The encounter between QPR and Millwall is finely balanced, with the model favouring a home win but the odds for a draw and an away win are close. The predicted probabilities are 39% for a QPR victory, 28% for a draw, and 32% for Millwall. The average number of goals expected is 2.6, with the most likely total being 2 goals at 26%. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, occurring with a 13.6% chance. QPR, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 2.08 goals scored and 1.42 conceded, while Millwall away averages 1.27 scored and 1.0 conceded. The suggested selections include Under 7.5 (99.4%), Under 6.5 (98.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.2%), Under 5.5 (94.7%), Home under 3.5 goals (94.6%), Under 4.5 (87.1%), Away under 2.5 goals (87.0%), and Home +2 handicap (85.8%). QPR’s recent form shows a win, while Millwall’s recent form reflects a defeat, adding to the uncertainty of the outcome.
Results analysis
The draw stunned the pre-match favourite, the model’s Home win call, which had a 39% chance. QPR, fresh from a win, and Millwall, fresh from a defeat, finished 1-1, a result that the model’s prediction missed. The upset was the first of the season, with the final score of 1-1 giving a draw. The model’s selection for a Home win was incorrect. All of the model’s other picks hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99.4%, Under 6.5 at 98.1%, Away under 3.5 goals at 96.2%, Under 5.5 at 94.7%, Home under 3.5 goals at 94.6%, Under 4.5 at 87.1%, Away under 2.5 goals at 87.0% and Home +2 handicap at 85.8%. Each probability was expressed as a percentage.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
QPR win✗ Miss
39.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
28.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Millwall win✗ Miss
32.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
QPR
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.63
1.93
1.67
0.80
1.60
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
2.50
1.33
2.67
0.67
2.33
vs Similar (24)
1.46
1.42
2.08
1.42
0.83
1.42
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Millwall) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Millwall
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.03
1.50
1.07
1.31
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
1.38
1.03
1.50
1.07
1.27
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (QPR) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.4%
Under 1.5
24.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
49.3%
Under 2.5
50.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.4%
Under 3.5
72.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
54.9%
No
45.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.6%
1-0
8.7%
2-1
8.7%
0-0
8.3%
1-2
7.7%
0-1
7.6%
2-0
7.0%
0-2
5.5%
QPR goals ↓
Millwall goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.3%
7.6%
5.5%
2.3%
0.7%
1
8.7%
14%
7.7%
3.2%
1.0%
2
7.0%
8.7%
5.4%
2.2%
0.7%
3
3.3%
4.1%
2.5%
1.0%
0.3%
4
1.1%
1.4%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = QPR goals (down), columns = Millwall goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Manchester City
3.00
Cardiff
2.40
Millwall
2.33
Arsenal
2.17
Doncaster
2.00
Port Vale
2.00
Southampton
2.00
Reading
2.00
Cambridge
2.00
Accrington
2.00
Wycombe
2.00
Bradford
2.00
Plymouth
2.00
Lincoln
2.00
Brighton
2.00
Wigan
2.00
Wolves
2.00
Chelsea
1.80
Newcastle
1.80
Grimsby
1.75
Wrexham
1.75
Fulham
1.75
Swansea
1.75
Brentford
1.75
Crystal Palace
1.67
Coventry
1.50
Bristol City
1.50
Cheltenham
1.50
Birmingham
1.50
Stockport
1.50
Everton
1.50
Tottenham
1.50
Norwich
1.50
Charlton
1.50
Burnley
1.50
Liverpool
1.50
Oxford
1.50
Preston
1.50
Mansfield
1.50
Barnsley
1.33
Salford
1.00
Fleetwood Town
1.00
Leeds
1.00
Barnet
1.00
West Brom
1.00
Leicester
1.00
Bromley
1.00
Gillingham
1.00
Manchester United
1.00
Hull
1.00
Sunderland
1.00
Aston Villa
1.00
Ipswich
1.00
Tranmere
1.00
Walsall
1.00
Bolton
1.00
Sheffield Weds
0.67
Huddersfield
0.67
Burton
0.50
Rotherham
0.50
AFC Wimbledon
0.50
Stoke
0.50
Derby
0.50
Newport County
0.50
Rochdale
0.49
York
0.36
Bristol Rvs
0.00
Exeter
0.00
West Ham
0.00
Sheffield United
0.00
Blackpool
0.00
Blackburn
0.00
Northampton
0.00
Oldham
0.00
Shrewsbury
0.00
Crawley Town
0.00
Stevenage
0.00
QPR
0.00
Notts County
0.00
Watford
0.00
Bournemouth
0.00
Leyton Orient
0.00
Milton Keynes Dons
0.00
Nottingham Forest
0.00
Portsmouth
0.00
Swindon
0.00
Chesterfield
0.00
Middlesbrough
0.00
Crewe
0.00
Luton
0.00
Peterboro
0.00
Colchester
0.00
QPR is 2.33 points worse than Millwall in terms of average points per game (0.00 vs 2.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Brighton
4.00
Hull
3.00
Bolton
3.00
Wolves
2.67
Manchester City
2.33
Wrexham
2.25
Chelsea
2.20
Cardiff
2.00
West Ham
2.00
Doncaster
2.00
Fleetwood Town
2.00
Barnet
2.00
QPR
2.00
Leicester
2.00
Swansea
2.00
Bradford
2.00
Plymouth
2.00
Manchester United
2.00
Nottingham Forest
2.00
Charlton
2.00
Brentford
2.00
Newcastle
1.80
Southampton
1.67
Cambridge
1.67
Accrington
1.67
Lincoln
1.67
Crystal Palace
1.67
Grimsby
1.50
Stockport
1.50
Tottenham
1.50
Burnley
1.50
Arsenal
1.50
Preston
1.50
Barnsley
1.33
Reading
1.33
Millwall
1.33
Sheffield Weds
1.33
Fulham
1.25
Wycombe
1.25
Coventry
1.00
Bristol City
1.00
Cheltenham
1.00
Sheffield United
1.00
Birmingham
1.00
Leeds
1.00
Blackburn
1.00
Oldham
1.00
Shrewsbury
1.00
Crawley Town
1.00
Stevenage
1.00
AFC Wimbledon
1.00
West Brom
1.00
Bromley
1.00
Watford
1.00
Gillingham
1.00
Everton
1.00
Norwich
1.00
Sunderland
1.00
Aston Villa
1.00
Liverpool
1.00
Derby
1.00
Ipswich
1.00
Portsmouth
1.00
Swindon
1.00
Tranmere
1.00
Newport County
1.00
Huddersfield
1.00
Crewe
1.00
Peterboro
1.00
Mansfield
1.00
Port Vale
0.67
Wigan
0.67
Rochdale
0.58
Burton
0.50
Rotherham
0.50
Oxford
0.50
York
0.43
Bristol Rvs
0.00
Salford
0.00
Exeter
0.00
Blackpool
0.00
Northampton
0.00
Notts County
0.00
Bournemouth
0.00
Leyton Orient
0.00
Milton Keynes Dons
0.00
Stoke
0.00
Chesterfield
0.00
Walsall
0.00
Middlesbrough
0.00
Luton
0.00
Colchester
0.00
QPR is 0.67 goals better than Millwall in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 1.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Salford
0.00
Walsall
0.00
Manchester City
0.33
Wycombe
0.50
Port Vale
0.67
Southampton
0.67
Cambridge
0.67
Millwall
0.67
Crystal Palace
0.67
Brighton
0.67
Wigan
0.67
Fulham
0.75
Brentford
0.75
Arsenal
0.83
Coventry
1.00
Bristol City
1.00
Doncaster
1.00
Burton
1.00
Birmingham
1.00
Leeds
1.00
Blackpool
1.00
Northampton
1.00
Rotherham
1.00
Stockport
1.00
West Brom
1.00
Notts County
1.00
Bromley
1.00
Gillingham
1.00
Leyton Orient
1.00
Everton
1.00
Tottenham
1.00
Lincoln
1.00
Sunderland
1.00
Aston Villa
1.00
Ipswich
1.00
Tranmere
1.00
Luton
1.00
Mansfield
1.00
Colchester
1.00
Cardiff
1.20
Reading
1.33
Accrington
1.33
Newcastle
1.40
Cheltenham
1.50
AFC Wimbledon
1.50
Plymouth
1.50
Stoke
1.50
Burnley
1.50
Derby
1.50
Newport County
1.50
Preston
1.50
Bradford
1.67
Sheffield Weds
1.67
Huddersfield
1.67
Wrexham
1.75
Swansea
1.75
Chelsea
1.80
Bristol Rvs
2.00
Exeter
2.00
Sheffield United
2.00
Grimsby
2.00
Fleetwood Town
2.00
Blackburn
2.00
Barnet
2.00
Leicester
2.00
Watford
2.00
Bournemouth
2.00
Norwich
2.00
Milton Keynes Dons
2.00
Manchester United
2.00
Charlton
2.00
Liverpool
2.00
Portsmouth
2.00
Swindon
2.00
Chesterfield
2.00
Wolves
2.00
Peterboro
2.00
West Ham
3.00
Barnsley
3.00
Oldham
3.00
Shrewsbury
3.00
Crawley Town
3.00
Stevenage
3.00
QPR
3.00
Nottingham Forest
3.00
Hull
3.00
Oxford
3.00
Crewe
3.00
Bolton
3.00
Rochdale
3.23
Middlesbrough
4.00
York
4.34
QPR is 2.33 goals worse than Millwall in terms of goals conceded per game (3.00 vs 0.67).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Leeds
80%
Barnet
77%
Peterboro
72%
Ipswich
71%
Chesterfield
71%
Manchester United
70%
Sunderland
70%
Stoke
66%
Manchester City
66%
Blackburn
65%
Bournemouth
65%
Notts County
64%
Portsmouth
63%
Tranmere
63%
Birmingham
62%
Fulham
62%
Middlesbrough
62%
Hull
61%
Chelsea
60%
Leicester
60%
Liverpool
60%
Oldham
58%
Stevenage
58%
Preston
58%
Brighton
57%
Bristol Rvs
57%
Blackpool
57%
Cardiff
57%
Everton
56%
Coventry
56%
Barnsley
56%
Stockport
55%
West Brom
55%
Nottingham Forest
55%
Tottenham
54%
Arsenal
54%
Aston Villa
54%
Bristol City
54%
Exeter
53%
Newcastle
53%
Bolton
53%
Norwich
52%
Plymouth
52%
Salford
51%
Gillingham
51%
Burnley
51%
Wycombe
50%
Oxford
50%
AFC Wimbledon
50%
Millwall
50%
Doncaster
49%
West Ham
49%
Southampton
49%
Swansea
49%
Leyton Orient
49%
Charlton
48%
Wolves
48%
Lincoln
47%
Reading
46%
Sheffield United
46%
Luton
46%
Wrexham
46%
Derby
45%
Brentford
44%
Grimsby
44%
Shrewsbury
44%
Watford
44%
Crewe
44%
Rotherham
44%
Northampton
43%
Cheltenham
42%
Burton
42%
Wigan
42%
Crystal Palace
42%
Sheffield Weds
40%
Crawley Town
39%
Cambridge
37%
Colchester
37%
Fleetwood Town
35%
Accrington
35%
Milton Keynes Dons
35%
Bradford
33%
Huddersfield
32%
Mansfield
32%
QPR
31%
Port Vale
31%
Newport County
30%
Bromley
30%
Swindon
27%
Walsall
26%
QPR is 19.0 percentage points worse than Millwall in terms of average possession (31% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
QPR
For 4.5 · Against 5.4 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 2.1 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 9.0 · Total 22.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Millwall
For 6.5 · Against 7.0 · Total 13.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.3 · Total 2.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 7.7 · Total 19.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
QPR
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
9.2
11.3
3.8
4.0
3.6
21.0
21.6
20.4
vs Stronger (10)
11.5
9.0
13.2
3.1
2.8
3.3
21.7
19.8
23.0
vs Similar (40)
9.9
9.2
10.7
4.0
4.3
3.6
20.8
21.9
19.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
52%
46%
58%
58%
62%
54%
46%
50%
42%
% under line
48%
54%
42%
42%
38%
46%
54%
50%
58%
This opponent (Millwall) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Millwall
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.1
11.4
10.8
3.6
3.3
3.9
21.0
20.1
21.8
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (48)
11.0
11.2
10.7
3.6
3.3
3.9
21.0
20.2
21.9
vs Weaker (2)
14.0
14.0
14.0
4.0
3.0
5.0
19.5
18.0
21.0
% over line
56%
60%
52%
48%
36%
60%
34%
24%
44%
% under line
44%
40%
48%
52%
64%
40%
66%
76%
56%
This opponent (QPR) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Crawley Town
11.9
Sheffield United
11.6
Plymouth
11.4
Oxford
11.3
Newcastle
11.1
Millwall
11.1
Leicester
11.0
Southampton
11.0
West Ham
11.0
Swindon
10.9
Middlesbrough
10.9
Stoke
10.8
Portsmouth
10.7
Preston
10.7
Port Vale
10.7
Barnsley
10.6
Cardiff
10.6
Bournemouth
10.5
Luton
10.5
Wigan
10.5
Fulham
10.5
Blackburn
10.5
Hull
10.5
Huddersfield
10.4
Burton
10.4
Norwich
10.4
Bromley
10.3
Grimsby
10.3
Liverpool
10.3
QPR
10.3
Bolton
10.2
Wycombe
10.2
Walsall
10.2
Manchester City
10.2
Blackpool
10.2
Exeter
10.2
Chesterfield
10.2
Peterboro
10.2
Swansea
10.2
Sheffield Weds
10.2
Fleetwood Town
10.1
Barnet
10.1
Watford
10.1
Wrexham
10.1
Birmingham
10.1
Oldham
10.1
Northampton
10.0
Nottingham Forest
10.0
Bristol City
9.9
Tranmere
9.9
Chelsea
9.9
Bradford
9.9
Derby
9.9
Brentford
9.9
Ipswich
9.9
Doncaster
9.9
Tottenham
9.8
Stockport
9.8
Rotherham
9.7
Mansfield
9.7
AFC Wimbledon
9.7
Coventry
9.7
Cheltenham
9.7
Leeds
9.6
Leyton Orient
9.6
Brighton
9.6
Salford
9.6
Manchester United
9.6
Accrington
9.6
Charlton
9.5
Aston Villa
9.5
West Brom
9.5
Everton
9.4
Bristol Rvs
9.4
Newport County
9.4
Wolves
9.4
Notts County
9.4
Gillingham
9.4
Burnley
9.3
Crewe
9.3
Reading
9.3
Colchester
9.2
Sunderland
9.2
Cambridge
9.1
Lincoln
9.1
Arsenal
9.0
York
9.0
Milton Keynes Dons
8.8
Crystal Palace
8.7
Stevenage
8.6
Shrewsbury
8.4
Rochdale
7.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Plymouth
5.0
Tottenham
4.7
Bristol Rvs
4.5
Bournemouth
4.5
Chelsea
4.4
Watford
4.4
Notts County
4.4
Sunderland
4.3
Bradford
4.3
Peterboro
4.2
Manchester United
4.2
Colchester
4.2
Shrewsbury
4.2
Hull
4.2
Ipswich
4.2
Crawley Town
4.2
Newcastle
4.2
Chesterfield
4.1
Brighton
4.1
Rotherham
4.1
Huddersfield
4.1
Derby
4.1
Lincoln
4.0
Accrington
4.0
Leyton Orient
4.0
Sheffield United
4.0
Gillingham
4.0
Southampton
4.0
Swansea
4.0
Blackburn
4.0
Doncaster
3.9
York
3.9
Portsmouth
3.9
Stoke
3.9
Oldham
3.9
Grimsby
3.9
Norwich
3.9
Crewe
3.8
Tranmere
3.8
Brentford
3.8
Bristol City
3.8
Newport County
3.8
Crystal Palace
3.8
QPR
3.8
Stevenage
3.8
Luton
3.8
West Ham
3.8
Wolves
3.8
Aston Villa
3.8
Fleetwood Town
3.7
Bromley
3.7
Birmingham
3.7
Manchester City
3.7
Coventry
3.7
Everton
3.7
Middlesbrough
3.7
Wycombe
3.7
Walsall
3.7
Mansfield
3.7
Bolton
3.7
Cheltenham
3.7
Blackpool
3.7
Barnet
3.7
Milton Keynes Dons
3.6
Millwall
3.6
Burton
3.6
Charlton
3.6
Fulham
3.6
Leicester
3.6
Salford
3.6
Liverpool
3.5
Reading
3.5
West Brom
3.5
Wrexham
3.5
Nottingham Forest
3.5
Arsenal
3.5
Swindon
3.5
Northampton
3.5
Cardiff
3.5
Port Vale
3.5
Leeds
3.4
Oxford
3.4
Barnsley
3.4
Stockport
3.4
Preston
3.4
Exeter
3.3
Burnley
3.2
Wigan
3.2
AFC Wimbledon
3.1
Cambridge
3.1
Rochdale
3.0
Sheffield Weds
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Rochdale
29.0
Crewe
25.7
Crawley Town
25.3
Oldham
25.1
Colchester
25.0
Bradford
24.8
Salford
24.6
Huddersfield
24.5
Notts County
24.5
Stevenage
24.4
Plymouth
24.4
Bristol Rvs
24.2
Rotherham
24.0
Ipswich
24.0
Gillingham
23.9
Luton
23.9
Grimsby
23.9
Peterboro
23.8
Aston Villa
23.7
Barnet
23.6
Blackpool
23.6
Milton Keynes Dons
23.6
Wigan
23.6
Nottingham Forest
23.4
Newport County
23.2
Wolves
23.2
Bournemouth
23.2
AFC Wimbledon
23.1
Doncaster
23.1
Leyton Orient
23.1
Chelsea
23.0
Cheltenham
23.0
Cambridge
22.8
Sunderland
22.8
Tottenham
22.7
Fleetwood Town
22.7
Tranmere
22.7
Walsall
22.7
Lincoln
22.6
Shrewsbury
22.6
Southampton
22.6
Derby
22.6
Bolton
22.4
Northampton
22.4
Reading
22.4
Accrington
22.4
Swansea
22.3
West Ham
22.3
Mansfield
22.3
Chesterfield
22.1
Bromley
22.1
Leicester
22.1
Birmingham
22.1
Arsenal
22.1
Brighton
22.0
Portsmouth
22.0
Everton
21.9
Manchester United
21.9
Burton
21.9
Exeter
21.9
Oxford
21.9
Leeds
21.8
Charlton
21.7
Newcastle
21.6
Sheffield Weds
21.6
Sheffield United
21.6
Crystal Palace
21.5
Middlesbrough
21.5
Watford
21.4
Hull
21.4
Wycombe
21.3
Manchester City
21.3
Stockport
21.2
Blackburn
21.2
Port Vale
21.2
Norwich
21.2
Bristol City
21.1
Liverpool
21.0
QPR
21.0
Swindon
21.0
Millwall
21.0
Barnsley
20.9
Coventry
20.9
West Brom
20.8
Cardiff
20.7
Stoke
20.6
Burnley
20.4
Fulham
20.2
York
20.0
Preston
19.8
Brentford
19.6
Wrexham
19.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
51.0%
Under 9.5
49.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
49.9%
Under 3.5
50.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
48.4%
Under 21.5
51.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
QPR or Draw✓ Hit
68.0%
Avg Implied -
39%
28%
32%
covers QPR + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
QPR or Millwall✗ Miss
71.5%
Avg Implied -
39%
28%
32%
covers QPR + Millwall
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Millwall✓ Hit
60.5%
Avg Implied -
39%
28%
32%
covers Draw + Millwall
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
QPR over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
75.4%
Under
24.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
QPR over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
40.9%
Under
59.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
QPR over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
16.7%
Under
83.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
QPR over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.4%
Under
94.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Millwall over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
71.2%
Under
28.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Millwall over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
35.3%
Under
64.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Millwall over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
13.0%
Under
87.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Millwall over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.8%
Under
96.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to QPR, so a minus line means QPR give that many goals of a start and Millwall receive them. At -1, QPR must win by two or more to land; a one-goal QPR win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (QPR)Actual: Millwall
QPR -2
7.1%
Draw -2
12.0%
Millwall +2
80.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (QPR)Actual: Millwall
QPR -1
19.2%
Draw -1
20.3%
Millwall +1
60.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (QPR)Actual: QPR
QPR +1
68.0%
Draw +1
17.9%
Millwall -1
14.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (QPR)Actual: QPR
QPR +2
85.8%
Draw +2
9.4%
Millwall -2
4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
QPR
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.83
0.93
0.53
0.27
1.13
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
1.00
0.33
0.33
0.00
1.67
vs Similar (24)
0.71
0.79
1.08
0.58
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Millwall) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Millwall
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.40
0.71
0.21
0.25
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.48
0.41
0.71
0.21
0.27
0.60
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+49pp vs league)
This opponent (QPR) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
QPR over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
QPR over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
QPR over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Millwall over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Millwall over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Millwall over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
QPR
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.80
1.00
1.13
0.53
0.47
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
1.50
1.00
2.33
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (24)
0.75
0.62
1.00
0.83
0.50
0.42
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Millwall) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Millwall
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.63
0.79
0.86
1.06
0.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.90
0.62
0.79
0.86
1.00
0.40
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (QPR) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
QPR over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
QPR over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
QPR over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Millwall over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Millwall over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Millwall over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
QPR
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Koki Saito33%
Ilias Chair25%
Jimmy Dunne25%
Paul Smyth25%
Nicolas Madsen0%
Rumarn Burrell0%
Jake Clarke-Salter0%
Kwame Poku0%
Ronnie Edwards0%
Harvey Vale0%
Amadou Salif Mbengue0%
Alfie Lloyd0%
Pierce Charles0%
Kealey Adamson0%
Richard Kone0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jake Clarke-Salter67%
Ronnie Edwards50%
Nicolas Madsen0%
Ilias Chair0%
Rumarn Burrell0%
Jimmy Dunne0%
Paul Smyth0%
Koki Saito0%
Kwame Poku0%
Harvey Vale0%
Amadou Salif Mbengue0%
Alfie Lloyd0%
Pierce Charles0%
Kealey Adamson0%
Richard Kone0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Harvey Vale33%
Ilias Chair25%
Rumarn Burrell25%
Amadou Salif Mbengue25%
Nicolas Madsen0%
Jimmy Dunne0%
Paul Smyth0%
Koki Saito0%
Jake Clarke-Salter0%
Kwame Poku0%
Ronnie Edwards0%
Alfie Lloyd0%
Pierce Charles0%
Kealey Adamson0%
Richard Kone0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Harvey Vale33%
Alfie Lloyd33%
Richard Kone33%
Ilias Chair25%
Kwame Poku25%
Nicolas Madsen0%
Rumarn Burrell0%
Jimmy Dunne0%
Paul Smyth0%
Koki Saito0%
Jake Clarke-Salter0%
Ronnie Edwards0%
Amadou Salif Mbengue0%
Pierce Charles0%
Kealey Adamson0%
Millwall
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Luke Cundle40%
Josh Coburn25%
Tairyk Arconte25%
Jake Cooper20%
Mark Sykes20%
Casper De Norre0%
Lyndon Dykes0%
Lukas Jensen0%
Caleb Taylor0%
Zak Sturge0%
Camiel Neghli0%
Jenson Metcalfe0%
Zak Lovelace0%
Daniel Kelly0%
Kyrell Lisbie0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jenson Metcalfe40%
Josh Coburn25%
Mark Sykes20%
Casper De Norre0%
Jake Cooper0%
Lyndon Dykes0%
Luke Cundle0%
Lukas Jensen0%
Caleb Taylor0%
Zak Sturge0%
Camiel Neghli0%
Tairyk Arconte0%
Zak Lovelace0%
Daniel Kelly0%
Kyrell Lisbie0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Zak Lovelace33%
Jake Cooper20%
Camiel Neghli20%
Jenson Metcalfe20%
Casper De Norre0%
Mark Sykes0%
Lyndon Dykes0%
Luke Cundle0%
Lukas Jensen0%
Josh Coburn0%
Caleb Taylor0%
Zak Sturge0%
Tairyk Arconte0%
Daniel Kelly0%
Kyrell Lisbie0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Josh Coburn25%
Casper De Norre0%
Jake Cooper0%
Mark Sykes0%
Lyndon Dykes0%
Luke Cundle0%
Lukas Jensen0%
Caleb Taylor0%
Zak Sturge0%
Camiel Neghli0%
Jenson Metcalfe0%
Tairyk Arconte0%
Zak Lovelace0%
Daniel Kelly0%
Kyrell Lisbie0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (39)
€1407m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
TOT (36)
€920m
BHA (30)
€620m
BOU (31)
€573m
NEW (25)
€568m
BRE (32)
€565m
NFO (28)
€551m
AVL (27)
€536m
CRY (29)
€505m
EVE (24)
€459m
LEE (27)
€427m
SUN (30)
€392m
FUL (21)
€329m
IPS (31)
€280m
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
COV (27)
€237m
SOU (30)
€205m
MID (29)
€142m
BUR (28)
€115m
SHU (27)
€110m
NOR (34)
€107m
HUL (27)
€105m
BIR (26)
€93m
SWA (27)
€91m
WAT (22)
€88m
MIL (29)
€85m
STK (25)
€79m
WRE (32)
€77m
QPR (28)
€71m
LEI (22)
€69m
BRC (25)
€66m
DER (25)
€57m
WBA (22)
€52m
PRE (20)
€43m
BLB (27)
€36m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
CAR (25)
€29m
LUT (26)
€29m
SHW (24)
€21m
OXF (24)
€20m
BOL (22)
€17m
HUD (26)
€16m
MKD (24)
€15m
PLY (25)
€13m
LIN (24)
€12m
BLA (22)
€11m
LO (23)
€10m
STO (25)
€10m
WYC (24)
€10m
REA (20)
€10m
SAL (26)
€8m
BAR (21)
€8m
WIG (21)
€7m
PET (23)
€7m
BRA (21)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
PV (23)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
NC (24)
€6m
CHE (24)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
BR (24)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
ROT (19)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
BRO (19)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
SHR (17)
€3m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
CHE (19)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
OLD (21)
€3m
FT (18)
€3m
ACC (18)
€2m
ROC (10)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
YOR (8)
€1m
QPR's squad is €14m less valuable than Millwall's (€71m vs €85m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (9)
€635m
CHE (13)
€614m
ARS (13)
€608m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
BOU (11)
€285m
NFO (9)
€263m
TOT (12)
€250m
NEW (7)
€234m
CRY (11)
€229m
BRE (10)
€228m
AVL (10)
€220m
BHA (9)
€190m
FUL (9)
€178m
EVE (7)
€174m
LEE (11)
€166m
SUN (9)
€157m
IPS (11)
€130m
COV (8)
€85m
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
MID (12)
€74m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
SWA (13)
€56m
NOR (10)
€46m
BIR (9)
€46m
STK (8)
€35m
MIL (10)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
SHU (9)
€29m
BRC (8)
€29m
WAT (6)
€28m
DER (8)
€25m
HUL (7)
€22m
LEI (7)
€20m
CHA (13)
€18m
PRE (6)
€17m
CAR (12)
€15m
BLB (8)
€15m
WRE (9)
€15m
WBA (7)
€15m
POR (12)
€13m
LUT (10)
€13m
SHW (6)
€7m
OXF (8)
€6m
MKD (8)
€5m
PLY (8)
€4m
LO (6)
€4m
BLA (8)
€4m
HUD (7)
€4m
BOL (6)
€4m
STO (8)
€3m
LIN (7)
€3m
REA (6)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
PET (8)
€3m
CHE (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
BR (10)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
WIG (8)
€2m
ROT (6)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
BUR (6)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
ACC (7)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
FT (6)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
SHR (3)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
QPR's attack is €1m less valuable than Millwall's (€29m vs €30m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (4)
€290m
TOT (7)
€282m
CHE (6)
€278m
MU (7)
€236m
LIV (6)
€201m
BHA (7)
€180m
EVE (7)
€162m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
BRE (7)
€128m
NEW (6)
€124m
SUN (6)
€110m
BOU (6)
€106m
LEE (5)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
WOL (6)
€79m
IPS (7)
€66m
SOU (5)
€53m
COV (6)
€52m
NFO (4)
€52m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
SHU (5)
€32m
NOR (11)
€31m
HUL (8)
€31m
MIL (8)
€29m
FUL (3)
€28m
MID (5)
€27m
WRE (9)
€23m
WBA (6)
€22m
BRC (6)
€19m
QPR (5)
€15m
DER (6)
€14m
LEI (4)
€13m
BIR (5)
€12m
STK (6)
€11m
SWA (4)
€9m
BUR (3)
€8m
MKD (6)
€7m
BLB (7)
€7m
SHW (5)
€6m
OXF (4)
€6m
POR (5)
€5m
LUT (6)
€4m
BOL (4)
€4m
HUD (6)
€4m
CAR (3)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
MAN (5)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
PRE (3)
€3m
REA (5)
€3m
STO (6)
€3m
BAR (7)
€3m
BLA (5)
€3m
PLY (6)
€3m
WIG (8)
€2m
WYC (5)
€2m
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
NC (7)
€2m
LIN (4)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BRO (6)
€1m
SHR (4)
€1m
CHE (6)
€1m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
FT (4)
€1m
ROT (5)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
ACC (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
BR (4)
€0m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
QPR's midfield is €14m less valuable than Millwall's (€15m vs €29m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
CHE (20)
€514m
ARS (12)
€508m
TOT (17)
€388m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
BHA (14)
€249m
NFO (15)
€236m
NEW (12)
€210m
BRE (15)
€209m
CRY (13)
€182m
BOU (14)
€182m
LEE (11)
€163m
AVL (11)
€156m
WHU (12)
€141m
SUN (15)
€125m
EVE (10)
€123m
FUL (9)
€123m
WOL (14)
€116m
COV (13)
€99m
IPS (13)
€85m
SOU (15)
€79m
HUL (12)
€52m
SHU (13)
€49m
MID (12)
€41m
WRE (14)
€39m
BUR (11)
€37m
LEI (11)
€36m
BIR (12)
€35m
STK (11)
€32m
NOR (13)
€29m
QPR (12)
€27m
SWA (10)
€26m
MIL (11)
€25m
PRE (11)
€22m
WAT (10)
€22m
BRC (11)
€18m
DER (11)
€18m
WBA (9)
€15m
POR (13)
€14m
BLB (12)
€14m
LUT (10)
€12m
CHA (13)
€10m
CAR (10)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
OXF (12)
€8m
SHW (13)
€8m
HUD (13)
€8m
LIN (13)
€6m
PLY (11)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
BLA (9)
€4m
STO (11)
€4m
REA (9)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
PV (11)
€3m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
DON (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
BAR (9)
€3m
WIG (5)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CAM (8)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
MAN (12)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
SHR (10)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
FT (8)
€1m
ACC (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
QPR's defence is €2m more valuable than Millwall's (€27m vs €25m).
England: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Championship stats & trends →
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Charlton
Wolves
Swansea
Southampton
Middlesbrough
West Brom
Watford
Birmingham
Blackburn
Bolton
Bristol City
Cardiff
Sheffield United
Norwich
Portsmouth
Lincoln
West Ham
Wrexham
Derby
Burnley
Preston
Stoke