This opponent (Exeter) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Exeter
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.33
0.80
0.80
1.07
1.87
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
2.80
0.67
1.67
0.00
4.50
vs Similar (24)
1.00
1.04
0.73
0.55
1.23
1.46
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Port Vale) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
67.3%
Under 1.5
32.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
39.4%
@ 1.92-9.6%
Under 2.5
60.6%
@ 1.84+9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
19.3%
Under 3.5
80.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.2%
No
52.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%
0-0
11.8%
1-0
10.7%
0-1
10.2%
2-1
7.7%
1-2
7.4%
2-0
7.0%
0-2
6.4%
Port Vale goals ↓
Exeter goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
10%
6.4%
2.3%
0.6%
1
11%
15%
7.4%
2.7%
0.8%
2
7.0%
7.7%
4.3%
1.6%
0.4%
3
2.7%
3.0%
1.6%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.8%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Port Vale goals (down), columns = Exeter goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Portsmouth
2.11
Derby
2.00
Bolton
1.89
Peterboro
1.83
Oxford
1.67
Barnsley
1.65
Lincoln
1.61
Blackpool
1.59
Stevenage
1.54
Wigan
1.52
Leyton Orient
1.41
Wycombe
1.41
Exeter
1.33
Northampton
1.30
Reading
1.28
Bristol Rvs
1.24
Charlton
1.15
Cambridge
1.04
Shrewsbury
1.04
Burton
1.00
Cheltenham
0.96
Fleetwood Town
0.93
Port Vale
0.89
Carlisle
0.65
Port Vale is 0.43 points worse than Exeter in terms of average points per game (0.89 vs 1.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Peterboro
1.93
Bolton
1.87
Barnsley
1.78
Oxford
1.72
Derby
1.70
Portsmouth
1.70
Reading
1.48
Lincoln
1.41
Blackpool
1.41
Charlton
1.39
Wigan
1.37
Wycombe
1.30
Northampton
1.24
Stevenage
1.24
Leyton Orient
1.15
Bristol Rvs
1.13
Fleetwood Town
1.07
Exeter
1.00
Port Vale
0.89
Carlisle
0.89
Cheltenham
0.89
Cambridge
0.85
Burton
0.85
Shrewsbury
0.76
Port Vale is 0.11 goals worse than Exeter in terms of goals scored per game (0.89 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Derby
0.80
Lincoln
0.87
Portsmouth
0.89
Stevenage
1.00
Blackpool
1.04
Bolton
1.11
Leyton Orient
1.20
Wycombe
1.20
Oxford
1.22
Wigan
1.22
Cambridge
1.33
Exeter
1.33
Peterboro
1.33
Barnsley
1.39
Charlton
1.41
Cheltenham
1.41
Northampton
1.43
Shrewsbury
1.46
Burton
1.46
Bristol Rvs
1.48
Reading
1.52
Fleetwood Town
1.57
Port Vale
1.61
Carlisle
1.76
Port Vale is 0.28 goals worse than Exeter in terms of goals conceded per game (1.61 vs 1.33).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Peterboro
62%
Bolton
60%
Portsmouth
59%
Exeter
54%
Barnsley
54%
Wigan
53%
Blackpool
53%
Reading
53%
Oxford
52%
Leyton Orient
52%
Charlton
52%
Derby
51%
Port Vale
49%
Northampton
49%
Fleetwood Town
47%
Wycombe
46%
Carlisle
46%
Stevenage
45%
Cambridge
44%
Cheltenham
44%
Lincoln
43%
Shrewsbury
41%
Burton
41%
Port Vale is 5.2 percentage points worse than Exeter in terms of average possession (49% vs 54%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Port Vale
For 4.2 · Against 7.7 · Total 11.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 1.3 · Total 2.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.5 · Against 9.7 · Total 19.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Exeter
For 5.8 · Against 5.7 · Total 11.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.7 · Against 9.6 · Total 21.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Port Vale
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.1
11.4
10.8
4.1
4.0
4.3
20.7
20.1
21.2
vs Stronger (7)
11.7
11.5
12.0
3.4
3.5
3.3
20.6
21.0
20.0
vs Similar (41)
11.0
11.1
10.8
4.3
4.3
4.4
20.7
20.2
21.2
vs Weaker (2)
11.5
16.0
7.0
2.5
0.0
5.0
20.5
15.0
26.0
% over line
66%
62%
69%
60%
54%
65%
50%
42%
58%
% under line
34%
38%
31%
40%
46%
35%
50%
58%
42%
This opponent (Exeter) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Exeter
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.4
11.8
11.0
4.3
4.8
3.7
21.3
21.8
20.8
vs Stronger (10)
9.2
10.0
8.0
3.2
3.2
3.2
21.1
22.3
19.2
vs Similar (37)
12.1
12.7
11.5
4.5
5.2
3.9
21.6
21.9
21.4
vs Weaker (3)
10.7
9.0
14.0
4.3
6.0
1.0
17.7
19.0
15.0
% over line
66%
69%
62%
62%
69%
54%
54%
62%
46%
% under line
34%
31%
38%
38%
31%
46%
46%
38%
54%
This opponent (Port Vale) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Fleetwood Town
11.5
Exeter
11.4
Derby
11.3
Port Vale
11.1
Charlton
11.1
Peterboro
10.9
Wycombe
10.9
Bristol Rvs
10.7
Bolton
10.6
Oxford
10.4
Barnsley
10.4
Shrewsbury
10.4
Reading
10.3
Portsmouth
10.2
Carlisle
10.0
Leyton Orient
10.0
Cheltenham
9.8
Blackpool
9.5
Stevenage
9.4
Cambridge
9.4
Lincoln
9.4
Wigan
9.3
Northampton
8.9
Burton
8.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Wigan
5.1
Portsmouth
4.9
Bristol Rvs
4.7
Oxford
4.4
Fleetwood Town
4.3
Bolton
4.3
Lincoln
4.3
Shrewsbury
4.3
Exeter
4.3
Barnsley
4.2
Blackpool
4.2
Stevenage
4.2
Port Vale
4.1
Cambridge
4.1
Charlton
4.0
Cheltenham
4.0
Leyton Orient
4.0
Reading
3.9
Wycombe
3.9
Derby
3.7
Peterboro
3.7
Burton
3.6
Carlisle
3.6
Northampton
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Stevenage
24.5
Wigan
24.5
Portsmouth
24.1
Bristol Rvs
23.1
Bolton
22.9
Cambridge
22.9
Cheltenham
22.6
Fleetwood Town
22.5
Blackpool
22.4
Oxford
22.1
Lincoln
21.9
Shrewsbury
21.8
Reading
21.4
Exeter
21.3
Derby
21.3
Burton
21.2
Wycombe
21.0
Port Vale
20.7
Leyton Orient
20.5
Charlton
20.4
Peterboro
20.3
Barnsley
20.2
Northampton
20.1
Carlisle
20.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
58.2%
Under 9.5
41.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
59.2%
Under 3.5
40.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
36.0%
Under 21.5
64.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Port Vale
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.53
0.60
0.60
0.20
0.47
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (26)
0.46
0.54
0.69
0.69
0.23
0.38
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Exeter) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Exeter
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.63
0.27
0.40
0.60
0.87
vs Stronger (5)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.67
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (24)
0.54
0.58
0.36
0.36
0.69
0.77
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Port Vale) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Port Vale over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Port Vale over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Port Vale over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Exeter over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Exeter over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Exeter over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Port Vale
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.33
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.54
0.96
0.77
1.00
0.31
0.92
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Exeter) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Exeter
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.70
0.53
0.40
0.47
1.00
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.80
0.67
1.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (24)
0.46
0.46
0.36
0.18
0.54
0.69
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Port Vale) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Port Vale over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Port Vale over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Port Vale over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Exeter over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Exeter over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Exeter over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 23.5 fouls
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Port Vale · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Cameron Humphreys0%
Ben Waine0%
Liam Gordon0%
Onel Hernández0%
Kyle Dempsey0%
Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel0%
Jackson Smith0%
Rhys Walters0%
Oliver Lynch0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Kyle Dempsey33%
Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel33%
Cameron Humphreys0%
Ben Waine0%
Liam Gordon0%
Onel Hernández0%
Jackson Smith0%
Rhys Walters0%
Oliver Lynch0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Cameron Humphreys0%
Ben Waine0%
Liam Gordon0%
Onel Hernández0%
Kyle Dempsey0%
Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel0%
Jackson Smith0%
Rhys Walters0%
Oliver Lynch0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Cameron Humphreys0%
Ben Waine0%
Liam Gordon0%
Onel Hernández0%
Kyle Dempsey0%
Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel0%
Jackson Smith0%
Rhys Walters0%
Oliver Lynch0%
Exeter · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jack Fitzwater67%
Reece Cole0%
Gwion Edwards0%
Josh Gordon0%
Taylor Perry0%
Jack Bycroft0%
Andrew Oluwabori0%
Ethan Sutherland0%
Edward James0%
Charlie Cummins0%
George Birch0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Charlie Cummins67%
Reece Cole33%
Gwion Edwards33%
Jack Fitzwater33%
Ethan Sutherland33%
Josh Gordon0%
Taylor Perry0%
Jack Bycroft0%
Andrew Oluwabori0%
Edward James0%
George Birch0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Andrew Oluwabori33%
Reece Cole0%
Gwion Edwards0%
Jack Fitzwater0%
Josh Gordon0%
Taylor Perry0%
Jack Bycroft0%
Ethan Sutherland0%
Edward James0%
Charlie Cummins0%
George Birch0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Reece Cole0%
Gwion Edwards0%
Jack Fitzwater0%
Josh Gordon0%
Taylor Perry0%
Jack Bycroft0%
Andrew Oluwabori0%
Ethan Sutherland0%
Edward James0%
Charlie Cummins0%
George Birch0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DER (25)
€57m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
OXF (24)
€20m
BOL (22)
€17m
LIN (24)
€12m
BLA (22)
€11m
LO (23)
€10m
WYC (24)
€10m
REA (20)
€10m
BAR (21)
€8m
WIG (21)
€7m
PET (23)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
PV (23)
€7m
BR (24)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
SHR (17)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
CAR (1)
€0m
Port Vale's squad is €4m more valuable than Exeter's (€7m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DER (8)
€25m
CHA (13)
€18m
POR (12)
€13m
OXF (8)
€6m
LO (6)
€4m
BLA (8)
€4m
BOL (6)
€4m
LIN (7)
€3m
REA (6)
€3m
PET (8)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
STE (6)
€2m
BR (10)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
WIG (8)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
BUR (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
SHR (3)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
Port Vale and Exeter have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DER (6)
€14m
OXF (4)
€6m
POR (5)
€5m
BOL (4)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
REA (5)
€3m
BAR (7)
€3m
BLA (5)
€3m
WIG (8)
€2m
WYC (5)
€2m
PV (7)
€2m
LIN (4)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
BR (4)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
Port Vale's midfield is €1m more valuable than Exeter's (€2m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DER (11)
€18m
POR (13)
€14m
CHA (13)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
OXF (12)
€8m
LIN (13)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
BLA (9)
€4m
REA (9)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
PV (11)
€3m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
WIG (5)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
CAM (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
FT (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
CAR (1)
€0m
Port Vale's defence is €2m more valuable than Exeter's (€3m vs €1m).
England: League One 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League One stats & trends →
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Portsmouth
Derby
Bolton
Peterboro
Oxford
Barnsley
Lincoln
Blackpool
Stevenage
Wigan
Wycombe
Leyton Orient
Northampton
Reading
Bristol Rvs
Charlton
Cambridge
Shrewsbury
Burton
Cheltenham
Fleetwood Town
Carlisle