Portsmouth hosts QPR in the England Championship on August 15. Notably, the home side is coming off a defeat, having lost 1-3 to QPR in their last encounter, while QPR is coming off a win, having beaten Portsmouth 3-1 in their previous match. The model's pick is a home win, with a 43% probability, ahead of a 32% draw chance and a 25% away win probability. The expected total goals is 2.1, with 2 goals being the most likely total. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 14.4% probability.
Portsmouth has been scoring 1.08 goals and conceding 1 goal on average at home against similar opponents, while QPR has been scoring 0.85 goals and conceding 1.31 goals on average away against similar opponents. The model selects Under 3.5 with an 83.1% probability, offering a 9% edge. The home win percentage is 43%, the draw percentage is 32%, and the away win percentage is 25%. The model also suggests Under 3.5 (83.1%), Home win (43%), and Away win (25%).
Results analysis
Portsmouth's recent woes continued as they fell to a 1-3 defeat against QPR, extending their losing streak. The away win is a major upset given Portsmouth's pre-match favourite status, with a 43% chance of taking home the win. However, the model's selection, Home win, was incorrect. The model's call was wrong as QPR secured the away win. Meanwhile, the model's selection of Under 3.5 goals narrowly missed, with an 83.1% probability of occurring. The most likely score was 1-1, but the actual result was a 1-3 victory for QPR.
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šÆ 1. Model Analysis
Portsmouth winā Miss
43.4%
Avg Implied 40.1% · @ 2.33
Edge
+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.40
Betfair
2.40
Dafabet
2.40
BetVictor
2.38
Bet365
2.38
Drawā Miss
31.6%
Avg Implied 28.9% · @ 3.24
Edge
+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.35
10Bet
3.35
Pinnacle
3.34
Unibet
3.30
Betfair
3.30
QPR winā Hit
25.0%
Avg Implied 31.0% · @ 3.02
Edge
-6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.10
Pinnacle
3.10
Bet365
3.10
Betano
3.10
1xBet
3.06
ā½ 2. Goal Analysis
Portsmouth
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.53
1.21
1.14
1.19
1.88
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
2.80
1.50
2.00
1.00
3.33
vs Similar (25)
1.20
1.28
1.17
1.00
1.23
1.54
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (QPR) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
QPR
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.57
1.88
1.62
0.79
1.50
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
2.50
1.33
2.67
0.67
2.33
vs Similar (24)
1.46
1.33
2.00
1.38
0.82
1.27
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Portsmouth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
64.3%
@ 1.32-6.5%
Under 1.5
35.7%
@ 3.20+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
BetVictor
1.36
Betfair
1.33
888Sport
1.33
Pinnacle
1.31
Under
Pinnacle
3.54
Bet365
3.50
Unibet
3.45
10Bet
3.35
Betfair
3.25
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
36.1%
@ 2.04-10.3%
Under 2.5
63.9%
@ 1.76+10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.12
Marathonbet
2.11
1xBet
2.11
Betfair
2.10
888Sport
2.05
Under
Pinnacle
1.86
SBO
1.83
10Bet
1.83
Unibet
1.81
Bet365
1.80
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
16.9%
@ 3.56-9.4%
Under 3.5
83.1%
@ 1.27+9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.80
Betano
3.70
888Sport
3.70
1xBet
3.62
Marathonbet
3.62
Under
Bet365
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
10Bet
1.30
Unibet
1.29
Betano
1.28
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
43.3%
@ 1.77-9.3%
No
56.7%
@ 1.96+9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Marathonbet
1.82
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.82
Betfair
1.80
BetVictor
1.80
No
10Bet
2.05
Unibet
2.02
Betfair
2.00
888Sport
2.00
William Hil
2.00
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%@ 5.92+6.8%
1-0
13.4%@ 7.14+7.1%
0-0
13.1%@ 8.87+8.0%
2-0
9.2%@ 10.67+5.0%
0-1
9.2%@ 8.54+3.9%
2-1
8.2%@ 8.57+2.9%
1-2
5.8%@ 10.04+1.3%
0-2
4.6%@ 14.19+1.5%
Portsmouth goals ↓
QPR goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
9.2%
4.6%
1.4%
0.3%
1
13%
14%
5.8%
1.7%
0.4%
2
9.2%
8.2%
3.6%
1.1%
0.2%
3
3.8%
3.4%
1.5%
0.4%
0.1%
4
1.2%
1.1%
0.5%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Portsmouth goals (down), columns = QPR goals (across).
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šŖ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
š Total PPG
Points / game
West Ham
1.92
Wolves
1.90
Millwall
1.75
Burnley
1.72
Southampton
1.71
Middlesbrough
1.67
Wrexham
1.54
Derby
1.50
Norwich
1.41
Birmingham
1.39
Swansea
1.39
Bristol City
1.35
Sheffield United
1.30
Preston
1.30
Cardiff
1.30
QPR
1.26
Watford
1.24
Stoke
1.20
Portsmouth
1.20
West Brom
1.15
Charlton
1.15
Blackburn
1.13
Bolton
1.00
Lincoln
0.94
Portsmouth is 0.07 points worse than QPR in terms of average points per game (1.20 vs 1.26).
āļø Attack
Goals scored / game
West Ham
1.82
Wolves
1.81
Southampton
1.73
Burnley
1.63
Wrexham
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.49
Derby
1.46
Sheffield United
1.43
Norwich
1.37
Millwall
1.33
QPR
1.33
Bristol City
1.28
Birmingham
1.24
Swansea
1.24
Cardiff
1.23
Preston
1.20
Watford
1.15
Stoke
1.11
Portsmouth
1.07
West Brom
1.04
Charlton
0.96
Bolton
0.95
Blackburn
0.91
Lincoln
0.89
Portsmouth is 0.26 goals worse than QPR in terms of goals scored per game (1.07 vs 1.33).
š”ļø Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
West Ham
0.92
Wolves
0.93
Middlesbrough
1.00
Burnley
1.03
Millwall
1.06
Southampton
1.19
Birmingham
1.22
Blackburn
1.22
Norwich
1.22
Stoke
1.22
West Brom
1.26
Charlton
1.26
Bristol City
1.28
Swansea
1.28
Derby
1.28
Preston
1.35
Cardiff
1.36
Portsmouth
1.39
Wrexham
1.41
Watford
1.41
Sheffield United
1.43
QPR
1.59
Bolton
1.77
Lincoln
1.87
Portsmouth is 0.20 goals better than QPR in terms of goals conceded per game (1.39 vs 1.59).
ā±ļø Possession
Avg possession %
Middlesbrough
59%
Southampton
56%
Swansea
55%
Birmingham
54%
Norwich
54%
Sheffield United
52%
Stoke
52%
West Brom
52%
Watford
51%
Portsmouth
50%
Bristol City
49%
Wrexham
48%
Blackburn
48%
Millwall
48%
QPR
46%
Preston
46%
Derby
44%
Charlton
42%
Portsmouth is 4.5 percentage points better than QPR in terms of average possession (50% vs 46%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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š„ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
āļø 7. Handicap
ā±ļø 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Portsmouth
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.67
0.57
0.50
0.38
0.81
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
1.40
1.50
1.00
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (25)
0.40
0.52
0.42
0.42
0.38
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (QPR) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
QPR
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.73
0.88
0.50
0.21
1.00
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
1.00
0.33
0.33
0.00
1.67
vs Similar (24)
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.54
0.27
0.82
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Portsmouth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
š„ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Portsmouth over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portsmouth over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portsmouth over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
QPR over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
QPR over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
QPR over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ā±ļø 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Portsmouth
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.87
0.64
0.64
0.81
1.06
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.40
0.00
1.00
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (25)
0.80
0.76
0.75
0.58
0.85
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (QPR) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
QPR
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.83
1.00
1.12
0.57
0.50
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
1.50
1.00
2.33
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (24)
0.79
0.67
1.00
0.85
0.55
0.45
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Portsmouth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
š„ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Portsmouth over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portsmouth over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Portsmouth over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
QPR over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
QPR over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
QPR over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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š„ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
83.1%
1.27
Bet365
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
10Bet
1.30
Unibet
1.29
Betano
1.28
+9.4%
ā Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Hit
Under 5.5 cards
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Hit
Over 8.5 corners
75.7%
1.33
Unibet
1.37
Betfair
1.36
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.28
+6.5%
ā Hit
Over 2.5 cards
75.2%
1.34
Unibet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.30
-
-
-
+6.4%
ā Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
š½ 13. Player market rates
Portsmouth
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
A. Segecic40%
Ryan Kavuma-McQueen25%
Ebou Adams20%
Terry Devlin20%
M. MilovanoviÄ20%
N. Schmid0%
M. Pack0%
Conor Shaughnessy0%
R. Shein0%
Odin Bailey0%
Colby Bishop0%
Z. Swanson0%
A. Kamara0%
Benjamin Arthur0%
Luke Brooke-Smith0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ebou Adams20%
R. Shein20%
Terry Devlin20%
A. Segecic20%
N. Schmid0%
M. Pack0%
Conor Shaughnessy0%
Odin Bailey0%
Colby Bishop0%
Z. Swanson0%
A. Kamara0%
M. MilovanoviÄ0%
Benjamin Arthur0%
Luke Brooke-Smith0%
Ryan Kavuma-McQueen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
A. Kamara25%
Ebou Adams20%
N. Schmid0%
M. Pack0%
Conor Shaughnessy0%
R. Shein0%
Odin Bailey0%
Colby Bishop0%
Terry Devlin0%
Z. Swanson0%
A. Segecic0%
M. MilovanoviÄ0%
Benjamin Arthur0%
Luke Brooke-Smith0%
Ryan Kavuma-McQueen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
A. Segecic80%
A. Kamara25%
Colby Bishop20%
N. Schmid0%
Ebou Adams0%
M. Pack0%
Conor Shaughnessy0%
R. Shein0%
Odin Bailey0%
Terry Devlin0%
Z. Swanson0%
M. MilovanoviÄ0%
Benjamin Arthur0%
Luke Brooke-Smith0%
Ryan Kavuma-McQueen0%
QPR
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Paul Smyth25%
Koki Saito25%
Ilias Chair20%
Rumarn Burrell20%
Jimmy Dunne20%
Glen Kamara0%
Nicolas Madsen0%
Jake Clarke-Salter0%
Kwame Poku0%
Tariq Lamptey0%
Ronnie Edwards0%
Dennis Cirkin0%
Harvey Vale0%
Amadou Salif Mbengue0%
Jonathan Varane0%
Alfie Lloyd0%
Pierce Charles0%
Kealey Adamson0%
Richard Kone0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jake Clarke-Salter50%
Ronnie Edwards40%
Glen Kamara0%
Nicolas Madsen0%
Ilias Chair0%
Rumarn Burrell0%
Jimmy Dunne0%
Paul Smyth0%
Koki Saito0%
Kwame Poku0%
Tariq Lamptey0%
Dennis Cirkin0%
Harvey Vale0%
Amadou Salif Mbengue0%
Jonathan Varane0%
Alfie Lloyd0%
Pierce Charles0%
Kealey Adamson0%
Richard Kone0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tariq Lamptey33%
Harvey Vale25%
Ilias Chair20%
Rumarn Burrell20%
Ronnie Edwards20%
Amadou Salif Mbengue20%
Glen Kamara0%
Nicolas Madsen0%
Jimmy Dunne0%
Paul Smyth0%
Koki Saito0%
Jake Clarke-Salter0%
Kwame Poku0%
Dennis Cirkin0%
Jonathan Varane0%
Alfie Lloyd0%
Pierce Charles0%
Kealey Adamson0%
Richard Kone0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Harvey Vale50%
Richard Kone33%
Kwame Poku25%
Alfie Lloyd25%
Ilias Chair20%
Rumarn Burrell20%
Glen Kamara0%
Nicolas Madsen0%
Jimmy Dunne0%
Paul Smyth0%
Koki Saito0%
Jake Clarke-Salter0%
Tariq Lamptey0%
Ronnie Edwards0%
Dennis Cirkin0%
Amadou Salif Mbengue0%
Jonathan Varane0%
Pierce Charles0%
Kealey Adamson0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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š° 14. Squad value
š° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
SOU (30)
€205m
MID (29)
€142m
BUR (28)
€115m
SHU (27)
€110m
NOR (34)
€107m
BIR (26)
€93m
SWA (27)
€91m
WAT (22)
€88m
MIL (29)
€85m
STK (25)
€79m
WRE (32)
€77m
QPR (28)
€71m
BRC (25)
€66m
DER (25)
€57m
WBA (22)
€52m
PRE (20)
€43m
BLB (27)
€36m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
CAR (25)
€29m
BOL (22)
€17m
LIN (24)
€12m
Portsmouth's squad is €39m less valuable than QPR's (€32m vs €71m).
āļø Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
MID (12)
€74m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
SWA (13)
€56m
NOR (10)
€46m
BIR (9)
€46m
STK (8)
€35m
MIL (10)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
SHU (9)
€29m
BRC (8)
€29m
WAT (6)
€28m
DER (8)
€25m
CHA (13)
€18m
PRE (6)
€17m
CAR (12)
€15m
BLB (8)
€15m
WRE (9)
€15m
WBA (7)
€15m
POR (12)
€13m
BOL (6)
€4m
LIN (7)
€3m
Portsmouth's attack is €16m less valuable than QPR's (€13m vs €29m).
š§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WOL (6)
€79m
SOU (5)
€53m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
SHU (5)
€32m
NOR (11)
€31m
MIL (8)
€29m
MID (5)
€27m
WRE (9)
€23m
WBA (6)
€22m
BRC (6)
€19m
QPR (5)
€15m
DER (6)
€14m
BIR (5)
€12m
STK (6)
€11m
SWA (4)
€9m
BUR (3)
€8m
BLB (7)
€7m
POR (5)
€5m
BOL (4)
€4m
CAR (3)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
PRE (3)
€3m
LIN (4)
€2m
Portsmouth's midfield is €10m less valuable than QPR's (€5m vs €15m).
š”ļø Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (12)
€141m
WOL (14)
€116m
SOU (15)
€79m
SHU (13)
€49m
MID (12)
€41m
WRE (14)
€39m
BUR (11)
€37m
BIR (12)
€35m
STK (11)
€32m
NOR (13)
€29m
QPR (12)
€27m
SWA (10)
€26m
MIL (11)
€25m
PRE (11)
€22m
WAT (10)
€22m
BRC (11)
€18m
DER (11)
€18m
WBA (9)
€15m
POR (13)
€14m
BLB (12)
€14m
CHA (13)
€10m
CAR (10)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
LIN (13)
€6m
Portsmouth's defence is €13m less valuable than QPR's (€14m vs €27m).
England: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Championship stats & trends →
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Swansea
Charlton
Southampton
Wolves
Middlesbrough
Bristol City
West Brom
Birmingham
Sheffield United
Millwall
Wrexham
West Ham
Blackburn
Watford
Bolton
Derby
Lincoln
Cardiff
Norwich
Stoke
Burnley
Preston