This opponent (Vilafranquense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vilafranquense
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.38
1.08
1.33
1.42
1.42
0.75
vs Stronger (4)
1.75
1.00
2.00
2.00
1.50
0.00
vs Similar (20)
1.30
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
0.90
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
29% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Penafiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
62.7%
Under 1.5
37.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
34.4%
Under 2.5
65.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
15.7%
Under 3.5
84.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
40.2%
No
59.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1
15.2%
1-1 ✓
13.8%
0-0
13.8%
0-2
10.9%
1-0
8.3%
1-2
8.3%
2-1
4.8%
0-3
4.8%
Penafiel goals ↓
Vilafranquense goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
15%
11%
4.8%
1.6%
1
8.3%
14%
8.3%
3.6%
1.2%
2
3.6%
4.8%
3.1%
1.4%
0.5%
3
0.9%
1.2%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
4
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Penafiel goals (down), columns = Vilafranquense goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Moreirense
2.32
Farense
2.03
Vilaverdense
2.00
Estrela
1.85
Academico Viseu
1.56
FC Porto B
1.50
Mafra
1.38
Vilafranquense
1.35
Feirense
1.35
Torreense
1.29
Oliveirense
1.26
Tondela
1.18
Penafiel
1.15
Leixoes
1.15
Nacional
1.15
Benfica B
1.12
Belenenses
1.00
Trofense
0.94
SC Covilha
0.82
Penafiel is 0.21 points worse than Vilafranquense in terms of average points per game (1.15 vs 1.35).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Moreirense
2.26
Farense
1.68
Estrela
1.62
Benfica B
1.53
Oliveirense
1.50
Academico Viseu
1.50
FC Porto B
1.41
Mafra
1.35
Feirense
1.26
Vilafranquense
1.24
Belenenses
1.17
Leixoes
1.12
Torreense
1.12
Penafiel
1.06
Tondela
1.03
Nacional
1.03
Vilaverdense
1.00
SC Covilha
0.91
Trofense
0.91
Penafiel is 0.18 goals worse than Vilafranquense in terms of goals scored per game (1.06 vs 1.24).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Vilaverdense
0.50
Farense
1.00
Tondela
1.03
Estrela
1.03
Vilafranquense
1.06
Feirense
1.09
Moreirense
1.12
FC Porto B
1.18
Torreense
1.21
Academico Viseu
1.32
Nacional
1.35
Penafiel
1.38
Leixoes
1.44
Mafra
1.44
Oliveirense
1.47
Trofense
1.50
SC Covilha
1.68
Belenenses
1.69
Benfica B
1.71
Penafiel is 0.32 goals worse than Vilafranquense in terms of goals conceded per game (1.38 vs 1.06).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Oliveirense
56%
Estrela
54%
Farense
53%
Mafra
53%
Moreirense
53%
Benfica B
52%
Vilafranquense
52%
Academico Viseu
51%
Torreense
51%
Penafiel
50%
FC Porto B
50%
Tondela
48%
Feirense
47%
SC Covilha
47%
Leixoes
46%
Belenenses
46%
Nacional
46%
Trofense
40%
Penafiel is 1.3 percentage points worse than Vilafranquense in terms of average possession (50% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Penafiel
For 5.3 · Against 3.8 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 3.2 · Total 6.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.6 · Against 16.8 · Total 31.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Vilafranquense
For 4.8 · Against 7.1 · Total 11.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.8 · Against 2.0 · Total 5.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 17.7 · Against 13.1 · Total 30.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Penafiel
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (24)
9.7
11.1
8.5
3.8
3.4
4.1
32.1
33.9
30.5
vs Stronger (5)
7.0
10.0
5.5
3.6
2.0
4.7
28.7
27.0
29.5
vs Similar (19)
10.4
11.3
9.5
3.8
3.7
3.9
32.9
35.0
30.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
47%
57%
38%
58%
55%
62%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
53%
43%
62%
42%
45%
38%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Vilafranquense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vilafranquense
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (24)
10.7
8.1
13.6
3.9
4.0
3.8
32.1
32.6
31.4
vs Stronger (4)
17.0
13.0
21.0
3.0
4.0
2.0
27.0
30.0
24.0
vs Similar (20)
9.7
7.4
12.3
4.1
4.0
4.2
32.8
33.0
32.7
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
47%
25%
71%
54%
58%
50%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
53%
75%
29%
46%
42%
50%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Penafiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Leixoes
12.8
Estrela
12.3
Academico Viseu
11.5
FC Porto B
11.4
Nacional
11.2
Benfica B
11.1
SC Covilha
11.0
Oliveirense
10.9
Farense
10.8
Vilafranquense
10.7
Trofense
10.5
Belenenses
10.4
Moreirense
10.0
Feirense
9.9
Penafiel
9.7
Tondela
9.4
Torreense
9.1
Mafra
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Oliveirense
7.4
Trofense
6.9
Estrela
6.6
Tondela
6.5
Leixoes
6.4
Moreirense
6.4
Belenenses
6.4
FC Porto B
6.3
Vilafranquense
6.3
Torreense
6.1
Farense
6.0
Academico Viseu
6.0
Penafiel
6.0
SC Covilha
5.8
Benfica B
5.8
Mafra
5.8
Nacional
5.5
Feirense
5.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Feirense
35.0
Oliveirense
33.7
Farense
32.6
Trofense
32.3
Vilafranquense
32.1
Penafiel
32.1
Torreense
32.0
Belenenses
31.3
Nacional
31.0
Tondela
30.7
SC Covilha
29.7
Leixoes
29.4
Estrela
29.4
Moreirense
28.8
Mafra
28.8
Academico Viseu
28.1
FC Porto B
27.9
Benfica B
26.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
74.3%
Under 9.5
25.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
85.8%
Under 3.5
14.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
96.7%
Under 21.5
3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Penafiel
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.29
0.42
0.09
0.45
0.46
0.38
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
0.40
0.00
0.50
0.33
0.33
vs Similar (19)
0.32
0.42
0.11
0.44
0.50
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Vilafranquense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vilafranquense
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.58
0.54
0.67
0.83
0.50
0.25
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
0.75
1.50
1.50
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (20)
0.55
0.50
0.50
0.70
0.60
0.30
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
58% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Penafiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Penafiel over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vilafranquense over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vilafranquense over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vilafranquense over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Penafiel
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.75
0.75
0.91
0.55
0.62
0.92
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.60
0.50
0.00
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (19)
0.79
0.79
1.00
0.67
0.60
0.90
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
46% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Vilafranquense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vilafranquense
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.79
0.54
0.67
0.58
0.92
0.50
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
0.25
0.50
0.50
1.50
0.00
vs Similar (20)
0.75
0.60
0.70
0.60
0.80
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
54% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Penafiel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Penafiel over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penafiel over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vilafranquense over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vilafranquense over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vilafranquense over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 9.5 corners
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 4.5 cards
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Penafiel · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Bruno Pereira29%
Reko22%
Zé Leite17%
Raul Alcaina17%
Goncalo Negrao14%
Álvaro Santos11%
Joseph Sery10%
André Schutte0%
Pedro Sá0%
Ruben Alves0%
Dani Molina0%
João Miguel0%
Cláudio Silva0%
Joan Femenías0%
Davo0%
Iano Simão0%
Teddy Alloh0%
Jaime Sánchez0%
Francisco Ferreira0%
Ibrahima Kébé0%
Helder Suker0%
Soma Anzai0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ruben Alves43%
Pedro Sá38%
Reko33%
Zé Leite33%
Teddy Alloh33%
Francisco Ferreira33%
Cláudio Silva29%
Dani Molina25%
Álvaro Santos22%
Raul Alcaina17%
Jaime Sánchez17%
Bruno Pereira14%
Iano Simão14%
Joan Femenías11%
Davo10%
Joseph Sery10%
André Schutte0%
João Miguel0%
Ibrahima Kébé0%
Helder Suker0%
Soma Anzai0%
Goncalo Negrao0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ruben Alves29%
Zé Leite17%
Álvaro Santos11%
Davo10%
Joseph Sery10%
André Schutte0%
Pedro Sá0%
Reko0%
Dani Molina0%
Bruno Pereira0%
João Miguel0%
Cláudio Silva0%
Joan Femenías0%
Iano Simão0%
Teddy Alloh0%
Raul Alcaina0%
Jaime Sánchez0%
Francisco Ferreira0%
Ibrahima Kébé0%
Helder Suker0%
Soma Anzai0%
Goncalo Negrao0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Soma Anzai20%
Goncalo Negrao14%
André Schutte0%
Pedro Sá0%
Reko0%
Ruben Alves0%
Dani Molina0%
Bruno Pereira0%
João Miguel0%
Cláudio Silva0%
Joan Femenías0%
Davo0%
Iano Simão0%
Zé Leite0%
Teddy Alloh0%
Joseph Sery0%
Raul Alcaina0%
Jaime Sánchez0%
Francisco Ferreira0%
Ibrahima Kébé0%
Helder Suker0%
Álvaro Santos0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Portugal: Segunda Liga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Segunda Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Moreirense
Farense
Estrela
Academico Viseu
FC Porto B
Mafra
Feirense
Torreense
Oliveirense
Tondela
Leixoes
Nacional
Benfica B
Belenenses
Trofense
SC Covilha
Vilaverdense