This opponent (Imisli FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Imisli FK
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.73
1.12
0.62
1.64
0.86
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.33
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (19)
1.58
1.00
1.40
0.80
1.78
1.22
vs Weaker (8)
1.12
0.25
0.75
0.25
1.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Qaradağ Lökbatan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
65.0%
Under 1.5
35.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
36.8%
Under 2.5
63.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
17.4%
Under 3.5
82.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
42.2%
No
57.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1
14.4%
1-1
13.8%
0-0
12.7%
0-2
10.7%
1-2
8.6%
1-0
7.9%
2-1
5.0%
0-3
4.9%
Qaradağ Lökbatan goals ↓
Imisli FK goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
14%
11%
4.9%
1.7%
1
7.9%
14%
8.6%
3.9%
1.3%
2
3.6%
5.0%
3.4%
1.6%
0.5%
3
1.0%
1.3%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.2%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Qaradağ Lökbatan goals (down), columns = Imisli FK goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Araz
2.50
Qarabag
2.17
MOIK
2.00
Neftchi Baku
2.00
Turan
2.00
Sabah FA
1.67
Səbail
1.50
Imisli FK
1.50
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.50
Mingəçevir
1.50
Şamaxı FK
1.50
Kapaz
1.50
Qabala
1.50
Safa Baku
1.00
Zira
1.00
Ağstafa Gəncləri
0.96
Goy-Gol
0.96
Şəki PFK
0.96
Kür-Araz
0.96
Xankəndi FK
0.96
Şirvan FK
0.96
Araz Saatlı
0.96
Sumqayıt
0.67
Difai Ağsu
0.50
Hypers Guba
0.00
Şəmkir
0.00
Ağdaş
0.00
Dinamo Bakı
0.00
Şimal
0.00
Şahdağ
0.00
Karvan
0.00
Zaqatala
0.00
Cəbrayıl
0.00
Baku Sportinq
0.00
Qaradağ Lökbatan and Imisli FK are level in average points per game (both 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Turan
4.00
Şamaxı FK
3.50
Imisli FK
2.50
Səbail
2.25
Neftchi Baku
2.20
Hypers Guba
2.00
Safa Baku
2.00
MOIK
2.00
Qabala
2.00
Qarabag
1.83
Araz
1.83
Kapaz
1.75
Sabah FA
1.67
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.50
Ağstafa Gəncləri
1.38
Goy-Gol
1.38
Şəki PFK
1.38
Kür-Araz
1.38
Xankəndi FK
1.38
Şirvan FK
1.38
Araz Saatlı
1.38
Şəmkir
1.00
Difai Ağsu
1.00
Şimal
1.00
Cəbrayıl
1.00
Mingəçevir
1.00
Zira
1.00
Sumqayıt
0.33
Ağdaş
0.00
Dinamo Bakı
0.00
Şahdağ
0.00
Karvan
0.00
Zaqatala
0.00
Baku Sportinq
0.00
Qaradağ Lökbatan is 1.00 goals worse than Imisli FK in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 2.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Neftchi Baku
0.60
Qarabag
0.67
Araz
0.67
Kapaz
0.75
Sabah FA
0.83
Səbail
1.00
MOIK
1.00
Imisli FK
1.00
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.00
Zaqatala
1.00
Qabala
1.00
Zira
1.33
Mingəçevir
1.50
Turan
1.50
Sumqayıt
1.67
Safa Baku
2.00
Şamaxı FK
2.00
Ağstafa Gəncləri
2.50
Goy-Gol
2.50
Şəki PFK
2.50
Kür-Araz
2.50
Xankəndi FK
2.50
Şirvan FK
2.50
Araz Saatlı
2.50
Şimal
3.00
Karvan
3.00
Difai Ağsu
4.00
Şahdağ
4.00
Baku Sportinq
4.00
Cəbrayıl
5.00
Şəmkir
6.00
Ağdaş
6.00
Dinamo Bakı
6.00
Hypers Guba
7.00
Qaradağ Lökbatan and Imisli FK are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Qaradağ Lökbatan or Draw✗ Miss
50.9%
Avg Implied -
21%
30%
49%
covers Qaradağ Lökbatan + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Qaradağ Lökbatan or Imisli FK✓ Hit
69.7%
Avg Implied -
21%
30%
49%
covers Qaradağ Lökbatan + Imisli FK
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Imisli FK✓ Hit
79.5%
Avg Implied -
21%
30%
49%
covers Draw + Imisli FK
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Qaradağ Lökbatan over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
54.9%
Under
45.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qaradağ Lökbatan over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
19.0%
Under
81.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qaradağ Lökbatan over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
4.7%
Under
95.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qaradağ Lökbatan over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Imisli FK over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
74.6%
Under
25.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Imisli FK over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
39.8%
Under
60.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Imisli FK over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
15.9%
Under
84.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Imisli FK over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.0%
Under
95.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Qaradağ Lökbatan, so a minus line means Qaradağ Lökbatan give that many goals of a start and Imisli FK receive them. At -1, Qaradağ Lökbatan must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Qaradağ Lökbatan win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Qaradağ Lökbatan)Actual: Imisli FK
Qaradağ Lökbatan -2
1.5%
Draw -2
5.2%
Imisli FK +2
93.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Qaradağ Lökbatan)Actual: Imisli FK
Qaradağ Lökbatan -1
6.7%
Draw -1
13.9%
Imisli FK +1
79.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Qaradağ Lökbatan)Actual: Draw
Qaradağ Lökbatan +1
50.9%
Draw +1
24.7%
Imisli FK -1
24.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Qaradağ Lökbatan)Actual: Qaradağ Lökbatan
Qaradağ Lökbatan +2
75.6%
Draw +2
15.2%
Imisli FK -2
9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Qaradağ Lökbatan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.60
0.69
0.38
0.50
0.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.53
0.53
0.44
0.56
0.62
0.50
vs Weaker (13)
0.69
0.69
1.00
0.14
0.33
1.33
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Imisli FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Imisli FK
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.20
0.38
0.12
0.79
0.29
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (19)
0.58
0.21
0.30
0.10
0.89
0.33
vs Weaker (8)
0.62
0.25
0.50
0.25
0.75
0.25
Clean sheet %
80% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Qaradağ Lökbatan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Qaradağ Lökbatan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qaradağ Lökbatan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qaradağ Lökbatan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Imisli FK over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Imisli FK over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Imisli FK over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Qaradağ Lökbatan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.93
1.00
0.88
0.29
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.53
1.35
0.56
1.22
0.50
1.50
vs Weaker (13)
0.85
0.38
1.57
0.43
0.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Imisli FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Imisli FK
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.53
0.75
0.50
0.86
0.57
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (19)
1.00
0.79
1.10
0.70
0.89
0.89
vs Weaker (8)
0.50
0.00
0.25
0.00
0.75
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Qaradağ Lökbatan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Qaradağ Lökbatan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qaradağ Lökbatan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qaradağ Lökbatan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Imisli FK over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Imisli FK over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Imisli FK over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 goals
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Draw or Away
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →