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Qarabağ II vs Sumqayıt II Result & Analysis

Date: 03/05/2023
Time: 12:00
Final 0-1
Qarabağ II
Qarabağ II
Vs
64%
21%
15%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Sumqayıt II
Sumqayıt II
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Qarabağ II win✗ Miss
63.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
21.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt II win✓ Hit
14.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Qarabağ IIQarabağ II

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D12L03L10W01L20W03L12L10W50WH·FK 16/12H·ARA08/02A·MOI14/02H·MIN22/02A·QAR01/03H·SƏB08/03A·NEF13/03H·ZAQ30/03A·IMI12/04H·KEŞ18/04
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.221.431.250.921.182.00
vs Stronger (3)0.332.330.001.000.503.00
vs Similar (16)1.251.441.440.891.002.14
vs Weaker (4)1.750.751.001.002.500.50
Clean sheet %39% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Sumqayıt IISumqayıt II

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-613L11D14L13L01L30W13L12L16L02LA·ZIR15/02H·TUR21/02A·FK 02/03H·ARA08/03H·MOI14/03H·MIN29/03H·QAR05/04H·SƏB11/04A·NEF18/04H·ZAQ25/04
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.042.251.001.731.082.69
vs Stronger (15)1.002.531.002.141.002.88
vs Similar (5)1.002.000.501.001.332.67
vs Weaker (4)1.251.501.501.001.002.00
Clean sheet %12% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Qarabağ II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%122%222%318%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
83.5%
Under 1.5
16.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
61.5%
Under 2.5
38.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
39.2%
Under 3.5
60.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
56.5%
No
43.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
10.0%
1-1
9.9%
2-1
9.9%
1-0
8.2%
3-0
7.3%
3-1
7.2%
0-0
5.1%
2-2
4.9%
Qarabağ II goals ↓
Sumqayıt II goals →
01234
05.1%3.2%2.0%0.7%0.2%
18.2%9.9%4.4%1.5%0.4%
210%9.9%4.9%1.6%0.4%
37.3%7.2%3.6%1.2%0.3%
44.0%4.0%1.9%0.6%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Qarabağ II goals (down), columns = Sumqayıt II goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Araz
2.46
Neftçi II
2.11
Turan II
1.71
Zaqatala
1.57
Səbail II
1.57
FK Qəbələ II
1.57
MOIK
1.54
Kapaz II
1.54
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.46
Keşlə II
1.32
Qarabağ II
1.11
Zira II
1.11
Sumqayıt II
0.79
Imisli FK
0.71
Mingəçevir
0.61
Qarabağ II is 0.32 points better than Sumqayıt II in terms of average points per game (1.11 vs 0.79).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Araz
2.46
Neftçi II
2.39
Zaqatala
1.75
Turan II
1.75
Səbail II
1.64
FK Qəbələ II
1.61
MOIK
1.54
Kapaz II
1.46
Keşlə II
1.43
Sumqayıt II
1.29
Qarabağ II
1.14
Zira II
1.11
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.07
Mingəçevir
0.93
Imisli FK
0.75
Qarabağ II is 0.14 goals worse than Sumqayıt II in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 1.29).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Araz
0.79
Qaradağ Lökbatan
0.82
FK Qəbələ II
1.00
Neftçi II
1.14
Kapaz II
1.29
Turan II
1.32
Zira II
1.36
Qarabağ II
1.39
MOIK
1.50
Səbail II
1.57
Zaqatala
1.71
Mingəçevir
1.93
Keşlə II
2.00
Sumqayıt II
2.14
Imisli FK
2.36
Qarabağ II is 0.75 goals better than Sumqayıt II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.39 vs 2.14).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Qarabağ IIQarabağ II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-111D10W00D00D00D00D00D01L00D10WH·FK 16/12H·ARA08/02A·MOI14/02H·MIN22/02A·QAR01/03H·SƏB08/03A·NEF13/03H·ZAQ30/03A·IMI12/04H·KEŞ18/04
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.300.520.250.330.360.73
vs Stronger (3)0.000.670.001.000.000.50
vs Similar (16)0.250.560.330.220.141.00
vs Weaker (4)0.750.250.000.501.500.00
Clean sheet %65% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Sumqayıt IISumqayıt II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L00D02L01L00D00D10W00D12L01LA·ZIR15/02H·TUR21/02A·FK 02/03H·ARA08/03H·MOI14/03H·MIN29/03H·QAR05/04H·SƏB11/04A·NEF18/04H·ZAQ25/04
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.920.270.360.381.38
vs Stronger (15)0.400.930.430.430.381.38
vs Similar (5)0.001.000.000.000.001.67
vs Weaker (4)0.500.750.000.501.001.00
Clean sheet %33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Qarabağ II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Qarabağ II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabağ II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabağ II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Qarabağ IIQarabağ II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D02L03L10W01L20W03L11D10W40WH·FK 16/12H·ARA08/02A·MOI14/02H·MIN22/02A·QAR01/03H·SƏB08/03A·NEF13/03H·ZAQ30/03A·IMI12/04H·KEŞ18/04
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.910.911.000.580.821.27
vs Stronger (3)0.331.670.000.000.502.50
vs Similar (16)1.000.881.110.670.861.14
vs Weaker (4)1.000.501.000.501.000.50
Clean sheet %52% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Sumqayıt II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Sumqayıt IISumqayıt II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D11D12L12L01L30W03L12L04L01LA·ZIR15/02H·TUR21/02A·FK 02/03H·ARA08/03H·MOI14/03H·MIN29/03H·QAR05/04H·SƏB11/04A·NEF18/04H·ZAQ25/04
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.711.330.731.360.691.31
vs Stronger (15)0.601.600.571.710.621.50
vs Similar (5)1.001.000.501.001.331.00
vs Weaker (4)0.750.751.500.500.001.00
Clean sheet %21% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Qarabağ II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Qarabağ II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabağ II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabağ II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sumqayıt II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.583.5%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (18)
€6m
ARA (19)
€6m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARA (5)
€2m
IF (2)
€1m
MIN (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (9)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
1
QI wins
0
Draws
0
SI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Qarabağ II vs Sumqayıt II · H/A from QI
DateH/AGameScore
30/11/22ASumqayıt II Vs QI0-2

Qarabağ IIQarabağ II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/04/23HQI Vs Keşlə II5-0
12/04/23AImisli FK Vs QI0-1
30/03/23HQI Vs Zaqatala1-2
13/03/23ANeftçi II Vs QI3-0
08/03/23HQI Vs Səbail II2-0
01/03/23AQaradağ Lökbatan Vs QI1-0
22/02/23HQI Vs Mingəçevir1-0
14/02/23AMOIK Vs QI3-0
08/02/23HQI Vs Araz1-2
16/12/22HQI Vs FK Qəbələ II1-1

Sumqayıt IISumqayıt II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/04/23HSI Vs Zaqatala0-2
18/04/23ANeftçi II Vs SI6-1
11/04/23HSI Vs Səbail II1-2
05/04/23HSI Vs Qaradağ Lökbatan1-3
29/03/23HSI Vs Mingəçevir3-0
14/03/23HSI Vs MOIK0-1
08/03/23HSI Vs Araz1-3
02/03/23AFK Qəbələ II Vs SI4-1
21/02/23HSI Vs Turan II1-1
15/02/23AZira II Vs SI3-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Qarabağ II
Qarabağ II
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLWW1.17
HomeLWWLW1.42
AwayLLLLW0.91
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %35%42%27%
AVG goals2.652.173.18
Over 1.5 %70%58%82%
Over 2.5 %48%33%64%
Over 3.5 %26%17%36%
Scored1.221.251.18
Conceded1.430.922.00
BTTS39%33%45%
Clean Sheet39%50%27%
Corners---
Cards---
Sumqayıt II
Sumqayıt II
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 1 Wins / 1 Draws / 8 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLLL0.54
HomeLWLLL0.64
AwayLLLLL0.46
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %12%18%8%
AVG goals3.292.733.77
Over 1.5 %88%82%92%
Over 2.5 %71%55%85%
Over 3.5 %50%27%69%
Scored1.041.001.08
Conceded2.251.732.69
BTTS67%55%77%
Clean Sheet12%18%8%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ArazAraz2869
79%
2.5
6922+47
3.2
89%
64%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3222.50.8
-
2Neftçi IINeftçi II2859
64%
2.1
6732+35
3.5
89%
68%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.1
-
3Turan IITuran II2848
54%
1.7
4937+12
3.1
82%
61%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.3
-
4FK Qəbələ IIFK Qəbələ II2844
43%
1.6
4528+17
2.6
71%
39%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.0
-
5Səbail IISəbail II2844
46%
1.6
4644+2
3.2
86%
64%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.6
-
6ZaqatalaZaqatala2844
46%
1.6
4948+1
3.5
96%
71%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.7
-
7Kapaz IIKapaz II2843
46%
1.5
4136+5
2.8
75%
61%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.3
-
8MOIKMOIK2843
43%
1.5
4342+1
3.0
82%
61%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.5
-
9Qaradağ LökbatanQaradağ Lökbatan2841
43%
1.5
3023+7
1.9
50%
32%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.10.8
-
10Keşlə IIKeşlə II2837
39%
1.3
4056-16
3.4
79%
68%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.0
-
11Qarabağ IIQarabağ II2831
32%
1.1
3239-7
2.5
68%
46%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.4
-
12Zira IIZira II2831
25%
1.1
3138-7
2.5
75%
54%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.4
-
13Sumqayıt IISumqayıt II2822
21%
0.8
3660-24
3.4
86%
71%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.1
-
14Imisli FKImisli FK2820
21%
0.7
2166-45
3.1
82%
57%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3130.82.4
-
15MingəçevirMingəçevir2817
14%
0.6
2654-28
2.9
82%
54%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.9
-
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →

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