Primorje are the clear favourites, with the model assigning a 67% chance of a home win, 19% for a draw and 14% for Bilje to triumph. The prediction favours a 2-1 result, the most likely scoreline with a 9.6% probability, and the match is expected to see 3.4 goals on average. Primorje’s home form shows they average 1.44 goals scored and 1.22 conceded against similar opposition, while Bilje, on the road, averages only 0.78 goals scored and concedes 2.11 against comparable teams. The venue advantage for Primorje, coupled with Bilje’s weaker away record, underpins the model’s confidence. Suggested picks include Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.9%, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.0%, Under 7.5 at 97.7%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.1%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 95.7%, Home +2 handicap at 95.1%, Under 6.5 at 94.2%, and Away under 1.5 HT goals at 92.9%. These selections reflect the expected low-scoring nature of the encounter.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Primorje win
67.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
19.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bilje win
13.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Primorje
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
2.10
1.07
1.71
0.44
2.44
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
2.92
0.40
2.60
0.43
3.14
vs Similar (17)
0.94
1.53
1.44
1.22
0.38
1.88
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Bilje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bilje
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.77
1.00
0.93
1.00
2.60
vs Stronger (9)
1.00
2.67
0.75
1.25
1.20
3.80
vs Similar (18)
0.83
1.50
0.89
0.89
0.78
2.11
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
0.67
2.00
0.50
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Primorje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
86.1%
Under 1.5
13.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
66.0%
Under 2.5
34.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
44.2%
Under 3.5
55.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
58.6%
No
41.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.6%
2-0
9.5%
1-1
8.9%
3-1
7.7%
3-0
7.6%
1-0
7.2%
2-2
4.9%
4-1
4.6%
Primorje goals ↓
Bilje goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.1%
2.6%
1.7%
0.6%
0.1%
1
7.2%
8.9%
4.1%
1.4%
0.4%
2
9.5%
9.6%
4.9%
1.6%
0.4%
3
7.6%
7.7%
3.9%
1.3%
0.3%
4
4.5%
4.6%
2.3%
0.8%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Primorje goals (down), columns = Bilje goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Triglav
2.13
Beltinci
2.00
Primorje
1.70
Tabor Sežana
1.67
Bistrica
1.50
Brežice
1.38
Dren Vrhnika
1.38
Rudar
1.23
Dravinja
1.23
Bilje
1.13
Dekani
1.10
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
0.97
Ilirija
0.90
Krško
0.87
Jesenice
0.60
Primorje is 0.56 points better than Bilje in terms of average points per game (1.70 vs 1.13).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Triglav
2.40
Beltinci
1.83
Primorje
1.73
Bistrica
1.67
Rudar
1.53
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dekani
1.33
Ilirija
1.27
Tabor Sežana
1.23
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
1.07
Dravinja
1.07
Bilje
0.90
Jesenice
0.87
Krško
0.80
Primorje is 0.83 goals better than Bilje in terms of goals scored per game (1.73 vs 0.90).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Beltinci
0.83
Triglav
0.93
Tabor Sežana
1.10
Primorje
1.15
Bistrica
1.20
Rudar
1.30
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dravinja
1.47
Dekani
1.53
Bilje
1.57
Krka
1.70
Slovan Ljubljana
1.73
Ilirija
1.73
Krško
2.07
Jesenice
2.27
Primorje is 0.42 goals better than Bilje in terms of goals conceded per game (1.15 vs 1.57).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Primorje or Draw
86.4%
Avg Implied -
67%
19%
14%
covers Primorje + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Primorje or Bilje
80.6%
Avg Implied -
67%
19%
14%
covers Primorje + Bilje
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Bilje
33.0%
Avg Implied -
67%
19%
14%
covers Draw + Bilje
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Primorje over/under 0.5
Over
90.8%
Under
9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Primorje over/under 1.5
Over
68.9%
Under
31.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Primorje over/under 2.5
Over
42.7%
Under
57.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Primorje over/under 3.5
Over
21.8%
Under
78.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilje over/under 0.5
Over
63.7%
Under
36.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilje over/under 1.5
Over
26.9%
Under
73.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilje over/under 2.5
Over
8.3%
Under
91.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilje over/under 3.5
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Primorje, so a minus line means Primorje give that many goals of a start and Bilje receive them. At -1, Primorje must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Primorje win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Primorje)
Primorje -2
25.5%
Draw -2
19.9%
Bilje +2
54.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Primorje)
Primorje -1
45.4%
Draw -1
21.6%
Bilje +1
33.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Primorje)
Primorje +1
86.4%
Draw +1
8.7%
Bilje -1
4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Primorje)
Primorje +2
95.1%
Draw +2
3.6%
Bilje -2
1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Primorje
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.97
0.57
0.93
0.19
1.00
vs Stronger (12)
0.17
1.33
0.20
1.60
0.14
1.14
vs Similar (17)
0.53
0.65
0.78
0.56
0.25
0.75
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Bilje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bilje
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.70
0.33
0.40
0.60
1.00
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
1.22
0.25
0.75
0.60
1.60
vs Similar (18)
0.44
0.56
0.33
0.33
0.56
0.78
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Primorje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
71.0%
Under 0.5
29.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
36.6%
Under 1.5
63.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
12.5%
Under 2.5
87.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Primorje over/under 0.5 HT
Over
51.3%
Under
48.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Primorje over/under 1.5 HT
Over
16.2%
Under
83.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Primorje over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.9%
Under
96.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilje over/under 0.5 HT
Over
36.1%
Under
63.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilje over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.1%
Under
92.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilje over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.1%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Primorje
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
1.13
0.50
0.79
0.25
1.44
vs Stronger (12)
0.25
1.58
0.20
1.00
0.29
2.00
vs Similar (17)
0.41
0.88
0.67
0.67
0.12
1.12
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Bilje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bilje
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.07
0.67
0.53
0.40
1.60
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
1.44
0.50
0.50
0.60
2.20
vs Similar (18)
0.39
0.94
0.56
0.56
0.22
1.33
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.67
1.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Primorje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
83.4%
Under 0.5
16.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
51.9%
Under 1.5
48.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
24.0%
Under 2.5
76.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Primorje over/under 0.5 2H
Over
64.9%
Under
35.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Primorje over/under 1.5 2H
Over
25.5%
Under
74.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Primorje over/under 2.5 2H
Over
9.3%
Under
90.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilje over/under 0.5 2H
Over
43.4%
Under
56.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilje over/under 1.5 2H
Over
11.0%
Under
89.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bilje over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.3%
Under
95.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
91.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TRI (19)
€2m
TS (17)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DRA (16)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
PRI (10)
€1m
JES (13)
€1m
SL (13)
€1m
KRŠ (13)
€1m
Primorje and Bilje have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DRA (4)
€0m
JES (5)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
KRŠ (4)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
SL (2)
€0m
PRI (3)
€0m
Primorje and Bilje have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TS (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
PRI (2)
€0m
SL (3)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (2)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
DRA (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
KRŠ (1)
€0m
Primorje and Bilje have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TRI (7)
€1m
DRA (10)
€1m
TS (8)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
KRŠ (8)
€0m
SL (8)
€0m
PRI (5)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (6)
€0m
Primorje and Bilje have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Tabor Sežana
Ilirija
Slovan Ljubljana
Jesenice
Bistrica
Triglav
Beltinci
Rudar
Dren Vrhnika
Krško
Dekani
Krka
Brežice
Dravinja