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Penybont vs GAP Connah S Quay FC Result & Analysis

Date: 11/03/2023
Time: 14:30
Final 1-1
Penybont
Penybont
Vs
43%
30%
27%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
GAP Connah S Quay FC
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Wales: Premier League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Penybont win✗ Miss
42.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
30.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC win✗ Miss
26.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

PenybontPenybont

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W13L00D20W51W30W30W00D21W11DA·PON23/12H·CAR26/12A·CAR30/12H·AIR03/01H·CAE07/01A·ABE10/01H·NEW28/01A·BAL11/02H·CAR17/02A·THE25/02
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.600.842.000.921.230.77
vs Stronger (3)0.330.670.000.000.501.00
vs Similar (18)1.561.002.111.111.000.89
vs Weaker (4)2.750.252.500.503.000.00
Clean sheet %40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (GAP Connah S Quay FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GAP Connah S Quay FCGAP Connah S Quay FC

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W11D20W00D00D00D12L11D11D21WH·ABE20/12H·THE23/12H·FLI26/12A·FLI31/12A·NEW07/01A·BAL10/01A·HAV31/01A·NEW11/02H·BAL18/02H·CAR25/02
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.480.681.770.541.170.83
vs Stronger (2)1.001.501.001.001.002.00
vs Similar (16)1.500.561.670.561.290.57
vs Weaker (7)1.570.712.330.331.001.00
Clean sheet %56% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Penybont) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%11%020%128%220%312%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.2%
Under 1.5
31.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
40.4%
Under 2.5
59.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.1%
Under 3.5
79.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.2%
No
52.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
14.3%
1-0
11.9%
0-0
11.3%
2-0
8.6%
0-1
8.6%
2-1
8.5%
1-2
6.4%
0-2
4.9%
Penybont goals ↓
GAP Connah S Quay FC goals →
01234
011%8.6%4.9%1.6%0.4%
112%14%6.4%2.1%0.5%
28.6%8.5%4.2%1.4%0.3%
33.8%3.7%1.8%0.6%0.1%
41.2%1.2%0.6%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Penybont goals (down), columns = GAP Connah S Quay FC goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
The New Saints
2.59
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.91
Penybont
1.81
Cardiff MET
1.61
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.44
Bala Town
1.33
Newtown AFC
1.32
Pontypridd Town
1.28
Caernarfon Town
1.22
Aberystwyth Town
1.19
Flint Town United
1.09
Airbus UK
0.06
Penybont is 0.09 points worse than GAP Connah S Quay FC in terms of average points per game (1.81 vs 1.91).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
The New Saints
3.50
Bala Town
1.61
Penybont
1.59
Caernarfon Town
1.59
Newtown AFC
1.59
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.47
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.41
Flint Town United
1.28
Pontypridd Town
1.28
Aberystwyth Town
1.28
Cardiff MET
1.24
Airbus UK
0.56
Penybont is 0.19 goals better than GAP Connah S Quay FC in terms of goals scored per game (1.59 vs 1.41).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
The New Saints
0.53
GAP Connah S Quay FC
0.72
Penybont
1.00
Bala Town
1.24
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.32
Cardiff MET
1.48
Pontypridd Town
1.62
Flint Town United
1.66
Caernarfon Town
1.69
Newtown AFC
1.74
Aberystwyth Town
2.28
Airbus UK
3.12
Penybont is 0.28 goals worse than GAP Connah S Quay FC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 0.72).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

PenybontPenybont

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D01L00D00D30W20W30W00D10W01LA·PON23/12H·CAR26/12A·CAR30/12H·AIR03/01H·CAE07/01A·ABE10/01H·NEW28/01A·BAL11/02H·CAR17/02A·THE25/02
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.760.400.920.420.620.38
vs Stronger (3)0.000.330.000.000.000.50
vs Similar (18)0.780.441.000.440.560.44
vs Weaker (4)1.250.251.000.501.500.00
Clean sheet %64% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (GAP Connah S Quay FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GAP Connah S Quay FCGAP Connah S Quay FC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D00D00D00D00D12L01L10W10WH·ABE20/12H·THE23/12H·FLI26/12A·FLI31/12A·NEW07/01A·BAL10/01A·HAV31/01A·NEW11/02H·BAL18/02H·CAR25/02
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.640.240.690.080.580.42
vs Stronger (2)0.500.500.000.001.001.00
vs Similar (16)0.690.250.670.110.710.43
vs Weaker (7)0.570.141.000.000.250.25
Clean sheet %80% (+52pp vs league)
This opponent (Penybont) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Penybont over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

PenybontPenybont

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W12L00D20W21W10W00D00D11D10WA·PON23/12H·CAR26/12A·CAR30/12H·AIR03/01H·CAE07/01A·ABE10/01H·NEW28/01A·BAL11/02H·CAR17/02A·THE25/02
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.840.441.080.500.620.38
vs Stronger (3)0.330.330.000.000.500.50
vs Similar (18)0.780.561.110.670.440.44
vs Weaker (4)1.500.001.500.001.500.00
Clean sheet %64% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (GAP Connah S Quay FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GAP Connah S Quay FCGAP Connah S Quay FC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W11D20W00D00D00D00D10W01L11DH·ABE20/12H·THE23/12H·FLI26/12A·FLI31/12A·NEW07/01A·BAL10/01A·HAV31/01A·NEW11/02H·BAL18/02H·CAR25/02
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.840.441.080.460.580.42
vs Stronger (2)0.501.001.001.000.001.00
vs Similar (16)0.810.311.000.440.570.14
vs Weaker (7)1.000.571.330.330.750.75
Clean sheet %64% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Penybont) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Penybont over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Penybont over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
GAP Connah S Quay FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.579.9%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
BT (12)
€1m
FTU (10)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
AT (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
Penybont and GAP Connah S Quay FC have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
BT (4)
€0m
FTU (2)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
Penybont and GAP Connah S Quay FC have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
FTU (3)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
Penybont and GAP Connah S Quay FC have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
PEN (7)
€0m
FTU (5)
€0m
BT (6)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
Penybont and GAP Connah S Quay FC have a similar defence value (both €0m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
0
PEN wins
0
Draws
2
GCS wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Penybont vs GAP Connah S Quay FC · H/A from PEN
DateH/AGameScore
22/10/22HPEN Vs GAP Connah S Quay FC0-1
03/09/22AGAP Connah S Quay FC Vs PEN2-0

PenybontPenybont

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/02/23AThe New Saints Vs PEN1-1
17/02/23HPEN Vs Cardiff MET2-1
11/02/23ABala Town Vs PEN0-0
28/01/23HPEN Vs Newtown AFC3-0
10/01/23AAberystwyth Town Vs PEN0-3
07/01/23HPEN Vs Caernarfon Town5-1
03/01/23HPEN Vs Airbus UK2-0
30/12/22ACardiff MET Vs PEN0-0
26/12/22HPEN Vs Cardiff MET1-3
23/12/22APontypridd Town Vs PEN0-1

GAP Connah S Quay FCGAP Connah S Quay FC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/02/23HGCS Vs Cardiff MET2-1
18/02/23HGCS Vs Bala Town1-1
11/02/23ANewtown AFC Vs GCS1-1
31/01/23AHaverfordwest County AFC Vs GCS2-1
10/01/23ABala Town Vs GCS0-0
07/01/23ANewtown AFC Vs GCS0-0
31/12/22AFlint Town United Vs GCS0-0
26/12/22HGCS Vs Flint Town United2-0
23/12/22HGCS Vs The New Saints1-1
20/12/22HGCS Vs Aberystwyth Town3-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Penybont
Penybont
Wales: Premier League
Recent: 6 Wins / 3 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDWD1.84
HomeLWWWW2.17
AwayWDWDD1.54
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %52%67%38%
AVG goals2.442.922.00
Over 1.5 %76%83%69%
Over 2.5 %44%58%31%
Over 3.5 %20%33%8%
Scored1.602.001.23
Conceded0.840.920.77
BTTS48%58%38%
Clean Sheet40%33%46%
Corners---
Cards---
GAP Connah S Quay FC
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Wales: Premier League
Recent: 3 Wins / 6 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLDDW1.96
HomeWDWDW2.54
AwayDDDLD1.33
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %56%77%33%
AVG goals2.162.312.00
Over 1.5 %68%69%67%
Over 2.5 %36%31%42%
Over 3.5 %12%15%8%
Scored1.481.771.17
Conceded0.680.540.83
BTTS40%38%42%
Clean Sheet56%62%50%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1The New SaintsThe New Saints3283
81%
2.6
11217+95
4.0
81%
62%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1113.50.5
-
2GAP Connah S Quay FCGAP Connah S Quay FC3261
53%
1.9
4523+22
2.1
69%
34%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.40.7
-
3PenybontPenybont3258
50%
1.8
5132+19
2.6
75%
47%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.61.0
-
4Cardiff METCardiff MET3353
48%
1.6
4149-8
2.7
73%
52%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.21.5
-
5Haverfordwest County AFCHaverfordwest County AFC3449
41%
1.4
5045+5
2.8
82%
53%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.51.3
-
6Newtown AFCNewtown AFC3445
38%
1.3
5459-5
3.3
82%
65%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.7
-
7Bala TownBala Town3344
36%
1.3
5341+12
2.8
82%
58%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.61.2
-
8Pontypridd TownPontypridd Town3241
38%
1.3
4152-11
2.9
78%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.6
-
9Caernarfon TownCaernarfon Town3239
38%
1.2
5154-3
3.3
88%
69%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.61.7
-
10Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth Town3238
34%
1.2
4173-32
3.6
91%
75%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.3
-
11Flint Town UnitedFlint Town United3235
28%
1.1
4153-12
2.9
75%
47%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.31.7
-
12Airbus UKAirbus UK322
0%
0.1
18100-82
3.7
91%
78%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.63.1
-
Wales: Premier League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →

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