1.03
Nevėžis
1.10
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.14
Trakai II
1.14
Garliava
1.23
Minija
1.28
BFA
1.37
Ekranas
1.63
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.63
Babrungas
1.63
Šilas
1.87
Panevėžys II
1.97
Žalgiris II
2.20
FA Šiauliai II
2.20
Jonava
2.62
Panevėžys II is 0.33 goals worse than Kauno Žalgiris II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.97 vs 1.63).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Panevėžys IIPanevėžys II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D12L00D11D21W14L01L01L10W01LH·ŠIL14/08A·BE120/08H·NEV28/08A·NEP06/09H·JON17/09A·TRA24/09H·TRA02/10A·MIN07/10H·FA 11/10A·GAR20/10
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.900.530.670.601.13
vs Stronger (9)0.441.440.400.800.502.25
vs Similar (8)0.750.380.500.501.000.25
vs Weaker (13)0.540.850.670.670.431.00
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Kauno Žalgiris IIKauno Žalgiris II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W02L00D01L01L02L01L00D00D11DH·EKR07/08A·TRA12/08H·BFA21/08A·TRA27/08H·BAB31/08A·MIN15/09A·FA 02/10H·BE108/10A·GAR13/10H·NEV22/10
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.420.770.770.540.081.00
vs Stronger (22)0.450.820.820.550.091.09
vs Similar (4)0.250.500.500.500.000.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %42% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Panevėžys II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Panevėžys IIPanevėžys II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L01L20W11D20W02L10W13L20W00DH·ŠIL14/08A·BE120/08H·NEV28/08A·NEP06/09H·JON17/09A·TRA24/09H·TRA02/10A·MIN07/10H·FA 11/10A·GAR20/10
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.771.070.670.930.871.20
vs Stronger (9)0.331.670.001.600.751.75
vs Similar (8)1.000.381.500.000.500.75
vs Weaker (13)0.921.080.671.001.141.14
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Kauno Žalgiris IIKauno Žalgiris II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L01L20W00D10W01L21W01L00D20WH·EKR07/08A·TRA12/08H·BFA21/08A·TRA27/08H·BAB31/08A·MIN15/09A·FA 02/10H·BE108/10A·GAR13/10H·NEV22/10
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.650.880.851.150.460.62
vs Stronger (22)0.590.910.731.090.450.73
vs Similar (4)1.000.751.501.500.500.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Panevėžys II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.575.3%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.572.9%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (24)
€5m
ŽI (6)
€1m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (8)
€2m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (5)
€1m
FŠI (2)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (11)
€2m
ŽI (3)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
1
PI wins
0
Draws
0
KŽI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Panevėžys II vs Kauno Žalgiris II · H/A from PI
DateH/AGameScore
08/06/23AKauno Žalgiris II Vs PI1-4

Panevėžys IIPanevėžys II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/10/23AGarliava Vs PI1-0
11/10/23HPI Vs FA Šiauliai II3-0
07/10/23AMinija Vs PI4-1
02/10/23HPI Vs Trakai II1-1
24/09/23ATransINVEST Vilnius Vs PI6-1
17/09/23HPI Vs Jonava4-1
06/09/23ANeptūną Klaipėda Vs PI2-2
28/08/23HPI Vs Nevėžis2-0
20/08/23ABe1 NFA Vs PI3-1
14/08/23HPI Vs Šilas0-1

Kauno Žalgiris IIKauno Žalgiris II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/10/23HKŽI Vs Nevėžis3-1
13/10/23AGarliava Vs KŽI0-0
08/10/23HKŽI Vs Be1 NFA0-1
02/10/23AFA Šiauliai II Vs KŽI2-2
25/09/23HKŽI Vs Šilas3-0
15/09/23AMinija Vs KŽI3-0
31/08/23HKŽI Vs Babrungas1-1
27/08/23ATrakai II Vs KŽI1-0
21/08/23HKŽI Vs BFA2-0
12/08/23ATransINVEST Vilnius Vs KŽI3-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Panevėžys II
Panevėžys II
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLWL1.18
HomeLWWDW1.24
AwayLDLLL1.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%36%32%
AVG goals3.623.523.72
Over 1.5 %92%92%92%
Over 2.5 %78%68%88%
Over 3.5 %44%40%48%
Scored1.541.601.48
Conceded2.081.922.24
BTTS68%56%80%
Clean Sheet12%16%8%
Corners---
Cards---
Kauno Žalgiris II
Kauno Žalgiris II
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLDW0.96
HomeWDWLW1.21
AwayLLLDD0.69
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%29%15%
AVG goals2.743.292.15
Over 1.5 %74%86%62%
Over 2.5 %52%64%38%
Over 3.5 %37%57%15%
Scored1.151.710.54
Conceded1.591.571.62
BTTS41%57%23%
Clean Sheet26%29%23%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1TransINVEST VilniusTransINVEST Vilnius2967
72%
2.3
8029+51
3.8
90%
79%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.81.0
-
2Be1 NFABe1 NFA2953
55%
1.8
4830+18
2.7
76%
52%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.0
-
3BabrungasBabrungas3051
50%
1.7
6049+11
3.6
93%
67%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.6
-
4Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda2948
45%
1.7
5433+21
3.0
76%
55%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.1
-
5NevėžisNevėžis2948
45%
1.7
4432+12
2.6
72%
52%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.1
-
6MinijaMinija2948
48%
1.7
4237+5
2.7
83%
59%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.3
-
7Trakai IITrakai II2943
41%
1.5
4633+13
2.7
83%
55%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.1
-
8GarliavaGarliava3040
30%
1.3
4337+6
2.7
80%
43%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.2
-
9EkranasEkranas3039
37%
1.3
4249-7
3.0
77%
57%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.6
-
10BFABFA3038
33%
1.3
4041-1
2.7
80%
47%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.4
-
11ŠilasŠilas2335
48%
1.5
2743-16
3.0
78%
57%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.9
-
12FA Šiauliai IIFA Šiauliai II3033
30%
1.1
4766-19
3.8
90%
77%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.2
-
13Kauno Žalgiris IIKauno Žalgiris II3032
27%
1.1
4049-9
3.0
73%
53%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.6
-
14Panevėžys IIPanevėžys II3031
27%
1.0
4559-14
3.5
83%
70%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.0
-
15Žalgiris IIŽalgiris II3028
23%
0.9
4666-20
3.7
90%
73%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.52.2
-
16JonavaJonava2912
10%
0.4
2576-51
3.5
93%
72%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.6
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Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →

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