This opponent (Farense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Farense
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.33
1.21
1.14
1.19
1.50
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
1.71
0.75
1.25
1.00
2.33
vs Similar (17)
1.18
1.35
1.43
1.14
1.00
1.50
vs Weaker (6)
1.67
0.83
1.33
1.00
2.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Penafiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.3%
Under 1.5
21.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
53.5%
Under 2.5
46.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
31.2%
Under 3.5
68.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
57.8%
No
42.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%
1-2
9.1%
0-1
8.1%
2-1
7.4%
0-2 ✓
7.2%
0-0
7.2%
1-0
6.4%
2-2
5.8%
Penafiel goals ↓
Farense goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.2%
8.1%
7.2%
3.7%
1.4%
1
6.4%
13%
9.1%
4.7%
1.8%
2
4.8%
7.4%
5.8%
3.0%
1.2%
3
2.0%
3.1%
2.4%
1.3%
0.5%
4
0.6%
1.0%
0.8%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Penafiel goals (down), columns = Farense goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Moreirense
2.32
Farense
2.03
Vilaverdense
2.00
Estrela
1.85
Academico Viseu
1.56
FC Porto B
1.50
Mafra
1.38
Vilafranquense
1.35
Feirense
1.35
Torreense
1.29
Oliveirense
1.26
Tondela
1.18
Penafiel
1.15
Leixoes
1.15
Nacional
1.15
Benfica B
1.12
Belenenses
1.00
Trofense
0.94
SC Covilha
0.82
Penafiel is 0.88 points worse than Farense in terms of average points per game (1.15 vs 2.03).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Moreirense
2.26
Farense
1.68
Estrela
1.62
Benfica B
1.53
Oliveirense
1.50
Academico Viseu
1.50
FC Porto B
1.41
Mafra
1.35
Feirense
1.26
Vilafranquense
1.24
Belenenses
1.17
Leixoes
1.12
Torreense
1.12
Penafiel
1.06
Tondela
1.03
Nacional
1.03
Vilaverdense
1.00
SC Covilha
0.91
Trofense
0.91
Penafiel is 0.62 goals worse than Farense in terms of goals scored per game (1.06 vs 1.68).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Vilaverdense
0.50
Farense
1.00
Tondela
1.03
Estrela
1.03
Vilafranquense
1.06
Feirense
1.09
Moreirense
1.12
FC Porto B
1.18
Torreense
1.21
Academico Viseu
1.32
Nacional
1.35
Penafiel
1.38
Leixoes
1.44
Mafra
1.44
Oliveirense
1.47
Trofense
1.50
SC Covilha
1.68
Belenenses
1.69
Benfica B
1.71
Penafiel is 0.38 goals worse than Farense in terms of goals conceded per game (1.38 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Oliveirense
56%
Estrela
54%
Farense
53%
Mafra
53%
Moreirense
53%
Benfica B
52%
Vilafranquense
52%
Academico Viseu
51%
Torreense
51%
Penafiel
50%
FC Porto B
50%
Tondela
48%
Feirense
47%
SC Covilha
47%
Leixoes
46%
Belenenses
46%
Nacional
46%
Trofense
40%
Penafiel is 3.0 percentage points worse than Farense in terms of average possession (50% vs 53%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Penafiel
For 7.0 · Against 3.5 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 3.0 · Total 6.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 18.0 · Against 19.0 · Total 37.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Farense
For 5.1 · Against 5.1 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 3.0 · Total 5.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.8 · Against 15.5 · Total 31.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Penafiel
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (11)
10.5
14.0
7.0
1.1
1.2
1.0
37.0
38.0
36.0
vs Stronger (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
10.5
14.0
7.0
1.3
1.5
1.2
37.0
38.0
36.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
50%
100%
0%
18%
20%
17%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
50%
0%
100%
82%
80%
83%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Farense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Farense
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (44)
10.8
11.2
10.4
4.6
4.5
4.8
33.0
33.3
32.8
vs Stronger (12)
10.0
11.8
8.2
5.7
3.8
7.5
32.6
31.8
33.3
vs Similar (23)
11.2
11.3
11.0
4.7
5.2
4.2
33.0
32.6
33.4
vs Weaker (9)
11.3
9.3
13.3
3.1
3.8
2.2
34.0
38.3
29.7
% over line
61%
61%
61%
68%
64%
73%
97%
100%
94%
% under line
39%
39%
39%
32%
36%
27%
3%
0%
6%
This opponent (Penafiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
FC Porto B
15.5
Estrela
15.0
Leixoes
14.5
Trofense
14.0
SC Covilha
12.3
Torreense
11.5
Benfica B
11.5
Nacional
11.1
Vilafranquense
11.0
Farense
10.8
Penafiel
10.5
Belenenses
10.2
Moreirense
10.1
Feirense
10.0
Tondela
9.8
Academico Viseu
8.0
Oliveirense
8.0
Mafra
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Benfica B
7.5
Oliveirense
7.0
Vilafranquense
7.0
Moreirense
6.6
Torreense
6.5
Academico Viseu
6.5
Mafra
6.3
Belenenses
6.1
Leixoes
6.0
Trofense
6.0
Penafiel
6.0
Tondela
5.8
Farense
5.7
FC Porto B
5.5
Nacional
5.3
Feirense
5.0
Estrela
5.0
SC Covilha
4.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Penafiel
37.0
Feirense
35.6
Torreense
35.0
Farense
33.0
Oliveirense
33.0
Nacional
31.2
Vilafranquense
31.0
Belenenses
30.8
Mafra
29.7
Leixoes
29.5
Tondela
29.4
Moreirense
28.8
Estrela
27.0
FC Porto B
26.0
SC Covilha
24.7
Trofense
24.5
Academico Viseu
22.0
Benfica B
20.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
71.4%
Under 9.5
28.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
90.2%
Under 3.5
9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
96.1%
Under 21.5
3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Penafiel
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.36
0.20
0.60
0.33
0.17
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (9)
0.33
0.33
0.25
0.50
0.40
0.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
73% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Farense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Farense
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.70
0.64
0.57
0.31
0.81
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
1.14
0.75
0.75
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (17)
0.35
0.59
0.57
0.57
0.20
0.60
vs Weaker (6)
0.67
0.50
0.67
0.33
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Penafiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Penafiel over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Farense over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Farense over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Farense over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Penafiel
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.82
0.55
1.20
0.40
0.50
0.67
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (9)
0.89
0.67
1.25
0.50
0.60
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
64% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Farense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Farense
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.63
0.57
0.57
0.88
0.69
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
0.57
0.00
0.50
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (17)
0.82
0.76
0.86
0.57
0.80
0.90
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
0.33
0.67
0.67
1.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Penafiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Penafiel over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Farense over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Farense over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Farense over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 4.5 cards
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 9.5 corners
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Penafiel · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Bruno Pereira29%
Reko22%
Zé Leite17%
Raul Alcaina17%
Goncalo Negrao14%
Álvaro Santos11%
Joseph Sery10%
André Schutte0%
Pedro Sá0%
Ruben Alves0%
Dani Molina0%
João Miguel0%
Cláudio Silva0%
Joan Femenías0%
Davo0%
Iano Simão0%
Teddy Alloh0%
Jaime Sánchez0%
Francisco Ferreira0%
Ibrahima Kébé0%
Helder Suker0%
Soma Anzai0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ruben Alves43%
Pedro Sá38%
Reko33%
Zé Leite33%
Teddy Alloh33%
Francisco Ferreira33%
Cláudio Silva29%
Dani Molina25%
Álvaro Santos22%
Raul Alcaina17%
Jaime Sánchez17%
Bruno Pereira14%
Iano Simão14%
Joan Femenías11%
Davo10%
Joseph Sery10%
André Schutte0%
João Miguel0%
Ibrahima Kébé0%
Helder Suker0%
Soma Anzai0%
Goncalo Negrao0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ruben Alves29%
Zé Leite17%
Álvaro Santos11%
Davo10%
Joseph Sery10%
André Schutte0%
Pedro Sá0%
Reko0%
Dani Molina0%
Bruno Pereira0%
João Miguel0%
Cláudio Silva0%
Joan Femenías0%
Iano Simão0%
Teddy Alloh0%
Raul Alcaina0%
Jaime Sánchez0%
Francisco Ferreira0%
Ibrahima Kébé0%
Helder Suker0%
Soma Anzai0%
Goncalo Negrao0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Soma Anzai20%
Goncalo Negrao14%
André Schutte0%
Pedro Sá0%
Reko0%
Ruben Alves0%
Dani Molina0%
Bruno Pereira0%
João Miguel0%
Cláudio Silva0%
Joan Femenías0%
Davo0%
Iano Simão0%
Zé Leite0%
Teddy Alloh0%
Joseph Sery0%
Raul Alcaina0%
Jaime Sánchez0%
Francisco Ferreira0%
Ibrahima Kébé0%
Helder Suker0%
Álvaro Santos0%
Farense · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Claudio Falcão25%
Anthony Carter25%
Marco Matias14%
Derick Poloni14%
André Candeias12%
Diego Dorregaray0%
Rúben Fernandes0%
Alex Pinto0%
Rui Costa0%
Nikola Gjorgjev0%
Franco Romero0%
Jaime Pinto0%
Darío Poveda0%
Bruno Almeida0%
Yannick Semedo0%
Brian Araújo0%
Toni Herrero0%
Assane Ndiaye Dione0%
Fran Delgado0%
Balla Sangaré0%
Miguel Menino0%
Dário Miranda0%
Alysson Silva0%
Rafinha0%
Lucas D'Agrella0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Claudio Falcão75%
Alysson Silva67%
Franco Romero60%
Alex Pinto50%
André Candeias38%
Fran Delgado33%
Miguel Menino29%
Anthony Carter25%
Yannick Semedo25%
Brian Araújo25%
Rafinha25%
Lucas D'Agrella17%
Marco Matias14%
Jaime Pinto14%
Balla Sangaré12%
Rúben Fernandes11%
Diego Dorregaray0%
Rui Costa0%
Derick Poloni0%
Nikola Gjorgjev0%
Darío Poveda0%
Bruno Almeida0%
Toni Herrero0%
Assane Ndiaye Dione0%
Dário Miranda0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Toni Herrero20%
Derick Poloni14%
Bruno Almeida12%
Diego Dorregaray0%
Marco Matias0%
Claudio Falcão0%
Rúben Fernandes0%
Alex Pinto0%
Anthony Carter0%
Rui Costa0%
Nikola Gjorgjev0%
Franco Romero0%
Jaime Pinto0%
Darío Poveda0%
Yannick Semedo0%
Brian Araújo0%
Assane Ndiaye Dione0%
Fran Delgado0%
Balla Sangaré0%
Miguel Menino0%
Dário Miranda0%
André Candeias0%
Alysson Silva0%
Rafinha0%
Lucas D'Agrella0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Claudio Falcão38%
Marco Matias14%
Balla Sangaré12%
Diego Dorregaray0%
Rúben Fernandes0%
Alex Pinto0%
Anthony Carter0%
Rui Costa0%
Derick Poloni0%
Nikola Gjorgjev0%
Franco Romero0%
Jaime Pinto0%
Darío Poveda0%
Bruno Almeida0%
Yannick Semedo0%
Brian Araújo0%
Toni Herrero0%
Assane Ndiaye Dione0%
Fran Delgado0%
Miguel Menino0%
Dário Miranda0%
André Candeias0%
Alysson Silva0%
Rafinha0%
Lucas D'Agrella0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (26)
€31m
FPB (28)
€29m
MOR (21)
€22m
EST (22)
€20m
NAC (31)
€20m
TOR (32)
€19m
AV (27)
€16m
TON (20)
€10m
FAR (24)
€8m
LEI (21)
€6m
PEN (23)
€5m
FEI (17)
€4m
OLI (7)
€1m
Penafiel's squad is €3m less valuable than Farense's (€5m vs €8m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FPB (10)
€13m
BB (9)
€9m
AV (11)
€8m
TOR (12)
€7m
NAC (12)
€6m
EST (6)
€6m
MOR (5)
€5m
FAR (10)
€3m
TON (7)
€2m
LEI (7)
€2m
PEN (8)
€1m
FEI (6)
€1m
OLI (1)
€0m
Penafiel's attack is €2m less valuable than Farense's (€1m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (7)
€10m
MOR (8)
€8m
FPB (6)
€7m
NAC (8)
€5m
EST (5)
€3m
AV (6)
€3m
TOR (5)
€2m
FAR (3)
€2m
TON (4)
€1m
LEI (3)
€1m
FEI (3)
€1m
PEN (2)
€0m
OLI (1)
€0m
Penafiel's midfield is €1m less valuable than Farense's (€0m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (10)
€13m
EST (11)
€11m
TOR (15)
€10m
MOR (8)
€9m
FPB (12)
€9m
NAC (11)
€9m
TON (9)
€6m
AV (10)
€6m
FAR (11)
€4m
PEN (13)
€3m
FEI (8)
€3m
LEI (11)
€3m
OLI (5)
€1m
Penafiel and Farense have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Portugal: Segunda Liga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Segunda Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Moreirense
Estrela
Academico Viseu
FC Porto B
Mafra
Feirense
Vilafranquense
Torreense
Oliveirense
Tondela
Leixoes
Nacional
Benfica B
Belenenses
Trofense
SC Covilha
Vilaverdense