PythiaFootballBETA
In this Scotland: League One match, Queen of the South's recent form has been unbeaten in their last 5, with a draw against Stenhousemuir their last outing. However, the overall shape of the match suggests a narrow home win, with the model predicting a 51% chance of Queen of the South taking the three points.
The model's selection is a home win, with a 51% probability, a 25% chance of a draw, and a 24% chance of Montrose claiming the win. The expected total number of goals is 3.0, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 11.8% probability.
At home, Queen of the South have averaged 1.69 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per match against similar opponents. Meanwhile, Montrose have averaged 1.17 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per match away against similar opponents. The model suggests Over 1.5 goals, with an 80.8% probability.
The model's selections include Over 1.5, with an 80.8% probability, and Home win, with a 51% probability. The home win percentage is 51%, the draw percentage is 25%, and the away win percentage is 24%.
In a stunning upset, Queen of the South drew 2-2 with Montrose, defying the pre-match favourite's expectations. The win extends their unbeaten run in their last 5 games, where they've drawn twice and won three times. The model's selection, a Home win, was wrong, with a pre-match probability of 51%. The model's call was incorrect as Montrose pulled off the surprise. The model's selection, Home win, was not the only one to miss out, as the suggested pick of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a probability of 80.8%. The most likely score was a 2-1 or 2-0 win for the home team, but neither materialized, with the actual result being a draw.
| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.50 | 1.33 | 1.60 | 1.07 | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (27) | 1.59 | 1.33 | 1.69 | 1.08 | 1.50 | 1.57 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 0.67 | 1.33 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-9pp vs league) | |||||
Montrose| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.40 | 1.80 | 1.60 | 1.87 | 1.20 | 1.73 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (21) | 1.52 | 1.76 | 1.73 | 1.91 | 1.30 | 1.60 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 1.11 | 1.89 | 1.25 | 1.75 | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 13% (-12pp vs league) | |||||
| Montrose goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 6.2% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 8.1% | 12% | 6.3% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| 2 | 8.3% | 9.7% | 5.7% | 2.2% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 5.0% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 2.3% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
Montrose| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.6 | 8.7 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 23.6 | 23.0 | 24.2 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (41) | 8.6 | 8.4 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 22.8 | 22.6 | 23.1 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 8.8 | 10.2 | 7.6 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 27.0 | 25.2 | 28.4 |
| % over line | 30% | 36% | 24% | 72% | 68% | 76% | 64% | 60% | 68% |
| % under line | 70% | 64% | 76% | 28% | 32% | 24% | 36% | 40% | 32% |
Montrose| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.6 | 8.6 | 8.6 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 22.0 | 21.5 | 22.5 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (30) | 8.1 | 8.0 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 23.6 | 23.6 | 23.5 |
| vs Weaker (20) | 9.2 | 9.4 | 9.0 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 19.7 | 18.4 | 21.0 |
| % over line | 30% | 32% | 28% | 60% | 60% | 60% | 54% | 52% | 56% |
| % under line | 70% | 68% | 72% | 40% | 40% | 40% | 46% | 48% | 44% |
| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.57 | 0.57 | 0.60 | 0.53 | 0.53 | 0.60 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (27) | 0.59 | 0.56 | 0.62 | 0.54 | 0.57 | 0.57 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 0.33 | 0.67 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
Montrose| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.63 | 0.67 | 0.80 | 0.67 | 0.47 | 0.67 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (21) | 0.76 | 0.62 | 0.91 | 0.64 | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 0.33 | 0.78 | 0.50 | 0.75 | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+21pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 fouls | 84.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 cards | 81.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 80.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 11.5 corners | 80.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 5.5 cards | 72.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 71.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 10.5 corners | 70.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/02/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 20/12/25 | H | 1-0 | |
| 27/09/25 | A | 2-1 | |
| 12/04/25 | H | 2-1 | |
| 22/02/25 | A | 0-3 | |
| 02/11/24 | H | 1-0 | |
| 24/08/24 | A | 1-0 | |
| 04/05/24 | A | 3-2 |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 27/03/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 07/03/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 28/02/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 21/02/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 14/02/26 | H | 1-2 |
Montrose| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 07/04/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 5-4 | |
| 07/03/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 03/03/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 28/02/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 21/02/26 | H | 3-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Inverness CT | 36 | 74 | 58% | 2.1 | 60 | 24 | +36 | 2.3 | 72% | 39% | 25% | 9.1 | 39% | 3.5 | 47% | 22.2 | 53% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 |  Stenhousemuir | 36 | 67 | 50% | 1.9 | 50 | 27 | +23 | 2.1 | 64% | 33% | 22% | 8.6 | 39% | 5.2 | 81% | 27.0 | 81% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 0.8 | - |
| 3 | H Hamilton | 36 | 55 | 44% | 1.5 | 54 | 42 | +12 | 2.7 | 75% | 58% | 33% | 9.7 | 44% | 3.2 | 42% | 20.4 | 39% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | - |
| 4 | QO Queen of Sth | 36 | 54 | 39% | 1.5 | 58 | 47 | +11 | 2.9 | 92% | 53% | 33% | 8.9 | 33% | 5.2 | 75% | 24.3 | 67% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | - |
| 5 | A Alloa | 36 | 53 | 42% | 1.5 | 50 | 38 | +12 | 2.4 | 67% | 44% | 22% | 9.4 | 42% | 4.5 | 61% | 23.4 | 64% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.1 | - |
| 6 |  Peterhead | 36 | 43 | 33% | 1.2 | 48 | 64 | -16 | 3.1 | 92% | 67% | 42% | 9.5 | 44% | 5.0 | 78% | 27.9 | 86% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.8 | - |
| 7 | Montrose | 36 | 42 | 31% | 1.2 | 48 | 67 | -19 | 3.2 | 89% | 61% | 39% | 8.6 | 31% | 3.7 | 61% | 23.7 | 69% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.9 | - |
| 8 |  Cove Rangers | 36 | 38 | 25% | 1.1 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 2.4 | 69% | 39% | 22% | 9.4 | 44% | 3.5 | 47% | 22.3 | 53% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.2 | - |
| 9 |  East Fife | 36 | 36 | 25% | 1.0 | 34 | 61 | -27 | 2.6 | 78% | 50% | 22% | 9.6 | 47% | 3.4 | 50% | 22.8 | 56% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 | 1.7 | - |
| 10 |  Kelty Hearts | 36 | 29 | 17% | 0.8 | 33 | 62 | -29 | 2.6 | 86% | 50% | 22% | 9.4 | 42% | 4.7 | 75% | 23.8 | 61% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 | 1.7 | - |
| 11 |  Hamilton Academical | 4 | 10 | 75% | 2.5 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 4.0 | 100% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | - |
| 12 |  Clyde | 4 | 5 | 25% | 1.2 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 3.2 | 100% | 25% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 13 |  Spartans | 2 | 1 | 0% | 0.5 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 2.0 | 100% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 1.5 | - |
| 14 |  Forfar | 2 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 3.5 | 100% | 100% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.5 | - |