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Panevėžys II vs Neptūną Klaipėda Result & Analysis

Date: 16/04/2023
Time: 12:00
Final 1-0
Panevėžys II
Panevėžys II
Vs
24%
20%
56%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Neptūną Klaipėda
Neptūną Klaipėda
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Panevėžys II win✓ Hit
23.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
20.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda win✗ Miss
56.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Panevėžys IIPanevėžys II

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W13L20W02L03L13L24L12L02L00DA·NEV14/10H·DAI22/10A·GAR28/10H·BE107/11A·EKR12/11A·BFA11/03H·BAB17/03A·ŠIL26/03H·BE102/04A·NEV07/04
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.532.231.792.501.312.00
vs Stronger (8)1.252.501.602.000.673.33
vs Similar (9)1.562.001.673.001.501.50
vs Weaker (13)1.692.232.002.671.431.86
Clean sheet %10% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Neptūną Klaipėda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-701L31W72W31W42W42W23L00D11D12LA·MIN15/10H·FA 21/10A·TRA28/10A·BAB05/11H·ATM12/11H·TRA11/03A·TRA17/03H·MIN24/03A·FA 02/04H·GAR07/04
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.131.402.311.061.931.79
vs Stronger (10)2.601.602.501.002.672.00
vs Similar (13)1.541.082.000.750.801.60
vs Weaker (7)2.571.712.751.752.331.67
Clean sheet %23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%2%06%115%219%320%416%522%6+
The model estimates around 4.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
91.8%
Under 1.5
8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
76.8%
Under 2.5
23.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
57.4%
Under 3.5
42.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
73.4%
No
26.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
8.4%
1-1
7.5%
1-3
6.9%
2-2
6.7%
2-3
5.5%
2-1
5.4%
0-2
5.3%
0-3
4.3%
Panevėžys II goals ↓
Neptūną Klaipėda goals →
01234
02.4%3.6%5.3%4.3%2.7%
12.1%7.5%8.4%6.9%4.2%
22.2%5.4%6.7%5.5%3.3%
31.2%2.9%3.5%2.9%1.8%
40.5%1.1%1.4%1.1%0.7%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Panevėžys II goals (down), columns = Neptūną Klaipėda goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.31
Be1 NFA
1.83
Babrungas
1.70
Minija
1.66
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.66
Nevėžis
1.66
Šilas
1.52
Trakai II
1.48
Garliava
1.33
Ekranas
1.30
BFA
1.27
FA Šiauliai II
1.10
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.07
Panevėžys II
1.03
Žalgiris II
0.93
Jonava
0.41
Panevėžys II is 0.62 points worse than Neptūną Klaipėda in terms of average points per game (1.03 vs 1.66).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.76
Babrungas
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.66
Trakai II
1.59
FA Šiauliai II
1.57
Žalgiris II
1.53
Nevėžis
1.52
Panevėžys II
1.50
Minija
1.45
Garliava
1.43
Ekranas
1.40
BFA
1.33
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.33
Šilas
1.17
Jonava
0.86
Panevėžys II is 0.36 goals worse than Neptūną Klaipėda in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.86).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.00
Be1 NFA
1.03
Nevėžis
1.10
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.14
Trakai II
1.14
Garliava
1.23
Minija
1.28
BFA
1.37
Ekranas
1.63
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.63
Babrungas
1.63
Šilas
1.87
Panevėžys II
1.97
Žalgiris II
2.20
FA Šiauliai II
2.20
Jonava
2.62
Panevėžys II is 0.83 goals worse than Neptūną Klaipėda in terms of goals conceded per game (1.97 vs 1.14).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Panevėžys IIPanevėžys II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D12L10W01L01L01L22D01L01L00DA·NEV14/10H·DAI22/10A·GAR28/10H·BE107/11A·EKR12/11A·BFA11/03H·BAB17/03A·ŠIL26/03H·BE102/04A·NEV07/04
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.631.000.791.290.500.75
vs Stronger (8)0.501.120.601.000.331.33
vs Similar (9)0.780.891.002.000.670.33
vs Weaker (13)0.621.000.831.170.430.86
Clean sheet %27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Neptūną Klaipėda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L20W22D21W32W01L12L00D10W00DA·MIN15/10H·FA 21/10A·TRA28/10A·BAB05/11H·ATM12/11H·TRA11/03A·TRA17/03H·MIN24/03A·FA 02/04H·GAR07/04
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.830.810.620.711.07
vs Stronger (10)0.901.100.500.751.171.33
vs Similar (13)0.690.690.880.500.401.00
vs Weaker (7)0.710.711.000.750.330.67
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Panevėžys II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Panevėžys IIPanevėžys II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W01L10W01L02L12L02L11D01L00DA·NEV14/10H·DAI22/10A·GAR28/10H·BE107/11A·EKR12/11A·BFA11/03H·BAB17/03A·ŠIL26/03H·BE102/04A·NEV07/04
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.901.231.001.210.811.25
vs Stronger (8)0.751.381.001.000.332.00
vs Similar (9)0.781.110.671.000.831.17
vs Weaker (13)1.081.231.171.501.001.00
Clean sheet %23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Neptūną Klaipėda) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-500D11D50W10W10W41W11D00D01L12LA·MIN15/10H·FA 21/10A·TRA28/10A·BAB05/11H·ATM12/11H·TRA11/03A·TRA17/03H·MIN24/03A·FA 02/04H·GAR07/04
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.370.571.500.441.210.71
vs Stronger (10)1.700.502.000.251.500.67
vs Similar (13)0.850.381.120.250.400.60
vs Weaker (7)1.861.001.751.002.001.00
Clean sheet %57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Panevėžys II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Panevėžys II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Panevėžys II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptūną Klaipėda over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.591.8%-------✗ Miss
Over 2.576.8%-------✗ Miss
BTTS Yes73.4%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (24)
€5m
ŽI (6)
€1m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (8)
€2m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (5)
€1m
FŠI (2)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (11)
€2m
ŽI (3)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
1
PI wins
0
Draws
1
NK wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Panevėžys II vs Neptūną Klaipėda · H/A from PI
DateH/AGameScore
12/08/22ANeptūną Klaipėda Vs PI1-2
03/04/22HPI Vs Neptūną Klaipėda0-2

Panevėžys IIPanevėžys II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/04/23ANevėžis Vs PI0-0
02/04/23HPI Vs Be1 NFA0-2
26/03/23AŠilas Vs PI2-1
17/03/23HPI Vs Babrungas2-4
11/03/23ABFA Vs PI3-1
12/11/22AEkranas Vs PI3-0
07/11/22HPI Vs Be1 NFA0-2
28/10/22AGarliava Vs PI0-2
22/10/22HPI Vs Dainava1-3
14/10/22ANevėžis Vs PI1-2

Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/04/23HNK Vs Garliava1-2
02/04/23AFA Šiauliai II Vs NK1-1
24/03/23HNK Vs Minija0-0
17/03/23ATrakai II Vs NK3-2
11/03/23HNK Vs TransINVEST Vilnius4-2
12/11/22HNK Vs Atmosfera4-2
05/11/22ABabrungas Vs NK1-3
28/10/22ATrakai II Vs NK2-7
21/10/22HNK Vs FA Šiauliai II3-1
15/10/22AMinija Vs NK1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Panevėžys II
Panevėžys II
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLD1.06
HomeWLLLL1.06
AwayWLLLD1.06
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %29%29%28%
AVG goals3.573.883.28
Over 1.5 %94%94%94%
Over 2.5 %77%71%83%
Over 3.5 %49%59%39%
Scored1.461.591.33
Conceded2.112.291.94
BTTS69%59%78%
Clean Sheet11%12%11%
Corners---
Cards---
Neptūną Klaipėda
Neptūną Klaipėda
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLDDL1.91
HomeWWWDL2.22
AwayLWWLD1.59
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %57%67%47%
AVG goals3.373.223.53
Over 1.5 %89%89%88%
Over 2.5 %66%61%71%
Over 3.5 %40%33%47%
Scored2.112.172.06
Conceded1.261.061.47
BTTS66%67%65%
Clean Sheet29%33%24%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1TransINVEST VilniusTransINVEST Vilnius2967
72%
2.3
8029+51
3.8
90%
79%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.81.0
-
2Be1 NFABe1 NFA2953
55%
1.8
4830+18
2.7
76%
52%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.0
-
3BabrungasBabrungas3051
50%
1.7
6049+11
3.6
93%
67%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.6
-
4Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda2948
45%
1.7
5433+21
3.0
76%
55%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.1
-
5NevėžisNevėžis2948
45%
1.7
4432+12
2.6
72%
52%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.1
-
6MinijaMinija2948
48%
1.7
4237+5
2.7
83%
59%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.3
-
7Trakai IITrakai II2943
41%
1.5
4633+13
2.7
83%
55%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.1
-
8GarliavaGarliava3040
30%
1.3
4337+6
2.7
80%
43%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.2
-
9EkranasEkranas3039
37%
1.3
4249-7
3.0
77%
57%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.6
-
10BFABFA3038
33%
1.3
4041-1
2.7
80%
47%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.4
-
11ŠilasŠilas2335
48%
1.5
2743-16
3.0
78%
57%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.9
-
12FA Šiauliai IIFA Šiauliai II3033
30%
1.1
4766-19
3.8
90%
77%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.2
-
13Kauno Žalgiris IIKauno Žalgiris II3032
27%
1.1
4049-9
3.0
73%
53%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.6
-
14Panevėžys IIPanevėžys II3031
27%
1.0
4559-14
3.5
83%
70%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.0
-
15Žalgiris IIŽalgiris II3028
23%
0.9
4666-20
3.7
90%
73%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.52.2
-
16JonavaJonava2912
10%
0.4
2576-51
3.5
93%
72%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.6
-
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →

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