Racing Santander’s recent 0-1 loss to Getafe leaves them looking to rebound, while Elche, after a 0-5 defeat to Barcelona, will aim to avoid another low point. The model sees a 53 % chance of a home win, 24 % for a draw and 23 % for an away win, making a Racing victory the most likely outcome. The expected goal total sits at 3.2, with the single most probable scoreline 1-1 at 10.8 %. Racing’s home form shows an impressive 3.0 average goals scored and only 0.83 conceded against similar opposition, whereas Elche’s away numbers are 1.0 scored and 1.73 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 at 95.5 %, Over 19.5 fouls at 92.8 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 91.1 %, Under 6.5 at 90.1 %, Home over 0.5 goals at 89.1 % with a 14 % edge, Over 2.5 cards at 88.6 %, Home +2 handicap at 85.8 % with a 3 % edge, and Over 21.5 fouls at 85.0 %. All probabilities are expressed as percentages.
Results analysis
The win extends Racing Santander’s recent run, with a 3-2 victory over Elche that confirmed the model’s predicted home win. The Pythia model had chosen a home win with a 53% probability, and it proved correct. The most likely scoreline of 3 goals was also right, as the match ended 3-2. Every suggested selection hit: Under 7.5 goals at 95.4% confidence, Over 19.5 fouls at 93.0%, Away under 3.5 goals at 92.3%, Home over 0.5 goals at 90.2%, Under 6.5 at 89.9%, Over 2.5 cards at 88.8%, Home +2 handicap at 87.9%, and Over 21.5 fouls at 85.4%. The model’s predictions were largely accurate, delivering a solid performance for the forecasting engine.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Racing Santander win✓ Hit
53.0%
Avg Implied 45.9% · @ 2.07
Edge
+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.15
10Bet
2.12
Unibet
2.10
William Hil
2.10
Marathonbet
2.08
Draw✗ Miss
23.8%
Avg Implied 27.2% · @ 3.50
Edge
-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.66
Marathonbet
3.64
1xBet
3.62
Bet365
3.60
Dafabet
3.60
Elche win✗ Miss
23.2%
Avg Implied 27.0% · @ 3.53
Edge
-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.70
1xBet
3.64
Marathonbet
3.64
Betfair
3.60
Bet365
3.60
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Racing Santander
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
1.47
2.47
1.53
1.33
1.40
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
1.67
1.33
1.67
-
-
vs Similar (17)
1.94
1.18
3.00
1.12
1.00
1.22
vs Weaker (10)
2.00
1.90
2.25
2.25
1.83
1.67
Clean sheet %
13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Elche) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Elche
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.67
1.62
1.46
1.00
1.82
vs Stronger (8)
1.12
3.00
1.25
3.25
1.00
2.75
vs Similar (21)
1.33
1.19
1.78
0.67
1.00
1.58
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Racing Santander) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.2%
@ 1.22+7.0%
Under 1.5
15.8%
@ 4.12-7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.26
Betano
1.24
BetVictor
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Under
Superbet
4.45
Betfair
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Unibet
4.30
Marathonbet
4.25
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
62.5%
@ 1.71+6.7%
Under 2.5
37.5%
@ 2.15-6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.83
1xBet
1.78
Betano
1.72
SBO
1.71
Pinnacle
1.70
Under
Pinnacle
2.27
Marathonbet
2.20
1xBet
2.20
SBO
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
40.2%
@ 2.69+5.3%
Under 3.5
59.8%
@ 1.45-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.00
Bet365
2.75
Betfair
2.70
Betano
2.70
Unibet
2.70
Under
Pinnacle
1.51
Betano
1.50
Superbet
1.48
Unibet
1.44
Betfair
1.44
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
62.5%
@ 1.57+3.1%
No
37.5%
@ 2.29-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
10Bet
1.65
Superbet
1.58
Betano
1.57
William Hil
1.57
Bet365
1.57
No
Betfair
2.38
Superbet
2.35
Betano
2.32
Unibet
2.30
William Hil
2.30
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.8%@ 6.48+3.8%
2-1
9.7%@ 8.16+4.1%
2-0
7.7%@ 10.86+3.5%
1-0
6.9%@ 8.61+1.6%
3-1
6.3%@ 14.19+3.1%
1-2
6.2%@ 10.98+2.0%
2-2
6.1%@ 11.10+2.0%
3-0
5.1%@ 18.25+2.6%
Racing Santander goals ↓
Elche goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.0%
4.0%
3.1%
1.3%
0.4%
1
6.9%
11%
6.2%
2.6%
0.8%
2
7.7%
9.7%
6.1%
2.5%
0.8%
3
5.1%
6.3%
4.0%
1.7%
0.5%
4
2.5%
3.1%
2.0%
0.8%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Racing Santander goals (down), columns = Elche goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barcelona
2.47
Real Madrid
2.26
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.82
Real Betis
1.58
Celta Vigo
1.42
Getafe
1.34
Rayo Vallecano
1.32
Valencia
1.29
Real Sociedad
1.21
Espanyol
1.21
Athletic Club
1.18
Sevilla
1.13
Elche
1.13
Alaves
1.13
Levante
1.11
Osasuna
1.11
Malaga
1.10
Racing Santander
1.10
Deportivo La Coruna
1.08
Racing Santander is 0.03 points worse than Elche in terms of average points per game (1.10 vs 1.13).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barcelona
2.50
Real Madrid
2.03
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.63
Real Sociedad
1.55
Real Betis
1.55
Celta Vigo
1.39
Elche
1.29
Levante
1.24
Sevilla
1.21
Valencia
1.21
Osasuna
1.16
Alaves
1.16
Athletic Club
1.13
Espanyol
1.13
Rayo Vallecano
1.08
Malaga
1.08
Racing Santander
1.08
Deportivo La Coruna
1.06
Getafe
0.84
Racing Santander is 0.21 goals worse than Elche in terms of goals scored per game (1.08 vs 1.29).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Real Madrid
0.92
Barcelona
0.95
Getafe
1.00
Atletico Madrid
1.16
Rayo Vallecano
1.16
Villarreal
1.21
Real Betis
1.26
Celta Vigo
1.26
Osasuna
1.32
Valencia
1.45
Espanyol
1.45
Alaves
1.47
Elche
1.50
Athletic Club
1.53
Sevilla
1.58
Levante
1.61
Real Sociedad
1.61
Malaga
1.69
Racing Santander
1.69
Deportivo La Coruna
1.72
Racing Santander is 0.19 goals worse than Elche in terms of goals conceded per game (1.69 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Barcelona
69%
Real Madrid
59%
Elche
58%
Rayo Vallecano
53%
Atletico Madrid
53%
Real Sociedad
51%
Sevilla
51%
Celta Vigo
50%
Real Betis
50%
Athletic Club
49%
Alaves
48%
Valencia
48%
Osasuna
47%
Villarreal
45%
Levante
43%
Espanyol
42%
Getafe
40%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Racing Santander
For 6.2 · Against 4.0 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.9 · Against 2.9 · Total 5.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.4 · Against 14.9 · Total 29.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Elche
For 4.3 · Against 3.8 · Total 8.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.6 · Against 15.6 · Total 30.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Racing Santander
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.7
11.7
9.7
6.1
5.4
6.8
26.6
25.4
27.8
vs Stronger (3)
13.7
13.7
-
6.0
6.0
-
24.0
24.0
-
vs Similar (25)
10.3
10.5
10.1
6.6
5.1
8.0
27.6
24.9
30.2
vs Weaker (22)
10.8
12.5
9.1
5.6
5.7
5.5
25.8
26.5
25.1
% over line
65%
76%
52%
86%
76%
96%
84%
84%
83%
% under line
35%
24%
48%
14%
24%
4%
16%
16%
17%
This opponent (Elche) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Elche
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.1
8.5
7.8
4.5
4.5
4.5
28.1
26.6
29.3
vs Stronger (13)
8.5
8.6
8.5
3.9
4.3
3.5
25.3
24.6
26.2
vs Similar (34)
8.0
8.5
7.6
4.9
4.7
5.1
29.1
27.6
30.3
vs Weaker (3)
7.0
-
7.0
3.0
-
3.0
31.0
-
31.0
% over line
33%
41%
27%
70%
68%
71%
90%
82%
96%
% under line
67%
59%
73%
30%
32%
29%
10%
18%
4%
This opponent (Racing Santander) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Rayo Vallecano
10.8
Atletico Madrid
10.8
Barcelona
10.8
Racing Santander
10.6
Real Madrid
10.6
Alaves
10.5
Real Sociedad
10.2
Levante
10.0
Valencia
9.8
Espanyol
9.7
Athletic Club
9.7
Sevilla
9.3
Osasuna
9.1
Deportivo La Coruna
9.1
Villarreal
9.1
Malaga
9.0
Real Betis
8.9
Getafe
8.8
Elche
8.2
Celta Vigo
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Racing Santander
6.4
Rayo Vallecano
5.7
Getafe
5.5
Malaga
5.3
Sevilla
5.3
Deportivo La Coruna
5.1
Real Sociedad
5.0
Real Madrid
4.9
Alaves
4.9
Espanyol
4.9
Osasuna
4.8
Elche
4.7
Celta Vigo
4.7
Real Betis
4.7
Levante
4.7
Athletic Club
4.7
Valencia
4.6
Villarreal
4.4
Barcelona
4.4
Atletico Madrid
4.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Getafe
29.3
Alaves
28.9
Elche
27.9
Sevilla
27.6
Racing Santander
26.8
Real Sociedad
26.3
Espanyol
25.9
Rayo Vallecano
25.8
Athletic Club
25.3
Celta Vigo
25.0
Osasuna
24.9
Malaga
24.8
Levante
24.6
Villarreal
24.6
Valencia
24.2
Real Madrid
23.9
Deportivo La Coruna
23.6
Real Betis
23.5
Barcelona
21.8
Atletico Madrid
20.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
50.4%
@ 1.87+0.4%
Under 9.5
49.6%
@ 1.87-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.00
Superbet
1.92
1xBet
1.92
Marathonbet
1.92
Betano
1.88
Under
10Bet
1.95
Bet365
1.91
Betfair
1.91
Unibet
1.88
Betano
1.85
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
75.6%
@ 1.43+10.5%
Under 3.5
24.4%
@ 2.67-10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.47
Superbet
1.44
Pinnacle
1.40
Betano
1.40
Under
Pinnacle
2.87
Betano
2.80
Superbet
2.57
Unibet
2.43
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
85.4%
Under 21.5
14.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Racing Santander or Draw✓ Hit
74.6%
Avg Implied 72.8% · @ 1.29
Edge
+1.9%
53%
24%
23%
covers Racing Santander + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.31
William Hil
1.30
Racing Santander or Elche✓ Hit
78.8%
Avg Implied 73.4% · @ 1.28
Edge
+5.3%
53%
24%
23%
covers Racing Santander + Elche
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
Superbet
1.31
William Hil
1.30
Unibet
1.30
Draw or Elche✗ Miss
46.6%
Avg Implied 53.8% · @ 1.75
Edge
-7.2%
53%
24%
23%
covers Draw + Elche
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Marathonbet
1.80
1xBet
1.78
Betano
1.78
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Racing Santander over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
90.2%
@ 1.17+10.5%
Under
9.8%
@ 4.59-10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Betano
1.19
1xBet
1.17
Under
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.00
BetVictor
4.75
Superbet
4.75
Pinnacle
4.61
Racing Santander over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
67.3%
@ 1.86+17.2%
Under
32.7%
@ 1.88-17.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.88
Unibet
1.86
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Under
Pinnacle
2.00
Marathonbet
1.93
1xBet
1.93
Superbet
1.92
Betano
1.88
Racing Santander over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
40.9%
@ 3.77+16.1%
Under
59.1%
@ 1.24-16.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.20
Betfair
4.00
BetVictor
3.80
1xBet
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Under
Pinnacle
1.29
Superbet
1.27
Betano
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.25
Racing Santander over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
20.4%
@ 8.29+9.2%
Under
79.6%
@ 1.05-9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
9.00
1xBet
8.90
Marathonbet
8.40
Unibet
8.00
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Unibet
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Elche over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
79.5%
@ 1.32+8.7%
Under
20.5%
@ 3.19-8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Superbet
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
Under
Pinnacle
3.40
Betfair
3.30
Bet365
3.25
Betano
3.20
BetVictor
3.20
Elche over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
47.1%
@ 2.57+10.7%
Under
52.9%
@ 1.47-10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.69
10Bet
2.65
Bet365
2.62
Marathonbet
2.60
Superbet
2.55
Under
1xBet
1.51
Pinnacle
1.50
Betano
1.50
Marathonbet
1.49
Superbet
1.48
Elche over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
21.3%
@ 6.27+6.4%
Under
78.7%
@ 1.10-6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.00
Marathonbet
6.55
Bet365
6.50
10Bet
6.50
1xBet
6.40
Under
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Unibet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
Elche over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.7%
@ 14.92+1.3%
Under
92.3%
@ 1.02-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Racing Santander, so a minus line means Racing Santander give that many goals of a start and Elche receive them. At -1, Racing Santander must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Racing Santander win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Racing Santander)Actual: Elche
Racing Santander -2
17.7%
@ 7.83+6.1%
Draw -2
16.0%
@ 5.92+0.7%
Elche +2
66.3%
@ 1.24-6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
8.50
10Bet
8.50
Bet365
8.00
Unibet
7.50
Superbet
7.30
Draw
Marathonbet
6.20
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Superbet
5.80
10Bet
5.75
Away
Superbet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Unibet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
10Bet
1.20
Handicap -1 (Racing Santander)Actual: Draw
Racing Santander -1
33.7%
@ 3.68+9.1%
Draw -1
19.7%
@ 3.87-3.6%
Elche +1
46.6%
@ 1.74-5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
3.95
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.75
Unibet
3.60
Superbet
3.55
Draw
Marathonbet
4.05
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Unibet
3.80
10Bet
3.75
Away
Marathonbet
1.80
Superbet
1.78
Bet365
1.73
Betfair
1.73
Unibet
1.70
Handicap +1 (Racing Santander)Actual: Racing Santander
Racing Santander +1
74.6%
@ 1.29+4.4%
Draw +1
13.3%
@ 5.19-4.2%
Elche -1
12.1%
@ 7.40-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.32
Superbet
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Unibet
1.28
Draw
Superbet
5.50
Marathonbet
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.00
Unibet
4.90
Away
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
8.00
Marathonbet
7.40
Unibet
7.00
10Bet
7.00
Handicap +2 (Racing Santander)Actual: Racing Santander
Racing Santander +2
87.9%
@ 1.07+2.4%
Draw +2
7.5%
@ 9.75-1.9%
Elche -2
4.6%
@ 17.75-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.08
Unibet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Betfair
1.05
Draw
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
11.00
Unibet
9.00
10Bet
8.00
Away
Betfair
21.00
Bet365
19.00
10Bet
17.00
Unibet
14.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Racing Santander
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.57
1.00
0.73
0.80
0.40
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
0.67
1.33
0.67
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.76
0.53
1.25
0.62
0.33
0.44
vs Weaker (10)
1.00
0.60
0.25
1.00
1.50
0.33
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Elche) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Elche
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.67
0.69
0.69
0.47
0.65
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
1.75
1.00
2.00
0.25
1.50
vs Similar (21)
0.57
0.29
0.56
0.11
0.58
0.42
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Racing Santander) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.38
Betano
1.38
1xBet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.35
Under
Superbet
3.40
Betfair
3.30
William Hil
3.30
Bet365
3.25
Pinnacle
3.23
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.65
Bet365
2.62
Betano
2.60
SBO
2.58
1xBet
2.57
Under
Superbet
1.55
Pinnacle
1.53
Marathonbet
1.52
SBO
1.51
1xBet
1.50
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
10Bet
6.25
1xBet
6.20
Under
Superbet
1.14
Betano
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Unibet
1.10
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Racing Santander over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.85
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.81
Pinnacle
1.80
Marathonbet
1.78
Under
Pinnacle
2.03
Superbet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.93
Betano
1.93
Unibet
1.93
Racing Santander over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
5.50
1xBet
5.35
Marathonbet
5.15
Unibet
4.90
Betano
4.70
Under
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
Unibet
1.12
Racing Santander over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Elche over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.25
Pinnacle
2.25
Betano
2.22
Marathonbet
2.19
1xBet
2.19
Under
Pinnacle
1.66
Superbet
1.64
Betano
1.62
10Bet
1.60
Marathonbet
1.60
Elche over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.10
Marathonbet
8.00
10Bet
7.00
Betano
6.90
Superbet
6.80
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.07
Unibet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
Elche over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
24.00
Betano
13.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Racing Santander
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.90
1.47
0.80
0.53
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (17)
1.18
0.65
1.75
0.50
0.67
0.78
vs Weaker (10)
1.00
1.30
2.00
1.25
0.33
1.33
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Elche) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Elche
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.00
0.92
0.77
0.53
1.18
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
1.25
0.25
1.25
0.75
1.25
vs Similar (21)
0.76
0.90
1.22
0.56
0.42
1.17
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Racing Santander) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Under
Marathonbet
4.75
1xBet
4.65
Superbet
4.60
Bet365
4.50
Betano
4.45
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.95
1xBet
1.92
Superbet
1.92
10Bet
1.91
Marathonbet
1.90
Under
Marathonbet
1.93
1xBet
1.91
Betano
1.91
Superbet
1.88
Bet365
1.83
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.00
Superbet
3.90
1xBet
3.84
10Bet
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Under
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.24
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Racing Santander over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.63
Betano
1.53
1xBet
1.52
Superbet
1.52
Under
Betano
2.40
1xBet
2.40
Superbet
2.35
Marathonbet
2.14
Racing Santander over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.75
Superbet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.48
1xBet
3.40
Betano
3.35
Under
Betano
1.29
1xBet
1.26
Superbet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
10Bet
1.22
Racing Santander over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.70
Superbet
9.10
Betano
7.70
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Elche over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.81
Superbet
1.80
Betano
1.78
Under
Betano
1.98
Superbet
1.92
1xBet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.89
Elche over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.40
1xBet
5.20
10Bet
5.00
Superbet
5.00
Betano
4.70
Under
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.13
Superbet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Elche over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
16.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
92.3%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-1.3%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
90.2%
1.17
Marathonbet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Betano
1.19
1xBet
1.17
+10.5%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
89.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-4.7%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
88.8%
1.17
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.16
-
-
-
+9.8%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
87.9%
1.07
Bet365
1.08
Unibet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Betfair
1.05
-
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
84.2%
1.22
10Bet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.26
Betano
1.24
BetVictor
1.24
Bet365
1.22
+7.0%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
80.0%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Unibet
1.04
-10.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
79.6%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Unibet
1.05
1xBet
1.04
-9.2%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
79.5%
1.32
Bet365
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Superbet
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
+8.7%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
78.8%
1.28
1xBet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
Superbet
1.31
William Hil
1.30
Unibet
1.30
+5.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
78.7%
1.10
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Unibet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
-6.4%
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
75.6%
1.43
Unibet
1.47
Superbet
1.44
Pinnacle
1.40
Betano
1.40
-
+10.5%
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
74.6%
1.29
1xBet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.31
William Hil
1.30
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
74.6%
1.29
Marathonbet
1.32
Superbet
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Unibet
1.28
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
74.1%
1.33
1xBet
1.33
-
-
-
-
+6.4%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
73.0%
1.29
Superbet
1.35
Unibet
1.33
Betfair
1.30
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.25
+2.2%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Racing Santander
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Andrés Martín33%
Yassir Zabiri33%
Sergio Canales0%
Iñigo Vicente0%
Asier Villalibre0%
Manu Hernando0%
Alvaro Mantilla0%
Julen Agirrezabala0%
Facundo González0%
Gustavo Puerta0%
Maguette Gueye0%
Jorge Salinas0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Alvaro Mantilla67%
Manu Hernando33%
Facundo González33%
Gustavo Puerta33%
Jorge Salinas33%
Sergio Canales0%
Andrés Martín0%
Iñigo Vicente0%
Asier Villalibre0%
Julen Agirrezabala0%
Maguette Gueye0%
Yassir Zabiri0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Iñigo Vicente33%
Sergio Canales0%
Andrés Martín0%
Asier Villalibre0%
Manu Hernando0%
Alvaro Mantilla0%
Julen Agirrezabala0%
Facundo González0%
Gustavo Puerta0%
Maguette Gueye0%
Yassir Zabiri0%
Jorge Salinas0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Andrés Martín67%
Sergio Canales33%
Yassir Zabiri33%
Iñigo Vicente0%
Asier Villalibre0%
Manu Hernando0%
Alvaro Mantilla0%
Julen Agirrezabala0%
Facundo González0%
Gustavo Puerta0%
Maguette Gueye0%
Jorge Salinas0%
Elche
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Fernando Niño33%
Marc Aguado33%
Buba Sangaré33%
Matías Dituro0%
Gonzalo Villar0%
Tete Morente0%
David Affengruber0%
Germán Valera0%
Víctor Chust0%
Lucas Cepeda0%
Ali Houary0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Gonzalo Villar33%
Ali Houary33%
Matías Dituro0%
Tete Morente0%
David Affengruber0%
Germán Valera0%
Víctor Chust0%
Fernando Niño0%
Marc Aguado0%
Lucas Cepeda0%
Buba Sangaré0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Gonzalo Villar33%
Tete Morente33%
Lucas Cepeda33%
Matías Dituro0%
David Affengruber0%
Germán Valera0%
Víctor Chust0%
Fernando Niño0%
Marc Aguado0%
Buba Sangaré0%
Ali Houary0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Fernando Niño33%
Matías Dituro0%
Gonzalo Villar0%
Tete Morente0%
David Affengruber0%
Germán Valera0%
Víctor Chust0%
Marc Aguado0%
Lucas Cepeda0%
Buba Sangaré0%
Ali Houary0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (27)
€1456m
BAR (30)
€1282m
AM (25)
€653m
VIL (24)
€325m
RS (24)
€247m
AC (29)
€241m
RB (25)
€235m
CV (24)
€163m
SEV (25)
€134m
VAL (27)
€125m
ESP (24)
€119m
GET (24)
€90m
LEV (26)
€89m
RS (20)
€89m
DLC (29)
€84m
ELC (27)
€79m
RV (23)
€76m
OSA (22)
€71m
ALA (25)
€68m
MAL (27)
€41m
Racing Santander's squad is €10m more valuable than Elche's (€89m vs €79m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (10)
€842m
BAR (10)
€590m
AM (9)
€290m
RB (10)
€131m
VIL (8)
€124m
RS (10)
€110m
AC (10)
€106m
CV (9)
€57m
LEV (10)
€51m
DLC (9)
€49m
SEV (8)
€45m
VAL (10)
€40m
ESP (9)
€39m
GET (5)
€36m
ELC (13)
€34m
RS (7)
€34m
RV (10)
€30m
MAL (11)
€26m
OSA (8)
€25m
ALA (8)
€24m
Racing Santander and Elche have a similar attack value (both €34m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (8)
€324m
RM (5)
€238m
AM (6)
€155m
RS (5)
€58m
AC (7)
€57m
VIL (4)
€52m
VAL (5)
€46m
CV (3)
€35m
RB (5)
€33m
ESP (5)
€31m
GET (6)
€28m
RS (5)
€28m
SEV (5)
€23m
ALA (8)
€22m
LEV (5)
€16m
DLC (7)
€13m
OSA (4)
€12m
ELC (5)
€12m
RV (4)
€9m
MAL (5)
€6m
Racing Santander's midfield is €16m more valuable than Elche's (€28m vs €12m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (12)
€377m
BAR (12)
€368m
AM (10)
€208m
VIL (12)
€148m
RS (9)
€79m
AC (12)
€77m
CV (12)
€71m
RB (10)
€70m
SEV (12)
€65m
ESP (10)
€48m
VAL (12)
€39m
RV (9)
€36m
OSA (10)
€33m
ELC (9)
€33m
RS (8)
€28m
GET (13)
€26m
DLC (13)
€22m
LEV (11)
€22m
ALA (9)
€22m
MAL (11)
€9m
Racing Santander's defence is €5m less valuable than Elche's (€28m vs €33m).
Spain: La Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: La Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Barcelona
Real Madrid
Atletico Madrid
Alaves
Osasuna
Sevilla
Real Betis
Deportivo La Coruna
Levante
Real Sociedad
Espanyol
Athletic Club
Getafe
Villarreal
Celta Vigo
Valencia
Rayo Vallecano
Malaga