This opponent (Swindon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Swindon
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.63
1.36
1.36
1.69
1.88
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
1.50
2.00
1.50
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.33
1.76
1.00
1.22
1.58
2.17
vs Weaker (7)
2.00
1.29
2.00
1.67
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Port Vale) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.2%
Under 1.5
23.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
50.4%
@ 1.96+2.4%
Under 2.5
49.6%
@ 1.81-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
28.4%
Under 3.5
71.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.4%
No
44.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
2-1
9.0%
1-0
8.8%
0-0
8.0%
2-0
7.5%
1-2
7.3%
0-1
7.0%
2-2
5.4%
Port Vale goals ↓
Swindon goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.0%
7.0%
5.0%
2.0%
0.6%
1
8.8%
13%
7.3%
3.0%
0.9%
2
7.5%
9.0%
5.4%
2.2%
0.7%
3
3.7%
4.5%
2.7%
1.1%
0.3%
4
1.4%
1.6%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Port Vale goals (down), columns = Swindon goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Exeter
1.83
Forest Green
1.83
Bristol Rvs
1.74
Northampton
1.74
Port Vale
1.70
Swindon
1.67
Mansfield
1.67
Sutton
1.65
Tranmere
1.63
Salford
1.52
Newport County
1.50
Crawley Town
1.33
Leyton Orient
1.26
Bradford
1.26
Colchester
1.20
Walsall
1.17
Hartlepool
1.17
Carlisle
1.15
Rochdale
1.15
Harrogate
1.15
Stevenage
1.02
Barrow
0.96
Oldham
0.83
Scunthorpe
0.57
Port Vale is 0.02 points better than Swindon in terms of average points per game (1.70 vs 1.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Swindon
1.67
Forest Green
1.63
Bristol Rvs
1.54
Sutton
1.50
Newport County
1.46
Port Vale
1.46
Mansfield
1.46
Exeter
1.41
Harrogate
1.39
Leyton Orient
1.35
Salford
1.30
Northampton
1.30
Crawley Town
1.22
Tranmere
1.15
Bradford
1.15
Rochdale
1.11
Colchester
1.04
Walsall
1.02
Oldham
1.00
Stevenage
0.98
Hartlepool
0.96
Barrow
0.96
Carlisle
0.85
Scunthorpe
0.63
Port Vale is 0.22 goals worse than Swindon in terms of goals scored per game (1.46 vs 1.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Northampton
0.83
Tranmere
0.87
Exeter
0.89
Forest Green
0.96
Port Vale
1.00
Salford
1.00
Leyton Orient
1.02
Bristol Rvs
1.07
Mansfield
1.13
Sutton
1.15
Swindon
1.17
Bradford
1.20
Barrow
1.24
Newport County
1.26
Rochdale
1.28
Walsall
1.30
Colchester
1.30
Carlisle
1.35
Hartlepool
1.39
Crawley Town
1.43
Stevenage
1.48
Oldham
1.63
Harrogate
1.63
Scunthorpe
1.96
Port Vale is 0.17 goals better than Swindon in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.17).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Swindon
60%
Forest Green
54%
Rochdale
54%
Leyton Orient
53%
Exeter
53%
Salford
51%
Newport County
51%
Mansfield
51%
Tranmere
51%
Hartlepool
51%
Harrogate
51%
Barrow
51%
Port Vale
50%
Walsall
49%
Bradford
49%
Oldham
48%
Northampton
48%
Crawley Town
47%
Colchester
47%
Carlisle
46%
Stevenage
46%
Scunthorpe
46%
Sutton
44%
Port Vale is 10.1 percentage points worse than Swindon in terms of average possession (50% vs 60%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Port Vale
For 4.6 · Against 3.5 · Total 8.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.9 · Against 13.0 · Total 24.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Swindon
For 5.9 · Against 4.3 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.4 · Against 11.4 · Total 20.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Port Vale
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
8.0
9.8
3.3
2.8
3.7
24.1
24.4
23.9
vs Stronger (1)
7.0
7.0
-
3.0
3.0
-
25.0
25.0
-
vs Similar (35)
8.8
7.6
9.8
3.3
2.6
3.9
24.5
24.8
24.2
vs Weaker (14)
9.4
9.0
9.9
3.1
3.3
2.9
23.2
23.4
23.0
% over line
52%
42%
62%
38%
29%
46%
76%
79%
73%
% under line
48%
58%
38%
62%
71%
54%
24%
21%
27%
This opponent (Swindon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Swindon
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
10.2
9.4
3.3
3.5
3.0
23.3
22.3
24.2
vs Stronger (9)
8.6
11.8
6.0
2.4
3.5
1.6
23.8
21.8
25.4
vs Similar (34)
10.1
9.9
10.2
3.6
3.7
3.4
23.4
23.4
23.4
vs Weaker (7)
10.3
10.0
10.5
2.9
2.7
3.0
22.0
17.0
25.8
% over line
54%
58%
50%
44%
54%
35%
66%
58%
73%
% under line
46%
42%
50%
56%
46%
65%
34%
42%
27%
This opponent (Port Vale) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Oldham
10.9
Sutton
10.8
Forest Green
10.5
Exeter
10.4
Rochdale
10.1
Tranmere
10.0
Carlisle
9.9
Swindon
9.8
Scunthorpe
9.8
Colchester
9.7
Crawley Town
9.6
Stevenage
9.6
Bristol Rvs
9.5
Barrow
9.5
Leyton Orient
9.4
Bradford
9.3
Harrogate
9.2
Mansfield
9.1
Walsall
9.0
Port Vale
9.0
Newport County
8.9
Northampton
8.8
Hartlepool
8.8
Salford
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bristol Rvs
4.0
Barrow
4.0
Salford
3.7
Sutton
3.6
Leyton Orient
3.5
Northampton
3.5
Forest Green
3.4
Mansfield
3.4
Colchester
3.3
Crawley Town
3.3
Tranmere
3.3
Swindon
3.3
Port Vale
3.3
Oldham
3.2
Carlisle
3.2
Bradford
3.1
Scunthorpe
3.1
Walsall
3.1
Newport County
3.1
Stevenage
3.0
Hartlepool
3.0
Harrogate
2.9
Exeter
2.7
Rochdale
2.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Bristol Rvs
26.4
Crawley Town
25.9
Mansfield
25.4
Walsall
25.2
Northampton
25.0
Carlisle
24.8
Tranmere
24.3
Harrogate
24.2
Port Vale
24.1
Barrow
24.1
Stevenage
23.9
Bradford
23.7
Scunthorpe
23.5
Salford
23.5
Forest Green
23.4
Swindon
23.3
Leyton Orient
23.2
Colchester
22.8
Hartlepool
22.7
Newport County
22.1
Sutton
22.0
Oldham
21.7
Exeter
21.3
Rochdale
20.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
70.1%
Under 9.5
29.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
40.3%
Under 3.5
59.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
32.2%
Under 21.5
67.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Port Vale
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.43
0.71
0.43
0.88
0.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.75
0.55
0.67
0.56
0.82
0.55
vs Weaker (10)
0.90
0.20
0.80
0.20
1.00
0.20
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Swindon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Swindon
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.80
0.29
0.71
0.31
0.88
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.19
0.90
0.11
0.78
0.25
1.00
vs Weaker (7)
0.57
0.57
0.67
0.67
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Port Vale) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Port Vale over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Port Vale over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Port Vale over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swindon over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swindon over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swindon over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Port Vale
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.53
0.71
0.43
0.75
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.80
0.55
0.78
0.44
0.82
0.64
vs Weaker (10)
0.60
0.50
0.60
0.40
0.60
0.60
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Swindon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Swindon
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.83
1.07
0.64
1.38
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
1.00
1.50
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.14
0.86
0.89
0.44
1.33
1.17
vs Weaker (7)
1.43
0.71
1.33
1.00
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Port Vale) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Port Vale over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Port Vale over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Port Vale over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swindon over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swindon over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Swindon over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 9.5 corners
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Port Vale · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
C. Humphreys0%
B. Waine0%
Liam Gordon0%
Onel Hernández0%
Kyle Dempsey0%
L. Montsma0%
Connor Hall0%
Tyreece Simpson0%
Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel0%
B. Garrity0%
J. Headley0%
J. Smith0%
G. Hall0%
R. Walters0%
Oliver Lynch0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
B. Garrity33%
C. Humphreys25%
Kyle Dempsey25%
Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel25%
B. Waine0%
Liam Gordon0%
Onel Hernández0%
L. Montsma0%
Connor Hall0%
Tyreece Simpson0%
J. Headley0%
J. Smith0%
G. Hall0%
R. Walters0%
Oliver Lynch0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel25%
C. Humphreys0%
B. Waine0%
Liam Gordon0%
Onel Hernández0%
Kyle Dempsey0%
L. Montsma0%
Connor Hall0%
Tyreece Simpson0%
B. Garrity0%
J. Headley0%
J. Smith0%
G. Hall0%
R. Walters0%
Oliver Lynch0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
C. Humphreys0%
B. Waine0%
Liam Gordon0%
Onel Hernández0%
Kyle Dempsey0%
L. Montsma0%
Connor Hall0%
Tyreece Simpson0%
Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel0%
B. Garrity0%
J. Headley0%
J. Smith0%
G. Hall0%
R. Walters0%
Oliver Lynch0%
Swindon · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
A. Drinan50%
Ollie Clarke33%
B. Middlemas25%
O. Palmer0%
Mitchell Clark0%
C. Ripley0%
Ryan Tafazolli0%
Tom Nichols0%
Stephan Negru0%
Anthony Munda0%
K. Majekodunmi0%
Louis Millard0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ollie Clarke33%
K. Majekodunmi33%
C. Ripley25%
O. Palmer0%
Mitchell Clark0%
Ryan Tafazolli0%
Tom Nichols0%
A. Drinan0%
Stephan Negru0%
B. Middlemas0%
Anthony Munda0%
Louis Millard0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Anthony Munda67%
Stephan Negru25%
O. Palmer0%
Mitchell Clark0%
C. Ripley0%
Ryan Tafazolli0%
Ollie Clarke0%
Tom Nichols0%
A. Drinan0%
B. Middlemas0%
K. Majekodunmi0%
Louis Millard0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
A. Drinan50%
O. Palmer25%
Mitchell Clark0%
C. Ripley0%
Ryan Tafazolli0%
Ollie Clarke0%
Tom Nichols0%
Stephan Negru0%
B. Middlemas0%
Anthony Munda0%
K. Majekodunmi0%
Louis Millard0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LO (23)
€10m
SAL (26)
€8m
BRA (21)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
PV (23)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
BR (24)
€5m
SWI (22)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
OLD (21)
€3m
ROC (10)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
BAR (11)
€2m
HAR (14)
€1m
FG (4)
€1m
HAR (6)
€1m
SCU (2)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
Port Vale's squad is €3m more valuable than Swindon's (€7m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LO (6)
€4m
BRA (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
STE (6)
€2m
BR (10)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (3)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
HAR (4)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
SCU (1)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
Port Vale and Swindon have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MAN (5)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
TRA (6)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
BAR (5)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
HAR (4)
€1m
BR (4)
€0m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
SCU (0)
€0m
FG (0)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
Port Vale's midfield is €1m more valuable than Swindon's (€2m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (11)
€3m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
MAN (12)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
BAR (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
SCU (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
Port Vale's defence is €2m more valuable than Swindon's (€3m vs €1m).
England: League Two 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
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Forest Green
Exeter
Bristol Rvs
Northampton
Mansfield
Sutton
Tranmere
Salford
Newport County
Crawley Town
Leyton Orient
Bradford
Colchester
Walsall
Hartlepool
Rochdale
Harrogate
Carlisle
Stevenage
Barrow
Oldham
Scunthorpe