Polessya are expected to secure a home win, backed by their recent 3-game winning run, as they host Zorya Luhansk. The expected total goals stands at 2.8, with a most likely total of 2 goals. A 1-1 scoreline is the most likely outcome, with a 11.7% probability. At home, Polessya have been scoring an average of 1.91 goals and conceding just 0.36. In contrast, Zorya Luhansk have struggled away from home, scoring 0.75 goals and conceding 1.75 versus stronger opponents.
The model's selection is a Home win, with a 57% probability. The model also suggests Over 1.5 goals, with a 78.6% probability, offering a significant edge. The probabilities for a Home win, Draw, and Away win stand at 57%, 25%, and 18% respectively.
Results analysis
The upset was immediate: Polessya, the pre-match favourite with a 57 % probability, fell to a 1-2 defeat, while Zorya Luhansk claimed the win. The model’s call was wrong. Polessya’s home form had just ended a defeat, but the match saw Zorya’s away form finish a win. The model’s selections performed largely as predicted: Away under 3.5 goals hit at 98.3 %, Home +2 handicap hit at 93.4 %, Away under 2.5 goals hit at 92.5 %, Home under 3.5 goals hit at 88.0 %, and Home over 0.5 goals hit at 84.5 %. However, Home or Draw missed at 81.8 %, and Home +1 handicap also missed at 81.8 %. The final score of 1-2 matched the actual result of an away win.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Polessya win✗ Miss
57.3%
Avg Implied 62.6% · @ 1.46
Edge
-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.52
10Bet
1.50
1xBet
1.50
Dafabet
1.49
William Hil
1.44
Draw✗ Miss
24.5%
Avg Implied 22.7% · @ 4.02
Edge
+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.29
Pinnacle
4.23
Dafabet
4.20
Betfair
4.20
Bet365
4.00
Zorya Luhansk win✓ Hit
18.2%
Avg Implied 14.6% · @ 6.24
Edge
+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
7.10
1xBet
6.75
888Sport
6.50
Betfair
6.50
William Hil
6.50
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Polessya
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
0.77
1.79
0.57
1.94
0.94
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (9)
1.67
1.33
2.00
1.00
1.40
1.60
vs Weaker (19)
2.16
0.53
1.89
0.44
2.40
0.60
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Zorya Luhansk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zorya Luhansk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.27
1.33
1.00
1.53
1.53
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.75
1.00
1.50
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (17)
1.29
1.41
1.22
1.33
1.38
1.50
vs Weaker (9)
2.00
0.78
1.75
0.00
2.20
1.40
Clean sheet %
30% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Polessya) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.6%
@ 1.27+5.6%
Under 1.5
21.4%
@ 3.42-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Betano
1.28
888Sport
1.25
Under
Betfair
3.60
1xBet
3.50
888Sport
3.50
Bet365
3.50
10Bet
3.45
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
53.9%
@ 1.88+3.8%
Under 2.5
46.1%
@ 1.89-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.90
10Bet
1.90
Bet365
1.90
1xBet
1.88
SBO
1.87
Under
Pinnacle
1.95
SBO
1.95
1xBet
1.92
Bet365
1.90
10Bet
1.85
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
31.6%
@ 3.19+2.5%
Under 3.5
68.4%
@ 1.31-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.30
10Bet
3.30
Bet365
3.25
888Sport
3.20
1xBet
3.12
Under
1xBet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.30
Betano
1.30
888Sport
1.30
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.6%
@ 1.98+7.2%
No
46.4%
@ 1.72-7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
2.10
1xBet
2.01
Betfair
2.00
William Hil
1.95
Betano
1.95
No
William Hil
1.75
888Sport
1.75
10Bet
1.73
Betfair
1.73
1xBet
1.73
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.7%@ 7.44+6.4%
2-0
10.2%@ 6.18+3.9%
2-1
9.9%@ 7.59+4.8%
1-0
9.9%@ 5.77+3.1%
0-0
6.9%@ 10.11+3.0%
3-0
6.4%@ 9.30+2.1%
3-1
6.2%@ 11.73+2.8%
1-2 ✓
5.2%@ 18.20+3.0%
Polessya goals ↓
Zorya Luhansk goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.9%
4.6%
2.8%
0.9%
0.2%
1
9.9%
12%
5.2%
1.7%
0.4%
2
10%
9.9%
4.8%
1.6%
0.4%
3
6.4%
6.2%
3.0%
1.0%
0.2%
4
3.0%
2.9%
1.4%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Polessya goals (down), columns = Zorya Luhansk goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shakhtar Donetsk
2.40
Livyi Bereh
2.00
LNZ Cherkasy
2.00
Polessya
1.97
Dynamo Kyiv
1.90
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
1.70
Kolos Kovalivka
1.63
Kryvbas KR
1.60
Zorya Luhansk
1.53
Karpaty
1.37
Chornomorets
1.36
Bukovyna
1.29
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.07
Veres Rivne
1.03
Obolon'-Brovar
0.97
Kudrivka
0.94
Polessya is 0.43 points better than Zorya Luhansk in terms of average points per game (1.97 vs 1.53).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Shakhtar Donetsk
2.37
Dynamo Kyiv
2.20
Kryvbas KR
1.77
Polessya
1.70
Zorya Luhansk
1.40
Karpaty
1.33
LNZ Cherkasy
1.30
Chornomorets
1.23
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
1.20
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.20
Bukovyna
1.17
Kudrivka
1.06
Kolos Kovalivka
1.00
Livyi Bereh
1.00
Veres Rivne
0.87
Obolon'-Brovar
0.86
Polessya is 0.30 goals better than Zorya Luhansk in terms of goals scored per game (1.70 vs 1.40).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Livyi Bereh
0.50
LNZ Cherkasy
0.57
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
0.63
Shakhtar Donetsk
0.70
Polessya
0.70
Kolos Kovalivka
0.83
Karpaty
1.03
Zorya Luhansk
1.20
Dynamo Kyiv
1.20
Chornomorets
1.24
Bukovyna
1.30
Veres Rivne
1.33
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.50
Kryvbas KR
1.53
Kudrivka
1.56
Obolon'-Brovar
1.69
Polessya is 0.50 goals better than Zorya Luhansk in terms of goals conceded per game (0.70 vs 1.20).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Shakhtar Donetsk
68%
Dynamo Kyiv
62%
Livyi Bereh
58%
Polessya
57%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
56%
Zorya Luhansk
52%
Kolos Kovalivka
49%
Kudrivka
49%
Karpaty
49%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
48%
Kryvbas KR
48%
LNZ Cherkasy
44%
Veres Rivne
43%
Obolon'-Brovar
42%
Polessya is 5.0 percentage points better than Zorya Luhansk in terms of average possession (57% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Polessya
For 6.1 · Against 2.5 · Total 8.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 1.1 · Total 2.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.7 · Against 8.1 · Total 17.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Zorya Luhansk
For 5.2 · Against 6.0 · Total 11.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 10.7 · Total 22.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Polessya
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
8.9
9.5
2.3
2.1
2.5
19.9
18.4
21.2
vs Stronger (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
8.2
8.1
8.2
3.1
3.1
3.0
18.6
17.7
19.7
vs Weaker (31)
10.0
9.6
10.3
2.1
1.6
2.5
20.8
19.0
22.0
% over line
29%
21%
35%
26%
21%
31%
32%
21%
41%
% under line
71%
79%
65%
74%
79%
69%
68%
79%
59%
This opponent (Zorya Luhansk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zorya Luhansk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
9.4
12.2
2.1
2.2
2.1
22.0
20.4
23.7
vs Stronger (7)
12.0
10.0
14.0
1.4
2.0
1.0
19.5
19.0
20.0
vs Similar (29)
10.6
9.2
12.0
2.6
2.5
2.7
21.9
20.9
23.0
vs Weaker (14)
10.8
9.7
12.0
1.5
1.5
1.5
23.2
19.3
27.0
% over line
62%
46%
77%
28%
27%
29%
46%
38%
54%
% under line
38%
54%
23%
72%
73%
71%
54%
62%
46%
This opponent (Polessya) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Zorya Luhansk
10.5
Kryvbas KR
10.0
Dynamo Kyiv
9.9
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
9.8
Veres Rivne
9.8
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
9.7
Polessya
9.5
Kudrivka
9.4
Livyi Bereh
9.2
Obolon'-Brovar
9.1
LNZ Cherkasy
9.1
Shakhtar Donetsk
8.9
Chornomorets
8.8
Kolos Kovalivka
8.6
Karpaty
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Karpaty
4.9
Obolon'-Brovar
4.6
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
4.6
LNZ Cherkasy
4.5
Veres Rivne
4.4
Chornomorets
4.4
Livyi Bereh
4.4
Polessya
4.2
Zorya Luhansk
4.1
Dynamo Kyiv
4.0
Kolos Kovalivka
3.9
Kudrivka
3.8
Shakhtar Donetsk
3.8
Kryvbas KR
3.6
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Obolon'-Brovar
26.9
Livyi Bereh
26.2
Kudrivka
25.1
Kryvbas KR
24.6
Karpaty
24.2
Kolos Kovalivka
24.0
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
23.7
LNZ Cherkasy
23.0
Veres Rivne
22.8
Chornomorets
22.4
Zorya Luhansk
22.0
Dynamo Kyiv
21.3
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
21.2
Polessya
20.6
Shakhtar Donetsk
19.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
55.6%
@ 1.87+5.7%
Under 9.5
44.4%
@ 1.86-5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.93
1xBet
1.92
Betano
1.88
Bet365
1.82
10Bet
1.80
Under
Bet365
1.98
10Bet
1.91
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.78
Pinnacle
1.78
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
42.7%
Under 3.5
57.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
50.8%
Under 21.5
49.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Polessya or Draw✗ Miss
81.8%
Avg Implied 84.9% · @ 1.10
Edge
-3.1%
57%
24%
18%
covers Polessya + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.13
888Sport
1.11
William Hil
1.11
1xBet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Polessya or Zorya Luhansk✓ Hit
75.5%
Avg Implied 77.8% · @ 1.20
Edge
-2.3%
57%
24%
18%
covers Polessya + Zorya Luhansk
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.22
888Sport
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Betano
1.21
Betfair
1.20
Draw or Zorya Luhansk✓ Hit
42.7%
Avg Implied 37.3% · @ 2.50
Edge
+5.4%
57%
24%
18%
covers Draw + Zorya Luhansk
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
2.70
1xBet
2.62
William Hil
2.50
888Sport
2.50
10Bet
2.45
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Polessya over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
84.5%
@ 1.12+1.8%
Under
15.5%
@ 5.39-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.14
888Sport
1.13
1xBet
1.13
Betfair
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Under
Betfair
6.00
888Sport
5.50
1xBet
5.45
Bet365
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Polessya over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
55.7%
@ 1.64-1.1%
Under
44.3%
@ 2.15+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.70
Bet365
1.67
10Bet
1.65
888Sport
1.65
1xBet
1.64
Under
Pinnacle
2.30
Betfair
2.25
1xBet
2.17
888Sport
2.15
Bet365
2.10
Polessya over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
28.7%
@ 3.05-1.8%
Under
71.3%
@ 1.34+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
888Sport
3.00
Betfair
3.00
1xBet
2.95
Under
1xBet
1.37
Betfair
1.33
Bet365
1.33
888Sport
1.33
Polessya over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
12.0%
@ 6.25-3.0%
Under
88.0%
@ 1.10+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.00
1xBet
6.00
Under
Bet365
1.10
888Sport
1.10
Betfair
1.10
1xBet
1.09
Zorya Luhansk over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
62.1%
@ 1.74+8.9%
Under
37.9%
@ 1.98-8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.79
1xBet
1.75
Betfair
1.73
Betano
1.72
Under
Pinnacle
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Betano
2.00
888Sport
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Zorya Luhansk over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
25.3%
@ 4.61+5.2%
Under
74.7%
@ 1.16-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.00
888Sport
4.60
1xBet
4.60
Bet365
4.50
10Bet
4.33
Under
1xBet
1.17
888Sport
1.17
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
Zorya Luhansk over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
7.5%
@ 12.50-0.1%
Under
92.5%
@ 1.02+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
17.00
Bet365
10.50
1xBet
10.00
Under
888Sport
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Zorya Luhansk over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.7%
@ 21.00-98.3%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
21.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Polessya, so a minus line means Polessya give that many goals of a start and Zorya Luhansk receive them. At -1, Polessya must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Polessya win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Polessya)Actual: Zorya Luhansk
Polessya -2
16.1%
@ 4.50-3.9%
Draw -2
18.0%
@ 4.33-2.8%
Zorya Luhansk +2
65.9%
@ 1.51+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Draw
Betfair
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Away
Betfair
1.53
Bet365
1.50
Handicap -1 (Polessya)Actual: Zorya Luhansk
Polessya -1
34.1%
@ 2.34-4.0%
Draw -1
23.3%
@ 3.42-2.9%
Zorya Luhansk +1
42.7%
@ 2.49+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
2.40
Bet365
2.38
Betfair
2.25
Draw
Bet365
3.50
Betfair
3.40
10Bet
3.35
Away
Betfair
2.63
10Bet
2.45
Bet365
2.40
Handicap +1 (Polessya)Actual: Draw
Polessya +1
81.8%
@ 1.10+0.6%
Draw +1
11.6%
@ 7.50-0.3%
Zorya Luhansk -1
6.6%
@ 13.00-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.10
Draw
Bet365
7.50
Away
Bet365
13.00
Handicap +2 (Polessya)Actual: Polessya
Polessya +2
93.4%
@ 1.03+0.7%
Draw +2
4.9%
@ 19.00-0.2%
Zorya Luhansk -2
1.8%
@ 41.00-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.03
Draw
Bet365
19.00
Away
Bet365
41.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Polessya
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.23
0.86
0.14
1.19
0.31
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (9)
1.11
0.44
1.25
0.25
1.00
0.60
vs Weaker (19)
1.11
0.16
0.78
0.11
1.40
0.20
Clean sheet %
83% (+51pp vs league)
This opponent (Zorya Luhansk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zorya Luhansk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.53
0.53
0.40
0.80
0.67
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (17)
0.53
0.71
0.44
0.56
0.62
0.88
vs Weaker (9)
1.11
0.22
1.00
0.00
1.20
0.40
Clean sheet %
60% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Polessya) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Polessya over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polessya over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polessya over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zorya Luhansk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zorya Luhansk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zorya Luhansk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Polessya
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.53
0.93
0.43
0.75
0.62
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (9)
0.56
0.89
0.75
0.75
0.40
1.00
vs Weaker (19)
1.05
0.37
1.11
0.33
1.00
0.40
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Zorya Luhansk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zorya Luhansk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.73
0.80
0.60
0.73
0.87
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.25
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (17)
0.76
0.71
0.78
0.78
0.75
0.62
vs Weaker (9)
0.89
0.56
0.75
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Polessya) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Polessya over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polessya over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polessya over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zorya Luhansk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zorya Luhansk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zorya Luhansk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 3.5 goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
93.4%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
92.5%
1.02
888Sport
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
-
+0.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
88.0%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
888Sport
1.10
Betfair
1.10
1xBet
1.09
-
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
84.5%
1.12
Bet365
1.14
888Sport
1.13
1xBet
1.13
Betfair
1.11
10Bet
1.11
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
81.8%
1.10
Betano
1.13
888Sport
1.11
William Hil
1.11
1xBet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-3.1%
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
81.8%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+0.6%
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
78.6%
1.27
1xBet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Betano
1.28
888Sport
1.25
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.5%
1.20
William Hil
1.22
888Sport
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Betano
1.21
Betfair
1.20
-2.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
74.7%
1.16
1xBet
1.17
888Sport
1.17
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
-5.2%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
71.3%
1.34
1xBet
1.37
Betfair
1.33
Bet365
1.33
888Sport
1.33
-
+1.8%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Polessya · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Oleksandr Nazarenko30%
Oleksiy Gutsulyak29%
Oleksandr Andriyevskyi25%
Danylo Beskorovaynyi25%
Igor Krasnopir25%
Mykola Haiduchyk23%
Eduard Sarapiyy18%
Vladyslav Veleten17%
Giorgi Maisuradze17%
Maksym Bragaru12%
Lindon Emërllahu12%
Bohdan Liedniev10%
Talles Costa10%
Oleh Kudryk0%
Mykyta Kravchenko0%
Volodymyr Shepeliev0%
Andi Hadroj0%
Serhii Chobotenko0%
Bogdan Mykhaylichenko0%
Oleksandr Filippov0%
Ruslan Babenko0%
Yevgen Volynets0%
Tomer Yosefi0%
Ilir Krasniqi0%
Borys Krushynskyi0%
João Vialle0%
André Gonçalves0%
Oleg Fedor0%
Maksym Melnychenko0%
Yaroslav Karaman0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Vladyslav Veleten33%
Yaroslav Karaman33%
Borys Krushynskyi31%
Danylo Beskorovaynyi25%
Talles Costa20%
Yevgen Volynets19%
Serhii Chobotenko17%
Oleg Fedor17%
Bogdan Mykhaylichenko15%
Eduard Sarapiyy14%
Maksym Bragaru12%
Ilir Krasniqi12%
Mykyta Kravchenko11%
Bohdan Liedniev10%
Oleksandr Nazarenko5%
Ruslan Babenko5%
Oleh Kudryk0%
Oleksandr Andriyevskyi0%
Volodymyr Shepeliev0%
Andi Hadroj0%
Oleksandr Filippov0%
Oleksiy Gutsulyak0%
Tomer Yosefi0%
Giorgi Maisuradze0%
Mykola Haiduchyk0%
João Vialle0%
Lindon Emërllahu0%
André Gonçalves0%
Igor Krasnopir0%
Maksym Melnychenko0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Vladyslav Veleten33%
Igor Krasnopir25%
Oleg Fedor17%
Borys Krushynskyi15%
Maksym Bragaru12%
Lindon Emërllahu12%
Bohdan Liedniev10%
Oleksiy Gutsulyak10%
Serhii Chobotenko6%
Oleksandr Andriyevskyi5%
Bogdan Mykhaylichenko5%
Oleksandr Nazarenko5%
Oleh Kudryk0%
Mykyta Kravchenko0%
Volodymyr Shepeliev0%
Andi Hadroj0%
Danylo Beskorovaynyi0%
Oleksandr Filippov0%
Ruslan Babenko0%
Yevgen Volynets0%
Tomer Yosefi0%
Eduard Sarapiyy0%
Talles Costa0%
Ilir Krasniqi0%
Giorgi Maisuradze0%
Mykola Haiduchyk0%
João Vialle0%
André Gonçalves0%
Maksym Melnychenko0%
Yaroslav Karaman0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Oleksiy Gutsulyak29%
Eduard Sarapiyy23%
Tomer Yosefi17%
Mykola Haiduchyk14%
Maksym Bragaru12%
Oleksandr Andriyevskyi10%
Bohdan Liedniev10%
Borys Krushynskyi8%
Oleksandr Filippov6%
Oleksandr Nazarenko5%
Ruslan Babenko5%
Oleh Kudryk0%
Mykyta Kravchenko0%
Volodymyr Shepeliev0%
Andi Hadroj0%
Danylo Beskorovaynyi0%
Serhii Chobotenko0%
Bogdan Mykhaylichenko0%
Yevgen Volynets0%
Vladyslav Veleten0%
Talles Costa0%
Ilir Krasniqi0%
Giorgi Maisuradze0%
João Vialle0%
Lindon Emërllahu0%
André Gonçalves0%
Igor Krasnopir0%
Oleg Fedor0%
Maksym Melnychenko0%
Yaroslav Karaman0%
Zorya Luhansk · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Roman Vantukh36%
Pylyp Budkivskyi36%
Nemanja Anđušić27%
Igor Perduta20%
Petar Mićin12%
Artem Slesar12%
Roman Salenko11%
Andrija Janjić9%
Bohdan Kushnirenko8%
Reis Rodriguez Leovigildo Junior7%
Anderson Jordan6%
Jakov Bašić0%
Kyrylo Dryshlyuk0%
Mykyta Turbaievskyi0%
Dejan Popara0%
Ruan Oliveira0%
Gabriel Eskinja0%
Domagoj Jelavić0%
Igor Gorbach0%
Oleksandr Saputin0%
Navin Malysh0%
Andrii Matkevych0%
Sallieu Bah0%
Fedir Zadorozhyi0%
Reynaldiño Verley0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Andrija Janjić36%
Bohdan Kushnirenko33%
Sallieu Bah33%
Dejan Popara23%
Jakov Bašić22%
Pylyp Budkivskyi21%
Gabriel Eskinja14%
Reis Rodriguez Leovigildo Junior13%
Anderson Jordan12%
Igor Perduta10%
Roman Vantukh9%
Nemanja Anđušić9%
Artem Slesar6%
Petar Mićin0%
Kyrylo Dryshlyuk0%
Mykyta Turbaievskyi0%
Ruan Oliveira0%
Domagoj Jelavić0%
Roman Salenko0%
Igor Gorbach0%
Oleksandr Saputin0%
Navin Malysh0%
Andrii Matkevych0%
Fedir Zadorozhyi0%
Reynaldiño Verley0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Reis Rodriguez Leovigildo Junior20%
Dejan Popara15%
Gabriel Eskinja14%
Igor Gorbach12%
Jakov Bašić11%
Roman Vantukh9%
Nemanja Anđušić9%
Pylyp Budkivskyi7%
Anderson Jordan6%
Artem Slesar6%
Igor Perduta0%
Petar Mićin0%
Kyrylo Dryshlyuk0%
Bohdan Kushnirenko0%
Mykyta Turbaievskyi0%
Ruan Oliveira0%
Domagoj Jelavić0%
Roman Salenko0%
Oleksandr Saputin0%
Andrija Janjić0%
Navin Malysh0%
Andrii Matkevych0%
Sallieu Bah0%
Fedir Zadorozhyi0%
Reynaldiño Verley0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Pylyp Budkivskyi29%
Artem Slesar25%
Domagoj Jelavić20%
Nemanja Anđušić18%
Bohdan Kushnirenko17%
Jakov Bašić11%
Igor Perduta0%
Petar Mićin0%
Kyrylo Dryshlyuk0%
Roman Vantukh0%
Anderson Jordan0%
Reis Rodriguez Leovigildo Junior0%
Mykyta Turbaievskyi0%
Dejan Popara0%
Ruan Oliveira0%
Gabriel Eskinja0%
Roman Salenko0%
Igor Gorbach0%
Oleksandr Saputin0%
Andrija Janjić0%
Navin Malysh0%
Andrii Matkevych0%
Sallieu Bah0%
Fedir Zadorozhyi0%
Reynaldiño Verley0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SD (33)
€186m
DK (37)
€91m
POL (32)
€34m
M1K (26)
€28m
LC (25)
€20m
KAR (28)
€13m
KK (27)
€13m
ZL (27)
€11m
KK (19)
€11m
BUK (25)
€9m
VR (21)
€7m
OBO (28)
€7m
ED (23)
€6m
CHO (21)
€5m
KUD (24)
€5m
LB (25)
€5m
Polessya's squad is €22m more valuable than Zorya Luhansk's (€34m vs €11m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SD (16)
€115m
DK (13)
€32m
POL (9)
€12m
M1K (10)
€10m
LC (9)
€8m
KK (10)
€5m
KAR (8)
€4m
BUK (10)
€4m
ZL (11)
€3m
KK (7)
€3m
VR (9)
€3m
OBO (9)
€2m
CHO (7)
€2m
LB (7)
€2m
KUD (8)
€2m
ED (6)
€1m
Polessya's attack is €9m more valuable than Zorya Luhansk's (€12m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DK (8)
€26m
SD (4)
€19m
POL (9)
€8m
M1K (6)
€7m
LC (5)
€5m
KK (4)
€3m
ZL (5)
€3m
KAR (5)
€2m
KK (5)
€2m
BUK (5)
€2m
ED (6)
€2m
CHO (7)
€2m
OBO (5)
€1m
KUD (6)
€1m
VR (4)
€1m
LB (6)
€1m
Polessya's midfield is €6m more valuable than Zorya Luhansk's (€8m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SD (13)
€52m
DK (16)
€33m
POL (14)
€14m
M1K (10)
€11m
LC (11)
€7m
KAR (15)
€7m
KK (7)
€6m
ZL (11)
€6m
KK (13)
€5m
VR (8)
€4m
BUK (10)
€3m
ED (11)
€3m
OBO (14)
€3m
KUD (10)
€3m
LB (12)
€2m
CHO (7)
€2m
Polessya's defence is €8m more valuable than Zorya Luhansk's (€14m vs €6m).
Ukraine: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ukraine: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Karpaty
Shakhtar Donetsk
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Dynamo Kyiv
Bukovyna
Veres Rivne
Kryvbas KR
LNZ Cherkasy
Livyi Bereh
Chornomorets
Obolon'-Brovar
Kudrivka
Kolos Kovalivka