Primorje are the clear favourites, with a 58% chance of winning, 25% for a draw and 17% for Dravinja to come away victorious. The match is expected to produce 2.7 goals on average, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 12% probability. Primorje have been scoring 1.44 goals per game and conceding 1.22 at home against teams of similar strength, while Dravinja, on the road, average 1.11 goals scored and 1.44 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.7%), Under 6.5 (98.0%), Under 5.5 (94.4%), Home +2 handicap (94.1%), Away under 2.5 goals (93.9%), Home under 3.5 goals (89.0%) and Under 4.5 (86.3%). Primorje’s recent form shows a win after a shaky run, while Dravinja have just broken a four-game losing streak.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Primorje win
57.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dravinja win
17.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Primorje
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
2.10
1.07
1.71
0.44
2.44
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
2.92
0.40
2.60
0.43
3.14
vs Similar (17)
0.94
1.53
1.44
1.22
0.38
1.88
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Dravinja) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dravinja
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.53
1.13
1.60
1.00
1.47
vs Stronger (9)
1.11
2.11
1.50
2.50
0.80
1.80
vs Similar (19)
1.11
1.32
1.10
1.20
1.11
1.44
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Primorje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
76.1%
Under 1.5
23.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
50.5%
Under 2.5
49.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
28.5%
Under 3.5
71.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
50.4%
No
49.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.9%
1-0
11.1%
2-0
11.0%
2-1
9.8%
0-0
7.8%
3-0
6.6%
3-1
5.9%
0-1
4.9%
Primorje goals ↓
Dravinja goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.8%
4.9%
2.7%
0.8%
0.2%
1
11%
12%
4.8%
1.4%
0.3%
2
11%
9.8%
4.4%
1.3%
0.3%
3
6.6%
5.9%
2.6%
0.8%
0.2%
4
3.0%
2.7%
1.2%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Primorje goals (down), columns = Dravinja goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Triglav
2.13
Beltinci
2.00
Primorje
1.70
Tabor Sežana
1.67
Bistrica
1.50
Brežice
1.38
Dren Vrhnika
1.38
Rudar
1.23
Dravinja
1.23
Bilje
1.13
Dekani
1.10
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
0.97
Ilirija
0.90
Krško
0.87
Jesenice
0.60
Primorje is 0.46 points better than Dravinja in terms of average points per game (1.70 vs 1.23).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Triglav
2.40
Beltinci
1.83
Primorje
1.73
Bistrica
1.67
Rudar
1.53
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dekani
1.33
Ilirija
1.27
Tabor Sežana
1.23
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
1.07
Dravinja
1.07
Bilje
0.90
Jesenice
0.87
Krško
0.80
Primorje is 0.66 goals better than Dravinja in terms of goals scored per game (1.73 vs 1.07).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Beltinci
0.83
Triglav
0.93
Tabor Sežana
1.10
Primorje
1.15
Bistrica
1.20
Rudar
1.30
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dravinja
1.47
Dekani
1.53
Bilje
1.57
Krka
1.70
Slovan Ljubljana
1.73
Ilirija
1.73
Krško
2.07
Jesenice
2.27
Primorje is 0.32 goals better than Dravinja in terms of goals conceded per game (1.15 vs 1.47).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Primorje or Draw
82.9%
Avg Implied -
58%
25%
17%
covers Primorje + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Primorje or Dravinja
75.0%
Avg Implied -
58%
25%
17%
covers Primorje + Dravinja
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Dravinja
42.1%
Avg Implied -
58%
25%
17%
covers Draw + Dravinja
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Primorje over/under 0.5
Over
83.6%
Under
16.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Primorje over/under 1.5
Over
53.9%
Under
46.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Primorje over/under 2.5
Over
27.1%
Under
72.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Primorje over/under 3.5
Over
11.0%
Under
89.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dravinja over/under 0.5
Over
59.0%
Under
41.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dravinja over/under 1.5
Over
22.4%
Under
77.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dravinja over/under 2.5
Over
6.1%
Under
93.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dravinja over/under 3.5
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Primorje, so a minus line means Primorje give that many goals of a start and Dravinja receive them. At -1, Primorje must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Primorje win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Primorje)
Primorje -2
15.8%
Draw -2
18.2%
Dravinja +2
66.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Primorje)
Primorje -1
34.0%
Draw -1
23.9%
Dravinja +1
42.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Primorje)
Primorje +1
82.9%
Draw +1
11.2%
Dravinja -1
5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Primorje)
Primorje +2
94.1%
Draw +2
4.4%
Dravinja -2
1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Primorje
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.97
0.57
0.93
0.19
1.00
vs Stronger (12)
0.17
1.33
0.20
1.60
0.14
1.14
vs Similar (17)
0.53
0.65
0.78
0.56
0.25
0.75
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Dravinja) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dravinja
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.73
0.40
0.80
0.53
0.67
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
0.89
0.75
1.00
0.40
0.80
vs Similar (19)
0.42
0.74
0.30
0.80
0.56
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Primorje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Primorje over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Primorje over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Primorje over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dravinja over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dravinja over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dravinja over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Primorje
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
1.13
0.50
0.79
0.25
1.44
vs Stronger (12)
0.25
1.58
0.20
1.00
0.29
2.00
vs Similar (17)
0.41
0.88
0.67
0.67
0.12
1.12
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Dravinja) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dravinja
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.80
0.73
0.80
0.47
0.80
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
1.22
0.75
1.50
0.40
1.00
vs Similar (19)
0.68
0.58
0.80
0.40
0.56
0.78
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Primorje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Primorje over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Primorje over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Primorje over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dravinja over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dravinja over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dravinja over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TRI (19)
€2m
TS (17)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DRA (16)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
PRI (10)
€1m
JES (13)
€1m
SL (13)
€1m
KRŠ (13)
€1m
Primorje and Dravinja have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DRA (4)
€0m
JES (5)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
KRŠ (4)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
SL (2)
€0m
PRI (3)
€0m
Primorje and Dravinja have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TS (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
PRI (2)
€0m
SL (3)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (2)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
DRA (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
KRŠ (1)
€0m
Primorje and Dravinja have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TRI (7)
€1m
DRA (10)
€1m
TS (8)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
KRŠ (8)
€0m
SL (8)
€0m
PRI (5)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (6)
€0m
Primorje and Dravinja have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Tabor Sežana
Ilirija
Slovan Ljubljana
Jesenice
Bistrica
Triglav
Beltinci
Rudar
Dren Vrhnika
Bilje
Krško
Dekani
Krka
Brežice