This highly anticipated matchup in France's Ligue 2 is finely balanced, with the recent form of both teams telling a compelling story. Nancy, coming off a draw against Boulogne, will look to capitalize on Pau's struggles, who are still reeling from four consecutive defeats. However, Pau has shown resilience in their recent form, having won their last match.
The model predicts a 40% chance of Nancy winning, a 30% chance of a draw, and a 30% chance of Pau emerging victorious. The expected total number of goals is 2.5, with a most likely total of 2 goals. The most likely score is a 1-1 draw, occurring with a probability of 14.1%.
Against similar opponents, Pau has averaged 1.31 goals scored and 1.62 conceded at home, while Nancy has averaged 1.17 goals scored and 1.25 conceded away. The model's selection is the away win, and it also suggests taking Over 21.5 fouls (89.4%), Under 3.5 (76.5%), and Over 1.5 (71.8%). Pau has a 30% chance of winning, a 30% chance of drawing, and a 40% chance of losing.
Results analysis
The model’s prediction proved spot on, as Nancy secured a 0-1 away win, extending their winning run. The pre-match favourite, “Away win,” had a 40 % probability and the outcome matched the model’s call. The final score of 0-1 confirmed the away victory. Every suggested pick was settled: Under 7.5 goals hit with a 99.6 % probability, Under 6.5 hit at 98.6 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.5 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 97.5 %, Home under 3.5 goals hit at 97.0 %, Under 5.5 hit at 95.8 %, Over 19.5 fouls hit at 95.3 %, and Away under 3.5 goals hit at 95.2 %. The model’s selections performed consistently, delivering a clean sweep of hits.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
PAU win✗ Miss
30.6%
Avg Implied 39.5% · @ 2.35
Edge
-9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.48
Betano
2.45
Superbet
2.45
Dafabet
2.44
1xBet
2.41
Draw✗ Miss
29.4%
Avg Implied 29.4% · @ 3.16
Edge
-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
3.30
Unibet
3.25
Betfair
3.25
BetVictor
3.25
Pinnacle
3.21
Nancy win✓ Hit
40.1%
Avg Implied 31.1% · @ 2.99
Edge
+9.0%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
3.10
Pinnacle
3.09
Dafabet
3.05
Superbet
3.05
Betano
3.05
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
PAU
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.87
1.08
1.92
1.41
1.82
vs Stronger (1)
3.00
5.00
-
-
3.00
5.00
vs Similar (27)
1.19
1.89
1.08
1.92
1.29
1.86
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
-
-
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Nancy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nancy
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.43
1.29
1.79
1.06
1.12
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
1.50
0.75
1.50
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (23)
1.09
1.48
1.11
2.11
1.07
1.07
vs Weaker (1)
5.00
0.00
5.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (PAU) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
72.6%
@ 1.32+1.8%
Under 1.5
27.4%
@ 3.21-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.36
Betfair
1.36
Betano
1.35
Superbet
1.34
BetVictor
1.33
Under
10Bet
3.50
Unibet
3.35
Bet365
3.25
Betano
3.25
Pinnacle
3.25
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
45.7%
@ 2.01-1.3%
Under 2.5
54.3%
@ 1.78+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.17
Superbet
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Bet365
2.08
888Sport
2.05
Under
SBO
1.98
10Bet
1.91
Unibet
1.81
Betano
1.80
1xBet
1.78
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.3%
@ 3.56-2.0%
Under 3.5
75.7%
@ 1.27+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.82
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
BetVictor
3.75
888Sport
3.75
Under
10Bet
1.35
Betano
1.31
Unibet
1.30
Pinnacle
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
52.0%
@ 1.76-0.6%
No
48.0%
@ 1.96+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.87
Superbet
1.80
888Sport
1.80
Bet365
1.80
William Hil
1.80
No
10Bet
2.05
Betano
2.02
Unibet
2.00
1xBet
1.98
Superbet
1.95
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%@ 5.86+6.3%
0-1 ✓
9.8%@ 8.63+4.6%
0-0
9.5%@ 8.90+4.4%
1-2
8.6%@ 9.98+4.1%
1-0
8.1%@ 7.37+2.0%
0-2
7.5%@ 13.96+4.2%
2-1
7.3%@ 8.58+2.1%
2-0
5.4%@ 10.73+1.2%
PAU goals ↓
Nancy goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.5%
9.8%
7.5%
3.4%
1.1%
1
8.1%
14%
8.6%
3.9%
1.3%
2
5.4%
7.3%
5.0%
2.2%
0.8%
3
2.1%
2.8%
1.9%
0.9%
0.3%
4
0.6%
0.8%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = PAU goals (down), columns = Nancy goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Nantes
1.93
Saint Etienne
1.75
Rodez
1.67
RED Star FC 93
1.67
Reims
1.67
Metz
1.66
Annecy
1.53
Montpellier
1.47
PAU
1.33
Dunkerque
1.28
Sochaux
1.13
Guingamp
1.11
Grenoble
1.08
Clermont Foot
1.06
Dijon
1.04
Nancy
1.03
Boulogne
1.03
Laval
0.97
PAU is 0.31 points better than Nancy in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.03).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Nantes
1.82
Saint Etienne
1.72
Metz
1.56
Dunkerque
1.56
Reims
1.56
PAU
1.42
Annecy
1.42
RED Star FC 93
1.36
Rodez
1.31
Guingamp
1.22
Montpellier
1.19
Clermont Foot
1.11
Sochaux
1.06
Boulogne
1.03
Nancy
1.00
Dijon
0.98
Grenoble
0.92
Laval
0.84
PAU is 0.42 goals better than Nancy in terms of goals scored per game (1.42 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Nantes
0.85
Montpellier
0.92
Metz
0.99
Reims
1.03
Saint Etienne
1.11
RED Star FC 93
1.12
Rodez
1.14
Annecy
1.14
Grenoble
1.19
Dunkerque
1.28
Clermont Foot
1.31
Laval
1.32
Sochaux
1.45
Boulogne
1.47
Nancy
1.53
Guingamp
1.56
Dijon
1.57
PAU
1.81
PAU is 0.28 goals worse than Nancy in terms of goals conceded per game (1.81 vs 1.53).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Saint Etienne
59%
Reims
58%
Dunkerque
57%
Guingamp
56%
RED Star FC 93
54%
Montpellier
52%
PAU
51%
Clermont Foot
50%
Laval
47%
Boulogne
46%
Annecy
45%
Grenoble
44%
Nancy
42%
Rodez
40%
PAU is 9.7 percentage points better than Nancy in terms of average possession (51% vs 42%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
PAU
For 3.7 · Against 4.3 · Total 8.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.4 · Against 14.2 · Total 24.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Nancy
For 3.5 · Against 4.3 · Total 7.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.9 · Against 18.1 · Total 30.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
PAU
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.6
9.4
4.0
4.4
3.6
25.4
25.8
25.0
vs Stronger (3)
8.0
9.0
7.0
2.3
5.0
1.0
13.0
23.0
8.0
vs Similar (44)
9.7
9.7
9.7
4.3
4.4
4.1
26.0
25.9
26.3
vs Weaker (3)
7.5
-
7.5
2.0
-
2.0
29.5
-
29.5
% over line
40%
48%
32%
68%
80%
56%
73%
72%
74%
% under line
60%
52%
68%
32%
20%
44%
27%
28%
26%
This opponent (Nancy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nancy
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.3
9.4
3.6
3.4
3.8
29.2
29.3
29.0
vs Stronger (9)
8.7
9.6
7.5
5.3
5.4
5.2
31.4
32.4
30.2
vs Similar (39)
9.5
9.2
9.8
3.4
3.1
3.7
28.6
28.4
28.7
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
56%
50%
61%
46%
38%
54%
91%
95%
87%
% under line
44%
50%
39%
54%
62%
46%
9%
5%
13%
This opponent (PAU) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Laval
10.4
Rodez
9.9
Grenoble
9.7
Montpellier
9.6
Nancy
9.5
Saint Etienne
9.5
PAU
9.4
Metz
9.4
Nantes
9.3
Dijon
9.3
Clermont Foot
9.1
Sochaux
9.1
Guingamp
9.0
Reims
8.7
Boulogne
8.7
Dunkerque
8.5
Annecy
8.4
RED Star FC 93
8.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Guingamp
4.6
PAU
4.5
Nantes
4.5
Boulogne
4.3
Annecy
4.2
Sochaux
4.2
Montpellier
4.2
Rodez
4.1
Reims
4.1
Clermont Foot
4.0
Laval
4.0
Dunkerque
4.0
Nancy
4.0
Dijon
3.8
Metz
3.8
RED Star FC 93
3.8
Saint Etienne
3.8
Grenoble
3.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Montpellier
29.3
Nancy
28.9
Annecy
28.7
Boulogne
28.2
Laval
28.1
Guingamp
27.8
Dijon
27.5
Clermont Foot
26.8
Nantes
26.6
RED Star FC 93
26.5
Saint Etienne
26.2
Sochaux
26.0
Dunkerque
25.8
Rodez
25.7
PAU
25.7
Grenoble
25.6
Reims
24.8
Metz
22.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
42.1%
@ 2.09-2.2%
Under 9.5
57.9%
@ 1.66+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.16
Pinnacle
2.12
Superbet
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Betano
2.07
Under
Marathonbet
1.70
Betano
1.70
Pinnacle
1.69
Bet365
1.67
Superbet
1.66
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
63.2%
@ 1.88+14.3%
Under 3.5
36.8%
@ 1.80-14.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.88
Under
Superbet
1.80
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
89.3%
Under 21.5
10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
PAU or Draw✗ Miss
59.9%
Avg Implied 68.8% · @ 1.36
Edge
-8.9%
31%
29%
40%
covers PAU + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.40
Superbet
1.38
Betfair
1.36
888Sport
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
PAU or Nancy✓ Hit
70.6%
Avg Implied 71.2% · @ 1.31
Edge
-0.5%
31%
29%
40%
covers PAU + Nancy
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.36
William Hil
1.35
Betano
1.34
Marathonbet
1.33
888Sport
1.33
Draw or Nancy✓ Hit
69.4%
Avg Implied 60.0% · @ 1.56
Edge
+9.4%
31%
29%
40%
covers Draw + Nancy
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.62
SBO
1.60
Betfair
1.57
Betano
1.57
Superbet
1.56
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
PAU over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
68.4%
@ 1.27-4.5%
Under
31.6%
@ 3.43+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Betano
1.29
Under
10Bet
3.80
Unibet
3.60
Pinnacle
3.49
Marathonbet
3.48
Superbet
3.45
PAU over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
32.0%
@ 2.35-7.6%
Under
68.0%
@ 1.54+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.53
Betfair
2.50
888Sport
2.45
BetVictor
2.40
Superbet
2.40
Under
10Bet
1.65
Unibet
1.58
Betano
1.57
Marathonbet
1.55
Pinnacle
1.54
PAU over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
11.0%
@ 5.27-6.6%
Under
89.0%
@ 1.13+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
6.00
Bet365
6.00
1xBet
5.70
Betfair
5.50
BetVictor
5.50
Under
Pinnacle
1.21
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
PAU over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.0%
@ 12.51-4.6%
Under
97.0%
@ 1.03+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
888Sport
17.00
Superbet
14.00
Betfair
10.00
Marathonbet
9.90
Under
888Sport
1.03
Betano
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Nancy over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
74.1%
@ 1.35+5.7%
Under
25.9%
@ 2.94-5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.38
Betano
1.37
1xBet
1.37
Superbet
1.37
888Sport
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
3.01
10Bet
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Marathonbet
2.96
Superbet
2.95
Nancy over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
39.1%
@ 2.75+5.4%
Under
60.9%
@ 1.40-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.01
Betfair
2.88
Superbet
2.80
888Sport
2.80
BetVictor
2.75
Under
Betano
1.44
10Bet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.42
1xBet
1.41
Pinnacle
1.41
Nancy over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
15.5%
@ 6.98+2.2%
Under
84.5%
@ 1.08-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
888Sport
7.50
1xBet
7.20
Marathonbet
7.10
Betfair
7.00
Under
Betano
1.11
888Sport
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Nancy over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.8%
@ 18.25-0.4%
Under
95.2%
@ 1.01+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
23.00
Bet365
21.00
Superbet
18.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
888Sport
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to PAU, so a minus line means PAU give that many goals of a start and Nancy receive them. At -1, PAU must win by two or more to land; a one-goal PAU win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (PAU)Actual: Nancy
PAU -2
4.1%
@ 9.80-5.1%
Draw -2
8.9%
@ 6.40-5.2%
Nancy +2
87.1%
@ 1.17+10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
12.00
Superbet
10.00
Bet365
9.50
Unibet
9.00
10Bet
8.50
Draw
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
6.50
Superbet
6.50
Unibet
6.00
10Bet
6.00
Away
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Betfair
1.14
Handicap -1 (PAU)Actual: Nancy
PAU -1
12.9%
@ 4.36-7.5%
Draw -1
17.7%
@ 3.83-5.6%
Nancy +1
69.4%
@ 1.58+13.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
4.55
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.33
10Bet
4.33
Unibet
4.10
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.90
10Bet
3.75
Betfair
3.75
Unibet
3.75
Away
Bet365
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Unibet
1.58
Superbet
1.55
Betfair
1.53
Handicap +1 (PAU)Actual: Draw
PAU +1
59.9%
@ 1.35-6.2%
Draw +1
20.9%
@ 4.60+1.5%
Nancy -1
19.1%
@ 6.19+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.37
Unibet
1.36
Betfair
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Bet365
1.33
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
4.60
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Unibet
4.40
Away
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
10Bet
6.25
Superbet
5.90
Unibet
5.80
Handicap +2 (PAU)Actual: PAU
PAU +2
80.9%
@ 1.09-2.5%
Draw +2
12.2%
@ 8.57+1.6%
Nancy -2
6.9%
@ 15.00+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.09
Betfair
1.08
Draw
Bet365
9.50
Betfair
9.00
Unibet
8.00
Superbet
7.80
Away
Bet365
17.00
Betfair
17.00
Superbet
14.00
Unibet
12.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
PAU
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.93
0.62
0.85
0.59
1.00
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
2.00
-
-
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (27)
0.56
0.96
0.62
0.85
0.50
1.07
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
-
-
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Nancy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nancy
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.47
0.64
0.57
0.31
0.38
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
0.67
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.43
0.43
0.56
0.67
0.36
0.29
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (PAU) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
67.4%
@ 1.42+1.6%
Under 0.5
32.6%
@ 2.73-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.43
Marathonbet
1.43
Superbet
1.43
BetVictor
1.43
Under
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.86
10Bet
2.80
William Hil
2.80
Superbet
2.77
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
31.0%
@ 2.90-1.1%
Under 1.5
69.0%
@ 1.37+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.08
Betano
3.05
Betfair
3.00
Superbet
3.00
1xBet
2.94
Under
10Bet
1.42
Betano
1.38
Unibet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.37
BetVictor
1.37
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
11.1%
@ 7.60-1.1%
Under 2.5
88.9%
@ 1.06+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
8.00
Marathonbet
7.70
1xBet
7.70
Superbet
7.60
William Hil
7.50
Under
Betano
1.09
William Hil
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Betfair
1.05
Marathonbet
1.03
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
PAU over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
48.4%
@ 2.02+2.6%
Under
51.6%
@ 1.71-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.13
Betano
2.07
1xBet
2.06
Marathonbet
2.06
Superbet
2.05
Under
10Bet
1.80
Unibet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.71
Betano
1.70
Superbet
1.69
PAU over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
12.5%
@ 6.40-1.9%
Under
87.5%
@ 1.08+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.10
1xBet
7.10
Superbet
6.20
Betano
6.10
10Bet
5.50
Under
10Bet
1.11
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
PAU over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.5%
@ 17.33-3.0%
Under
97.5%
@ 1.01+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
21.00
10Bet
19.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Nancy over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
37.5%
@ 2.25-3.7%
Under
62.5%
@ 1.58+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.32
Betano
2.30
Superbet
2.27
Marathonbet
2.26
1xBet
2.26
Under
Pinnacle
1.61
10Bet
1.60
Unibet
1.58
Superbet
1.57
Betano
1.57
Nancy over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.8%
@ 7.72-2.2%
Under
90.2%
@ 1.05+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.60
Marathonbet
8.60
Superbet
7.40
10Bet
7.00
Betano
7.00
Under
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.06
10Bet
1.06
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
Nancy over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.5%
@ 21.17-3.1%
Under
98.5%
@ 1.01+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
28.00
10Bet
23.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
PAU
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.93
0.46
1.08
0.82
0.82
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
3.00
-
-
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (27)
0.63
0.93
0.46
1.08
0.79
0.79
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Nancy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nancy
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.97
0.64
1.21
0.75
0.75
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
0.83
0.25
1.00
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (23)
0.65
1.04
0.56
1.44
0.71
0.79
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (PAU) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
PAU over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PAU over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PAU over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nancy over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nancy over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nancy over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.6%
1.01
Betano
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
1.01
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.5%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
97.0%
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Betano
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.8%
1.02
Betano
1.04
888Sport
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
95.2%
1.01
Betano
1.02
888Sport
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
+0.4%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.2%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.06
10Bet
1.06
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
89.1%
1.08
10Bet
1.12
Pinnacle
1.11
Betano
1.11
Unibet
1.09
Superbet
1.09
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
89.0%
1.13
Pinnacle
1.21
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
+6.6%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.9%
1.06
Betano
1.09
William Hil
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Betfair
1.05
Marathonbet
1.03
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.5%
1.08
10Bet
1.11
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
87.1%
1.17
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Betfair
1.14
+10.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
84.5%
1.08
Betano
1.11
888Sport
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
-2.2%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
80.9%
1.36
Superbet
1.36
-
-
-
-
+14.8%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
80.9%
1.09
Superbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.09
Betfair
1.08
-
-2.5%
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
79.7%
1.22
Superbet
1.27
Betano
1.23
Marathonbet
1.21
1xBet
1.20
Unibet
1.19
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
75.7%
1.27
10Bet
1.35
Betano
1.31
Unibet
1.30
Pinnacle
1.28
Superbet
1.28
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
74.1%
1.35
Pinnacle
1.38
Betano
1.37
1xBet
1.37
Superbet
1.37
888Sport
1.36
+5.7%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
72.6%
1.32
Pinnacle
1.36
Betfair
1.36
Betano
1.35
Superbet
1.34
BetVictor
1.33
+1.8%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
70.6%
1.31
Superbet
1.36
William Hil
1.35
Betano
1.34
Marathonbet
1.33
888Sport
1.33
-0.5%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
PAU
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Babacar Leye50%
Axel Bamba0%
Brice Maubleu0%
Jessy Benet0%
Lorenzo Rajot0%
Gaëtan Paquiez0%
Hacene Benali0%
Alexis Lefebvre0%
Tom Pouilly0%
Tom Saettel0%
Cheikh Fall0%
Luan Gadegbeku0%
Giovani Versini0%
Axel Dodote0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Axel Bamba50%
Gaëtan Paquiez50%
Tom Saettel33%
Giovani Versini33%
Lorenzo Rajot25%
Hacene Benali25%
Axel Dodote25%
Brice Maubleu0%
Jessy Benet0%
Alexis Lefebvre0%
Tom Pouilly0%
Cheikh Fall0%
Luan Gadegbeku0%
Babacar Leye0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jessy Benet25%
Lorenzo Rajot25%
Axel Bamba0%
Brice Maubleu0%
Gaëtan Paquiez0%
Hacene Benali0%
Alexis Lefebvre0%
Tom Pouilly0%
Tom Saettel0%
Cheikh Fall0%
Luan Gadegbeku0%
Babacar Leye0%
Giovani Versini0%
Axel Dodote0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Cheikh Fall50%
Babacar Leye25%
Axel Bamba0%
Brice Maubleu0%
Jessy Benet0%
Lorenzo Rajot0%
Gaëtan Paquiez0%
Hacene Benali0%
Alexis Lefebvre0%
Tom Pouilly0%
Tom Saettel0%
Luan Gadegbeku0%
Giovani Versini0%
Axel Dodote0%
Nancy
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Brandon Bokangu50%
Nehemiah Fernandez25%
Enzo Basilio0%
Elydjah Mendy0%
Zakaria Fdaouch0%
Mamadou Fofana0%
Nordine Kandil0%
Walid Bouabdelli0%
Héliohdino Tavares0%
Ilyes Housni0%
Enzo Tacafred0%
Noam Obougou0%
Kouroufia Kébé0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nehemiah Fernandez50%
Héliohdino Tavares33%
Enzo Tacafred25%
Enzo Basilio0%
Elydjah Mendy0%
Zakaria Fdaouch0%
Mamadou Fofana0%
Nordine Kandil0%
Walid Bouabdelli0%
Brandon Bokangu0%
Ilyes Housni0%
Noam Obougou0%
Kouroufia Kébé0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ilyes Housni50%
Zakaria Fdaouch25%
Enzo Basilio0%
Elydjah Mendy0%
Mamadou Fofana0%
Nordine Kandil0%
Walid Bouabdelli0%
Brandon Bokangu0%
Nehemiah Fernandez0%
Héliohdino Tavares0%
Enzo Tacafred0%
Noam Obougou0%
Kouroufia Kébé0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Brandon Bokangu50%
Enzo Basilio0%
Elydjah Mendy0%
Zakaria Fdaouch0%
Mamadou Fofana0%
Nordine Kandil0%
Walid Bouabdelli0%
Nehemiah Fernandez0%
Héliohdino Tavares0%
Ilyes Housni0%
Enzo Tacafred0%
Noam Obougou0%
Kouroufia Kébé0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SE (30)
€93m
NAN (25)
€82m
REI (30)
€72m
MET (26)
€43m
MON (24)
€29m
ROD (23)
€15m
CF (21)
€15m
RSF (22)
€15m
PAU (20)
€14m
NAN (26)
€13m
GRE (27)
€12m
GUI (20)
€11m
DUN (21)
€11m
ANN (21)
€10m
LAV (24)
€9m
BOU (23)
€8m
SOC (20)
€7m
DIJ (20)
€5m
PAU and Nancy have a similar squad value (both €14m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SE (10)
€54m
REI (12)
€38m
NAN (8)
€31m
MET (11)
€17m
MON (9)
€11m
PAU (6)
€6m
GRE (12)
€5m
NAN (9)
€5m
DUN (7)
€4m
RSF (6)
€4m
ROD (7)
€4m
GUI (4)
€3m
ANN (7)
€3m
SOC (8)
€3m
BOU (6)
€2m
CF (5)
€2m
LAV (7)
€2m
DIJ (7)
€1m
PAU's attack is €1m more valuable than Nancy's (€6m vs €5m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MET (5)
€18m
NAN (7)
€16m
REI (6)
€13m
SE (7)
€11m
MON (5)
€6m
GUI (8)
€4m
ROD (6)
€4m
RSF (5)
€3m
ANN (6)
€3m
LAV (7)
€3m
GRE (5)
€3m
CF (4)
€3m
BOU (6)
€3m
NAN (6)
€2m
PAU (4)
€2m
DIJ (6)
€2m
DUN (5)
€1m
SOC (3)
€1m
PAU and Nancy have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NAN (10)
€34m
SE (13)
€28m
REI (12)
€21m
MON (10)
€12m
CF (12)
€10m
MET (10)
€8m
ROD (10)
€7m
RSF (11)
€7m
NAN (11)
€6m
PAU (10)
€6m
DUN (9)
€5m
LAV (10)
€4m
ANN (8)
€4m
GRE (10)
€4m
SOC (9)
€3m
BOU (11)
€3m
GUI (8)
€3m
DIJ (7)
€2m
PAU and Nancy have a similar defence value (both €6m).
France: Ligue 2 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 2 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Saint Etienne
Reims
Montpellier
Rodez
Annecy
Metz
RED Star FC 93
Sochaux
Dunkerque
Guingamp
Grenoble
Laval
Boulogne
Clermont Foot
Dijon
Nantes