Queen's Park are tipped to lift the trophy at home, with a 51% chance of victory, a 26% chance of a draw and a 23% chance of Arbroath taking the win. The model projects an average of 2.9 goals, but the most probable total is 2, with a 24% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 12.2% chance. Queen's Park have been scoring 1.15 and conceding 2.08 goals against similar opposition at home, while Arbroath are averaging 1.18 scored and 1.82 conceded on the road. Suggested picks include Under 25.5 fouls (92.1%), Under 5.5 cards (84.4%), Under 23.5 fouls (83.9%), Over 1.5 (79.5%) hit, Under 21.5 fouls (71.1%), Over 8.5 corners (71.1%) and Under 4.5 cards (70.6%). Queen's Park have recently drawn all five matches, coming off a 0-0 with Partick, while Arbroath are on a two-game winning streak, having beaten Livingston 1-0.
Results analysis
Queen's Park’s recent form, marked by a draw against Partick, set the stage for a decisive home outing. The Pythia model called a Home win with a 51% probability, and the result matched that prediction. The final score was a 6-0 triumph for Queen's Park, confirming the model’s favoured outcome. The model’s single suggested pick, Over 1.5 goals, hit with a 79.5% probability. All other selections were settled as indicated. The match delivered a dominant performance, with the home side’s victory aligning perfectly with the model’s expectations.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Queen's Park win✓ Hit
50.8%
Avg Implied 56.1% · @ 1.65
Edge
-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.7%
Avg Implied 24.2% · @ 3.82
Edge
+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Arbroath win✗ Miss
23.5%
Avg Implied 19.7% · @ 4.69
Edge
+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Queen's Park
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.97
1.14
2.21
1.44
1.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.30
2.00
1.15
2.08
1.43
1.93
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
1.67
1.00
4.00
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arbroath
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.77
1.07
1.40
1.00
2.13
vs Stronger (9)
1.00
2.00
1.40
1.20
0.50
3.00
vs Similar (21)
1.05
1.67
0.90
1.50
1.18
1.82
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Queen's Park) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.5%
Under 1.5
20.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
55.2%
@ 1.77+2.4%
Under 2.5
44.8%
@ 1.98-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
32.9%
Under 3.5
67.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
57.3%
No
42.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%
2-1
9.7%
1-0
8.6%
2-0
8.5%
0-0
6.7%
1-2
6.3%
3-1
5.7%
2-2
5.5%
Queen's Park goals ↓
Arbroath goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.7%
5.2%
3.6%
1.4%
0.4%
1
8.6%
12%
6.3%
2.4%
0.7%
2
8.5%
9.7%
5.5%
2.1%
0.6%
3
5.0%
5.7%
3.2%
1.2%
0.3%
4
2.2%
2.5%
1.4%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Queen's Park goals (down), columns = Arbroath goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Dundee Utd
2.10
Raith Rvs
1.92
Raith Rovers
1.92
Partick
1.46
Airdrie United
1.40
Morton
1.35
Ayr
1.22
Ayr Utd
1.22
Queens Park
1.19
Queen's Park
1.19
Inverness CT
1.17
Dunfermline
1.12
Arbroath
0.65
Alloa Athletic
0.50
Montrose
0.50
Queen's Park is 0.55 points better than Arbroath in terms of average points per game (1.19 vs 0.65).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Alloa Athletic
2.00
Dundee Utd
2.00
Partick
1.81
Raith Rvs
1.61
Raith Rovers
1.61
Ayr
1.47
Ayr Utd
1.47
Queens Park
1.39
Queen's Park
1.39
Airdrie United
1.21
Inverness CT
1.19
Morton
1.19
Dunfermline
1.12
Arbroath
0.92
Montrose
0.00
Queen's Park is 0.47 goals better than Arbroath in terms of goals scored per game (1.39 vs 0.92).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Montrose
0.50
Dundee Utd
0.62
Morton
1.10
Inverness CT
1.15
Raith Rvs
1.17
Raith Rovers
1.17
Airdrie United
1.23
Dunfermline
1.35
Partick
1.54
Queens Park
1.56
Queen's Park
1.56
Ayr
1.69
Ayr Utd
1.69
Hamilton Academical
1.75
Alloa Athletic
2.50
Arbroath
2.54
Queen's Park is 0.99 goals better than Arbroath in terms of goals conceded per game (1.56 vs 2.54).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Queen's Park
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Arbroath
For 3.7 · Against 7.6 · Total 11.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.6 · Against 9.3 · Total 18.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Queen's Park
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (44)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (6)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arbroath
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.5
11.1
12.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
20.8
21.7
19.8
vs Stronger (16)
11.2
11.4
11.0
1.8
1.9
1.7
20.9
21.2
20.3
vs Similar (34)
12.0
10.5
13.0
0.6
0.4
0.8
20.8
23.0
19.3
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
54%
57%
50%
16%
15%
17%
62%
71%
50%
% under line
46%
43%
50%
84%
85%
83%
38%
29%
50%
This opponent (Queen's Park) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Arbroath
11.1
Morton
10.9
Dundee Utd
10.9
Dunfermline
10.7
Queens Park
10.3
Ayr
10.3
Raith Rvs
10.2
Montrose
10.1
Partick
10.0
Inverness CT
10.0
Airdrie United
9.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Raith Rvs
4.3
Montrose
4.2
Morton
4.1
Dundee Utd
3.9
Arbroath
3.6
Dunfermline
3.6
Partick
3.4
Ayr
3.4
Queens Park
3.3
Airdrie United
3.3
Inverness CT
2.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Dundee Utd
22.2
Morton
22.0
Montrose
21.9
Arbroath
21.0
Partick
20.3
Dunfermline
19.7
Inverness CT
19.4
Raith Rvs
19.3
Queens Park
19.0
Ayr
19.0
Airdrie United
18.8
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
59.1%
Under 9.5
40.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
48.5%
Under 3.5
51.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
28.9%
Under 21.5
71.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Queen's Park
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.97
0.50
1.00
0.50
0.94
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.48
1.04
0.46
1.00
0.50
1.07
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.33
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arbroath
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.4
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.67
0.47
0.60
0.33
0.73
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
0.89
0.80
0.60
0.00
1.25
vs Similar (21)
0.38
0.57
0.30
0.60
0.45
0.55
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Queen's Park) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Queen's Park over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's Park over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's Park over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Queen's Park
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.00
0.64
1.21
0.94
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.81
0.96
0.69
1.08
0.93
0.86
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
1.33
0.00
3.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arbroath
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.10
0.60
0.80
0.67
1.40
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
1.11
0.60
0.60
0.50
1.75
vs Similar (21)
0.67
1.10
0.60
0.90
0.73
1.27
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Queen's Park) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Queen's Park over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's Park over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's Park over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 23.5 fouls
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 21.5 fouls
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 8.5 corners
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5 cards
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DU (22)
€11m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
AU (17)
€2m
QP (19)
€2m
RR (18)
€2m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
HA (5)
€0m
MON (4)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
Queen's Park's squad is €1m more valuable than Arbroath's (€2m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DU (7)
€4m
DUN (9)
€2m
PAR (6)
€1m
QP (8)
€1m
AU (6)
€1m
RR (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
HA (1)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
Queen's Park and Arbroath have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DU (6)
€3m
PAR (6)
€1m
RR (6)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
MON (2)
€0m
QP (1)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
Queen's Park and Arbroath have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DU (9)
€4m
DUN (13)
€2m
AU (10)
€1m
PAR (8)
€1m
QP (10)
€1m
RR (7)
€0m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
Queen's Park and Arbroath have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Scotland: Championship 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Dundee Utd
Partick
Raith Rovers
Airdrie United
Morton
Inverness CT
Dunfermline
Ayr Utd
Queens Park
Hamilton Academical
Alloa Athletic
Montrose