PEC Zwolle’s recent five match run of one win and four losses has them looking fragile at home, yet the model still favours an NEC Nijmegen victory with a 52% chance, followed by a 26% draw and a 23% home win. The expected total goals sit at 2.9, with the most likely total of two goals occurring 24% of the time. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.1% probability. PEC Zwolle averages 1.7 goals scored and 1.0 conceded against similarly ranked opponents, while NEC Nijmegen, on the road, averages 1.0 scored and 1.33 conceded. The model’s suggested picks are: Home under 2.5 HT goals99.0%, Under 7.599.0%, Home under 2.5 2H goals97.6%, Under 6.597.0%, Home under 3.5 goals96.5%, Away under 2.5 HT goals95.9%, Away under 2.5 2H goals92.8%, and Under 5.592.3%. Each pick carries the stated edge percentage.
Results analysis
The updated form story shows PEC Zwolle coming off a defeat, while NEC Nijmegen arrive on a win, setting the stage for a tight encounter. The final score was 1-3, an away win that matched the model’s pick. The model had named “Away win” as the favourite with a 52% probability, and this call proved correct. The suggested selections were all accurate: Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 99%, Under 7.5 hit at 99%, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.6%, Under 6.5 hit at 97%, Home under 3.5 goals hit at 96.5%, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 95.9%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 92.8%, and Under 5.5 hit at 92.3%. The model’s predictions delivered a clean sweep of hits.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
PEC Zwolle win✗ Miss
22.8%
Avg Implied 25.9% · @ 3.64
Edge
-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
4.40
SBO
3.72
Betano
3.70
Dafabet
3.65
1xBet
3.64
Draw✗ Miss
25.5%
Avg Implied 23.1% · @ 4.07
Edge
+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.33
10Bet
4.30
1xBet
4.22
Betano
4.20
Dafabet
4.10
NEC Nijmegen win✓ Hit
51.6%
Avg Implied 51.0% · @ 1.84
Edge
+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.93
Pinnacle
1.92
Dafabet
1.91
Bet365
1.90
Superbet
1.90
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
PEC Zwolle
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
2.10
1.40
1.20
1.47
3.00
vs Stronger (10)
0.90
2.50
0.80
1.60
1.00
3.40
vs Similar (19)
1.58
1.95
1.70
1.00
1.44
3.00
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
1.00
-
-
4.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (NEC Nijmegen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
NEC Nijmegen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.57
1.80
1.53
1.87
1.60
vs Stronger (11)
1.45
1.91
1.60
1.80
1.33
2.00
vs Similar (9)
1.89
1.44
2.20
1.60
1.50
1.25
vs Weaker (10)
2.20
1.30
1.60
1.20
2.80
1.40
Clean sheet %
13% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (PEC Zwolle) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.6%
@ 1.10-5.4%
Under 1.5
20.4%
@ 6.26+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.14
Pinnacle
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Under
Pinnacle
6.67
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
BetVictor
6.50
Unibet
6.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
55.3%
@ 1.40-11.7%
Under 2.5
44.7%
@ 2.84+11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
10Bet
1.44
Superbet
1.43
Pinnacle
1.43
Unibet
1.41
Under
Pinnacle
2.93
Betano
2.92
BetVictor
2.90
Bet365
2.88
Betfair
2.88
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
33.0%
@ 2.04-13.4%
Under 3.5
67.0%
@ 1.76+13.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.10
SBO
2.09
Pinnacle
2.08
Unibet
2.06
Superbet
2.05
Under
Betano
1.82
Pinnacle
1.81
1xBet
1.80
Betfair
1.80
Superbet
1.78
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.1%
@ 1.40-9.2%
No
42.9%
@ 2.75+9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
10Bet
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Superbet
1.41
Betano
1.40
Betfair
1.40
No
BetVictor
2.88
Betfair
2.88
1xBet
2.81
Betano
2.80
Marathonbet
2.76
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.1%@ 8.12+6.4%
1-2
9.8%@ 8.05+4.1%
0-2
8.7%@ 11.51+4.7%
0-1
8.7%@ 11.33+4.7%
0-0
6.6%@ 19.96+4.3%
2-1
6.2%@ 12.02+2.3%
1-3 ✓
5.8%@ 11.66+1.8%
2-2
5.5%@ 10.55+1.1%
PEC Zwolle goals ↓
NEC Nijmegen goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.6%
8.7%
8.7%
5.2%
2.3%
1
5.1%
12%
9.8%
5.8%
2.6%
2
3.5%
6.2%
5.5%
3.2%
1.4%
3
1.3%
2.3%
2.0%
1.2%
0.5%
4
0.4%
0.6%
0.6%
0.3%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = PEC Zwolle goals (down), columns = NEC Nijmegen goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.47
Feyenoord
1.91
NEC Nijmegen
1.74
Twente
1.71
Ajax
1.67
Utrecht
1.58
AZ Alkmaar
1.53
Heerenveen
1.42
Groningen
1.37
Sparta Rotterdam
1.26
Fortuna Sittard
1.15
Willem II
1.14
Excelsior
1.12
GO Ahead Eagles
1.12
Telstar
1.09
PEC Zwolle
1.09
ADO Den Haag
1.08
Cambuur
1.03
PEC Zwolle is 0.65 points worse than NEC Nijmegen in terms of average points per game (1.09 vs 1.74).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.97
NEC Nijmegen
2.26
Feyenoord
2.06
Ajax
1.78
Twente
1.74
AZ Alkmaar
1.71
Heerenveen
1.64
Utrecht
1.61
GO Ahead Eagles
1.59
Telstar
1.44
Fortuna Sittard
1.44
Groningen
1.40
Willem II
1.32
PEC Zwolle
1.29
Excelsior
1.26
ADO Den Haag
1.25
Cambuur
1.20
Sparta Rotterdam
1.18
PEC Zwolle is 0.97 goals worse than NEC Nijmegen in terms of goals scored per game (1.29 vs 2.26).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ajax
1.14
Twente
1.18
Utrecht
1.22
Feyenoord
1.29
PSV Eindhoven
1.32
Groningen
1.34
AZ Alkmaar
1.50
NEC Nijmegen
1.56
GO Ahead Eagles
1.56
Heerenveen
1.61
Telstar
1.62
Excelsior
1.65
Sparta Rotterdam
1.82
Fortuna Sittard
1.85
Willem II
1.90
ADO Den Haag
2.01
PEC Zwolle
2.09
Cambuur
2.10
PEC Zwolle is 0.53 goals worse than NEC Nijmegen in terms of goals conceded per game (2.09 vs 1.56).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
PSV Eindhoven
61%
NEC Nijmegen
57%
Ajax
56%
Twente
54%
AZ Alkmaar
53%
Feyenoord
53%
Heerenveen
51%
Groningen
50%
GO Ahead Eagles
49%
Excelsior
48%
Sparta Rotterdam
47%
Utrecht
47%
Telstar
45%
PEC Zwolle
45%
Fortuna Sittard
45%
PEC Zwolle is 11.7 percentage points worse than NEC Nijmegen in terms of average possession (45% vs 57%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
PEC Zwolle
For 3.5 · Against 5.7 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 1.6 · Total 2.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 10.8 · Total 22.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
NEC Nijmegen
For 6.6 · Against 3.1 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.6 · Against 11.7 · Total 24.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
PEC Zwolle
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
10.0
8.6
3.1
3.5
2.8
22.6
24.3
21.0
vs Stronger (18)
9.5
10.1
8.8
2.8
3.2
2.2
22.4
22.7
22.1
vs Similar (31)
9.1
9.9
8.5
3.3
3.6
3.1
23.0
25.5
20.9
vs Weaker (1)
9.0
-
9.0
2.0
-
2.0
14.0
-
14.0
% over line
44%
54%
35%
44%
50%
38%
60%
79%
42%
% under line
56%
46%
65%
56%
50%
62%
40%
21%
58%
This opponent (NEC Nijmegen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
NEC Nijmegen
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
10.0
9.6
3.8
4.0
3.6
23.8
23.6
24.0
vs Stronger (15)
9.2
8.6
9.8
4.9
6.1
3.8
24.7
26.1
23.5
vs Similar (20)
10.6
10.8
10.5
3.6
3.2
3.9
24.3
22.9
25.2
vs Weaker (15)
9.4
10.6
8.0
2.8
2.9
2.7
22.3
22.1
22.4
% over line
50%
43%
56%
46%
52%
41%
64%
57%
70%
% under line
50%
57%
44%
54%
48%
59%
36%
43%
30%
This opponent (PEC Zwolle) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
PSV Eindhoven
11.2
GO Ahead Eagles
11.2
Fortuna Sittard
10.8
Sparta Rotterdam
10.8
Telstar
10.6
Willem II
10.6
AZ Alkmaar
10.5
ADO Den Haag
10.4
Groningen
10.1
Cambuur
10.1
Feyenoord
10.0
Heerenveen
10.0
Twente
9.9
NEC Nijmegen
9.8
Utrecht
9.7
Ajax
9.7
Excelsior
9.5
PEC Zwolle
9.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
NEC Nijmegen
4.0
Cambuur
4.0
AZ Alkmaar
3.9
Twente
3.8
Sparta Rotterdam
3.8
Feyenoord
3.8
ADO Den Haag
3.7
Utrecht
3.7
Ajax
3.7
Groningen
3.6
PSV Eindhoven
3.4
Fortuna Sittard
3.4
PEC Zwolle
3.4
GO Ahead Eagles
3.3
Telstar
3.3
Willem II
3.2
Excelsior
3.1
Heerenveen
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
ADO Den Haag
26.8
Cambuur
26.7
NEC Nijmegen
23.8
Fortuna Sittard
23.4
Utrecht
23.0
Feyenoord
22.8
AZ Alkmaar
22.7
PEC Zwolle
22.6
Willem II
22.5
Telstar
22.5
Ajax
21.8
Excelsior
21.8
Twente
20.8
Groningen
20.7
Sparta Rotterdam
20.5
Heerenveen
20.2
GO Ahead Eagles
19.0
PSV Eindhoven
18.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
54.7%
@ 1.62-2.3%
Under 9.5
45.3%
@ 2.15+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.67
Betano
1.65
Pinnacle
1.65
1xBet
1.61
Unibet
1.60
Under
Superbet
2.22
Pinnacle
2.17
Unibet
2.16
Betano
2.15
Marathonbet
2.15
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
44.9%
@ 1.97-2.1%
Under 3.5
55.1%
@ 1.75+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.15
Superbet
1.95
Unibet
1.80
Under
Unibet
1.86
Superbet
1.73
Betano
1.65
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
63.8%
Under 21.5
36.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
PEC Zwolle or Draw✗ Miss
51.9%
Avg Implied 48.7% · @ 1.93
Edge
+3.2%
23%
26%
52%
covers PEC Zwolle + Draw
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
2.15
SBO
2.03
Betano
1.95
1xBet
1.94
Bet365
1.91
PEC Zwolle or NEC Nijmegen✓ Hit
74.0%
Avg Implied 77.4% · @ 1.21
Edge
-3.4%
23%
26%
52%
covers PEC Zwolle + NEC Nijmegen
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.25
Betano
1.24
Unibet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
William Hil
1.22
Draw or NEC Nijmegen✓ Hit
74.1%
Avg Implied 73.9% · @ 1.27
Edge
+0.1%
23%
26%
52%
covers Draw + NEC Nijmegen
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.31
Betfair
1.30
1xBet
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Superbet
1.29
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
PEC Zwolle over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
70.3%
@ 1.24-5.0%
Under
29.7%
@ 3.75+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.30
Superbet
1.25
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Under
Pinnacle
4.06
Betfair
4.00
Marathonbet
3.84
BetVictor
3.80
1xBet
3.75
PEC Zwolle over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
34.2%
@ 2.20-8.3%
Under
65.8%
@ 1.63+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.55
Pinnacle
2.23
Bet365
2.20
Marathonbet
2.19
1xBet
2.19
Under
Pinnacle
1.69
Betfair
1.67
BetVictor
1.65
1xBet
1.65
Betano
1.65
PEC Zwolle over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
12.3%
@ 4.93-6.5%
Under
87.7%
@ 1.15+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
5.75
Bet365
5.50
1xBet
5.00
Marathonbet
5.00
BetVictor
4.75
Under
Betano
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Superbet
1.17
BetVictor
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
PEC Zwolle over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.5%
@ 11.19-5.0%
Under
96.5%
@ 1.03+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
11.00
Betfair
10.00
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Bet365
1.03
NEC Nijmegen over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
82.0%
@ 1.09-2.8%
Under
18.0%
@ 6.11+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Superbet
1.10
BetVictor
1.09
Under
1xBet
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Superbet
6.20
Betfair
6.00
BetVictor
6.00
NEC Nijmegen over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
51.2%
@ 1.54-9.4%
Under
48.8%
@ 2.37+9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.60
Bet365
1.57
Superbet
1.56
Betano
1.55
Unibet
1.54
Under
10Bet
2.50
Pinnacle
2.43
Marathonbet
2.39
1xBet
2.39
Betfair
2.38
NEC Nijmegen over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
24.7%
@ 2.71-9.8%
Under
75.3%
@ 1.42+9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.86
Betfair
2.75
Bet365
2.75
BetVictor
2.75
Superbet
2.72
Under
10Bet
1.48
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.43
Superbet
1.43
Marathonbet
1.43
NEC Nijmegen over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
9.6%
@ 5.32-8.0%
Under
90.4%
@ 1.13+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.65
1xBet
5.65
Unibet
5.50
Under
Pinnacle
1.21
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.15
BetVictor
1.13
Superbet
1.13
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to PEC Zwolle, so a minus line means PEC Zwolle give that many goals of a start and NEC Nijmegen receive them. At -1, PEC Zwolle must win by two or more to land; a one-goal PEC Zwolle win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (PEC Zwolle)Actual: NEC Nijmegen
PEC Zwolle -2
3.5%
@ 15.80-2.2%
Draw -2
7.5%
@ 9.84-1.8%
NEC Nijmegen +2
89.0%
@ 1.07+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
17.00
Bet365
17.00
Unibet
16.00
Betfair
15.00
Superbet
14.00
Draw
Bet365
11.00
Unibet
10.50
Betfair
10.00
10Bet
9.00
Superbet
8.70
Away
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.08
Betfair
1.07
Unibet
1.05
10Bet
1.05
Handicap -1 (PEC Zwolle)Actual: NEC Nijmegen
PEC Zwolle -1
11.0%
@ 7.27-1.4%
Draw -1
14.9%
@ 5.70-0.9%
NEC Nijmegen +1
74.1%
@ 1.25+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
8.50
Marathonbet
7.10
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
7.00
Unibet
6.75
Draw
Bet365
6.00
10Bet
6.00
Marathonbet
5.70
Betfair
5.50
Unibet
5.30
Away
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Unibet
1.27
Betfair
1.25
10Bet
1.20
Handicap +1 (PEC Zwolle)Actual: NEC Nijmegen
PEC Zwolle +1
51.9%
@ 1.92+4.9%
Draw +1
21.6%
@ 3.96-1.2%
NEC Nijmegen -1
26.5%
@ 2.98-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
2.15
Marathonbet
1.91
Unibet
1.90
Superbet
1.88
Betfair
1.83
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.05
Betfair
4.00
Superbet
3.90
10Bet
3.75
Away
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.10
Unibet
3.00
Superbet
3.00
Marathonbet
2.98
Handicap +2 (PEC Zwolle)Actual: Draw
PEC Zwolle +2
73.5%
@ 1.34+6.5%
Draw +2
15.0%
@ 5.28-2.1%
NEC Nijmegen -2
11.5%
@ 5.65-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.45
Superbet
1.34
Unibet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.31
Draw
Marathonbet
5.65
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Superbet
5.20
Unibet
5.10
Away
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.75
Unibet
5.60
Superbet
5.55
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
PEC Zwolle
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.80
0.93
0.27
0.53
1.33
vs Stronger (10)
0.40
0.70
0.60
0.00
0.20
1.40
vs Similar (19)
0.84
0.84
1.10
0.40
0.56
1.33
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (NEC Nijmegen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
NEC Nijmegen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.93
0.73
1.13
0.80
0.73
vs Stronger (11)
0.64
1.18
0.60
1.40
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (9)
0.89
1.00
1.20
1.20
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (10)
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.80
1.20
0.40
Clean sheet %
30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (PEC Zwolle) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
70.2%
@ 1.21-7.0%
Under 0.5
29.8%
@ 4.07+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.22
Unibet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
William Hil
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.50
William Hil
4.20
Superbet
4.10
Marathonbet
4.10
1xBet
4.10
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
33.3%
@ 2.04-12.5%
Under 1.5
66.7%
@ 1.73+12.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.12
Bet365
2.10
Pinnacle
2.10
SBO
2.09
Unibet
2.07
Under
10Bet
1.77
Superbet
1.76
Pinnacle
1.76
SBO
1.73
William Hil
1.73
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
12.5%
@ 4.31-9.0%
Under 2.5
87.5%
@ 1.18+9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Unibet
4.40
Marathonbet
4.33
1xBet
4.33
Under
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.21
William Hil
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.18
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
PEC Zwolle over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
39.5%
@ 1.98-7.5%
Under
60.5%
@ 1.76+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.05
Pinnacle
2.01
Betano
2.00
Unibet
1.98
1xBet
1.96
Under
Pinnacle
1.81
Superbet
1.76
Marathonbet
1.75
1xBet
1.75
Betano
1.75
PEC Zwolle over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.1%
@ 5.97-6.3%
Under
90.9%
@ 1.09+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.40
10Bet
6.25
1xBet
6.00
Unibet
5.80
Superbet
5.75
Under
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.10
Unibet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
PEC Zwolle over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.0%
@ 15.38-5.2%
Under
99.0%
@ 1.01+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
19.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
NEC Nijmegen over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
47.8%
@ 1.57-11.7%
Under
52.2%
@ 2.31+11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.60
Pinnacle
1.60
Unibet
1.60
1xBet
1.57
Superbet
1.56
Under
10Bet
2.50
Pinnacle
2.36
Superbet
2.27
1xBet
2.25
Betano
2.25
NEC Nijmegen over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
15.5%
@ 3.70-9.5%
Under
84.5%
@ 1.23+9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.90
Marathonbet
3.84
Betano
3.75
1xBet
3.70
Superbet
3.65
Under
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.24
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.22
Unibet
1.21
NEC Nijmegen over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.1%
@ 9.86-5.4%
Under
95.9%
@ 1.03+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
11.00
1xBet
10.00
Superbet
9.70
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
Unibet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
PEC Zwolle
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.30
0.47
0.93
0.93
1.67
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
1.80
0.20
1.60
0.80
2.00
vs Similar (19)
0.74
1.11
0.60
0.60
0.89
1.67
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (NEC Nijmegen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
NEC Nijmegen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.63
1.07
0.40
1.07
0.87
vs Stronger (11)
0.82
0.73
1.00
0.40
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (9)
1.00
0.44
1.00
0.40
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (10)
1.40
0.70
1.20
0.40
1.60
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (PEC Zwolle) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
81.7%
@ 1.11-2.0%
Under 0.5
18.3%
@ 5.72+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Under
1xBet
6.10
Bet365
6.00
Unibet
5.80
Superbet
5.80
Marathonbet
5.70
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
49.7%
@ 1.61-8.1%
Under 1.5
50.3%
@ 2.21+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.67
Superbet
1.64
Bet365
1.62
William Hil
1.62
Betano
1.60
Under
Betano
2.32
Unibet
2.23
Superbet
2.22
1xBet
2.21
Marathonbet
2.21
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
21.9%
@ 2.90-10.2%
Under 2.5
78.1%
@ 1.37+10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Superbet
2.95
William Hil
2.90
1xBet
2.88
Under
Betano
1.44
Superbet
1.39
Unibet
1.37
William Hil
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
PEC Zwolle over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
45.8%
@ 1.67-9.7%
Under
54.2%
@ 2.08+9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.69
Superbet
1.67
Marathonbet
1.66
Betano
1.65
Under
Betano
2.15
Superbet
2.07
Marathonbet
2.06
1xBet
2.04
PEC Zwolle over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
14.5%
@ 4.47-6.2%
Under
85.5%
@ 1.17+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
5.25
Marathonbet
4.50
1xBet
4.40
Superbet
4.25
Betano
3.95
Under
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
10Bet
1.12
PEC Zwolle over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.4%
@ 10.50-6.5%
Under
97.6%
@ 1.03+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
NEC Nijmegen over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
57.7%
@ 1.39-9.4%
Under
42.3%
@ 2.82+9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.39
1xBet
1.39
Betano
1.38
Under
Betano
2.90
1xBet
2.80
Superbet
2.77
NEC Nijmegen over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
26.3%
@ 2.74-7.5%
Under
73.7%
@ 1.40+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.82
Marathonbet
2.80
1xBet
2.75
Betano
2.67
10Bet
2.65
Under
Betano
1.44
10Bet
1.42
Superbet
1.38
1xBet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.37
NEC Nijmegen over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
7.2%
@ 6.60-6.8%
Under
92.8%
@ 1.08+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.00
Superbet
6.80
Betano
6.00
Under
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.0%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
99.0%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.6%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
+6.5%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.0%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.5%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
95.9%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Unibet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
92.8%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
-
-
+6.8%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
92.3%
1.11
Betano
1.15
Pinnacle
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Betfair
1.13
Bet365
1.12
+7.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
90.9%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.10
Unibet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
+6.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
90.4%
1.13
Pinnacle
1.21
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.15
BetVictor
1.13
Superbet
1.13
+8.0%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
89.0%
1.07
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.08
Betfair
1.07
Unibet
1.05
10Bet
1.05
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
87.7%
1.15
Betano
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Superbet
1.17
BetVictor
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
+6.5%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.5%
1.18
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.21
William Hil
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.18
+9.0%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
85.5%
1.17
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
10Bet
1.12
+6.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
84.5%
1.23
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.24
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.22
Unibet
1.21
+9.5%
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
82.7%
1.31
Betano
1.35
Superbet
1.33
Betfair
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
Bet365
1.30
+10.9%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
82.0%
1.09
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Superbet
1.10
BetVictor
1.09
-2.8%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.7%
1.11
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.12
William Hil
1.12
-2.0%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
79.6%
1.10
Betano
1.14
Pinnacle
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
-5.4%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
78.1%
1.37
Betano
1.44
Superbet
1.39
Unibet
1.37
William Hil
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
+10.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
75.3%
1.42
10Bet
1.48
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.43
Superbet
1.43
Marathonbet
1.43
+9.8%
✗ Miss
Draw or Away
74.1%
1.27
Betano
1.31
Betfair
1.30
1xBet
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
Superbet
1.29
+0.1%
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
74.1%
1.25
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Unibet
1.27
Betfair
1.25
10Bet
1.20
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
74.0%
1.21
Superbet
1.25
Betano
1.24
Unibet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
William Hil
1.22
-3.4%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
73.8%
1.35
Unibet
1.42
Superbet
1.32
Betano
1.31
-
-
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
73.7%
1.40
Betano
1.44
10Bet
1.42
Superbet
1.38
1xBet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.37
+7.5%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
73.5%
1.34
10Bet
1.45
Superbet
1.34
Unibet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.31
+6.5%
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
70.3%
1.24
10Bet
1.30
Superbet
1.25
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
-5.0%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.2%
1.21
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.22
Unibet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
William Hil
1.20
-7.0%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
PEC Zwolle
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Nick Viergever25%
Koen Kostons25%
Elias Sørensen25%
Ryan Thomas0%
Dylan Mbayo0%
Simon Graves0%
Jasper Schendelaar0%
Odysseus Velanas0%
Thijs Oosting0%
Tobias Sommer0%
Olivier Aertssen0%
Ibrahim Cissoko0%
Damian van der Haar0%
Gabriel Reiziger0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Gabriel Reiziger33%
Ryan Thomas25%
Koen Kostons25%
Olivier Aertssen25%
Nick Viergever0%
Dylan Mbayo0%
Simon Graves0%
Jasper Schendelaar0%
Odysseus Velanas0%
Thijs Oosting0%
Elias Sørensen0%
Tobias Sommer0%
Ibrahim Cissoko0%
Damian van der Haar0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dylan Mbayo25%
Thijs Oosting25%
Nick Viergever0%
Ryan Thomas0%
Simon Graves0%
Jasper Schendelaar0%
Odysseus Velanas0%
Koen Kostons0%
Elias Sørensen0%
Tobias Sommer0%
Olivier Aertssen0%
Ibrahim Cissoko0%
Damian van der Haar0%
Gabriel Reiziger0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Koen Kostons25%
Nick Viergever0%
Ryan Thomas0%
Dylan Mbayo0%
Simon Graves0%
Jasper Schendelaar0%
Odysseus Velanas0%
Thijs Oosting0%
Elias Sørensen0%
Tobias Sommer0%
Olivier Aertssen0%
Ibrahim Cissoko0%
Damian van der Haar0%
Gabriel Reiziger0%
NEC Nijmegen
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kaj Sierhuis40%
Adam Tahaui33%
Bryan Linssen29%
Tjaronn Chery29%
Emre Mor17%
Clement Bischoff14%
Dušan Tadić0%
Philippe Sandler0%
Willum Thor Willumsson0%
Darko Nejašmić0%
Bram Nuytinck0%
Jamiro Monteiro0%
Gonzalo Crettaz0%
Isak Hansen Aarøen0%
Brayann Pereira0%
Noé Lebreton0%
Tobias Storm0%
Deveron Fonville0%
Sami Ouaissa0%
Almugera Kabar0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Brayann Pereira43%
Isak Hansen Aarøen33%
Tobias Storm33%
Willum Thor Willumsson25%
Almugera Kabar25%
Kaj Sierhuis20%
Jamiro Monteiro17%
Dušan Tadić14%
Noé Lebreton14%
Philippe Sandler0%
Darko Nejašmić0%
Bram Nuytinck0%
Bryan Linssen0%
Emre Mor0%
Tjaronn Chery0%
Gonzalo Crettaz0%
Deveron Fonville0%
Sami Ouaissa0%
Clement Bischoff0%
Adam Tahaui0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dušan Tadić57%
Kaj Sierhuis20%
Tjaronn Chery14%
Clement Bischoff14%
Philippe Sandler0%
Willum Thor Willumsson0%
Darko Nejašmić0%
Bram Nuytinck0%
Bryan Linssen0%
Emre Mor0%
Jamiro Monteiro0%
Gonzalo Crettaz0%
Isak Hansen Aarøen0%
Brayann Pereira0%
Noé Lebreton0%
Tobias Storm0%
Deveron Fonville0%
Sami Ouaissa0%
Almugera Kabar0%
Adam Tahaui0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tjaronn Chery57%
Adam Tahaui33%
Bryan Linssen29%
Emre Mor17%
Dušan Tadić0%
Philippe Sandler0%
Willum Thor Willumsson0%
Darko Nejašmić0%
Bram Nuytinck0%
Kaj Sierhuis0%
Jamiro Monteiro0%
Gonzalo Crettaz0%
Isak Hansen Aarøen0%
Brayann Pereira0%
Noé Lebreton0%
Tobias Storm0%
Deveron Fonville0%
Sami Ouaissa0%
Almugera Kabar0%
Clement Bischoff0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (29)
€280m
FEY (30)
€229m
AJA (26)
€173m
AA (32)
€136m
TWE (32)
€87m
UTR (26)
€61m
NN (29)
€54m
HEE (21)
€50m
GRO (24)
€32m
SR (23)
€28m
GAE (25)
€22m
PZ (23)
€21m
FS (20)
€17m
EXC (24)
€16m
ADH (23)
€13m
WI (24)
€13m
CAM (24)
€12m
TEL (21)
€8m
PEC Zwolle's squad is €32m less valuable than NEC Nijmegen's (€21m vs €54m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (11)
€106m
AJA (11)
€95m
FEY (11)
€93m
AA (13)
€61m
TWE (12)
€34m
UTR (10)
€33m
HEE (9)
€24m
NN (11)
€22m
SR (10)
€14m
GRO (7)
€12m
GAE (9)
€9m
PZ (8)
€8m
EXC (9)
€7m
ADH (11)
€7m
FS (6)
€6m
WI (8)
€4m
CAM (10)
€3m
TEL (7)
€3m
PEC Zwolle's attack is €15m less valuable than NEC Nijmegen's (€8m vs €22m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (5)
€60m
FEY (4)
€43m
AA (4)
€21m
AJA (3)
€15m
UTR (6)
€14m
TWE (5)
€13m
HEE (2)
€6m
GRO (5)
€6m
NN (5)
€5m
GAE (4)
€4m
PZ (5)
€4m
WI (4)
€4m
FS (4)
€4m
EXC (4)
€3m
TEL (4)
€2m
SR (2)
€2m
ADH (3)
€1m
CAM (4)
€1m
PEC Zwolle's midfield is €1m less valuable than NEC Nijmegen's (€4m vs €5m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (13)
€115m
FEY (15)
€93m
AJA (12)
€63m
AA (15)
€54m
TWE (15)
€39m
NN (13)
€26m
HEE (10)
€20m
UTR (10)
€15m
GRO (12)
€14m
SR (11)
€12m
PZ (10)
€10m
GAE (12)
€8m
CAM (10)
€8m
FS (10)
€7m
EXC (11)
€6m
WI (12)
€5m
ADH (9)
€5m
TEL (10)
€3m
PEC Zwolle's defence is €16m less valuable than NEC Nijmegen's (€10m vs €26m).
Netherlands: Eredivisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eredivisie stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
AZ Alkmaar
PSV Eindhoven
Feyenoord
Ajax
GO Ahead Eagles
Fortuna Sittard
Twente
Excelsior
Groningen
Heerenveen
Sparta Rotterdam
Telstar
Willem II
ADO Den Haag
Utrecht
Cambuur