The contest between Primorje and Triglav is finely balanced, with the model favouring an away win at 35%. The expected total is 2.3 goals, pointing to a modestly low-scoring affair. The most probable scoreline is 1-1, a 14.7% chance, which is distinct from the overall goal expectation. Primorje, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.25 goals scored and 1.12 conceded, while Triglav on the road averages 0.86 goals scored and 1.14 conceded against similar opposition. The model’s suggested picks are all low-goal selections: Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.3%), Under 5.5 (97.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.1%), Under 4.5 (92.1%), Home under 2.5 goals (89.8%), and Away under 2.5 goals (89.2%). The home win probability stands at 34%, a draw at 31%, and an away win at 35%. Both sides have recently lost, with Primorje down 0-4 to Beltinci and Triglav down 0-1 to Tabor Sežana, adding to the uncertainty of the match.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Primorje win
31.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Triglav win
40.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Primorje
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
2.10
1.07
1.71
0.44
2.44
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
2.92
0.40
2.60
0.43
3.14
vs Similar (17)
0.94
1.53
1.44
1.22
0.38
1.88
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Triglav) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Triglav
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.50
0.87
2.86
0.93
2.19
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.17
1.08
1.40
1.40
1.00
0.86
vs Weaker (18)
3.39
0.72
3.67
0.67
3.11
0.78
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Primorje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
74.6%
Under 1.5
25.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
48.3%
Under 2.5
51.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
26.5%
Under 3.5
73.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
54.0%
No
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%
0-1
9.1%
1-2
8.7%
0-0
8.6%
1-0
7.7%
2-1
7.5%
0-2
7.2%
2-0
5.4%
Primorje goals ↓
Triglav goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.6%
9.1%
7.2%
3.4%
1.2%
1
7.7%
14%
8.7%
4.1%
1.4%
2
5.4%
7.5%
5.3%
2.5%
0.9%
3
2.2%
3.0%
2.1%
1.0%
0.3%
4
0.6%
0.9%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Primorje goals (down), columns = Triglav goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Triglav
2.13
Beltinci
2.00
Primorje
1.70
Tabor Sežana
1.67
Bistrica
1.50
Brežice
1.38
Dren Vrhnika
1.38
Rudar
1.23
Dravinja
1.23
Bilje
1.13
Dekani
1.10
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
0.97
Ilirija
0.90
Krško
0.87
Jesenice
0.60
Primorje is 0.44 points worse than Triglav in terms of average points per game (1.70 vs 2.13).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Triglav
2.40
Beltinci
1.83
Primorje
1.73
Bistrica
1.67
Rudar
1.53
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dekani
1.33
Ilirija
1.27
Tabor Sežana
1.23
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
1.07
Dravinja
1.07
Bilje
0.90
Jesenice
0.87
Krško
0.80
Primorje is 0.67 goals worse than Triglav in terms of goals scored per game (1.73 vs 2.40).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Beltinci
0.83
Triglav
0.93
Tabor Sežana
1.10
Primorje
1.15
Bistrica
1.20
Rudar
1.30
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dravinja
1.47
Dekani
1.53
Bilje
1.57
Krka
1.70
Slovan Ljubljana
1.73
Ilirija
1.73
Krško
2.07
Jesenice
2.27
Primorje is 0.22 goals worse than Triglav in terms of goals conceded per game (1.15 vs 0.93).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Primorje or Draw
59.8%
Avg Implied -
31%
29%
40%
covers Primorje + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Primorje or Triglav
71.3%
Avg Implied -
31%
29%
40%
covers Primorje + Triglav
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Triglav
68.9%
Avg Implied -
31%
29%
40%
covers Draw + Triglav
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Primorje over/under 0.5
Over
70.0%
Under
30.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Primorje over/under 1.5
Over
33.9%
Under
66.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Primorje over/under 2.5
Over
12.2%
Under
87.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Primorje over/under 3.5
Over
3.4%
Under
96.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Triglav over/under 0.5
Over
75.4%
Under
24.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Triglav over/under 1.5
Over
40.8%
Under
59.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Triglav over/under 2.5
Over
16.7%
Under
83.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Triglav over/under 3.5
Over
5.4%
Under
94.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Primorje, so a minus line means Primorje give that many goals of a start and Triglav receive them. At -1, Primorje must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Primorje win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Primorje)
Primorje -2
4.4%
Draw -2
9.1%
Triglav +2
86.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Primorje)
Primorje -1
13.5%
Draw -1
17.6%
Triglav +1
68.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Primorje)
Primorje +1
59.8%
Draw +1
20.7%
Triglav -1
19.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Primorje)
Primorje +2
80.4%
Draw +2
12.3%
Triglav -2
7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Primorje
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.97
0.57
0.93
0.19
1.00
vs Stronger (12)
0.17
1.33
0.20
1.60
0.14
1.14
vs Similar (17)
0.53
0.65
0.78
0.56
0.25
0.75
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Triglav) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Triglav
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.43
1.14
0.43
1.00
0.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.50
0.42
0.80
0.60
0.29
0.29
vs Weaker (18)
1.44
0.44
1.33
0.33
1.56
0.56
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Primorje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Primorje over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Primorje over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Primorje over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Triglav over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Triglav over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Triglav over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Primorje
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
1.13
0.50
0.79
0.25
1.44
vs Stronger (12)
0.25
1.58
0.20
1.00
0.29
2.00
vs Similar (17)
0.41
0.88
0.67
0.67
0.12
1.12
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Triglav) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Triglav
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
0.43
1.71
0.50
1.19
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.67
0.67
0.60
0.80
0.71
0.57
vs Weaker (18)
1.94
0.28
2.33
0.33
1.56
0.22
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Primorje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Primorje over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Primorje over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Primorje over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Triglav over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Triglav over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Triglav over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
70.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TRI (19)
€2m
TS (17)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DRA (16)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
PRI (10)
€1m
JES (13)
€1m
SL (13)
€1m
KRŠ (13)
€1m
Primorje's squad is €1m less valuable than Triglav's (€1m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DRA (4)
€0m
JES (5)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
KRŠ (4)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
SL (2)
€0m
PRI (3)
€0m
Primorje and Triglav have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TS (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
PRI (2)
€0m
SL (3)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (2)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
DRA (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
KRŠ (1)
€0m
Primorje and Triglav have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TRI (7)
€1m
DRA (10)
€1m
TS (8)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
KRŠ (8)
€0m
SL (8)
€0m
PRI (5)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (6)
€0m
Primorje and Triglav have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Tabor Sežana
Ilirija
Slovan Ljubljana
Jesenice
Bistrica
Beltinci
Rudar
Dren Vrhnika
Bilje
Krško
Dekani
Krka
Brežice
Dravinja