This opponent (Aves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
A
Aves
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.70
1.19
1.56
0.93
1.86
vs Stronger (20)
0.90
1.65
0.90
1.60
0.90
1.70
vs Similar (10)
1.40
1.80
1.67
1.50
1.00
2.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Portimonense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.2%
Under 1.5
18.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
57.8%
Under 2.5
42.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
35.4%
Under 3.5
64.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
60.7%
No
39.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
12.1%
2-1
9.3%
1-0
7.3%
1-2
7.2%
2-0
7.1%
2-2
6.1%
0-0
6.1%
0-1
5.4%
Portimonense goals ↓
Aves goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.1%
5.4%
4.3%
1.9%
0.6%
1
7.3%
12%
7.2%
3.1%
1.0%
2
7.1%
9.3%
6.1%
2.7%
0.9%
3
4.0%
5.3%
3.4%
1.5%
0.5%
4
1.7%
2.2%
1.5%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Portimonense goals (down), columns = Aves goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Benfica
2.56
FC Porto
2.50
Sporting CP
2.18
SC Braga
1.97
Moreirense
1.53
Guimaraes
1.53
Rio Ave
1.32
Boavista
1.29
Belenenses
1.26
Santa Clara
1.24
Maritimo
1.15
Portimonense
1.15
Aves
1.06
Setubal
1.06
Tondela
1.03
Chaves
0.94
Nacional
0.82
Feirense
0.59
Portimonense is 0.09 points better than Aves in terms of average points per game (1.15 vs 1.06).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Benfica
3.03
FC Porto
2.18
Sporting CP
2.12
SC Braga
1.65
Rio Ave
1.47
Guimaraes
1.35
Portimonense
1.29
Santa Clara
1.26
Belenenses
1.24
Tondela
1.18
Moreirense
1.15
Aves
1.03
Chaves
1.00
Boavista
1.00
Nacional
0.97
Setubal
0.82
Feirense
0.79
Maritimo
0.76
Portimonense is 0.26 goals better than Aves in terms of goals scored per game (1.29 vs 1.03).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Porto
0.59
Benfica
0.91
Sporting CP
0.97
Guimaraes
1.00
SC Braga
1.09
Setubal
1.15
Boavista
1.18
Maritimo
1.29
Moreirense
1.29
Santa Clara
1.32
Aves
1.44
Belenenses
1.50
Rio Ave
1.53
Tondela
1.59
Chaves
1.68
Portimonense
1.74
Feirense
1.88
Nacional
2.15
Portimonense is 0.29 goals worse than Aves in terms of goals conceded per game (1.74 vs 1.44).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Portimonense
For 4.4 · Against 4.9 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.2 · Against 2.9 · Total 6.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.6 · Against 14.9 · Total 31.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
A
Aves
For 6.2 · Against 4.8 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 2.3 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 18.7 · Against 15.7 · Total 34.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Portimonense
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
10.2
9.2
5.0
5.3
4.8
31.6
33.6
29.6
vs Stronger (19)
9.1
9.2
8.9
4.7
4.8
4.6
31.7
35.1
25.9
vs Similar (31)
10.1
11.2
9.4
5.2
5.8
4.8
31.5
32.2
31.1
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
52%
60%
44%
70%
80%
60%
94%
100%
88%
% under line
48%
40%
56%
30%
20%
40%
6%
0%
12%
This opponent (Aves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
A
Aves
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.0
11.2
10.8
4.8
5.3
4.2
32.1
33.1
31.0
vs Stronger (32)
10.9
11.1
10.7
4.5
5.4
3.6
32.1
32.5
31.6
vs Similar (18)
11.1
11.3
10.8
5.2
5.1
5.2
32.1
34.2
29.9
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
64%
62%
67%
70%
77%
62%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
36%
38%
33%
30%
23%
38%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Portimonense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Santa Clara
11.5
Sporting CP
11.2
Tondela
11.1
Boavista
11.1
Chaves
11.1
Aves
11.0
Benfica
11.0
Guimaraes
10.5
Feirense
10.4
Rio Ave
10.3
SC Braga
10.2
FC Porto
10.2
Moreirense
10.2
Portimonense
9.7
Belenenses
9.5
Maritimo
9.5
Setubal
9.4
Nacional
9.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Rio Ave
6.1
Boavista
5.9
Sporting CP
5.8
Feirense
5.7
Setubal
5.6
Moreirense
5.1
Santa Clara
5.1
Tondela
5.1
Portimonense
5.0
Maritimo
5.0
Benfica
5.0
Nacional
4.8
FC Porto
4.8
Aves
4.8
Chaves
4.7
Belenenses
4.6
SC Braga
4.5
Guimaraes
4.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Setubal
37.7
Feirense
36.5
Rio Ave
34.9
Boavista
34.2
Tondela
33.1
FC Porto
32.5
Guimaraes
32.5
Nacional
32.2
Maritimo
32.2
Moreirense
32.1
Aves
32.1
Santa Clara
31.7
SC Braga
31.7
Portimonense
31.6
Sporting CP
31.4
Chaves
31.2
Belenenses
31.0
Benfica
30.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
62.9%
Under 9.5
37.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
75.9%
Under 3.5
24.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
98.3%
Under 21.5
1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Portimonense
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.67
0.87
0.53
0.60
0.80
vs Stronger (11)
0.91
0.55
1.00
0.43
0.75
0.75
vs Similar (19)
0.63
0.74
0.75
0.62
0.55
0.82
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Aves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
A
Aves
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.63
0.75
0.62
0.50
0.64
vs Stronger (20)
0.45
0.75
0.50
0.90
0.40
0.60
vs Similar (10)
1.00
0.40
1.17
0.17
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Portimonense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Portimonense over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portimonense over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portimonense over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aves over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aves over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aves over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Portimonense
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.97
0.93
0.93
0.33
1.00
vs Stronger (11)
0.55
1.27
0.86
1.00
0.00
1.75
vs Similar (19)
0.68
0.79
1.00
0.88
0.45
0.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Aves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
A
Aves
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
1.07
0.44
0.94
0.43
1.21
vs Stronger (20)
0.45
0.90
0.40
0.70
0.50
1.10
vs Similar (10)
0.40
1.40
0.50
1.33
0.25
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Portimonense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Portimonense over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portimonense over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portimonense over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aves over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aves over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aves over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Portimonense · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Sarará50%
Tamblé Monteiro40%
Alexandre Fernando33%
Mesaque Dju25%
Welat Cagro20%
João Reis14%
Tiago Ferreira14%
Samuel Lobato14%
Sébastien Cibois0%
Welinton Junior0%
Heitor0%
Dauda Mohammed0%
Douglas Grolli0%
Xavier0%
Zé Gabriel0%
Maycon Cleiton0%
Thauan Lara0%
Marlon Junior0%
Francisco Canário0%
Danio Djassi0%
Samy0%
Jarleysom Amurim0%
Edney Henrique0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Douglas Grolli50%
Sarará50%
Sébastien Cibois40%
Tamblé Monteiro40%
Xavier33%
Alexandre Fernando33%
Samuel Lobato29%
Mesaque Dju25%
Dauda Mohammed20%
Welat Cagro20%
Heitor17%
Samy17%
Tiago Ferreira14%
Marlon Junior14%
Welinton Junior0%
João Reis0%
Zé Gabriel0%
Maycon Cleiton0%
Thauan Lara0%
Francisco Canário0%
Danio Djassi0%
Jarleysom Amurim0%
Edney Henrique0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Thauan Lara67%
Douglas Grolli25%
Tiago Ferreira14%
Samuel Lobato14%
Sébastien Cibois0%
Welinton Junior0%
Heitor0%
Dauda Mohammed0%
João Reis0%
Welat Cagro0%
Xavier0%
Mesaque Dju0%
Zé Gabriel0%
Maycon Cleiton0%
Tamblé Monteiro0%
Sarará0%
Marlon Junior0%
Francisco Canário0%
Alexandre Fernando0%
Danio Djassi0%
Samy0%
Jarleysom Amurim0%
Edney Henrique0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tamblé Monteiro40%
Tiago Ferreira29%
Mesaque Dju25%
Dauda Mohammed20%
Samy17%
João Reis14%
Sébastien Cibois0%
Welinton Junior0%
Heitor0%
Douglas Grolli0%
Welat Cagro0%
Xavier0%
Zé Gabriel0%
Maycon Cleiton0%
Sarará0%
Thauan Lara0%
Marlon Junior0%
Samuel Lobato0%
Francisco Canário0%
Alexandre Fernando0%
Danio Djassi0%
Jarleysom Amurim0%
Edney Henrique0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Portugal: Primeira Liga 2018/19 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Primeira Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Portimonense
Benfica
FC Porto
Sporting CP
SC Braga
Guimaraes
Moreirense
Rio Ave
Boavista
Belenenses
Santa Clara
Maritimo
Tondela
Chaves
Nacional
Feirense