Polessya’s recent 2-0 win over Shakhtar Donetsk fuels the model’s confidence that a home victory is the most likely outcome, reflected in a 67% home-win probability. Their strong home form - scoring an average of 1.89 goals and conceding only 0.44 against weaker opponents - matches the 96.6% probability of a “Home +2 handicap” pick. Kudrivka, struggling away with an average of 0.83 goals scored and 2.83 conceded to stronger teams, faces a 22% draw chance and an 11% away-win probability, making the 2-0 scoreline the single most likely result at 13.1%. The match is expected to see 2.7 goals on average, with the most probable total of 2 goals at 25%. Suggested picks include a 99.5% chance of “Away under 2.5 HT goals,” a 99.4% chance of “Away under 3.5 goals,” a 99.3% chance of “Under 7.5,” a 98.9% chance of “Away under 2.5 2H goals,” a 97.8% chance of “Under 6.5,” a 96.3% chance of “Away under 2.5 goals,” and a 95.5% chance of “Away under 1.5 HT goals.” These selections underline the expectation that Polessya will dominate while Kudrivka’s scoring will remain limited.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Polessya win
67.6%
Avg Implied 75.7% · @ 1.21
Edge
-8.1%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.24
Dafabet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Draw
21.4%
Avg Implied 16.6% · @ 5.51
Edge
+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
6.04
Pinnacle
6.00
Dafabet
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Marathonbet
5.65
Kudrivka win
11.0%
Avg Implied 7.7% · @ 11.94
Edge
+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
14.00
10Bet
14.00
Marathonbet
13.25
1xBet
13.00
William Hil
12.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Polessya
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
0.60
1.73
0.67
2.00
0.53
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.33
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (8)
1.62
0.88
1.80
1.20
1.33
0.33
vs Weaker (19)
2.16
0.53
1.89
0.44
2.40
0.60
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Kudrivka) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kudrivka
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.60
0.87
1.33
0.87
1.87
vs Stronger (12)
0.92
2.33
1.00
1.83
0.83
2.83
vs Similar (18)
0.83
1.11
0.78
1.00
0.89
1.22
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Polessya) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
77.1%
@ 1.20+0.2%
Under 1.5
22.9%
@ 4.01-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.19
Under
Betfair
4.50
Superbet
4.15
1xBet
4.02
Bet365
4.00
10Bet
3.95
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
52.1%
@ 1.68-3.6%
Under 2.5
47.9%
@ 2.10+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.71
SBO
1.70
Bet365
1.70
10Bet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.69
Under
Superbet
2.15
1xBet
2.13
Pinnacle
2.12
SBO
2.11
Marathonbet
2.11
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
29.9%
@ 2.65-5.0%
Under 3.5
70.1%
@ 1.42+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.75
10Bet
2.75
Pinnacle
2.73
1xBet
2.70
Bet365
2.62
Under
Superbet
1.45
Bet365
1.44
1xBet
1.43
Betano
1.42
10Bet
1.42
Both teams to score
Yes
45.3%
@ 2.39+6.8%
No
54.7%
@ 1.50-6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
2.55
Bet365
2.50
1xBet
2.43
Marathonbet
2.38
Betano
2.37
No
Superbet
1.56
William Hil
1.55
1xBet
1.51
Marathonbet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
13.3%@ 5.08+5.6%
1-0
12.1%@ 5.91+5.5%
1-1
10.2%@ 10.16+6.3%
2-1
9.5%@ 8.72+5.0%
3-0
9.1%@ 6.40+3.0%
0-0
7.3%@ 12.59+4.2%
3-1
6.4%@ 11.37+3.0%
4-0
4.6%@ 10.09+0.8%
Polessya goals ↓
Kudrivka goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.3%
3.6%
1.6%
0.4%
0.1%
1
12%
10%
3.3%
0.8%
0.1%
2
13%
9.5%
3.4%
0.8%
0.1%
3
9.1%
6.4%
2.3%
0.5%
0.1%
4
4.6%
3.3%
1.2%
0.3%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Polessya goals (down), columns = Kudrivka goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shakhtar Donetsk
2.40
Livyi Bereh
2.00
LNZ Cherkasy
2.00
Polessya
1.97
Dynamo Kyiv
1.90
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
1.70
Kolos Kovalivka
1.63
Kryvbas KR
1.60
Zorya Luhansk
1.53
Karpaty
1.37
Chornomorets
1.36
Bukovyna
1.29
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.07
Veres Rivne
1.03
Obolon'-Brovar
0.97
Kudrivka
0.94
Polessya is 1.03 points better than Kudrivka in terms of average points per game (1.97 vs 0.94).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Shakhtar Donetsk
2.37
Dynamo Kyiv
2.20
Kryvbas KR
1.77
Polessya
1.70
Zorya Luhansk
1.40
Karpaty
1.33
LNZ Cherkasy
1.30
Chornomorets
1.23
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
1.20
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.20
Bukovyna
1.17
Kudrivka
1.06
Kolos Kovalivka
1.00
Livyi Bereh
1.00
Veres Rivne
0.87
Obolon'-Brovar
0.86
Polessya is 0.64 goals better than Kudrivka in terms of goals scored per game (1.70 vs 1.06).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Livyi Bereh
0.50
LNZ Cherkasy
0.57
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
0.63
Shakhtar Donetsk
0.70
Polessya
0.70
Kolos Kovalivka
0.83
Karpaty
1.03
Zorya Luhansk
1.20
Dynamo Kyiv
1.20
Chornomorets
1.24
Bukovyna
1.30
Veres Rivne
1.33
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.50
Kryvbas KR
1.53
Kudrivka
1.56
Obolon'-Brovar
1.69
Polessya is 0.86 goals better than Kudrivka in terms of goals conceded per game (0.70 vs 1.56).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Shakhtar Donetsk
68%
Dynamo Kyiv
62%
Livyi Bereh
58%
Polessya
57%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
56%
Zorya Luhansk
52%
Kolos Kovalivka
49%
Kudrivka
49%
Karpaty
49%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
48%
Kryvbas KR
48%
LNZ Cherkasy
44%
Veres Rivne
43%
Obolon'-Brovar
42%
Polessya is 7.5 percentage points better than Kudrivka in terms of average possession (57% vs 49%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Polessya
For 6.1 · Against 2.5 · Total 8.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 1.1 · Total 2.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.7 · Against 8.1 · Total 17.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Kudrivka
For 4.0 · Against 5.7 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 12.9 · Total 23.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Polessya
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
8.9
9.6
2.2
2.1
2.4
19.8
18.4
21.1
vs Stronger (3)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
8.2
8.1
8.2
2.9
2.8
3.0
18.6
17.7
19.7
vs Weaker (29)
10.1
9.6
10.5
2.1
1.7
2.4
20.8
19.0
22.0
% over line
30%
21%
38%
24%
21%
27%
30%
21%
38%
% under line
70%
79%
62%
76%
79%
73%
70%
79%
62%
This opponent (Kudrivka) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kudrivka
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.2
9.6
1.5
1.8
1.2
25.1
24.3
26.4
vs Stronger (15)
7.9
8.2
7.3
1.4
1.6
1.2
24.0
22.8
26.0
vs Similar (35)
10.4
10.0
11.0
1.6
1.9
1.2
25.9
25.4
26.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
40%
42%
38%
20%
25%
15%
80%
67%
100%
% under line
60%
58%
62%
80%
75%
85%
20%
33%
0%
This opponent (Polessya) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Zorya Luhansk
10.5
Kryvbas KR
10.0
Dynamo Kyiv
9.9
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
9.8
Veres Rivne
9.8
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
9.7
Polessya
9.5
Kudrivka
9.4
Livyi Bereh
9.2
Obolon'-Brovar
9.1
LNZ Cherkasy
9.1
Shakhtar Donetsk
8.9
Chornomorets
8.8
Kolos Kovalivka
8.6
Karpaty
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Karpaty
4.9
Obolon'-Brovar
4.6
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
4.6
LNZ Cherkasy
4.5
Veres Rivne
4.4
Chornomorets
4.4
Livyi Bereh
4.4
Polessya
4.2
Zorya Luhansk
4.1
Dynamo Kyiv
4.0
Kolos Kovalivka
3.9
Kudrivka
3.8
Shakhtar Donetsk
3.8
Kryvbas KR
3.6
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Obolon'-Brovar
26.9
Livyi Bereh
26.2
Kudrivka
25.1
Kryvbas KR
24.6
Karpaty
24.2
Kolos Kovalivka
24.0
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
23.7
LNZ Cherkasy
23.0
Veres Rivne
22.8
Chornomorets
22.4
Zorya Luhansk
22.0
Dynamo Kyiv
21.3
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
21.2
Polessya
20.6
Shakhtar Donetsk
19.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
49.2%
@ 1.85-1.2%
Under 9.5
50.8%
@ 1.88+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.87
10Bet
1.85
Pinnacle
1.85
Marathonbet
1.83
Under
1xBet
1.94
Bet365
1.90
Pinnacle
1.87
Betano
1.87
Marathonbet
1.85
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
46.9%
Under 3.5
53.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
56.4%
Under 21.5
43.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Polessya or Draw
89.0%
Avg Implied 91.6% · @ 1.02
Edge
-2.6%
68%
21%
11%
covers Polessya + Draw
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.04
Betano
1.04
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Polessya or Kudrivka
78.6%
Avg Implied 84.1% · @ 1.11
Edge
-5.5%
68%
21%
11%
covers Polessya + Kudrivka
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.14
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Betano
1.11
Draw or Kudrivka
32.4%
Avg Implied 24.3% · @ 3.85
Edge
+8.0%
68%
21%
11%
covers Draw + Kudrivka
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
4.50
1xBet
4.17
Marathonbet
3.98
William Hil
3.90
Bet365
3.75
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Polessya over/under 0.5
Over
87.1%
@ 1.06-1.4%
Under
12.9%
@ 8.17+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.07
1xBet
1.07
Betfair
1.04
Under
Betfair
9.50
Bet365
7.50
1xBet
7.50
Polessya over/under 1.5
Over
60.6%
@ 1.36-7.1%
Under
39.4%
@ 2.87+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.40
1xBet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Superbet
1.35
Under
Betfair
3.00
Superbet
2.95
1xBet
2.87
Marathonbet
2.83
10Bet
2.80
Polessya over/under 2.5
Over
33.6%
@ 2.15-9.7%
Under
66.4%
@ 1.64+9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.20
Betfair
2.20
Pinnacle
2.19
Marathonbet
2.17
1xBet
2.17
Under
Superbet
1.67
Betano
1.67
Pinnacle
1.64
1xBet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.64
Polessya over/under 3.5
Over
15.1%
@ 3.82-9.1%
Under
84.9%
@ 1.22+9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.84
1xBet
3.82
Betfair
3.75
Superbet
3.70
Under
Superbet
1.23
1xBet
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
Kudrivka over/under 0.5
Over
50.9%
@ 2.23+9.4%
Under
49.1%
@ 1.58-9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.38
Betano
2.30
Pinnacle
2.25
1xBet
2.22
10Bet
2.20
Under
Superbet
1.65
Bet365
1.62
Pinnacle
1.61
Marathonbet
1.58
1xBet
1.57
Kudrivka over/under 1.5
Over
16.0%
@ 7.22+3.1%
Under
84.0%
@ 1.07-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
8.50
Marathonbet
8.10
1xBet
7.10
Bet365
7.00
Superbet
6.60
Under
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
Kudrivka over/under 2.5
Over
3.6%
@ 19.00-1.5%
Under
96.4%
@ 1.01+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
23.00
Bet365
15.00
Under
Bet365
1.01
Kudrivka over/under 3.5
Over
0.6%
Under
99.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Polessya, so a minus line means Polessya give that many goals of a start and Kudrivka receive them. At -1, Polessya must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Polessya win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Polessya)
Polessya -2
22.5%
@ 2.72-10.4%
Draw -2
21.0%
@ 3.77-2.7%
Kudrivka +2
56.4%
@ 2.06+13.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
2.75
Bet365
2.75
Betfair
2.70
Marathonbet
2.68
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.84
10Bet
3.65
Betfair
3.60
Away
Betfair
2.10
Bet365
2.10
10Bet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.00
Handicap -1 (Polessya)
Polessya -1
43.6%
@ 1.65-10.9%
Draw -1
24.1%
@ 3.75+0.1%
Kudrivka +1
32.4%
@ 4.16+10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.67
Marathonbet
1.66
Betfair
1.62
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.74
Away
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.98
Handicap +1 (Polessya)
Polessya +1
89.0%
@ 1.04-1.9%
Draw +1
7.8%
@ 15.00+1.5%
Kudrivka -1
3.2%
@ 34.00+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.04
Draw
Bet365
15.00
Away
Bet365
34.00
Handicap +2 (Polessya)
Polessya +2
96.8%
Draw +2
2.5%
Kudrivka -2
0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Polessya
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.13
0.87
0.13
1.13
0.13
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
vs Similar (8)
1.00
0.12
1.20
0.20
0.67
0.00
vs Weaker (19)
1.11
0.16
0.78
0.11
1.40
0.20
Clean sheet %
87% (+54pp vs league)
This opponent (Kudrivka) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kudrivka
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.77
0.33
0.73
0.27
0.80
vs Stronger (12)
0.25
1.33
0.00
1.50
0.50
1.17
vs Similar (18)
0.33
0.39
0.56
0.22
0.11
0.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Polessya) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
72.2%
@ 1.29+0.1%
Under 0.5
27.8%
@ 3.34-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.32
Bet365
1.30
10Bet
1.30
1xBet
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Under
Betfair
3.60
Superbet
3.45
Bet365
3.40
1xBet
3.35
William Hil
3.30
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
36.8%
@ 2.40-1.8%
Under 1.5
63.2%
@ 1.51+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.50
Marathonbet
2.50
10Bet
2.40
Betfair
2.40
Pinnacle
2.39
Under
Superbet
1.56
1xBet
1.54
Pinnacle
1.53
William Hil
1.53
Betfair
1.50
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
15.0%
@ 5.58-1.7%
Under 2.5
85.0%
@ 1.11+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.50
Marathonbet
5.70
William Hil
5.50
Bet365
5.50
1xBet
5.29
Under
Superbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Marathonbet
1.08
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Polessya over/under 0.5 HT
Over
60.5%
@ 1.42-5.1%
Under
39.5%
@ 2.70+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
Pinnacle
1.40
1xBet
1.40
Under
Pinnacle
2.80
1xBet
2.75
Betano
2.55
Polessya over/under 1.5 HT
Over
25.1%
@ 3.07-5.0%
Under
74.9%
@ 1.33+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.20
Marathonbet
3.20
Superbet
2.82
Under
Superbet
1.38
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
Polessya over/under 2.5 HT
Over
6.9%
@ 8.00-4.7%
Under
93.1%
@ 1.05+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.00
Under
1xBet
1.05
Kudrivka over/under 0.5 HT
Over
25.7%
@ 4.04+2.9%
Under
74.3%
@ 1.19-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.20
Betano
4.05
1xBet
4.00
Superbet
3.90
Under
Superbet
1.21
Betano
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
1xBet
1.17
Kudrivka over/under 1.5 HT
Over
4.4%
Under
95.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kudrivka over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.5%
Under
99.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Polessya
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.47
0.87
0.53
0.87
0.40
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (8)
0.62
0.75
0.60
1.00
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (19)
1.05
0.37
1.11
0.33
1.00
0.40
Clean sheet %
67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Kudrivka) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kudrivka
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.83
0.53
0.60
0.60
1.07
vs Stronger (12)
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.33
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (18)
0.50
0.72
0.22
0.78
0.78
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Polessya) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
81.0%
@ 1.19+3.0%
Under 0.5
19.0%
@ 4.22-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
Under
Superbet
4.40
Marathonbet
4.33
Bet365
4.33
1xBet
4.12
William Hil
3.90
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
47.5%
@ 1.90-1.2%
Under 1.5
52.5%
@ 1.81+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.00
1xBet
1.98
Bet365
1.91
Marathonbet
1.89
Superbet
1.87
Under
Betano
1.85
Superbet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.84
10Bet
1.83
Bet365
1.80
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
22.0%
@ 3.91-1.8%
Under 2.5
78.0%
@ 1.22+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.20
1xBet
4.02
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.68
Superbet
3.65
Under
Superbet
1.24
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
William Hil
1.20
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Polessya over/under 0.5 2H
Over
70.8%
@ 1.29-1.1%
Under
29.2%
@ 3.30+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.29
Under
1xBet
3.30
Polessya over/under 1.5 2H
Over
35.5%
@ 2.34-4.2%
Under
64.5%
@ 1.53+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.35
1xBet
2.34
Marathonbet
2.32
Under
Marathonbet
1.54
Superbet
1.53
1xBet
1.53
Polessya over/under 2.5 2H
Over
11.9%
@ 5.40-5.1%
Under
88.1%
@ 1.11+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.40
Under
1xBet
1.11
Kudrivka over/under 0.5 2H
Over
32.4%
@ 3.26+4.0%
Under
67.6%
@ 1.29-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.34
1xBet
3.30
Superbet
3.15
Under
Superbet
1.31
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.27
Kudrivka over/under 1.5 2H
Over
5.9%
Under
94.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kudrivka over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.7%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+5.5%
Home +2 handicap
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
96.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.5%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
93.8%
1.03
1xBet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
-
+4.5%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
93.1%
1.05
1xBet
1.05
-
-
-
-
+4.7%
Home or Draw
89.0%
1.02
William Hil
1.04
Betano
1.04
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-2.6%
Home +1 handicap
89.0%
1.04
Bet365
1.04
-
-
-
-
-1.9%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
88.1%
1.11
1xBet
1.11
-
-
-
-
+5.1%
Home over 0.5 goals
87.1%
1.06
Bet365
1.07
1xBet
1.07
Betfair
1.04
-
-
-1.4%
Under 5.5 cards
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
85.4%
1.15
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
1xBet
1.16
Betfair
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
+4.9%
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.0%
1.11
Superbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Bet365
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Marathonbet
1.08
+1.7%
Home under 3.5 goals
84.9%
1.22
Superbet
1.23
1xBet
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
+9.1%
Away under 1.5 goals
84.0%
1.07
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
-3.1%
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.0%
1.19
William Hil
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
+3.0%
Home or Away
78.6%
1.11
William Hil
1.14
1xBet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Betano
1.11
-5.5%
Under 2.5 2H goals
78.0%
1.22
Superbet
1.24
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
William Hil
1.20
+1.8%
Over 1.5
77.1%
1.20
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.19
+0.2%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
74.9%
1.33
Superbet
1.38
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
-
-
+5.0%
Under 25.5 fouls
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 0.5 HT goals
74.3%
1.19
Superbet
1.21
Betano
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
1xBet
1.17
-
-2.9%
Under 11.5 corners
74.0%
1.28
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.27
-
-
-
+3.5%
Over 19.5 fouls
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.2%
1.29
Marathonbet
1.32
Bet365
1.30
10Bet
1.30
1xBet
1.30
William Hil
1.30
+0.1%
Under 4.5 cards
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 2H goals
70.8%
1.29
1xBet
1.29
-
-
-
-
-1.1%
Under 3.5
70.1%
1.42
Superbet
1.45
Bet365
1.44
1xBet
1.43
Betano
1.42
10Bet
1.42
+5.0%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Polessya · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Oleksandr Nazarenko30%
Oleksiy Gutsulyak29%
Oleksandr Andriyevskyi25%
Danylo Beskorovaynyi25%
Igor Krasnopir25%
Mykola Haiduchyk23%
Eduard Sarapiyy18%
Vladyslav Veleten17%
Giorgi Maisuradze17%
Maksym Bragaru12%
Lindon Emërllahu12%
Bohdan Liedniev10%
Talles Costa10%
Oleh Kudryk0%
Mykyta Kravchenko0%
Volodymyr Shepeliev0%
Andi Hadroj0%
Serhii Chobotenko0%
Bogdan Mykhaylichenko0%
Oleksandr Filippov0%
Ruslan Babenko0%
Yevgen Volynets0%
Tomer Yosefi0%
Ilir Krasniqi0%
Borys Krushynskyi0%
João Vialle0%
André Gonçalves0%
Oleg Fedor0%
Maksym Melnychenko0%
Yaroslav Karaman0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Vladyslav Veleten33%
Yaroslav Karaman33%
Borys Krushynskyi31%
Danylo Beskorovaynyi25%
Talles Costa20%
Yevgen Volynets19%
Serhii Chobotenko17%
Oleg Fedor17%
Bogdan Mykhaylichenko15%
Eduard Sarapiyy14%
Maksym Bragaru12%
Ilir Krasniqi12%
Mykyta Kravchenko11%
Bohdan Liedniev10%
Oleksandr Nazarenko5%
Ruslan Babenko5%
Oleh Kudryk0%
Oleksandr Andriyevskyi0%
Volodymyr Shepeliev0%
Andi Hadroj0%
Oleksandr Filippov0%
Oleksiy Gutsulyak0%
Tomer Yosefi0%
Giorgi Maisuradze0%
Mykola Haiduchyk0%
João Vialle0%
Lindon Emërllahu0%
André Gonçalves0%
Igor Krasnopir0%
Maksym Melnychenko0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Vladyslav Veleten33%
Igor Krasnopir25%
Oleg Fedor17%
Borys Krushynskyi15%
Maksym Bragaru12%
Lindon Emërllahu12%
Bohdan Liedniev10%
Oleksiy Gutsulyak10%
Serhii Chobotenko6%
Oleksandr Andriyevskyi5%
Bogdan Mykhaylichenko5%
Oleksandr Nazarenko5%
Oleh Kudryk0%
Mykyta Kravchenko0%
Volodymyr Shepeliev0%
Andi Hadroj0%
Danylo Beskorovaynyi0%
Oleksandr Filippov0%
Ruslan Babenko0%
Yevgen Volynets0%
Tomer Yosefi0%
Eduard Sarapiyy0%
Talles Costa0%
Ilir Krasniqi0%
Giorgi Maisuradze0%
Mykola Haiduchyk0%
João Vialle0%
André Gonçalves0%
Maksym Melnychenko0%
Yaroslav Karaman0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Oleksiy Gutsulyak29%
Eduard Sarapiyy23%
Tomer Yosefi17%
Mykola Haiduchyk14%
Maksym Bragaru12%
Oleksandr Andriyevskyi10%
Bohdan Liedniev10%
Borys Krushynskyi8%
Oleksandr Filippov6%
Oleksandr Nazarenko5%
Ruslan Babenko5%
Oleh Kudryk0%
Mykyta Kravchenko0%
Volodymyr Shepeliev0%
Andi Hadroj0%
Danylo Beskorovaynyi0%
Serhii Chobotenko0%
Bogdan Mykhaylichenko0%
Yevgen Volynets0%
Vladyslav Veleten0%
Talles Costa0%
Ilir Krasniqi0%
Giorgi Maisuradze0%
João Vialle0%
Lindon Emërllahu0%
André Gonçalves0%
Igor Krasnopir0%
Oleg Fedor0%
Maksym Melnychenko0%
Yaroslav Karaman0%
Kudrivka · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Andrii Storchous33%
Andriy Storchous33%
Yevhenii Morozko14%
Oleksandr Kozak11%
Raymond Owusu7%
Denys Svityukha6%
Denys Nagnoynyi6%
Artem Liehostaiev6%
Artur Dumanyuk5%
Andrii Totovytskyi0%
Dmytro Korkishko0%
Vladyslav Shapoval0%
Oleksandr Belyaev0%
Valerii Rohozynskyi0%
Anton Yashkov0%
Maksym Melnychuk0%
Oleksiy Lytovchenko0%
Kaya Makosso0%
Taipi Alban0%
Bogdan Veklyak0%
Artem Machelyuk0%
Ivan Mamrosenko0%
Ivan Losenko0%
Oleh Pushkarov0%
Anton Glushchenko0%
Marian Faryna0%
Oleksiy Gusev0%
Miroslav Serdyuk0%
Jair Collahuazo0%
Kyrylo Matveev0%
Ivan Mamrosenko0%
Miroslav Serdyuk0%
Yuriy Potimkov0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Andrii Totovytskyi33%
Vladyslav Shapoval33%
Ivan Mamrosenko33%
Ivan Losenko29%
Raymond Owusu27%
Artur Dumanyuk26%
Valerii Rohozynskyi20%
Oleksandr Kozak17%
Yevhenii Morozko14%
Marian Faryna14%
Jair Collahuazo14%
Anton Yashkov13%
Denys Svityukha12%
Miroslav Serdyuk10%
Maksym Melnychuk8%
Bogdan Veklyak8%
Andriy Storchous7%
Artem Liehostaiev6%
Dmytro Korkishko0%
Oleksandr Belyaev0%
Andrii Storchous0%
Oleksiy Lytovchenko0%
Kaya Makosso0%
Taipi Alban0%
Artem Machelyuk0%
Ivan Mamrosenko0%
Denys Nagnoynyi0%
Oleh Pushkarov0%
Anton Glushchenko0%
Oleksiy Gusev0%
Miroslav Serdyuk0%
Kyrylo Matveev0%
Yuriy Potimkov0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Yevhenii Morozko14%
Kaya Makosso14%
Maksym Melnychuk8%
Anton Yashkov7%
Raymond Owusu7%
Oleksandr Kozak6%
Artur Dumanyuk5%
Artem Machelyuk5%
Andrii Totovytskyi0%
Dmytro Korkishko0%
Vladyslav Shapoval0%
Oleksandr Belyaev0%
Valerii Rohozynskyi0%
Andrii Storchous0%
Denys Svityukha0%
Oleksiy Lytovchenko0%
Taipi Alban0%
Bogdan Veklyak0%
Ivan Mamrosenko0%
Denys Nagnoynyi0%
Ivan Losenko0%
Oleh Pushkarov0%
Anton Glushchenko0%
Marian Faryna0%
Oleksiy Gusev0%
Miroslav Serdyuk0%
Jair Collahuazo0%
Artem Liehostaiev0%
Kyrylo Matveev0%
Andriy Storchous0%
Ivan Mamrosenko0%
Miroslav Serdyuk0%
Yuriy Potimkov0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Artur Dumanyuk16%
Oleksandr Kozak11%
Raymond Owusu7%
Andriy Storchous7%
Denys Svityukha6%
Denys Nagnoynyi6%
Andrii Totovytskyi0%
Dmytro Korkishko0%
Vladyslav Shapoval0%
Oleksandr Belyaev0%
Valerii Rohozynskyi0%
Yevhenii Morozko0%
Anton Yashkov0%
Andrii Storchous0%
Maksym Melnychuk0%
Oleksiy Lytovchenko0%
Kaya Makosso0%
Taipi Alban0%
Bogdan Veklyak0%
Artem Machelyuk0%
Ivan Mamrosenko0%
Ivan Losenko0%
Oleh Pushkarov0%
Anton Glushchenko0%
Marian Faryna0%
Oleksiy Gusev0%
Miroslav Serdyuk0%
Jair Collahuazo0%
Artem Liehostaiev0%
Kyrylo Matveev0%
Ivan Mamrosenko0%
Miroslav Serdyuk0%
Yuriy Potimkov0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SD (33)
€186m
DK (37)
€91m
POL (32)
€34m
M1K (26)
€28m
LC (25)
€20m
KAR (28)
€13m
KK (27)
€13m
ZL (27)
€11m
KK (19)
€11m
BUK (25)
€9m
VR (21)
€7m
OBO (28)
€7m
ED (23)
€6m
CHO (21)
€5m
KUD (24)
€5m
LB (25)
€5m
Polessya's squad is €28m more valuable than Kudrivka's (€34m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SD (16)
€115m
DK (13)
€32m
POL (9)
€12m
M1K (10)
€10m
LC (9)
€8m
KK (10)
€5m
KAR (8)
€4m
BUK (10)
€4m
ZL (11)
€3m
KK (7)
€3m
VR (9)
€3m
OBO (9)
€2m
CHO (7)
€2m
LB (7)
€2m
KUD (8)
€2m
ED (6)
€1m
Polessya's attack is €10m more valuable than Kudrivka's (€12m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DK (8)
€26m
SD (4)
€19m
POL (9)
€8m
M1K (6)
€7m
LC (5)
€5m
KK (4)
€3m
ZL (5)
€3m
KAR (5)
€2m
KK (5)
€2m
BUK (5)
€2m
ED (6)
€2m
CHO (7)
€2m
OBO (5)
€1m
KUD (6)
€1m
VR (4)
€1m
LB (6)
€1m
Polessya's midfield is €7m more valuable than Kudrivka's (€8m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SD (13)
€52m
DK (16)
€33m
POL (14)
€14m
M1K (10)
€11m
LC (11)
€7m
KAR (15)
€7m
KK (7)
€6m
ZL (11)
€6m
KK (13)
€5m
VR (8)
€4m
BUK (10)
€3m
ED (11)
€3m
OBO (14)
€3m
KUD (10)
€3m
LB (12)
€2m
CHO (7)
€2m
Polessya's defence is €11m more valuable than Kudrivka's (€14m vs €3m).
Ukraine: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ukraine: Premier League stats & trends →
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Karpaty
Shakhtar Donetsk
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Dynamo Kyiv
Zorya Luhansk
Bukovyna
Veres Rivne
Kryvbas KR
LNZ Cherkasy
Livyi Bereh
Chornomorets
Obolon'-Brovar
Kolos Kovalivka