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Panevėžys II vs Kauno Žalgiris II Result & Analysis

Date: 28/04/2025
Time: 15:00
Final 4-2
Panevėžys II
Panevėžys II
Vs
41%
27%
32%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Kauno Žalgiris II
Kauno Žalgiris II
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Panevėžys II win✓ Hit
40.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II win✗ Miss
31.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Panevėžys IIPanevėžys II

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-610W11D04L31W11D06L03L41W20W22DA·FA 11/10H·BFA19/10A·EKR26/10H·GAR02/11A·MIN08/11A·TAU08/03H·NEV15/03A·ATM29/03H·EKR04/04A·BFA18/04
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.332.001.071.931.602.07
vs Stronger (2)0.503.000.003.001.003.00
vs Similar (9)1.222.330.601.802.003.00
vs Weaker (19)1.471.741.441.891.501.60
Clean sheet %10% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Kauno Žalgiris IIKauno Žalgiris II

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-502L05L21W22D40W01L10W02L10W20WH·TAU13/10H·FA 21/10H·BFA26/10H·EKR02/11A·GAR08/11A·ATM07/03H·EKR14/03A·BFA28/03H·JON05/04H·HEG18/04
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.271.831.401.331.132.33
vs Stronger (22)1.272.091.361.361.182.82
vs Similar (8)1.251.121.501.251.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%19%25%7%014%125%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.5%
Under 1.5
21.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
53.7%
Under 2.5
46.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
31.4%
Under 3.5
68.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.2%
No
41.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%
2-1
8.9%
1-0
7.8%
1-2
7.7%
0-0
7.1%
2-0
6.8%
0-1
6.6%
2-2
5.8%
Panevėžys II goals ↓
Kauno Žalgiris II goals →
01234
07.1%6.6%5.1%2.3%0.7%
17.8%13%7.7%3.4%1.1%
26.8%8.9%5.8%2.6%0.8%
33.4%4.5%2.9%1.3%0.4%
41.3%1.7%1.1%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Panevėžys II goals (down), columns = Kauno Žalgiris II goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.63
Neptūną Klaipėda
2.23
Tauras
2.07
Babrungas
1.93
BFA
1.83
Atmosfera
1.60
Jonava
1.40
Žalgiris II
1.40
Minija
1.20
Hegelmann II
1.03
Be1 NFA
1.00
Ekranas
0.97
FA Šiauliai II
0.94
Kauno Žalgiris II
0.90
Nevėžis
0.87
Panevėžys II
0.70
Sveikata
0.50
Panevėžys II is 0.20 points worse than Kauno Žalgiris II in terms of average points per game (0.70 vs 0.90).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.90
Neptūną Klaipėda
2.27
Babrungas
2.13
Tauras
1.87
Atmosfera
1.73
Žalgiris II
1.67
BFA
1.57
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.43
Ekranas
1.23
Be1 NFA
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.17
Nevėžis
1.07
Sveikata
1.00
Panevėžys II
1.00
Minija
0.90
Jonava
0.87
Panevėžys II is 0.43 goals worse than Kauno Žalgiris II in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.43).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
TransINVEST Vilnius
0.73
Tauras
0.73
Jonava
0.83
Neptūną Klaipėda
0.90
Atmosfera
1.13
BFA
1.20
Babrungas
1.43
Minija
1.53
Žalgiris II
1.60
Be1 NFA
1.70
Hegelmann II
1.70
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.90
Ekranas
1.93
Nevėžis
1.93
FA Šiauliai II
2.28
Panevėžys II
2.70
Sveikata
3.50
Panevėžys II is 0.80 goals worse than Kauno Žalgiris II in terms of goals conceded per game (2.70 vs 1.90).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Panevėžys IIPanevėžys II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D01L01L10W01L04L00D20W10W01LA·FA 11/10H·BFA19/10A·EKR26/10H·GAR02/11A·MIN08/11A·TAU08/03H·NEV15/03A·ATM29/03H·EKR04/04A·BFA18/04
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.970.270.930.731.00
vs Stronger (2)0.002.000.003.000.001.00
vs Similar (9)0.561.220.200.601.002.00
vs Weaker (19)0.530.740.330.890.700.60
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Kauno Žalgiris IIKauno Žalgiris II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L01L10W20W20W01L10W01L00D20WH·TAU13/10H·FA 21/10H·BFA26/10H·EKR02/11A·GAR08/11A·ATM07/03H·EKR14/03A·BFA28/03H·JON05/04H·HEG18/04
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.630.870.270.601.00
vs Stronger (22)0.640.730.640.270.641.18
vs Similar (8)1.000.381.500.250.500.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Panevėžys II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Panevėžys IIPanevėžys II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W10W03L21W10W02L03L21W10W21WA·FA 11/10H·BFA19/10A·EKR26/10H·GAR02/11A·MIN08/11A·TAU08/03H·NEV15/03A·ATM29/03H·EKR04/04A·BFA18/04
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.831.030.801.000.871.07
vs Stronger (2)0.501.000.000.001.002.00
vs Similar (9)0.671.110.401.201.001.00
vs Weaker (19)0.951.001.111.000.801.00
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Kauno Žalgiris IIKauno Žalgiris II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L04L11D02L20W00D00D01L10W00DH·TAU13/10H·FA 21/10H·BFA26/10H·EKR02/11A·GAR08/11A·ATM07/03H·EKR14/03A·BFA28/03H·JON05/04H·HEG18/04
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.531.200.531.070.531.33
vs Stronger (22)0.641.360.731.090.551.64
vs Similar (8)0.250.750.001.000.500.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Panevėžys II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.578.5%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (24)
€5m
ŽI (6)
€1m
HI (4)
€0m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
TAU (2)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (8)
€2m
TAU (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (2)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (5)
€1m
FŠI (2)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (11)
€2m
ŽI (3)
€0m
HI (2)
€0m
TAU (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
1
PI wins
0
Draws
3
KŽI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Panevėžys II vs Kauno Žalgiris II · H/A from PI
DateH/AGameScore
06/10/24HPI Vs Kauno Žalgiris II0-3
20/05/24AKauno Žalgiris II Vs PI2-0
27/10/23HPI Vs Kauno Žalgiris II0-1
08/06/23AKauno Žalgiris II Vs PI1-4

Panevėžys IIPanevėžys II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/04/25ABFA Vs PI2-2
04/04/25HPI Vs Ekranas2-0
29/03/25AAtmosfera Vs PI1-4
15/03/25HPI Vs Nevėžis0-3
08/03/25ATauras Vs PI6-0
08/11/24AMinija Vs PI1-1
02/11/24HPI Vs Garliava3-1
26/10/24AEkranas Vs PI4-0
19/10/24HPI Vs BFA1-1
11/10/24AFA Šiauliai II Vs PI0-1

Kauno Žalgiris IIKauno Žalgiris II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/04/25HKŽI Vs Hegelmann II2-0
05/04/25HKŽI Vs Jonava1-0
28/03/25ABFA Vs KŽI2-0
14/03/25HKŽI Vs Ekranas1-0
07/03/25AAtmosfera Vs KŽI1-0
08/11/24AGarliava Vs KŽI0-4
02/11/24HKŽI Vs Ekranas2-2
26/10/24HKŽI Vs BFA2-1
21/10/24HKŽI Vs FA Šiauliai II0-5
13/10/24HKŽI Vs Tauras0-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Panevėžys II
Panevėžys II
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWWD1.14
HomeLDWLW1.25
AwayLDLWD1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%33%27%
AVG goals3.302.623.92
Over 1.5 %82%83%81%
Over 2.5 %62%50%73%
Over 3.5 %44%29%58%
Scored1.401.211.58
Conceded1.901.422.35
BTTS54%42%65%
Clean Sheet18%25%12%
Corners---
Cards---
Kauno Žalgiris II
Kauno Žalgiris II
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLWW1.28
HomeWDWWW1.65
AwayWWWLL0.88
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%46%25%
AVG goals2.982.733.25
Over 1.5 %82%85%79%
Over 2.5 %58%54%62%
Over 3.5 %32%27%38%
Scored1.301.501.08
Conceded1.681.232.17
BTTS40%54%25%
Clean Sheet26%27%25%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1TransINVEST VilniusTransINVEST Vilnius3079
87%
2.6
8722+65
3.6
90%
77%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.90.7
-
2Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda3067
70%
2.2
6827+41
3.2
80%
57%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.30.9
-
3TaurasTauras3062
60%
2.1
5622+34
2.6
73%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.90.7
-
4BabrungasBabrungas3058
57%
1.9
6443+21
3.6
83%
67%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.4
-
5BFABFA3055
53%
1.8
4736+11
2.8
70%
53%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.2
-
6AtmosferaAtmosfera3048
47%
1.6
5234+18
2.9
70%
53%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.1
-
7Žalgiris IIŽalgiris II3042
37%
1.4
5048+2
3.3
83%
57%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.71.6
-
8JonavaJonava3042
37%
1.4
2625+1
1.7
57%
23%
7%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.90.8
-
9MinijaMinija3036
37%
1.2
2746-19
2.4
67%
47%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.5
-
10Hegelmann IIHegelmann II3031
27%
1.0
3551-16
2.9
80%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.7
-
11Be1 NFABe1 NFA3030
27%
1.0
3551-16
2.9
80%
63%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.7
-
12FA Šiauliai IIFA Šiauliai II3230
28%
0.9
4873-25
3.8
91%
78%
59%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.3
-
13EkranasEkranas3029
30%
1.0
3758-21
3.2
83%
60%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.9
-
14Kauno Žalgiris IIKauno Žalgiris II3027
27%
0.9
4357-14
3.3
83%
63%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.9
-
15NevėžisNevėžis3026
23%
0.9
3258-26
3.0
73%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.9
-
16Panevėžys IIPanevėžys II3021
20%
0.7
3081-51
3.7
90%
67%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.7
-
17SveikataSveikata21
0%
0.5
27-5
4.5
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.03.5
-
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →

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