Port Vale's recent form has been concerning, having suffered two consecutive defeats, including a 0-2 loss to Oldham. However, they have a strong home record against similar strength opponents, averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. Tranmere, on the other hand, has shown resilience away from home, scoring 1.33 goals and conceding 1.5 against similar opponents. The model predicts a low-scoring match, with an expected total of 2.1 goals and a most likely score of 1-1, occurring 14.3% of the time. The most likely total number of goals is 2.
The model's selection is a home win, with a 45% probability, making it the most likely result. The draw is 31% probable, while the away win is 24% likely. The home win percentage is 45%, the draw percentage is 31%, and the away win percentage is 24%. The model also suggests an Under 3.5 goals selection, with an 83.1% probability.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Tranmere, failed to deliver as the match ended in a 1-1 draw, leaving the model’s call incorrect. Port Vale’s recent form, a draw in their last game, and Tranmere’s own draw in their previous outing set the stage for a tightly contested fixture. The model had assigned a 36 % probability to an away win, but the result was a stalemate. Every suggested pick was settled: Under 7.5 hit at 99.8 %, Under 6.5 hit at 99.4 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 99.0 %, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 98.8 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 98.0 %, Under 5.5 hit at 97.8 %, Home under 3.5 goals hit at 95.9 %, and Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 95.8 %. The final score of 1-1 matched the most likely outcome, confirming the model’s total-goals prediction.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Port Vale win✗ Miss
33.8%
Avg Implied 52.5% · @ 1.76
Edge
-18.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
1.82
Dafabet
1.81
BetVictor
1.80
Superbet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Draw✓ Hit
30.2%
Avg Implied 26.9% · @ 3.45
Edge
+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.60
Pinnacle
3.55
BetVictor
3.50
Betfair
3.50
10Bet
3.50
Tranmere win✗ Miss
36.1%
Avg Implied 20.6% · @ 4.50
Edge
+15.5%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
5.00
10Bet
4.85
Betano
4.70
Dafabet
4.60
Pinnacle
4.54
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Port Vale
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.43
0.88
0.81
0.79
2.14
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
1.67
0.75
0.25
0.60
2.80
vs Similar (21)
0.90
1.33
0.92
1.00
0.89
1.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Tranmere) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tranmere
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.80
0.81
1.75
1.07
1.86
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
3.00
-
-
0.33
3.00
vs Similar (26)
0.96
1.65
0.73
1.73
1.27
1.55
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Port Vale) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.8%
@ 1.34+1.3%
Under 1.5
29.2%
@ 3.04-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
Betano
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
Superbet
1.34
Under
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.25
Pinnacle
3.16
10Bet
3.10
Superbet
3.10
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
43.4%
@ 2.08-1.8%
Under 2.5
56.6%
@ 1.71+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.13
Betfair
2.10
Bet365
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.08
Under
Pinnacle
1.74
Betfair
1.73
10Bet
1.73
Betano
1.72
Marathonbet
1.71
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.4%
@ 3.67-2.8%
Under 3.5
77.6%
@ 1.24+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.83
Betfair
3.80
BetVictor
3.80
888Sport
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Under
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.26
Pinnacle
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.4%
@ 1.93+2.4%
No
49.6%
@ 1.78-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
2.00
Superbet
1.95
BetVictor
1.93
Betano
1.93
1xBet
1.92
No
Betfair
1.87
888Sport
1.80
William Hil
1.80
1xBet
1.79
Betano
1.78
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
14.3%@ 6.28+7.3%
0-0
10.2%@ 8.19+4.9%
0-1
9.7%@ 10.61+5.5%
1-0
9.3%@ 5.74+1.6%
1-2
8.0%@ 14.14+4.9%
2-1
7.7%@ 7.74+2.0%
0-2
6.8%@ 22.70+4.8%
2-0
6.3%@ 7.29+0.2%
Port Vale goals ↓
Tranmere goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
9.7%
6.8%
2.8%
0.9%
1
9.3%
14%
8.0%
3.3%
1.0%
2
6.3%
7.7%
4.7%
1.9%
0.6%
3
2.5%
3.0%
1.9%
0.8%
0.2%
4
0.7%
0.9%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Port Vale goals (down), columns = Tranmere goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Salford
1.71
Grimsby
1.69
Chesterfield
1.67
Barnet
1.65
Swindon
1.63
Rotherham
1.63
Port Vale
1.62
Exeter
1.58
Oldham
1.48
Crewe
1.46
Colchester
1.43
Walsall
1.41
Northampton
1.40
Bristol Rvs
1.35
Fleetwood Town
1.33
Accrington
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Cheltenham
1.13
Shrewsbury
1.07
Newport County
0.93
Tranmere
0.89
Rochdale
0.88
Crawley Town
0.87
York
0.66
Port Vale is 0.73 points better than Tranmere in terms of average points per game (1.62 vs 0.89).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Grimsby
1.60
Rotherham
1.52
Barnet
1.52
Swindon
1.52
Port Vale
1.52
Chesterfield
1.48
Exeter
1.48
Crewe
1.39
Colchester
1.35
Northampton
1.31
Salford
1.31
Oldham
1.30
Fleetwood Town
1.24
Bristol Rvs
1.22
Walsall
1.22
Tranmere
1.17
Cheltenham
1.15
Gillingham
1.15
Newport County
1.04
Accrington
1.02
Crawley Town
0.96
Shrewsbury
0.91
Rochdale
0.82
York
0.61
Port Vale is 0.34 goals better than Tranmere in terms of goals scored per game (1.52 vs 1.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Oldham
0.96
Colchester
1.07
Rotherham
1.09
Port Vale
1.09
Grimsby
1.10
Exeter
1.12
Barnet
1.15
Salford
1.16
Chesterfield
1.19
Walsall
1.22
Accrington
1.26
Fleetwood Town
1.26
Crewe
1.26
Northampton
1.26
Swindon
1.28
Bristol Rvs
1.41
Crawley Town
1.48
Shrewsbury
1.50
Gillingham
1.57
Newport County
1.67
Cheltenham
1.72
Tranmere
1.72
Rochdale
2.01
York
2.70
Port Vale is 0.63 goals better than Tranmere in terms of goals conceded per game (1.09 vs 1.72).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Chesterfield
58%
Barnet
56%
Crawley Town
56%
Grimsby
55%
Colchester
54%
Swindon
52%
Salford
50%
Crewe
50%
Fleetwood Town
50%
Cheltenham
49%
Tranmere
49%
Oldham
48%
Accrington
48%
Gillingham
47%
Newport County
47%
Shrewsbury
44%
Walsall
41%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Port Vale
For 5.2 · Against 6.1 · Total 11.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 1.4 · Total 2.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.3 · Against 9.8 · Total 20.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Tranmere
For 4.5 · Against 5.2 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.0 · Total 2.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 9.5 · Total 21.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Port Vale
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.8
10.0
3.4
3.5
3.3
21.4
21.9
21.0
vs Stronger (15)
11.1
10.4
12.0
2.9
3.2
2.4
20.1
22.6
17.3
vs Similar (35)
10.1
11.0
9.2
3.6
3.6
3.6
22.0
21.6
22.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
61%
60%
62%
48%
54%
42%
49%
52%
46%
% under line
39%
40%
38%
52%
46%
58%
51%
48%
54%
This opponent (Tranmere) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tranmere
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
9.6
10.6
3.8
3.9
3.6
22.6
23.2
21.8
vs Stronger (7)
9.8
10.3
9.3
3.4
3.2
3.7
20.7
22.3
19.0
vs Similar (42)
10.1
9.6
10.8
3.8
4.0
3.6
22.7
23.1
22.2
vs Weaker (1)
7.0
7.0
-
3.0
3.0
-
29.0
29.0
-
% over line
51%
42%
61%
54%
52%
57%
61%
65%
57%
% under line
49%
58%
39%
46%
48%
43%
39%
35%
43%
This opponent (Port Vale) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Crawley Town
12.1
Rochdale
11.3
Swindon
11.2
York
11.0
Port Vale
10.6
Grimsby
10.5
Walsall
10.4
Chesterfield
10.4
Exeter
10.2
Northampton
10.1
Barnet
10.1
Fleetwood Town
10.1
Tranmere
10.0
Oldham
9.9
Salford
9.8
Accrington
9.7
Cheltenham
9.7
Rotherham
9.6
Newport County
9.6
Gillingham
9.6
Bristol Rvs
9.4
Crewe
9.4
Colchester
9.3
Shrewsbury
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bristol Rvs
4.5
Shrewsbury
4.3
Crawley Town
4.3
Colchester
4.1
Chesterfield
4.1
Rotherham
4.1
Oldham
4.0
Accrington
4.0
Gillingham
3.9
York
3.9
Crewe
3.9
Newport County
3.9
Fleetwood Town
3.8
Tranmere
3.8
Grimsby
3.8
Salford
3.7
Walsall
3.7
Cheltenham
3.7
Barnet
3.6
Port Vale
3.5
Northampton
3.5
Swindon
3.4
Exeter
3.4
Rochdale
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Crewe
25.5
Crawley Town
25.4
Oldham
25.1
Colchester
24.8
Salford
24.6
Bristol Rvs
24.0
Gillingham
23.9
Barnet
23.8
Rotherham
23.7
Grimsby
23.6
Newport County
23.4
Rochdale
23.3
Fleetwood Town
23.0
Shrewsbury
22.7
Tranmere
22.6
Cheltenham
22.5
Walsall
22.4
Accrington
22.4
Chesterfield
22.1
Northampton
21.9
Exeter
21.9
Port Vale
21.5
Swindon
20.7
York
19.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
59.3%
@ 1.97+12.4%
Under 9.5
40.7%
@ 1.75-12.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.00
Betano
2.00
Unibet
1.98
1xBet
1.97
Marathonbet
1.97
Under
Pinnacle
1.78
Superbet
1.77
10Bet
1.77
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.75
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
49.2%
Under 3.5
50.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
53.6%
Under 21.5
46.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Port Vale or Draw✓ Hit
76.1%
Avg Implied 79.2% · @ 1.18
Edge
-3.1%
34%
30%
36%
covers Port Vale + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.21
BetVictor
1.20
William Hil
1.20
888Sport
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Port Vale or Tranmere✗ Miss
68.6%
Avg Implied 73.7% · @ 1.26
Edge
-5.1%
34%
30%
36%
covers Port Vale + Tranmere
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.29
William Hil
1.29
888Sport
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Draw or Tranmere✓ Hit
55.3%
Avg Implied 47.0% · @ 1.98
Edge
+8.2%
34%
30%
36%
covers Draw + Tranmere
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.10
10Bet
2.05
Bet365
2.05
William Hil
2.00
888Sport
2.00
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Port Vale over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
72.1%
@ 1.18-6.4%
Under
27.9%
@ 4.30+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
Under
Betfair
4.80
Pinnacle
4.42
10Bet
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.30
Port Vale over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
36.5%
@ 1.95-11.1%
Under
63.5%
@ 1.77+11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.04
BetVictor
2.00
Marathonbet
1.98
1xBet
1.97
888Sport
1.95
Under
Betano
1.80
Betfair
1.80
Superbet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.78
Port Vale over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
13.7%
@ 4.03-9.3%
Under
86.3%
@ 1.20+9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.35
BetVictor
4.33
1xBet
4.10
Marathonbet
4.10
Superbet
4.00
Under
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Unibet
1.21
Port Vale over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.1%
@ 9.20-6.1%
Under
95.9%
@ 1.04+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
10.00
Bet365
10.00
1xBet
9.70
Betfair
9.00
Superbet
8.90
Under
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
888Sport
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Tranmere over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
57.8%
@ 1.59-0.4%
Under
42.2%
@ 2.22+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Pinnacle
1.60
888Sport
1.60
Under
Pinnacle
2.33
Betfair
2.25
BetVictor
2.25
Superbet
2.25
1xBet
2.22
Tranmere over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
21.4%
@ 3.91-2.4%
Under
78.6%
@ 1.22+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.33
Pinnacle
4.03
10Bet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
888Sport
4.00
Under
1xBet
1.24
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.23
Superbet
1.23
888Sport
1.22
Tranmere over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
5.7%
@ 11.46-2.6%
Under
94.3%
@ 1.03+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
888Sport
13.00
Superbet
11.00
Marathonbet
10.50
1xBet
10.50
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Tranmere over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.2%
@ 37.50-98.8%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
41.00
Superbet
34.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Port Vale, so a minus line means Port Vale give that many goals of a start and Tranmere receive them. At -1, Port Vale must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Port Vale win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Port Vale)Actual: Tranmere
Port Vale -2
7.4%
@ 6.44-6.4%
Draw -2
13.6%
@ 4.93-4.4%
Tranmere +2
78.9%
@ 1.31+10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.50
Superbet
6.30
10Bet
6.25
Draw
Marathonbet
5.25
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Superbet
4.90
10Bet
4.75
Away
10Bet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Unibet
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Handicap -1 (Port Vale)Actual: Tranmere
Port Vale -1
21.1%
@ 3.09-7.9%
Draw -1
23.7%
@ 3.38-2.8%
Tranmere +1
55.3%
@ 2.01+10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
3.20
Marathonbet
3.12
Bet365
3.10
Superbet
3.10
Unibet
3.00
Draw
Bet365
3.60
Superbet
3.45
Marathonbet
3.40
Betfair
3.30
10Bet
3.30
Away
10Bet
2.05
Bet365
2.05
Unibet
2.02
Betfair
2.00
Superbet
1.97
Handicap +1 (Port Vale)Actual: Port Vale
Port Vale +1
76.1%
@ 1.18+0.8%
Draw +1
15.6%
@ 5.62-0.2%
Tranmere -1
8.3%
@ 9.94-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
Unibet
1.16
Draw
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Unibet
5.75
Superbet
5.70
10Bet
5.25
Away
Betfair
13.00
Bet365
12.00
Unibet
10.00
Superbet
9.50
10Bet
9.00
Handicap +2 (Port Vale)Actual: Port Vale
Port Vale +2
91.7%
@ 1.03+1.2%
Draw +2
6.2%
@ 13.67-0.6%
Tranmere -2
2.1%
@ 35.33-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Draw
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
14.00
Superbet
12.00
Away
Betfair
46.00
Bet365
34.00
Superbet
26.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Port Vale
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.63
0.44
0.44
0.64
0.86
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
0.89
0.75
0.25
0.60
1.40
vs Similar (21)
0.48
0.52
0.33
0.50
0.67
0.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Tranmere) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tranmere
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.77
0.31
0.94
0.29
0.57
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.33
-
-
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (26)
0.31
0.69
0.27
0.93
0.36
0.36
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Port Vale) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
70.4%
@ 1.41+4.7%
Under 0.5
29.6%
@ 2.70-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.44
BetVictor
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
Superbet
1.42
Under
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.81
William Hil
2.80
10Bet
2.80
Superbet
2.72
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
32.7%
@ 2.94+1.2%
Under 1.5
67.3%
@ 1.36-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.15
Betano
3.05
Betfair
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Marathonbet
2.95
Under
10Bet
1.40
Superbet
1.37
William Hil
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
13.1%
@ 7.81+1.2%
Under 2.5
86.9%
@ 1.05-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
BetVictor
8.50
Betfair
8.00
William Hil
8.00
1xBet
7.40
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
William Hil
1.07
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.05
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Port Vale over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
52.2%
@ 1.82+1.1%
Under
47.8%
@ 1.90-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.87
Pinnacle
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.83
Superbet
1.80
Under
10Bet
1.95
Pinnacle
1.93
Superbet
1.92
Unibet
1.91
Betano
1.87
Port Vale over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
17.2%
@ 5.11-1.0%
Under
82.8%
@ 1.13+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.45
Marathonbet
5.45
Betano
5.00
Superbet
4.90
10Bet
4.75
Under
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Port Vale over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.2%
@ 12.92-3.1%
Under
95.8%
@ 1.02+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
15.00
10Bet
13.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Tranmere over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
35.3%
@ 2.78+2.0%
Under
64.7%
@ 1.39-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.95
Betano
2.85
Superbet
2.80
Marathonbet
2.76
1xBet
2.76
Under
10Bet
1.42
Betano
1.39
Pinnacle
1.39
Marathonbet
1.38
1xBet
1.38
Tranmere over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.7%
@ 10.39-1.3%
Under
92.3%
@ 1.03+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
11.75
1xBet
11.70
Superbet
10.00
10Bet
9.50
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Tranmere over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.0%
@ 45.00-99.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
45.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Port Vale
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.80
0.44
0.38
0.14
1.29
vs Stronger (9)
0.00
0.78
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.40
vs Similar (21)
0.43
0.81
0.58
0.50
0.22
1.22
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Tranmere) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tranmere
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.03
0.50
0.81
0.79
1.29
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.67
-
-
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (26)
0.65
0.96
0.47
0.80
0.91
1.18
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Port Vale) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
77.6%
Under 0.5
22.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
46.4%
Under 1.5
53.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
18.8%
Under 2.5
81.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Port Vale over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
62.9%
Under
37.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Port Vale over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
24.1%
Under
75.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Port Vale over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
6.5%
Under
93.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tranmere over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
41.2%
Under
58.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tranmere over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
9.8%
Under
90.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tranmere over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
97.8%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
888Sport
1.02
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
95.9%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
888Sport
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
+6.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.8%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
94.3%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
93.4%
1.07
Betano
1.10
888Sport
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
10Bet
1.08
+6.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.3%
1.03
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.03
-
-
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
91.7%
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Superbet
1.03
-
-
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.9%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
William Hil
1.07
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.05
-1.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
86.3%
1.20
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
Unibet
1.21
+9.3%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
82.8%
1.13
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
78.9%
1.31
10Bet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Unibet
1.30
Betfair
1.30
+10.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
78.6%
1.22
1xBet
1.24
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.23
Superbet
1.23
888Sport
1.22
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
77.6%
1.24
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.26
Pinnacle
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
76.1%
1.18
Betano
1.21
BetVictor
1.20
William Hil
1.20
888Sport
1.20
Superbet
1.19
-3.1%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
76.1%
1.18
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
Unibet
1.16
+0.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
72.1%
1.18
Betano
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
-6.4%
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
71.2%
1.59
Betano
1.62
Unibet
1.61
Superbet
1.60
1xBet
1.58
Pinnacle
1.56
+13.1%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
70.8%
1.34
10Bet
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
Betano
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
Superbet
1.34
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.4%
1.41
Betano
1.47
Bet365
1.44
BetVictor
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
Superbet
1.42
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Port Vale
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
C. Humphreys0%
B. Waine0%
Liam Gordon0%
Onel Hernández0%
Kyle Dempsey0%
L. Montsma0%
Connor Hall0%
Tyreece Simpson0%
Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel0%
B. Garrity0%
J. Headley0%
J. Smith0%
G. Hall0%
R. Walters0%
Oliver Lynch0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
B. Garrity33%
C. Humphreys25%
Kyle Dempsey25%
Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel25%
B. Waine0%
Liam Gordon0%
Onel Hernández0%
L. Montsma0%
Connor Hall0%
Tyreece Simpson0%
J. Headley0%
J. Smith0%
G. Hall0%
R. Walters0%
Oliver Lynch0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel25%
C. Humphreys0%
B. Waine0%
Liam Gordon0%
Onel Hernández0%
Kyle Dempsey0%
L. Montsma0%
Connor Hall0%
Tyreece Simpson0%
B. Garrity0%
J. Headley0%
J. Smith0%
G. Hall0%
R. Walters0%
Oliver Lynch0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
C. Humphreys0%
B. Waine0%
Liam Gordon0%
Onel Hernández0%
Kyle Dempsey0%
L. Montsma0%
Connor Hall0%
Tyreece Simpson0%
Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel0%
B. Garrity0%
J. Headley0%
J. Smith0%
G. Hall0%
R. Walters0%
Oliver Lynch0%
Tranmere
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Tom Ince50%
Z. Okoro50%
Jordan Davies33%
Charlie Whitaker33%
J. Turnbull0%
N. Smith0%
Tom Conlon0%
W. Vaulks0%
S. Finley0%
Joe Ironside0%
J. Senior0%
Bobby Faulkner0%
J. Slater0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jordan Davies67%
Charlie Whitaker33%
N. Smith25%
Tom Ince25%
S. Finley25%
Joe Ironside25%
J. Senior25%
Bobby Faulkner25%
J. Slater25%
J. Turnbull0%
Tom Conlon0%
W. Vaulks0%
Z. Okoro0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
J. Turnbull25%
Tom Conlon25%
J. Senior25%
J. Slater25%
N. Smith0%
Tom Ince0%
W. Vaulks0%
S. Finley0%
Jordan Davies0%
Joe Ironside0%
Charlie Whitaker0%
Bobby Faulkner0%
Z. Okoro0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
W. Vaulks33%
Jordan Davies33%
Charlie Whitaker33%
Tom Ince25%
Z. Okoro25%
J. Turnbull0%
N. Smith0%
Tom Conlon0%
S. Finley0%
Joe Ironside0%
J. Senior0%
Bobby Faulkner0%
J. Slater0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAL (26)
€8m
PV (23)
€7m
CHE (24)
€6m
BR (24)
€5m
ROT (19)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
SHR (17)
€3m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
OLD (21)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
ROC (10)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
YOR (8)
€1m
Port Vale's squad is €3m more valuable than Tranmere's (€7m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€2m
ROT (6)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
SHR (3)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
Port Vale and Tranmere have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
ROT (5)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
BR (4)
€0m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
Port Vale and Tranmere have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
BAR (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
Port Vale's defence is €2m more valuable than Tranmere's (€3m vs €1m).
England: League Two 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Bristol Rvs
Barnet
Walsall
Crewe
Oldham
York
Cheltenham
Swindon
Colchester
Grimsby
Fleetwood Town
Rotherham
Newport County
Exeter
Chesterfield
Crawley Town
Northampton
Rochdale
Salford
Gillingham
Shrewsbury
Accrington