Paris FC are tipped to lift the trophy at home, with the model favouring a home win. The expected goal tally sits at 2.6, with the most likely total of two goals. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.6% chance. Paris FC, playing at home against a similar-strength side, average 1.25 goals scored and 1.67 conceded, while Nice, on the road, average 0.64 scored and 1.43 conceded. The win probabilities read 42% for Paris, 28% for a draw and 30% for Nice. The model’s selections include Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.4% with a 6% edge, Under 7.5 at 98.9%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.6% with a 7% edge, Under 6.5 at 96.8% with no edge, Away under 3.5 goals at 94.0%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 93.4% with a 1% edge, Away under 1.5 HT goals at 93.4% with a 4% edge, and Home under 3.5 goals at 93.3% with a 2% edge. Both sides have recently drawn their last fixtures, adding a cautious tone to the encounter.
Results analysis
Paris FC’s recent form, highlighted by a win over Nice, set the stage for a decisive home victory. The model’s favourite, a home win at 41 percent, proved correct as Paris FC triumphed 3-0. The predicted most likely score of 1-1 was not achieved, but the match still aligned with the model’s overall outlook. Every suggested selection hit: Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.4 percent, Under 7.5 at 98.9 percent, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.5 percent, Under 6.5 at 96.8 percent, Away under 3.5 goals at 94.0 percent, Away under 1.5 HT goals at 93.5 percent, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 93.5 percent, and Home under 3.5 goals at 93.3 percent. The model’s selections performed flawlessly, confirming its accuracy for this match.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Paris FC win✓ Hit
41.3%
Avg Implied 45.8% · @ 2.07
Edge
-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
2.12
1xBet
2.12
Dafabet
2.11
Pinnacle
2.10
Betano
2.10
Draw✗ Miss
28.7%
Avg Implied 28.4% · @ 3.35
Edge
+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.44
Pinnacle
3.42
Betfair
3.40
BetVictor
3.40
Nice win✗ Miss
30.0%
Avg Implied 25.8% · @ 3.68
Edge
+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.90
1xBet
3.86
Pinnacle
3.85
Bet365
3.80
Marathonbet
3.80
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Paris FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.23
1.50
1.57
1.06
0.94
vs Stronger (5)
1.80
0.80
3.00
1.00
1.00
0.67
vs Similar (24)
1.08
1.38
1.25
1.67
0.92
1.08
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
-
-
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Nice) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nice
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.43
1.43
1.50
0.88
1.38
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
4.00
0.00
4.00
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.92
1.36
1.27
1.27
0.64
1.43
vs Weaker (4)
2.75
1.25
3.00
1.50
2.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Paris FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.3%
@ 1.32+3.3%
Under 1.5
25.7%
@ 3.24-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.35
Superbet
1.34
Pinnacle
1.34
10Bet
1.33
BetVictor
1.33
Under
Pinnacle
3.43
Bet365
3.40
Betfair
3.40
Superbet
3.30
Unibet
3.25
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
47.9%
@ 2.04+1.2%
Under 2.5
52.1%
@ 1.79-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.11
Pinnacle
2.09
Superbet
2.07
Unibet
2.07
Betano
2.05
Under
1xBet
1.84
SBO
1.83
Pinnacle
1.81
10Bet
1.80
Betfair
1.80
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.2%
@ 3.54-0.3%
Under 3.5
73.8%
@ 1.28+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.75
Superbet
3.65
Pinnacle
3.60
BetVictor
3.60
10Bet
3.55
Under
Betano
1.31
Pinnacle
1.31
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Superbet
1.29
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.6%
@ 1.80+1.8%
No
46.4%
@ 1.93-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.85
Unibet
1.82
1xBet
1.81
Marathonbet
1.81
William Hil
1.80
No
Betfair
2.00
Betano
1.95
10Bet
1.95
Bet365
1.95
William Hil
1.95
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%@ 5.91+6.2%
1-0
9.4%@ 6.70+2.7%
2-1
8.8%@ 7.94+3.2%
0-0
8.7%@ 8.73+3.6%
0-1
7.6%@ 9.49+2.9%
2-0
7.5%@ 9.17+2.7%
1-2
7.3%@ 11.35+3.4%
2-2
5.2%@ 13.24+1.8%
Paris FC goals ↓
Nice goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.7%
7.6%
5.2%
2.0%
0.6%
1
9.4%
14%
7.3%
2.9%
0.8%
2
7.5%
8.8%
5.2%
2.0%
0.6%
3
3.6%
4.2%
2.4%
1.0%
0.3%
4
1.3%
1.5%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Paris FC goals (down), columns = Nice goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.24
Lens
2.06
Lille
1.79
Lyon
1.76
Marseille
1.74
Rennes
1.74
Monaco
1.59
Strasbourg
1.56
Toulouse
1.33
Lorient
1.32
Paris FC
1.29
Stade Brestois 29
1.15
Angers
1.06
Estac Troyes
1.04
Le Havre
1.03
Auxerre
1.00
Nice
1.00
Le Mans
0.83
Paris FC is 0.29 points better than Nice in terms of average points per game (1.29 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.18
Lens
1.94
Marseille
1.85
Monaco
1.76
Rennes
1.74
Strasbourg
1.71
Lyon
1.56
Lille
1.53
Toulouse
1.42
Lorient
1.41
Paris FC
1.38
Stade Brestois 29
1.26
Nice
1.14
Estac Troyes
1.11
Auxerre
1.00
Le Havre
0.94
Le Mans
0.88
Angers
0.85
Paris FC is 0.24 goals better than Nice in terms of goals scored per game (1.38 vs 1.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Paris Saint Germain
0.85
Lens
1.03
Lille
1.09
Lyon
1.18
Le Havre
1.29
Auxerre
1.29
Marseille
1.32
Strasbourg
1.38
Toulouse
1.39
Angers
1.41
Rennes
1.47
Paris FC
1.47
Lorient
1.50
Monaco
1.59
Stade Brestois 29
1.62
Nice
1.69
Estac Troyes
1.85
Le Mans
2.32
Paris FC is 0.22 goals better than Nice in terms of goals conceded per game (1.47 vs 1.69).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Paris Saint Germain
69%
Marseille
57%
Lille
56%
Lyon
55%
Monaco
54%
Strasbourg
54%
Rennes
54%
Lens
51%
Paris FC
50%
Le Havre
47%
Nice
47%
Lorient
45%
Auxerre
44%
Stade Brestois 29
43%
Toulouse
42%
Angers
42%
Paris FC is 3.7 percentage points better than Nice in terms of average possession (50% vs 47%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Paris FC
For 4.4 · Against 6.1 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.0 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.6 · Against 9.1 · Total 18.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Nice
For 5.7 · Against 5.7 · Total 11.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.4 · Against 10.8 · Total 20.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Paris FC
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.4
9.4
4.0
4.5
3.5
22.4
23.0
21.8
vs Stronger (5)
7.8
9.0
7.0
2.6
1.5
3.3
15.6
14.0
16.7
vs Similar (34)
9.9
9.8
10.1
4.1
5.0
3.2
22.6
23.7
21.5
vs Weaker (11)
8.5
8.0
8.7
4.1
4.0
4.1
24.8
24.8
24.9
% over line
50%
43%
56%
54%
57%
52%
56%
70%
44%
% under line
50%
57%
44%
46%
43%
48%
44%
30%
56%
This opponent (Nice) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nice
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
10.8
10.3
4.1
3.8
4.3
23.6
23.0
24.2
vs Stronger (5)
8.2
7.5
8.7
4.0
4.0
4.0
24.0
22.5
25.0
vs Similar (40)
10.8
10.7
10.9
4.1
3.8
4.3
23.4
22.7
24.1
vs Weaker (5)
11.0
13.3
7.5
4.0
3.7
4.5
24.6
25.3
23.5
% over line
60%
62%
58%
60%
50%
69%
58%
50%
65%
% under line
40%
38%
42%
40%
50%
31%
42%
50%
35%
This opponent (Paris FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Nice
10.6
Rennes
10.4
Lens
10.3
Auxerre
10.0
Lyon
9.9
Stade Brestois 29
9.7
Lille
9.5
Monaco
9.5
Paris FC
9.4
Paris Saint Germain
9.3
Toulouse
9.3
Angers
9.2
Le Mans
9.1
Marseille
9.0
Le Havre
9.0
Strasbourg
8.9
Lorient
8.9
Estac Troyes
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Auxerre
4.8
Lyon
4.6
Marseille
4.5
Lens
4.5
Le Mans
4.5
Lille
4.4
Toulouse
4.4
Rennes
4.3
Monaco
4.3
Strasbourg
4.2
Nice
4.1
Le Havre
4.0
Paris FC
4.0
Lorient
4.0
Estac Troyes
3.9
Stade Brestois 29
3.7
Angers
3.4
Paris Saint Germain
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Le Mans
27.1
Estac Troyes
27.0
Le Havre
26.8
Auxerre
25.7
Toulouse
25.6
Lyon
25.1
Stade Brestois 29
25.0
Lens
24.8
Lille
24.0
Rennes
23.8
Nice
23.6
Monaco
23.5
Strasbourg
23.5
Marseille
23.3
Lorient
22.8
Angers
22.7
Paris FC
22.4
Paris Saint Germain
19.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
55.4%
@ 1.77+2.6%
Under 9.5
44.6%
@ 1.98-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.83
Betano
1.82
10Bet
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.78
Under
Bet365
2.10
Superbet
2.05
Pinnacle
2.00
Betano
2.00
1xBet
1.94
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
57.2%
@ 1.67+1.5%
Under 3.5
42.8%
@ 2.10-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Unibet
1.68
Betano
1.65
Pinnacle
1.64
Under
Superbet
2.40
Pinnacle
2.23
Betano
2.15
Unibet
2.02
1xBet
1.91
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
55.9%
@ 1.76+4.3%
Under 21.5
44.1%
@ 1.88-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.76
Under
Superbet
1.88
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Paris FC or Draw✓ Hit
64.6%
Avg Implied 74.0% · @ 1.27
Edge
-9.4%
41%
29%
30%
covers Paris FC + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.30
Betano
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
Superbet
1.30
William Hil
1.29
Paris FC or Nice✓ Hit
73.3%
Avg Implied 72.2% · @ 1.31
Edge
+1.1%
41%
29%
30%
covers Paris FC + Nice
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.35
1xBet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.35
William Hil
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Draw or Nice✗ Miss
62.1%
Avg Implied 53.8% · @ 1.75
Edge
+8.3%
41%
29%
30%
covers Draw + Nice
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.80
Betano
1.78
SBO
1.78
Unibet
1.76
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Paris FC over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
77.9%
@ 1.22+1.6%
Under
22.1%
@ 3.94-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Superbet
1.24
BetVictor
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Under
Betfair
4.50
Pinnacle
4.22
Bet365
4.00
1xBet
3.90
Unibet
3.80
Paris FC over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
44.5%
@ 2.12+0.4%
Under
55.5%
@ 1.68-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.19
Superbet
2.17
Marathonbet
2.15
10Bet
2.15
1xBet
2.15
Under
Betfair
1.73
Pinnacle
1.71
Marathonbet
1.71
1xBet
1.71
Betano
1.67
Paris FC over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
19.4%
@ 4.54-1.2%
Under
80.6%
@ 1.17+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.80
BetVictor
4.75
Superbet
4.70
1xBet
4.65
Marathonbet
4.65
Under
Pinnacle
1.21
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Paris FC over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.7%
@ 10.62-2.1%
Under
93.3%
@ 1.02+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
11.00
Marathonbet
10.75
1xBet
10.70
Unibet
10.00
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Unibet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Nice over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
76.7%
@ 1.44+11.8%
Under
23.3%
@ 2.65-11.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.47
1xBet
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
Unibet
1.44
BetVictor
1.44
Under
Betfair
2.75
Pinnacle
2.75
Superbet
2.70
Betano
2.67
10Bet
2.65
Nice over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
42.7%
@ 3.21+13.5%
Under
57.3%
@ 1.32-13.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
Pinnacle
3.37
Marathonbet
3.30
1xBet
3.30
BetVictor
3.20
Under
Superbet
1.35
Betano
1.34
10Bet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
Nice over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
18.0%
@ 8.40+6.9%
Under
82.0%
@ 1.05-6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Marathonbet
9.00
1xBet
9.00
Betfair
9.00
Unibet
8.00
Under
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Nice over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.0%
@ 20.17+1.2%
Under
94.0%
@ 1.01-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
26.00
Superbet
22.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
Superbet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Paris FC, so a minus line means Paris FC give that many goals of a start and Nice receive them. At -1, Paris FC must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Paris FC win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Paris FC)Actual: Paris FC
Paris FC -2
7.3%
@ 8.67-3.1%
Draw -2
11.6%
@ 5.85-3.9%
Nice +2
81.1%
@ 1.22+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
9.50
Bet365
9.00
Superbet
8.70
Unibet
8.50
10Bet
8.50
Draw
Superbet
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Marathonbet
5.95
10Bet
5.75
Away
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Unibet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
Handicap -1 (Paris FC)Actual: Paris FC
Paris FC -1
18.9%
@ 3.85-4.6%
Draw -1
19.0%
@ 3.63-5.8%
Nice +1
62.1%
@ 1.74+10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.95
Bet365
3.75
Unibet
3.70
Draw
Superbet
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.64
10Bet
3.60
Unibet
3.50
Away
Marathonbet
1.80
Unibet
1.75
Superbet
1.74
Betfair
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Handicap +1 (Paris FC)Actual: Paris FC
Paris FC +1
64.6%
@ 1.27-6.7%
Draw +1
18.2%
@ 5.12+0.6%
Nice -1
17.2%
@ 8.13+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
10Bet
1.28
Unibet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Superbet
5.25
Marathonbet
5.25
Unibet
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Away
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
9.00
Marathonbet
8.10
Superbet
7.70
10Bet
7.50
Handicap +2 (Paris FC)Actual: Paris FC
Paris FC +2
82.8%
@ 1.06-3.9%
Draw +2
10.7%
@ 10.50+2.0%
Nice -2
6.4%
@ 20.25+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.07
10Bet
1.06
Unibet
1.06
Betfair
1.04
Draw
Betfair
12.00
Bet365
12.00
Unibet
9.50
10Bet
8.50
Away
Betfair
23.00
Bet365
23.00
Unibet
18.00
10Bet
17.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Paris FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.47
0.71
0.79
0.31
0.19
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.40
1.50
0.50
0.00
0.33
vs Similar (24)
0.46
0.50
0.58
0.83
0.33
0.17
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Nice) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nice
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.77
0.36
0.71
0.38
0.81
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.20
0.80
0.27
0.73
0.14
0.86
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
0.50
1.00
0.50
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Paris FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
76.0%
@ 1.42+10.0%
Under 0.5
24.0%
@ 2.76-10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Marathonbet
1.45
1xBet
1.45
Pinnacle
1.43
Superbet
1.43
Under
Pinnacle
2.91
Betfair
2.88
Superbet
2.85
William Hil
2.80
Bet365
2.75
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
38.6%
@ 2.95+6.9%
Under 1.5
61.4%
@ 1.37-6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.08
Betano
3.05
1xBet
3.02
Marathonbet
3.02
Unibet
3.00
Under
Superbet
1.41
Pinnacle
1.39
1xBet
1.38
10Bet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.38
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
16.5%
@ 7.55+4.2%
Under 2.5
83.5%
@ 1.07-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
8.00
Bet365
8.00
Marathonbet
7.70
1xBet
7.70
Superbet
7.60
Under
Superbet
1.09
Betano
1.09
William Hil
1.08
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Paris FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
61.1%
@ 1.92+12.7%
Under
38.9%
@ 1.80-12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.95
Betano
1.95
1xBet
1.93
Marathonbet
1.93
Superbet
1.92
Under
Pinnacle
1.87
10Bet
1.85
Superbet
1.78
1xBet
1.78
Marathonbet
1.78
Paris FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
25.0%
@ 5.67+8.7%
Under
75.0%
@ 1.10-8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.00
Marathonbet
6.00
Unibet
5.60
10Bet
5.50
Superbet
5.50
Under
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Unibet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
Paris FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
6.5%
@ 14.62+0.0%
Under
93.5%
@ 1.01-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
18.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Nice over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
34.4%
@ 2.50-2.9%
Under
65.6%
@ 1.48+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.60
Betano
2.50
Unibet
2.50
Marathonbet
2.49
1xBet
2.49
Under
Betano
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Pinnacle
1.50
Superbet
1.49
1xBet
1.47
Nice over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
6.5%
@ 8.86-4.0%
Under
93.5%
@ 1.03+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.80
Marathonbet
9.80
Unibet
8.50
Superbet
8.20
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.02
Unibet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Nice over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.6%
@ 23.50-3.5%
Under
99.4%
@ 1.01+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
33.00
Betano
14.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Paris FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.77
0.79
0.79
0.75
0.75
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
0.40
1.50
0.50
1.00
0.33
vs Similar (24)
0.62
0.88
0.67
0.83
0.58
0.92
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Nice) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nice
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.67
1.07
0.79
0.50
0.56
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.72
0.56
1.00
0.55
0.50
0.57
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.75
2.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Paris FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
84.6%
@ 1.25+10.2%
Under 0.5
15.4%
@ 3.66-10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.28
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Under
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.75
Betano
3.70
1xBet
3.66
Marathonbet
3.66
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
51.7%
@ 2.21+9.1%
Under 1.5
48.3%
@ 1.64-9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.30
Marathonbet
2.25
1xBet
2.25
Bet365
2.20
William Hil
2.20
Under
Betano
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Marathonbet
1.67
Superbet
1.63
10Bet
1.62
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
24.9%
@ 4.88+5.7%
Under 2.5
75.1%
@ 1.16-5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
5.15
Bet365
5.00
William Hil
5.00
Marathonbet
4.95
1xBet
4.95
Under
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Paris FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
71.9%
@ 1.67+16.1%
Under
28.1%
@ 2.10-16.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.70
Superbet
1.68
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.63
Under
Betano
2.15
1xBet
2.14
Superbet
2.07
Marathonbet
2.03
Paris FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
37.1%
@ 4.19+14.9%
Under
62.9%
@ 1.19-14.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.33
Superbet
4.30
Marathonbet
4.20
1xBet
4.20
Betano
3.90
Under
Betano
1.23
Marathonbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Paris FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
11.8%
@ 10.50+2.9%
Under
88.2%
@ 1.03-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
Nice over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
40.8%
@ 2.03-5.0%
Under
59.2%
@ 1.72+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.06
Marathonbet
2.06
Superbet
2.02
Betano
1.98
Under
Betano
1.78
Superbet
1.72
1xBet
1.68
Marathonbet
1.68
Nice over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
10.1%
@ 6.23-4.8%
Under
89.9%
@ 1.09+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.80
1xBet
6.80
Superbet
6.10
10Bet
5.75
Betano
5.70
Under
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.07
Nice over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.5%
@ 16.38-4.4%
Under
98.5%
@ 1.02+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
21.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.4%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.5%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
96.8%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
+0.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
94.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-1.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.5%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.02
Unibet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
93.5%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
-0.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
93.3%
1.02
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Unibet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
92.0%
1.02
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Unibet
1.01
-1.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
89.9%
1.09
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.07
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
88.2%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
-2.9%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
84.6%
1.25
Superbet
1.28
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
+10.2%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
83.5%
1.07
Superbet
1.09
Betano
1.09
William Hil
1.08
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.07
-4.2%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
82.8%
1.06
Bet365
1.07
10Bet
1.06
Unibet
1.06
Betfair
1.04
-
-3.9%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
82.1%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Superbet
1.09
Betfair
1.08
-4.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
82.0%
1.05
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.04
-6.9%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
81.1%
1.22
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Unibet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
+7.0%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
80.6%
1.17
Pinnacle
1.21
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.17
10Bet
1.17
+1.2%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
78.1%
1.34
Pinnacle
1.37
Superbet
1.35
Unibet
1.35
Betano
1.31
-
+9.3%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
77.9%
1.22
Betano
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Superbet
1.24
BetVictor
1.22
10Bet
1.22
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
76.7%
1.44
Pinnacle
1.47
1xBet
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
Unibet
1.44
BetVictor
1.44
+11.8%
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
76.6%
1.25
Betano
1.29
Unibet
1.28
Superbet
1.17
-
-
+3.0%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 HT goals
76.0%
1.42
Betano
1.50
Marathonbet
1.45
1xBet
1.45
Pinnacle
1.43
Superbet
1.43
+10.0%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
75.1%
1.16
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
-5.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
75.0%
1.10
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Unibet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
-8.7%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
74.3%
1.32
Betano
1.35
Superbet
1.34
Pinnacle
1.34
10Bet
1.33
BetVictor
1.33
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.8%
1.28
Betano
1.31
Pinnacle
1.31
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Superbet
1.29
+0.3%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
73.3%
1.31
Superbet
1.35
1xBet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.35
William Hil
1.33
Bet365
1.33
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 2H goals
71.9%
1.67
Marathonbet
1.70
Superbet
1.68
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.63
-
+16.1%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Paris FC · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ilan Kebbal26%
Marshall Munetsi25%
Lohann Doucet20%
Willem Geubbels19%
Luca Koleosho17%
Alimami Gory16%
Ciro Immobile15%
Jonathan Ikoné15%
Nouha Dicko12%
Moses Simon10%
Rudy Matondo8%
Vincent Marchetti8%
Jean-Philippe Krasso8%
Samir Sophian Chergui7%
Pierre Lees Melou5%
Otávio4%
Adama Camara3%
Kevin Trapp0%
Maxime López0%
Hamari Traoré0%
Thibault De Smet0%
Julien López0%
Mathieu Cafaro0%
Timothée Kolodziejczak0%
Tuomas Ollila0%
Moustapha Mbow0%
Obed Nkambadio0%
Diego Coppola0%
Nhoa Sangui0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Maxime López41%
Lohann Doucet40%
Thibault De Smet32%
Otávio29%
Pierre Lees Melou27%
Adama Camara25%
Ilan Kebbal23%
Hamari Traoré22%
Rudy Matondo17%
Ciro Immobile15%
Timothée Kolodziejczak15%
Moustapha Mbow15%
Alimami Gory12%
Jonathan Ikoné12%
Kevin Trapp9%
Mathieu Cafaro8%
Diego Coppola7%
Samir Sophian Chergui7%
Luca Koleosho6%
Vincent Marchetti4%
Willem Geubbels0%
Moses Simon0%
Marshall Munetsi0%
Nouha Dicko0%
Julien López0%
Jean-Philippe Krasso0%
Tuomas Ollila0%
Obed Nkambadio0%
Nhoa Sangui0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ilan Kebbal16%
Ciro Immobile15%
Diego Coppola14%
Pierre Lees Melou14%
Nouha Dicko12%
Maxime López11%
Moses Simon10%
Jean-Philippe Krasso8%
Marshall Munetsi6%
Hamari Traoré6%
Luca Koleosho6%
Thibault De Smet5%
Alimami Gory4%
Vincent Marchetti4%
Jonathan Ikoné4%
Willem Geubbels4%
Moustapha Mbow3%
Kevin Trapp0%
Julien López0%
Samir Sophian Chergui0%
Mathieu Cafaro0%
Timothée Kolodziejczak0%
Tuomas Ollila0%
Adama Camara0%
Obed Nkambadio0%
Otávio0%
Lohann Doucet0%
Nhoa Sangui0%
Rudy Matondo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Moses Simon14%
Ilan Kebbal13%
Marshall Munetsi12%
Jonathan Ikoné12%
Willem Geubbels11%
Mathieu Cafaro8%
Rudy Matondo8%
Ciro Immobile8%
Jean-Philippe Krasso8%
Pierre Lees Melou5%
Alimami Gory4%
Vincent Marchetti4%
Kevin Trapp0%
Maxime López0%
Hamari Traoré0%
Thibault De Smet0%
Nouha Dicko0%
Julien López0%
Samir Sophian Chergui0%
Timothée Kolodziejczak0%
Tuomas Ollila0%
Adama Camara0%
Moustapha Mbow0%
Obed Nkambadio0%
Otávio0%
Lohann Doucet0%
Diego Coppola0%
Luca Koleosho0%
Nhoa Sangui0%
Nice · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Elye Wahi37%
Zoumana Diallo25%
Terem Moffi20%
Sofiane Diop20%
Kaïl Boudache16%
Djibril Coulibaly14%
Mohamed-Ali Cho11%
Jérémie Boga10%
Ali Abdi9%
Kevin Carlos Omoruyi6%
Antoine Mendy5%
Tom Louchet5%
Melvin Bard5%
Jonathan Clauss4%
Tiago Gouveia4%
Isak Jansson3%
Hicham Boudaoui3%
Charles Vanhoutte3%
Kojo Peprah Oppong2%
Morgan Sanson2%
Tanguy Ndombélé0%
Yehvann Diouf0%
Maxime Dupé0%
Dante0%
Salis Abdul Samed0%
Badredine Bouanani0%
Everton Pereira0%
Abdulay Juma Bah0%
Gabin Bernardeau0%
Bernard Nguene0%
Brad-Hamilton Mantsounga0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Elye Wahi32%
Charles Vanhoutte26%
Antoine Mendy22%
Hicham Boudaoui22%
Brad-Hamilton Mantsounga20%
Abdulay Juma Bah20%
Tiago Gouveia16%
Salis Abdul Samed14%
Kojo Peprah Oppong14%
Melvin Bard14%
Morgan Sanson13%
Sofiane Diop11%
Dante11%
Kaïl Boudache11%
Isak Jansson10%
Ali Abdi9%
Kevin Carlos Omoruyi9%
Bernard Nguene8%
Mohamed-Ali Cho8%
Maxime Dupé7%
Tom Louchet7%
Jonathan Clauss7%
Yehvann Diouf3%
Tanguy Ndombélé0%
Jérémie Boga0%
Terem Moffi0%
Badredine Bouanani0%
Zoumana Diallo0%
Everton Pereira0%
Gabin Bernardeau0%
Djibril Coulibaly0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jonathan Clauss24%
Mohamed-Ali Cho11%
Elye Wahi11%
Jérémie Boga10%
Charles Vanhoutte8%
Tanguy Ndombélé8%
Sofiane Diop7%
Hicham Boudaoui6%
Dante5%
Tom Louchet5%
Morgan Sanson4%
Salis Abdul Samed4%
Melvin Bard2%
Yehvann Diouf0%
Maxime Dupé0%
Ali Abdi0%
Terem Moffi0%
Isak Jansson0%
Tiago Gouveia0%
Kevin Carlos Omoruyi0%
Antoine Mendy0%
Badredine Bouanani0%
Zoumana Diallo0%
Kojo Peprah Oppong0%
Kaïl Boudache0%
Everton Pereira0%
Abdulay Juma Bah0%
Gabin Bernardeau0%
Bernard Nguene0%
Djibril Coulibaly0%
Brad-Hamilton Mantsounga0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Elye Wahi21%
Sofiane Diop13%
Kevin Carlos Omoruyi9%
Mohamed-Ali Cho8%
Tiago Gouveia8%
Terem Moffi7%
Hicham Boudaoui6%
Ali Abdi6%
Jérémie Boga5%
Isak Jansson3%
Antoine Mendy2%
Tom Louchet2%
Tanguy Ndombélé0%
Morgan Sanson0%
Charles Vanhoutte0%
Yehvann Diouf0%
Maxime Dupé0%
Dante0%
Jonathan Clauss0%
Salis Abdul Samed0%
Melvin Bard0%
Badredine Bouanani0%
Zoumana Diallo0%
Kojo Peprah Oppong0%
Kaïl Boudache0%
Everton Pereira0%
Abdulay Juma Bah0%
Gabin Bernardeau0%
Bernard Nguene0%
Djibril Coulibaly0%
Brad-Hamilton Mantsounga0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (26)
€1477m
MON (26)
€326m
LIL (27)
€312m
STR (32)
€304m
LYO (32)
€293m
REN (26)
€241m
MAR (22)
€225m
LEN (27)
€187m
PF (37)
€176m
NIC (28)
€152m
TOU (24)
€115m
LOR (24)
€87m
AUX (29)
€84m
ANG (23)
€73m
SB2 (20)
€64m
LH (25)
€55m
ET (23)
€36m
LM (26)
€24m
Paris FC's squad is €24m more valuable than Nice's (€176m vs €152m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (10)
€638m
MON (9)
€148m
LIL (13)
€133m
LYO (9)
€122m
STR (13)
€112m
MAR (9)
€91m
REN (8)
€87m
NIC (8)
€62m
PF (13)
€59m
LEN (8)
€52m
ANG (9)
€30m
TOU (7)
€30m
SB2 (6)
€25m
AUX (11)
€23m
LOR (8)
€20m
LH (10)
€9m
ET (7)
€7m
LM (6)
€4m
Paris FC's attack is €2m less valuable than Nice's (€59m vs €62m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (5)
€430m
LIL (4)
€102m
MON (5)
€84m
LYO (8)
€82m
MAR (5)
€68m
STR (6)
€56m
PF (7)
€54m
REN (5)
€44m
TOU (7)
€39m
LOR (5)
€32m
NIC (9)
€31m
AUX (5)
€28m
LEN (5)
€24m
LH (5)
€23m
SB2 (6)
€20m
ANG (3)
€11m
ET (6)
€11m
LM (8)
€5m
Paris FC's midfield is €23m more valuable than Nice's (€54m vs €31m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (11)
€409m
STR (13)
€136m
LEN (14)
€112m
REN (13)
€109m
MON (12)
€93m
LYO (15)
€89m
LIL (10)
€76m
MAR (8)
€66m
PF (17)
€62m
NIC (11)
€60m
TOU (10)
€46m
LOR (11)
€35m
AUX (13)
€33m
ANG (11)
€32m
LH (10)
€23m
SB2 (8)
€19m
ET (10)
€17m
LM (12)
€15m
Paris FC's defence is €2m more valuable than Nice's (€62m vs €60m).
France: Ligue 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 1 stats & trends →
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Lille
Monaco
Lyon
Rennes
Estac Troyes
Lens
Marseille
Angers
Strasbourg
Stade Brestois 29
Paris Saint Germain
Le Mans
Le Havre
Lorient
Toulouse
Auxerre