This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arbroath
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.7
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.03
1.30
1.87
1.53
2.20
1.07
vs Stronger (7)
2.00
1.57
2.67
2.00
1.50
1.25
vs Similar (11)
2.00
1.45
2.43
1.71
1.25
1.00
vs Weaker (12)
2.08
1.00
0.60
1.00
3.14
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Queens Park) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.8%
Under 1.5
12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
68.8%
Under 2.5
31.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
47.4%
Under 3.5
52.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
66.4%
No
33.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
9.4%
1-1
9.3%
0-2 â
7.1%
1-3
7.0%
2-2
6.3%
2-1
5.6%
0-1
5.5%
0-3
5.3%
Queens Park goals ↓
Arbroath goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.7%
5.5%
7.1%
5.3%
2.9%
1
3.0%
9.3%
9.4%
7.0%
3.9%
2
2.5%
5.6%
6.3%
4.6%
2.6%
3
1.1%
2.5%
2.8%
2.0%
1.1%
4
0.4%
0.8%
0.9%
0.7%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Queens Park goals (down), columns = Arbroath goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Ayr
2.11
Raith Rvs
2.08
Alloa
1.67
Arbroath
1.64
Stranraer
1.47
East Fife
1.17
Airdrie United
1.14
Forfar
1.06
Queens Park
0.86
Albion Rvs
0.83
Queens Park is 0.78 points worse than Arbroath in terms of average points per game (0.86 vs 1.64).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ayr
2.56
Arbroath
1.94
Raith Rvs
1.89
Stranraer
1.61
Albion Rvs
1.58
Alloa
1.56
East Fife
1.36
Airdrie United
1.28
Queens Park
1.17
Forfar
1.11
Queens Park is 0.78 goals worse than Arbroath in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 1.94).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Raith Rvs
0.89
Ayr
1.17
Alloa
1.19
Arbroath
1.42
Airdrie United
1.67
Forfar
1.81
Stranraer
1.83
East Fife
1.86
Queens Park
2.00
Albion Rvs
2.22
Queens Park is 0.58 goals worse than Arbroath in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.42).
âąïļ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Queens Park
For 6.0 · Against 4.9 · Total 10.9
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.6
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.3 · Against 11.6 · Total 20.9
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Arbroath
For 6.4 · Against 4.1 · Total 10.5
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.1
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.4 · Against 11.0 · Total 20.4
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Queens Park
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.7
10.0
11.3
0.8
0.8
0.9
20.6
17.8
23.3
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (37)
9.9
9.0
10.6
0.8
0.7
1.0
21.0
17.8
23.6
vs Weaker (13)
13.0
12.0
15.0
0.8
1.0
0.5
19.3
18.0
22.0
% over line
67%
67%
67%
10%
8%
12%
42%
17%
67%
% under line
33%
33%
33%
90%
92%
88%
58%
83%
33%
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arbroath
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
9.3
11.2
0.7
0.7
0.7
20.2
19.7
20.8
vs Stronger (10)
10.6
7.0
13.0
1.1
0.8
1.4
18.8
15.5
21.0
vs Similar (18)
10.4
10.5
10.0
0.9
1.3
0.5
21.2
21.8
19.0
vs Weaker (22)
9.0
-
9.0
0.3
0.0
0.5
21.5
-
21.5
% over line
50%
33%
67%
10%
8%
12%
33%
33%
33%
% under line
50%
67%
33%
90%
92%
88%
67%
67%
67%
This opponent (Queens Park) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Raith Rvs
11.8
Albion Rvs
11.8
Forfar
11.6
Ayr
11.5
Queens Park
10.7
Arbroath
10.2
Airdrie United
10.1
Stranraer
9.7
Alloa
9.4
East Fife
9.3
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Stranraer
4.7
Ayr
3.7
Raith Rvs
3.6
Queens Park
3.4
Forfar
3.2
Albion Rvs
3.2
East Fife
3.0
Airdrie United
3.0
Arbroath
2.8
Alloa
2.6
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Stranraer
24.7
East Fife
24.3
Raith Rvs
23.2
Forfar
22.6
Airdrie United
21.5
Albion Rvs
21.1
Alloa
20.8
Ayr
20.8
Queens Park
20.6
Arbroath
20.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
58.8%
Under 9.5
41.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
41.3%
Under 3.5
58.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
40.5%
Under 21.5
59.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Queens Park
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.83
0.53
0.80
0.40
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.48
0.87
0.64
0.82
0.33
0.92
vs Weaker (7)
0.43
0.71
0.25
0.75
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arbroath
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.60
0.73
0.73
1.00
0.47
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
0.86
1.33
0.67
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (11)
0.73
0.64
0.71
1.00
0.75
0.00
vs Weaker (12)
1.00
0.42
0.40
0.40
1.43
0.43
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Queens Park) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Queens Park over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queens Park over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queens Park over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Queens Park
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
1.07
0.47
1.13
0.47
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.48
1.17
0.45
1.27
0.50
1.08
vs Weaker (7)
0.43
0.71
0.50
0.75
0.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arbroath
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.70
1.13
0.80
1.20
0.60
vs Stronger (7)
1.14
0.71
1.33
1.33
1.00
0.25
vs Similar (11)
1.27
0.82
1.71
0.71
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (12)
1.08
0.58
0.20
0.60
1.71
0.57
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Queens Park) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Queens Park over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queens Park over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queens Park over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 1.5
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 4.5 cards
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 8.5 corners
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Scotland: League One 2017/18 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League One stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Stranraer
East Fife
Airdrie United
Forfar