Queen's Park return to the home ground after a 0-0 draw, but the model still favors a Partick win at 43%. The predicted 4.0 average goals and a 22% chance of 6+ goals suggest a high-scoring affair, yet the most likely scoreline is 1-1 with an 8% probability. Queen's Park have scored 1.5 and conceded 1.93 goals against similar opponents at home, while Partick have a stronger away attack, scoring 2.5 and conceding 2.0 against comparable sides. The model’s edge lies in the away side’s higher offensive output, which outweighs the home side’s defensive solidity. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals at 91.7%, Over 8.5 corners at 78.6%, Over 2.5 cards at 77.6%, Under 25.5 fouls at 89.8%, Under 23.5 fouls at 80.3%, Under 5.5 cards at 76.9%, Over 2.5 at 76.4% with a 17% edge, and BTTS Yes at 75.5%. The home win probability is 35%, the draw 22%, and the away win 43%.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Partick, failed to deliver, as the match ended in a 2-2 draw. Queen's Park, coming off a draw, and Partick, also on a draw, both finished level, leaving the model’s prediction of an away win wrong. The model had given the away side a 43% chance of victory, but the result was a draw. The suggested picks all hit: Over 1.5 goals with a 91.7% probability, Over 2.5 goals at 76.4%, and BTTS Yes at 75.5%. The final score of 2-2 matched the model’s most likely score of 1-2, though the actual result was a draw.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Queen's Park win✗ Miss
34.8%
Avg Implied 30.3% · @ 3.04
Edge
+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
22.0%
Avg Implied 24.7% · @ 3.74
Edge
-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Partick win✗ Miss
43.2%
Avg Implied 45.0% · @ 2.05
Edge
-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Queen's Park
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
1.93
1.47
2.07
1.53
1.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.52
1.96
1.50
1.93
1.54
2.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
1.67
1.00
4.00
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Partick) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Partick
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.4
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.17
1.83
1.93
1.71
2.38
1.94
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
2.26
1.89
2.00
1.77
2.50
2.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
1.33
1.00
1.00
1.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
17% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Queen's Park) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
91.7%
Under 1.5
8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
76.4%
@ 1.57+17.0%
Under 2.5
23.6%
@ 2.30-17.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
56.9%
Under 3.5
43.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
75.5%
No
24.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
8.0%
1-2
7.7%
2-2 ✓
7.3%
2-1
6.9%
1-3
5.4%
2-3
5.1%
3-2
4.6%
3-1
4.4%
Queen's Park goals ↓
Partick goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.5%
3.1%
4.0%
2.9%
1.5%
1
2.7%
8.0%
7.7%
5.4%
2.9%
2
3.3%
6.9%
7.3%
5.1%
2.7%
3
2.1%
4.4%
4.6%
3.3%
1.7%
4
1.0%
2.1%
2.2%
1.5%
0.8%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Queen's Park goals (down), columns = Partick goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Dundee Utd
2.10
Raith Rvs
1.92
Raith Rovers
1.92
Partick
1.46
Airdrie United
1.40
Morton
1.35
Ayr
1.22
Ayr Utd
1.22
Queens Park
1.19
Queen's Park
1.19
Inverness CT
1.17
Dunfermline
1.12
Arbroath
0.65
Alloa Athletic
0.50
Montrose
0.50
Queen's Park is 0.26 points worse than Partick in terms of average points per game (1.19 vs 1.46).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Alloa Athletic
2.00
Dundee Utd
2.00
Partick
1.81
Raith Rvs
1.61
Raith Rovers
1.61
Ayr
1.47
Ayr Utd
1.47
Queens Park
1.39
Queen's Park
1.39
Airdrie United
1.21
Inverness CT
1.19
Morton
1.19
Dunfermline
1.12
Arbroath
0.92
Montrose
0.00
Queen's Park is 0.42 goals worse than Partick in terms of goals scored per game (1.39 vs 1.81).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Montrose
0.50
Dundee Utd
0.62
Morton
1.10
Inverness CT
1.15
Raith Rvs
1.17
Raith Rovers
1.17
Airdrie United
1.23
Dunfermline
1.35
Partick
1.54
Queens Park
1.56
Queen's Park
1.56
Ayr
1.69
Ayr Utd
1.69
Hamilton Academical
1.75
Alloa Athletic
2.50
Arbroath
2.54
Queen's Park is 0.01 goals worse than Partick in terms of goals conceded per game (1.56 vs 1.54).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Queen's Park
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Partick
For 6.0 · Against 6.2 · Total 12.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.2 · Against 10.7 · Total 19.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Queen's Park
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (45)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (5)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Partick) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Partick
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.7
9.0
14.3
1.0
0.7
1.2
19.9
20.5
19.3
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (47)
11.7
9.0
14.3
1.0
0.7
1.3
19.9
20.5
19.3
vs Weaker (3)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
75%
50%
100%
10%
4%
16%
33%
33%
33%
% under line
25%
50%
0%
90%
96%
84%
67%
67%
67%
This opponent (Queen's Park) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Arbroath
11.0
Morton
10.9
Dundee Utd
10.9
Dunfermline
10.8
Ayr
10.4
Queens Park
10.2
Raith Rvs
10.1
Airdrie United
10.0
Partick
10.0
Montrose
10.0
Inverness CT
10.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Raith Rvs
4.3
Montrose
4.2
Morton
4.1
Dundee Utd
3.9
Dunfermline
3.6
Arbroath
3.6
Partick
3.4
Ayr
3.4
Airdrie United
3.3
Queens Park
3.3
Inverness CT
2.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Dundee Utd
22.2
Morton
22.1
Montrose
22.0
Arbroath
21.0
Partick
20.4
Dunfermline
19.7
Raith Rvs
19.4
Inverness CT
19.4
Ayr
19.2
Queens Park
18.7
Airdrie United
18.6
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
68.2%
Under 9.5
31.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
58.6%
Under 3.5
41.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
33.6%
Under 21.5
66.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Queen's Park
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.93
0.67
0.93
0.53
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.59
1.00
0.64
0.93
0.54
1.08
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.33
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Partick) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Partick
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.80
1.00
0.79
0.69
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.89
0.81
1.00
0.77
0.79
0.86
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Queen's Park) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Queen's Park over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's Park over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's Park over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partick over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partick over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partick over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Queen's Park
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.00
0.80
1.13
1.00
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.93
0.96
0.86
1.00
1.00
0.92
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
1.33
0.00
3.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Partick) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Partick
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.03
0.93
0.93
1.69
1.12
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.37
1.07
1.00
1.00
1.71
1.14
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
0.00
0.00
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Queen's Park) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Queen's Park over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's Park over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen's Park over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partick over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partick over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Partick over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
91.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 23.5 fouls
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 8.5 corners
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
76.4%
1.57
-
-
-
-
-
+17.0%
✓ Hit
BTTS Yes
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DU (22)
€11m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
AU (17)
€2m
QP (19)
€2m
RR (18)
€2m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
HA (5)
€0m
MON (4)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
Queen's Park's squad is €1m less valuable than Partick's (€2m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DU (7)
€4m
DUN (9)
€2m
PAR (6)
€1m
QP (8)
€1m
AU (6)
€1m
RR (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
HA (1)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
Queen's Park and Partick have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DU (6)
€3m
PAR (6)
€1m
RR (6)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
MON (2)
€0m
QP (1)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
Queen's Park and Partick have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DU (9)
€4m
DUN (13)
€2m
AU (10)
€1m
PAR (8)
€1m
QP (10)
€1m
RR (7)
€0m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
Queen's Park and Partick have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Scotland: Championship 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →