Pogon Szczecin’s recent draw against Zaglebie Lubin signals a cautious start, while Wisła Plock’s three-game losing streak leaves them fragile on the road. The model’s most divergent view from the market is its confidence that the home side will win, with a 54% probability, compared with 24% for a draw and 21% for an away win. The expected total of 3.0 goals and the most likely scoreline of 1-1 (11.5% chance) suggest a tightly contested match, yet the model still favours Pogon’s victory.
Pogon’s home form shows 1.57 goals scored and 1.07 conceded against similar opponents, whereas Wisła’s away record is 0.85 scored and 1.62 conceded. These figures reinforce the home advantage. The model’s suggested picks include a 99.3% chance of “Away under 2.5 HT goals”, 98.8% for “Under 7.5”, 98.4% for “Away under 2.5 2H goals” with a 7% edge, 97.6% for “Away under 3.5 goals” (6% edge), 96.6% for “Under 6.5” (5% edge), 95.4% for “Home under 2.5 HT goals” (4% edge), 93.3% for “Away under 1.5 HT goals” (4% edge), and 92.4% for “Home +2 handicap” (8% edge). Each selection is presented with its probability and edge where applicable.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Pogon Szczecin win
53.3%
Avg Implied 48.8% · @ 1.90
Edge
+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.95
Dafabet
1.95
Betano
1.95
Pinnacle
1.94
1xBet
1.91
Draw
24.3%
Avg Implied 26.1% · @ 3.55
Edge
-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.70
10Bet
3.65
Dafabet
3.65
Unibet
3.65
Pinnacle
3.63
Wisla Plock win
22.4%
Avg Implied 25.0% · @ 3.70
Edge
-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
4.25
Dafabet
3.80
Pinnacle
3.74
Betfair
3.70
10Bet
3.70
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Pogon Szczecin
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.17
1.56
1.12
0.93
1.21
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.25
1.14
1.57
1.07
0.93
1.21
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.50
1.50
1.50
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Wisla Plock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Wisla Plock
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.43
0.62
1.15
1.18
1.65
vs Stronger (6)
1.50
1.17
1.00
0.50
1.75
1.50
vs Similar (23)
0.70
1.48
0.55
1.27
0.83
1.67
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
2.00
-
-
3.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogon Szczecin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.4%
@ 1.22+6.7%
Under 1.5
17.6%
@ 3.81-6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
10Bet
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
Under
10Bet
4.00
Pinnacle
3.92
Unibet
3.85
BetVictor
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
59.6%
@ 1.77+6.5%
Under 2.5
40.4%
@ 2.00-6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.80
SBO
1.79
Pinnacle
1.79
1xBet
1.78
Marathonbet
1.78
Under
10Bet
2.10
SBO
2.03
Pinnacle
2.02
Bet365
2.00
Betano
2.00
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
37.2%
@ 2.88+5.0%
Under 3.5
62.8%
@ 1.37-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.00
Pinnacle
2.95
BetVictor
2.90
Unibet
2.88
Marathonbet
2.83
Under
10Bet
1.42
Betano
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
BetVictor
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Both teams to score
Yes
60.0%
@ 1.66+4.1%
No
40.0%
@ 2.10-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.70
Unibet
1.67
William Hil
1.67
Marathonbet
1.65
BetVictor
1.65
No
10Bet
2.20
Betano
2.12
1xBet
2.11
BetVictor
2.10
William Hil
2.10
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.3%@ 6.46+4.4%
2-1
9.8%@ 7.80+4.1%
2-0
8.3%@ 9.19+3.4%
1-0
7.7%@ 7.53+1.7%
3-1
6.2%@ 13.34+2.9%
1-2
6.1%@ 11.38+2.1%
2-2
5.8%@ 12.50+2.2%
0-0
5.6%@ 11.11+1.6%
Pogon Szczecin goals ↓
Wisla Plock goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.6%
4.4%
3.2%
1.3%
0.4%
1
7.7%
11%
6.1%
2.4%
0.7%
2
8.3%
9.8%
5.8%
2.3%
0.7%
3
5.3%
6.2%
3.7%
1.4%
0.4%
4
2.5%
3.0%
1.8%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Pogon Szczecin goals (down), columns = Wisla Plock goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lech Poznan
2.60
Gornik Zabrze
2.40
Legia Warszawa
2.00
GKS Katowice
1.80
Jagiellonia
1.80
Wisla Krakow
1.67
Pogon Szczecin
1.60
Zaglebie Lubin
1.60
Korona Kielce
1.60
Cracovia Krakow
1.33
Piast Gliwice
1.17
Radomiak Radom
1.17
Widzew Łódź
1.00
Slask Wroclaw
1.00
Motor Lublin
0.83
Wisla Plock
0.80
Wieczysta Kraków
0.60
Raków Częstochowa
0.00
Pogon Szczecin is 0.80 points better than Wisla Plock in terms of average points per game (1.60 vs 0.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
GKS Katowice
2.40
Gornik Zabrze
2.20
Wisla Krakow
2.00
Lech Poznan
2.00
Legia Warszawa
2.00
Jagiellonia
1.80
Piast Gliwice
1.67
Widzew Łódź
1.67
Wieczysta Kraków
1.60
Pogon Szczecin
1.40
Slask Wroclaw
1.33
Raków Częstochowa
1.20
Korona Kielce
1.20
Radomiak Radom
1.00
Motor Lublin
1.00
Zaglebie Lubin
1.00
Cracovia Krakow
1.00
Wisla Plock
0.60
Pogon Szczecin is 0.80 goals better than Wisla Plock in terms of goals scored per game (1.40 vs 0.60).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Legia Warszawa
0.67
Pogon Szczecin
0.80
Zaglebie Lubin
0.80
Korona Kielce
0.80
Lech Poznan
0.80
Cracovia Krakow
1.17
GKS Katowice
1.20
Gornik Zabrze
1.40
Jagiellonia
1.40
Slask Wroclaw
1.50
Wisla Krakow
1.67
Motor Lublin
1.67
Widzew Łódź
1.67
Wisla Plock
2.00
Piast Gliwice
2.17
Radomiak Radom
2.17
Wieczysta Kraków
2.40
Raków Częstochowa
2.60
Pogon Szczecin is 1.20 goals better than Wisla Plock in terms of goals conceded per game (0.80 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Jagiellonia
58%
Piast Gliwice
56%
Wieczysta Kraków
54%
Lech Poznan
54%
Gornik Zabrze
53%
Raków Częstochowa
53%
Wisla Plock
52%
Legia Warszawa
52%
Wisla Krakow
52%
Radomiak Radom
50%
GKS Katowice
48%
Cracovia Krakow
48%
Korona Kielce
48%
Slask Wroclaw
47%
Zaglebie Lubin
47%
Widzew Łódź
46%
Motor Lublin
46%
Pogon Szczecin
41%
Pogon Szczecin is 11.8 percentage points worse than Wisla Plock in terms of average possession (41% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Pogon Szczecin
For 3.1 · Against 5.0 · Total 8.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.5 · Against 10.6 · Total 25.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Wisla Plock
For 7.6 · Against 4.3 · Total 11.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.9 · Against 12.3 · Total 24.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Pogon Szczecin
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
10.4
10.2
3.6
4.0
3.3
24.1
22.6
25.5
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (43)
10.0
10.0
10.1
3.6
3.8
3.4
24.0
22.1
26.1
vs Weaker (7)
12.0
14.0
11.0
3.6
6.0
2.6
24.8
28.0
23.2
% over line
55%
59%
50%
44%
46%
42%
61%
55%
68%
% under line
45%
41%
50%
56%
54%
58%
39%
45%
32%
This opponent (Wisla Plock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Wisla Plock
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
10.8
8.8
2.8
2.7
2.8
21.8
22.1
21.6
vs Stronger (10)
10.2
12.2
8.6
2.9
2.0
3.8
21.3
18.8
23.4
vs Similar (38)
9.7
10.4
8.9
2.9
3.1
2.7
22.0
22.9
21.0
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
46%
63%
30%
34%
40%
28%
51%
53%
50%
% under line
54%
37%
70%
66%
60%
72%
49%
47%
50%
This opponent (Pogon Szczecin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Wisla Krakow
10.7
Wieczysta Kraków
10.4
Pogon Szczecin
10.3
Lech Poznan
10.3
Zaglebie Lubin
10.2
Slask Wroclaw
10.2
Radomiak Radom
10.2
Korona Kielce
10.2
Gornik Zabrze
10.1
Motor Lublin
10.1
Cracovia Krakow
10.1
Piast Gliwice
10.0
GKS Katowice
9.9
Wisla Plock
9.7
Jagiellonia
9.4
Widzew Łódź
9.2
Legia Warszawa
9.1
Raków Częstochowa
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Widzew Łódź
5.2
Radomiak Radom
5.0
Motor Lublin
4.8
Raków Częstochowa
4.7
Slask Wroclaw
4.6
Zaglebie Lubin
4.6
Jagiellonia
4.6
Cracovia Krakow
4.4
Legia Warszawa
4.3
Pogon Szczecin
4.1
Gornik Zabrze
4.0
Wisla Plock
4.0
Lech Poznan
3.9
Korona Kielce
3.9
Wisla Krakow
3.7
GKS Katowice
3.7
Piast Gliwice
3.6
Wieczysta Kraków
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Radomiak Radom
27.9
Wieczysta Kraków
26.6
Jagiellonia
26.6
Widzew Łódź
26.4
Legia Warszawa
25.9
Wisla Krakow
25.7
Korona Kielce
25.6
Cracovia Krakow
25.3
Motor Lublin
25.2
Raków Częstochowa
24.9
Zaglebie Lubin
24.7
Slask Wroclaw
24.6
Piast Gliwice
24.2
Lech Poznan
24.1
Pogon Szczecin
23.7
GKS Katowice
23.7
Gornik Zabrze
22.8
Wisla Plock
22.8
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
52.1%
@ 1.68-3.0%
Under 9.5
47.9%
@ 2.06+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.75
Bet365
1.73
Unibet
1.68
Marathonbet
1.65
Pinnacle
1.60
Under
Pinnacle
2.26
Marathonbet
2.03
Betano
2.02
Bet365
2.00
Unibet
2.00
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
50.2%
Under 3.5
49.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
60.1%
Under 21.5
39.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Pogon Szczecin or Draw
80.3%
Avg Implied 75.1% · @ 1.24
Edge
+5.3%
53%
24%
22%
covers Pogon Szczecin + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.30
BetVictor
1.25
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Pogon Szczecin or Wisla Plock
76.0%
Avg Implied 74.5% · @ 1.25
Edge
+1.6%
53%
24%
22%
covers Pogon Szczecin + Wisla Plock
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.28
Betfair
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
Draw or Wisla Plock
43.6%
Avg Implied 50.5% · @ 1.84
Edge
-6.9%
53%
24%
22%
covers Draw + Wisla Plock
Best 5 market prices
SBO
1.92
Unibet
1.90
Betano
1.88
10Bet
1.85
Betfair
1.83
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Pogon Szczecin over/under 0.5
Over
85.6%
@ 1.16+5.5%
Under
14.4%
@ 4.64-5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.15
BetVictor
1.15
1xBet
1.14
Under
Betfair
5.00
BetVictor
4.75
10Bet
4.75
Unibet
4.60
Bet365
4.50
Pogon Szczecin over/under 1.5
Over
57.6%
@ 1.84+7.3%
Under
42.4%
@ 1.87-7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.90
1xBet
1.88
Marathonbet
1.88
Betano
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Under
Unibet
1.92
10Bet
1.91
Pinnacle
1.88
Betano
1.87
1xBet
1.86
Pogon Szczecin over/under 2.5
Over
30.6%
@ 3.68+5.4%
Under
69.4%
@ 1.24-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.85
BetVictor
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.75
1xBet
3.74
Under
Unibet
1.26
Betano
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Pogon Szczecin over/under 3.5
Over
13.2%
@ 8.53+2.1%
Under
86.8%
@ 1.06-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
8.50
Betano
7.10
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Wisla Plock over/under 0.5
Over
65.9%
@ 1.39-1.1%
Under
34.1%
@ 2.81+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.43
Bet365
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
Betano
1.40
Under
Pinnacle
2.94
Betfair
2.88
10Bet
2.88
Marathonbet
2.83
Betano
2.82
Wisla Plock over/under 1.5
Over
29.2%
@ 2.91-2.7%
Under
70.8%
@ 1.36+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.05
Bet365
3.00
Pinnacle
2.96
1xBet
2.92
Marathonbet
2.92
Under
10Bet
1.40
Betano
1.40
Pinnacle
1.37
1xBet
1.36
Betfair
1.36
Wisla Plock over/under 2.5
Over
9.5%
@ 7.29-3.3%
Under
90.5%
@ 1.07+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
1xBet
7.80
Marathonbet
7.80
Betfair
7.50
BetVictor
7.00
Under
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.08
BetVictor
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Wisla Plock over/under 3.5
Over
2.4%
@ 17.25-3.2%
Under
97.6%
@ 1.01+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
23.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Pogon Szczecin, so a minus line means Pogon Szczecin give that many goals of a start and Wisla Plock receive them. At -1, Pogon Szczecin must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Pogon Szczecin win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Pogon Szczecin)
Pogon Szczecin -2
16.3%
@ 6.84+3.2%
Draw -2
17.5%
@ 5.36+0.8%
Wisla Plock +2
66.1%
@ 1.28-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
7.50
Marathonbet
7.20
Bet365
7.00
10Bet
6.50
Unibet
6.00
Draw
Marathonbet
5.80
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Unibet
4.75
Away
Unibet
1.32
Bet365
1.30
10Bet
1.28
Betfair
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Handicap -1 (Pogon Szczecin)
Pogon Szczecin -1
33.9%
@ 3.28+6.6%
Draw -1
22.5%
@ 3.66-1.9%
Wisla Plock +1
43.6%
@ 1.84-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Marathonbet
3.34
10Bet
3.30
Unibet
2.95
Draw
Betfair
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.74
10Bet
3.60
Unibet
3.45
Away
Unibet
1.95
10Bet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.82
Betfair
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Handicap +1 (Pogon Szczecin)
Pogon Szczecin +1
80.3%
@ 1.24+7.8%
Draw +1
12.1%
@ 5.46-4.3%
Wisla Plock -1
7.6%
@ 8.07-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Unibet
1.20
Draw
Unibet
5.60
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Away
Unibet
8.50
Marathonbet
8.30
Bet365
8.00
10Bet
7.50
Handicap +2 (Pogon Szczecin)
Pogon Szczecin +2
92.4%
@ 1.06+6.1%
Draw +2
5.4%
@ 10.25-3.5%
Wisla Plock -2
2.2%
@ 19.00-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Draw
Bet365
12.00
10Bet
8.50
Away
Bet365
21.00
10Bet
17.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Pogon Szczecin
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.60
0.88
0.50
0.43
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.61
0.64
0.79
0.57
0.43
0.71
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
1.50
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Wisla Plock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Wisla Plock
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.50
0.46
0.31
0.59
0.65
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.75
0.75
vs Similar (23)
0.43
0.52
0.45
0.36
0.42
0.67
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogon Szczecin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
71.9%
@ 1.33+2.1%
Under 0.5
28.1%
@ 3.08-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.39
BetVictor
1.35
Marathonbet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Under
Betfair
3.30
Bet365
3.25
Pinnacle
3.20
10Bet
3.10
William Hil
3.10
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
38.5%
@ 2.56+2.4%
Under 1.5
61.5%
@ 1.45-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.65
Pinnacle
2.65
Bet365
2.62
Betfair
2.60
Marathonbet
2.59
Under
10Bet
1.48
Betano
1.47
BetVictor
1.46
Unibet
1.45
Pinnacle
1.45
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.4%
@ 6.16+1.4%
Under 2.5
83.6%
@ 1.09-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.40
1xBet
6.40
William Hil
6.00
Under
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.11
William Hil
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Betfair
1.08
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Pogon Szczecin over/under 0.5 HT
Over
61.4%
@ 1.75+8.4%
Under
38.6%
@ 1.98-8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.82
Marathonbet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.77
1xBet
1.73
10Bet
1.73
Under
Unibet
2.02
1xBet
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Pinnacle
2.00
Marathonbet
1.92
Pogon Szczecin over/under 1.5 HT
Over
21.8%
@ 4.90+2.9%
Under
78.2%
@ 1.15-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.30
1xBet
5.00
Betano
4.80
10Bet
4.50
Under
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.16
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
Pogon Szczecin over/under 2.5 HT
Over
5.7%
@ 10.50-3.2%
Under
94.3%
@ 1.03+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Wisla Plock over/under 0.5 HT
Over
34.6%
@ 2.33-5.2%
Under
65.4%
@ 1.54+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.42
Unibet
2.38
Betano
2.35
Marathonbet
2.31
10Bet
2.25
Under
1xBet
1.57
10Bet
1.57
Betano
1.55
Pinnacle
1.53
Marathonbet
1.53
Wisla Plock over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.0%
@ 8.37-4.2%
Under
93.0%
@ 1.05+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.30
1xBet
8.50
Betano
7.30
Under
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.03
Wisla Plock over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.8%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Pogon Szczecin
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.57
0.69
0.62
0.50
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.64
0.50
0.79
0.50
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.50
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Wisla Plock) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Wisla Plock
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.93
0.15
0.85
0.59
1.00
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
0.67
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.75
vs Similar (23)
0.26
0.96
0.09
0.91
0.42
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogon Szczecin) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
84.4%
@ 1.19+6.5%
Under 0.5
15.6%
@ 4.19-6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
Under
Bet365
4.33
10Bet
4.33
Betano
4.20
Marathonbet
4.20
1xBet
4.20
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
52.9%
@ 1.96+5.4%
Under 1.5
47.1%
@ 1.77-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Marathonbet
1.98
1xBet
1.98
Betano
1.95
Under
10Bet
1.85
Betano
1.83
1xBet
1.76
Marathonbet
1.76
Bet365
1.73
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
22.4%
@ 4.07-0.4%
Under 2.5
77.6%
@ 1.20+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.33
William Hil
4.33
1xBet
4.10
Marathonbet
4.10
Betano
3.85
Under
Betano
1.25
10Bet
1.22
William Hil
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Marathonbet
1.17
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Pogon Szczecin over/under 0.5 2H
Over
72.5%
@ 1.53+11.7%
Under
27.5%
@ 2.38-11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.53
1xBet
1.53
Under
Betano
2.40
1xBet
2.35
Pogon Szczecin over/under 1.5 2H
Over
35.0%
@ 3.48+8.4%
Under
65.0%
@ 1.26-8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.64
1xBet
3.50
10Bet
3.40
Betano
3.40
Under
Betano
1.29
10Bet
1.28
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Pogon Szczecin over/under 2.5 2H
Over
8.5%
@ 8.85-2.0%
Under
91.5%
@ 1.03+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.80
Betano
7.90
Under
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.01
Wisla Plock over/under 0.5 2H
Over
40.9%
@ 1.93-7.2%
Under
59.1%
@ 1.78+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.94
Marathonbet
1.94
Betano
1.91
Under
Betano
1.83
1xBet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.75
Wisla Plock over/under 1.5 2H
Over
10.1%
@ 5.65-6.3%
Under
89.9%
@ 1.11+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.35
1xBet
5.80
10Bet
5.25
Betano
5.20
Under
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.12
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
Wisla Plock over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.5%
@ 11.25-6.8%
Under
98.5%
@ 1.02+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.5%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.8%
Away under 3.5 goals
97.6%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+3.2%
Under 6.5
96.6%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+1.6%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
94.3%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+3.2%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.0%
1.05
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.03
-
-
+4.2%
Home +2 handicap
92.4%
1.06
10Bet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
+6.1%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
91.5%
1.03
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.0%
Under 5.5
91.5%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.04
BetVictor
1.02
1xBet
1.01
-
+0.4%
Away under 2.5 goals
90.5%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.08
BetVictor
1.07
Betfair
1.06
+3.3%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
89.9%
1.11
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.12
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
-
+6.3%
Home under 3.5 goals
86.8%
1.06
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
-
-
-2.1%
Home over 0.5 goals
85.6%
1.16
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.15
BetVictor
1.15
1xBet
1.14
+5.5%
Over 0.5 2H goals
84.4%
1.19
Betano
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
+6.5%
Under 2.5 HT goals
83.6%
1.09
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.11
William Hil
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Betfair
1.08
-1.4%
Under 5.5 cards
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
82.4%
1.22
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
10Bet
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
+6.7%
Under 4.5
81.3%
1.12
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Pinnacle
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.11
-1.5%
Home or Draw
80.3%
1.24
Betano
1.30
BetVictor
1.25
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
+5.3%
Home +1 handicap
80.3%
1.24
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Unibet
1.20
-
+7.8%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
78.2%
1.15
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.16
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
-
-2.9%
Under 2.5 2H goals
77.6%
1.20
Betano
1.25
10Bet
1.22
William Hil
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Marathonbet
1.17
+0.4%
Home or Away
76.0%
1.25
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.28
Betfair
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
+1.6%
Over 19.5 fouls
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 2H goals
72.5%
1.53
Betano
1.53
1xBet
1.53
-
-
-
+11.7%
Over 0.5 HT goals
71.9%
1.33
Betano
1.39
BetVictor
1.35
Marathonbet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
+2.1%
Under 25.5 fouls
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
71.6%
1.40
Pinnacle
1.50
Unibet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.36
Betano
1.36
-
+5.5%
Over 2.5 cards
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
70.8%
1.36
10Bet
1.40
Betano
1.40
Pinnacle
1.37
1xBet
1.36
Betfair
1.36
+2.7%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Pogon Szczecin
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Linus Wahlqvist25%
Attila Szalai25%
Darko Churlinov25%
Kellyn Acosta20%
Musa Juwara20%
Paul Mukairu20%
Léo Borges20%
Benjamin Mendy0%
Kamil Grosicki0%
Patryk Dziczek0%
Valentin Cojocaru0%
Fredrik Ulvestad0%
Hussein Ali0%
Dimitrios Keramitsis0%
Maciej Wojciechowski0%
Filip Čuić0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Dimitrios Keramitsis40%
Benjamin Mendy33%
Kamil Grosicki33%
Linus Wahlqvist25%
Patryk Dziczek20%
Valentin Cojocaru20%
Kellyn Acosta20%
Léo Borges20%
Attila Szalai0%
Fredrik Ulvestad0%
Musa Juwara0%
Darko Churlinov0%
Paul Mukairu0%
Hussein Ali0%
Maciej Wojciechowski0%
Filip Čuić0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Benjamin Mendy33%
Kamil Grosicki33%
Linus Wahlqvist25%
Maciej Wojciechowski25%
Paul Mukairu20%
Attila Szalai0%
Patryk Dziczek0%
Valentin Cojocaru0%
Fredrik Ulvestad0%
Kellyn Acosta0%
Musa Juwara0%
Darko Churlinov0%
Hussein Ali0%
Léo Borges0%
Dimitrios Keramitsis0%
Filip Čuić0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Paul Mukairu20%
Dimitrios Keramitsis20%
Benjamin Mendy0%
Kamil Grosicki0%
Linus Wahlqvist0%
Attila Szalai0%
Patryk Dziczek0%
Valentin Cojocaru0%
Fredrik Ulvestad0%
Kellyn Acosta0%
Musa Juwara0%
Darko Churlinov0%
Hussein Ali0%
Léo Borges0%
Maciej Wojciechowski0%
Filip Čuić0%
Wisla Plock
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Marcin Flis33%
Žan Rogelj20%
Said Hamulić20%
Marcin Kamiński0%
Jurica Pršir0%
Patryk Kun0%
Łukasz Sekulski0%
Rafał Leszczyński0%
Fabian Hiszpański0%
Dani Pacheco0%
Adam Radwański0%
Marcus Haglind Sangre0%
Jime0%
Olaf Kobacki0%
Krystian Pomorski0%
Dion Gallapeni0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jurica Pršir67%
Dion Gallapeni50%
Marcin Flis33%
Dani Pacheco33%
Olaf Kobacki25%
Marcus Haglind Sangre20%
Marcin Kamiński0%
Patryk Kun0%
Łukasz Sekulski0%
Rafał Leszczyński0%
Fabian Hiszpański0%
Adam Radwański0%
Žan Rogelj0%
Jime0%
Krystian Pomorski0%
Said Hamulić0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dani Pacheco33%
Marcin Kamiński0%
Jurica Pršir0%
Patryk Kun0%
Łukasz Sekulski0%
Marcin Flis0%
Rafał Leszczyński0%
Fabian Hiszpański0%
Adam Radwański0%
Žan Rogelj0%
Marcus Haglind Sangre0%
Jime0%
Olaf Kobacki0%
Krystian Pomorski0%
Said Hamulić0%
Dion Gallapeni0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Said Hamulić60%
Marcin Flis33%
Marcin Kamiński0%
Jurica Pršir0%
Patryk Kun0%
Łukasz Sekulski0%
Rafał Leszczyński0%
Fabian Hiszpański0%
Dani Pacheco0%
Adam Radwański0%
Žan Rogelj0%
Marcus Haglind Sangre0%
Jime0%
Olaf Kobacki0%
Krystian Pomorski0%
Dion Gallapeni0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LP (25)
€58m
WŁ (29)
€43m
RC (27)
€33m
JAG (26)
€30m
GZ (27)
€29m
CK (26)
€21m
LW (25)
€20m
PS (27)
€20m
ZL (28)
€19m
ML (20)
€19m
KK (23)
€16m
WK (24)
€13m
GK (26)
€13m
WP (25)
€12m
WK (22)
€12m
RR (25)
€11m
PG (22)
€9m
SW (22)
€7m
Pogon Szczecin's squad is €7m more valuable than Wisla Plock's (€20m vs €12m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WŁ (13)
€21m
LP (10)
€21m
GZ (13)
€17m
JAG (11)
€12m
CK (12)
€11m
ZL (11)
€10m
LW (12)
€10m
ML (10)
€10m
RC (9)
€9m
PS (13)
€8m
WK (8)
€6m
WK (8)
€5m
RR (9)
€4m
PG (11)
€4m
WP (7)
€4m
KK (7)
€3m
GK (7)
€3m
SW (5)
€2m
Pogon Szczecin's attack is €5m more valuable than Wisla Plock's (€8m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RC (12)
€14m
LP (3)
€9m
KK (8)
€7m
WŁ (5)
€7m
GZ (4)
€6m
GK (10)
€6m
LW (7)
€4m
ZL (4)
€4m
JAG (5)
€3m
SW (9)
€3m
PS (5)
€3m
WP (9)
€3m
ML (2)
€2m
CK (4)
€2m
WK (4)
€2m
WK (3)
€1m
RR (4)
€1m
PG (1)
€0m
Pogon Szczecin and Wisla Plock have a similar midfield value (both €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LP (12)
€28m
JAG (10)
€15m
WŁ (11)
€15m
RC (6)
€9m
PS (9)
€9m
CK (10)
€8m
ML (8)
€6m
GZ (10)
€6m
WP (9)
€6m
LW (6)
€6m
RR (12)
€6m
KK (8)
€5m
WK (12)
€5m
ZL (13)
€5m
WK (11)
€5m
GK (9)
€4m
PG (10)
€4m
SW (8)
€2m
Pogon Szczecin's defence is €3m more valuable than Wisla Plock's (€9m vs €6m).
Poland: Ekstraklasa 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: Ekstraklasa stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Lech Poznan
Legia Warszawa
Gornik Zabrze
Wisla Krakow
GKS Katowice
Jagiellonia
Korona Kielce
Zaglebie Lubin
Cracovia Krakow
Piast Gliwice
Radomiak Radom
Widzew Łódź
Slask Wroclaw
Motor Lublin
Wieczysta Kraków
Raków Częstochowa