This opponent (Colchester) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Colchester
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.20
0.94
1.12
0.57
1.29
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (24)
0.71
1.33
0.77
1.15
0.64
1.55
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.50
2.00
0.50
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Port Vale) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
65.0%
Under 1.5
35.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
36.9%
@ 2.25-5.0%
Under 2.5
63.1%
@ 1.62+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
17.4%
Under 3.5
82.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
43.1%
No
56.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%
1-0
13.9%
0-0
12.7%
2-0
10.1%
2-1
8.5%
0-1
8.3%
1-2
5.4%
3-0 ✓
4.5%
Port Vale goals ↓
Colchester goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
8.3%
4.0%
1.1%
0.2%
1
14%
14%
5.4%
1.5%
0.3%
2
10%
8.5%
3.6%
1.0%
0.2%
3
4.5%
3.7%
1.6%
0.4%
0.1%
4
1.5%
1.2%
0.5%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Port Vale goals (down), columns = Colchester goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Exeter
1.83
Forest Green
1.83
Bristol Rvs
1.74
Northampton
1.74
Port Vale
1.70
Swindon
1.67
Mansfield
1.67
Sutton
1.65
Tranmere
1.63
Salford
1.52
Newport County
1.50
Crawley Town
1.33
Leyton Orient
1.26
Bradford
1.26
Colchester
1.20
Walsall
1.17
Hartlepool
1.17
Carlisle
1.15
Rochdale
1.15
Harrogate
1.15
Stevenage
1.02
Barrow
0.96
Oldham
0.83
Scunthorpe
0.57
Port Vale is 0.50 points better than Colchester in terms of average points per game (1.70 vs 1.20).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Swindon
1.67
Forest Green
1.63
Bristol Rvs
1.54
Sutton
1.50
Newport County
1.46
Port Vale
1.46
Mansfield
1.46
Exeter
1.41
Harrogate
1.39
Leyton Orient
1.35
Salford
1.30
Northampton
1.30
Crawley Town
1.22
Tranmere
1.15
Bradford
1.15
Rochdale
1.11
Colchester
1.04
Walsall
1.02
Oldham
1.00
Stevenage
0.98
Hartlepool
0.96
Barrow
0.96
Carlisle
0.85
Scunthorpe
0.63
Port Vale is 0.41 goals better than Colchester in terms of goals scored per game (1.46 vs 1.04).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Northampton
0.83
Tranmere
0.87
Exeter
0.89
Forest Green
0.96
Port Vale
1.00
Salford
1.00
Leyton Orient
1.02
Bristol Rvs
1.07
Mansfield
1.13
Sutton
1.15
Swindon
1.17
Bradford
1.20
Barrow
1.24
Newport County
1.26
Rochdale
1.28
Walsall
1.30
Colchester
1.30
Carlisle
1.35
Hartlepool
1.39
Crawley Town
1.43
Stevenage
1.48
Oldham
1.63
Harrogate
1.63
Scunthorpe
1.96
Port Vale is 0.30 goals better than Colchester in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.30).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Swindon
60%
Forest Green
54%
Rochdale
54%
Leyton Orient
53%
Exeter
53%
Salford
51%
Newport County
51%
Mansfield
51%
Tranmere
51%
Hartlepool
51%
Harrogate
51%
Barrow
51%
Port Vale
50%
Walsall
49%
Bradford
49%
Oldham
48%
Northampton
48%
Crawley Town
47%
Colchester
47%
Carlisle
46%
Stevenage
46%
Scunthorpe
46%
Sutton
44%
Port Vale is 3.4 percentage points better than Colchester in terms of average possession (50% vs 47%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Port Vale
For 5.3 · Against 3.7 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.1 · Against 11.1 · Total 21.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Colchester
For 4.5 · Against 6.0 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.7 · Against 11.2 · Total 22.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Port Vale
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
8.3
10.2
3.0
2.7
3.3
23.8
24.1
23.5
vs Stronger (2)
8.5
7.0
10.0
2.0
3.0
1.0
25.0
25.0
25.0
vs Similar (33)
9.5
8.6
10.4
3.1
2.6
3.6
24.1
24.4
23.7
vs Weaker (15)
8.9
8.0
9.8
2.9
2.9
2.9
22.9
23.1
22.8
% over line
54%
42%
65%
34%
29%
38%
68%
67%
69%
% under line
46%
58%
35%
66%
71%
62%
32%
33%
31%
This opponent (Colchester) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Colchester
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
9.7
10.2
3.2
3.5
3.0
22.9
23.5
22.3
vs Stronger (4)
7.8
5.0
10.5
1.2
1.5
1.0
21.2
24.5
18.0
vs Similar (37)
9.9
10.2
9.7
3.4
3.7
3.1
22.7
23.0
22.4
vs Weaker (9)
11.0
10.0
11.8
3.2
3.2
3.2
24.3
25.2
23.6
% over line
52%
52%
52%
38%
52%
24%
66%
76%
56%
% under line
48%
48%
48%
62%
48%
76%
34%
24%
44%
This opponent (Port Vale) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sutton
11.2
Exeter
10.7
Oldham
10.6
Carlisle
10.2
Crawley Town
10.1
Bristol Rvs
10.1
Rochdale
10.0
Forest Green
10.0
Colchester
10.0
Harrogate
9.9
Tranmere
9.9
Swindon
9.8
Leyton Orient
9.6
Bradford
9.6
Barrow
9.5
Scunthorpe
9.4
Mansfield
9.4
Northampton
9.3
Walsall
9.3
Port Vale
9.3
Stevenage
9.2
Newport County
8.8
Hartlepool
8.6
Salford
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Sutton
4.0
Barrow
3.8
Bristol Rvs
3.8
Salford
3.6
Northampton
3.5
Leyton Orient
3.5
Mansfield
3.4
Oldham
3.3
Forest Green
3.3
Carlisle
3.3
Colchester
3.2
Swindon
3.2
Newport County
3.2
Crawley Town
3.1
Tranmere
3.1
Walsall
3.0
Stevenage
3.0
Port Vale
3.0
Hartlepool
3.0
Bradford
2.9
Scunthorpe
2.9
Exeter
2.7
Harrogate
2.7
Rochdale
2.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Northampton
26.5
Bristol Rvs
26.2
Mansfield
26.2
Carlisle
26.1
Crawley Town
26.1
Walsall
25.8
Tranmere
25.4
Stevenage
24.4
Swindon
24.4
Barrow
24.2
Salford
24.1
Harrogate
24.1
Scunthorpe
24.1
Forest Green
23.9
Leyton Orient
23.8
Port Vale
23.8
Bradford
23.6
Newport County
23.5
Sutton
23.0
Hartlepool
22.9
Colchester
22.9
Oldham
22.3
Exeter
21.6
Rochdale
21.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
55.0%
Under 9.5
45.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
38.2%
Under 3.5
61.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
28.8%
Under 21.5
71.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Port Vale
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.43
0.53
0.33
0.73
0.53
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.55
0.55
0.50
0.40
0.60
0.70
vs Weaker (9)
0.89
0.22
0.75
0.25
1.00
0.20
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Colchester) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Colchester
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.57
0.44
0.62
0.36
0.50
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (24)
0.33
0.62
0.31
0.62
0.36
0.64
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.25
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Port Vale) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Port Vale over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Port Vale over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Port Vale over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colchester over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colchester over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colchester over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Port Vale
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.47
0.53
0.53
0.60
0.40
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.60
0.40
0.60
0.50
0.60
0.30
vs Weaker (9)
0.56
0.56
0.50
0.50
0.60
0.60
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Colchester) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Colchester
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.63
0.50
0.50
0.21
0.79
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (24)
0.38
0.71
0.46
0.54
0.27
0.91
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.25
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Port Vale) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Port Vale over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Port Vale over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Port Vale over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colchester over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colchester over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Colchester over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 21.5 fouls
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Port Vale · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
C. Humphreys0%
B. Waine0%
Liam Gordon0%
Onel Hernández0%
Kyle Dempsey0%
L. Montsma0%
Connor Hall0%
Tyreece Simpson0%
Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel0%
B. Garrity0%
J. Headley0%
J. Smith0%
G. Hall0%
R. Walters0%
Oliver Lynch0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
B. Garrity33%
C. Humphreys25%
Kyle Dempsey25%
Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel25%
B. Waine0%
Liam Gordon0%
Onel Hernández0%
L. Montsma0%
Connor Hall0%
Tyreece Simpson0%
J. Headley0%
J. Smith0%
G. Hall0%
R. Walters0%
Oliver Lynch0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel25%
C. Humphreys0%
B. Waine0%
Liam Gordon0%
Onel Hernández0%
Kyle Dempsey0%
L. Montsma0%
Connor Hall0%
Tyreece Simpson0%
B. Garrity0%
J. Headley0%
J. Smith0%
G. Hall0%
R. Walters0%
Oliver Lynch0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
C. Humphreys0%
B. Waine0%
Liam Gordon0%
Onel Hernández0%
Kyle Dempsey0%
L. Montsma0%
Connor Hall0%
Tyreece Simpson0%
Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel0%
B. Garrity0%
J. Headley0%
J. Smith0%
G. Hall0%
R. Walters0%
Oliver Lynch0%
Colchester · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jaden Williams33%
Harry Anderson25%
P. Digby0%
K. Vincent-Young0%
Ellis Iandolo0%
Rob Hunt0%
S. Raggett0%
J. Tucker0%
J. Payne0%
T. Lo-Tutala0%
O. Thorn0%
F. Terry0%
Bradley Ihionvien0%
Leon Chiwome0%
M. Sesay0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
K. Vincent-Young25%
Ellis Iandolo25%
Rob Hunt25%
J. Tucker25%
Harry Anderson0%
P. Digby0%
S. Raggett0%
J. Payne0%
T. Lo-Tutala0%
O. Thorn0%
F. Terry0%
Jaden Williams0%
Bradley Ihionvien0%
Leon Chiwome0%
M. Sesay0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
K. Vincent-Young25%
O. Thorn25%
Harry Anderson0%
P. Digby0%
Ellis Iandolo0%
Rob Hunt0%
S. Raggett0%
J. Tucker0%
J. Payne0%
T. Lo-Tutala0%
F. Terry0%
Jaden Williams0%
Bradley Ihionvien0%
Leon Chiwome0%
M. Sesay0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Harry Anderson75%
M. Sesay33%
P. Digby0%
K. Vincent-Young0%
Ellis Iandolo0%
Rob Hunt0%
S. Raggett0%
J. Tucker0%
J. Payne0%
T. Lo-Tutala0%
O. Thorn0%
F. Terry0%
Jaden Williams0%
Bradley Ihionvien0%
Leon Chiwome0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LO (23)
€10m
SAL (26)
€8m
BRA (21)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
PV (23)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
BR (24)
€5m
SWI (22)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
OLD (21)
€3m
ROC (10)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
BAR (11)
€2m
HAR (14)
€1m
FG (4)
€1m
HAR (6)
€1m
SCU (2)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
Port Vale's squad is €3m more valuable than Colchester's (€7m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LO (6)
€4m
BRA (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
STE (6)
€2m
BR (10)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (3)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
HAR (4)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
SCU (1)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
Port Vale and Colchester have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MAN (5)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
TRA (6)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
BAR (5)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
HAR (4)
€1m
BR (4)
€0m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
SCU (0)
€0m
FG (0)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
Port Vale's midfield is €2m more valuable than Colchester's (€2m vs €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (11)
€3m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
MAN (12)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
BAR (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
SCU (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
Port Vale's defence is €2m more valuable than Colchester's (€3m vs €2m).
England: League Two 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
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Forest Green
Exeter
Bristol Rvs
Northampton
Swindon
Mansfield
Sutton
Tranmere
Salford
Newport County
Crawley Town
Leyton Orient
Bradford
Walsall
Hartlepool
Rochdale
Harrogate
Carlisle
Stevenage
Barrow
Oldham
Scunthorpe