Raith Rovers enter the match after a shaky start, having lost their opening game and now looking to rebound, while Arbroath are riding a two-game winning streak and have recently beaten Livingston 1-0. The model favours a home win at 60%, with a draw at 21% and an away win at 19%. The expected total goals is 3.6, pointing to a 3-goal game, and the single most likely scoreline is 2-1 for Raith Rovers, with a 9.4% chance. Raith Rovers have been prolific at home, scoring 2.23 goals per game and conceding 1.46 against similar opposition, whereas Arbroath have struggled away, scoring only 1.22 and conceding 1.44. Suggested picks include Under 25.5 fouls at 92.0%, Over 1.5 goals at 88.6% (hit), Under 5.5 cards at 83.8%, Under 23.5 fouls at 83.8%, Over 8.5 corners at 80.1%, Under 21.5 fouls at 71.1%, Over 2.5 goals at 70.5% (edge 12%) and Over 2.5 cards at 70.4%.
Results analysis
Raith Rovers’ home form had been shaky, coming off a defeat, yet the model still tipped a home win at 60%. The match ended 2-2, a draw that left the favourite wrong. The predicted 3-goal total was not met, but both suggested picks - Over 1.5 (88.6%) and Over 2.5 (70.5%) - hit, confirming the game’s high-scoring nature. Arbroath, on a two-game winning run, secured the draw, while Raith Rovers’ 2-2 result extended their recent mixed run. The model’s call was incorrect, but its other selections proved accurate.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Raith Rovers win✗ Miss
60.1%
Avg Implied 66.5% · @ 1.39
Edge
-6.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
20.7%
Avg Implied 19.8% · @ 4.67
Edge
+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Arbroath win✗ Miss
19.2%
Avg Implied 13.8% · @ 6.71
Edge
+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Raith Rovers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.33
2.14
1.36
1.19
1.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.70
1.37
2.23
1.46
1.21
1.29
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arbroath
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.47
1.06
1.22
1.00
1.83
vs Stronger (10)
1.00
1.70
1.29
1.14
0.33
3.00
vs Similar (20)
1.05
1.35
0.91
1.27
1.22
1.44
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Raith Rovers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
88.6%
Under 1.5
11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
70.5%
@ 1.59+11.7%
Under 2.5
29.5%
@ 2.27-11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
49.4%
Under 3.5
50.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
66.4%
No
33.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.4%
1-1
8.8%
3-1
7.3%
2-0
7.2%
2-2 ✓
6.0%
3-0
5.7%
1-0
5.4%
1-2
5.1%
Raith Rovers goals ↓
Arbroath goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.4%
2.6%
2.2%
0.9%
0.3%
1
5.4%
8.8%
5.1%
2.2%
0.7%
2
7.2%
9.4%
6.0%
2.6%
0.8%
3
5.7%
7.3%
4.7%
2.0%
0.7%
4
3.3%
4.3%
2.8%
1.2%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Raith Rovers goals (down), columns = Arbroath goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Dundee Utd
2.10
Raith Rvs
1.92
Raith Rovers
1.92
Partick
1.46
Airdrie United
1.40
Morton
1.35
Ayr
1.22
Ayr Utd
1.22
Queens Park
1.19
Queen's Park
1.19
Inverness CT
1.17
Dunfermline
1.12
Arbroath
0.65
Alloa Athletic
0.50
Montrose
0.50
Raith Rovers is 1.27 points better than Arbroath in terms of average points per game (1.92 vs 0.65).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Alloa Athletic
2.00
Dundee Utd
2.00
Partick
1.81
Raith Rvs
1.61
Raith Rovers
1.61
Ayr
1.47
Ayr Utd
1.47
Queens Park
1.39
Queen's Park
1.39
Airdrie United
1.21
Inverness CT
1.19
Morton
1.19
Dunfermline
1.12
Arbroath
0.92
Montrose
0.00
Raith Rovers is 0.69 goals better than Arbroath in terms of goals scored per game (1.61 vs 0.92).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Montrose
0.50
Dundee Utd
0.62
Morton
1.10
Inverness CT
1.15
Raith Rvs
1.17
Raith Rovers
1.17
Airdrie United
1.23
Dunfermline
1.35
Partick
1.54
Queens Park
1.56
Queen's Park
1.56
Ayr
1.69
Ayr Utd
1.69
Hamilton Academical
1.75
Alloa Athletic
2.50
Arbroath
2.54
Raith Rovers is 1.37 goals better than Arbroath in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 2.54).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Raith Rovers
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Arbroath
For 4.3 · Against 7.6 · Total 11.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.1 · Against 10.7 · Total 21.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Raith Rovers
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (44)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (6)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arbroath
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.8
11.6
12.2
1.1
1.1
1.0
20.5
22.3
18.5
vs Stronger (15)
11.9
12.2
11.3
1.8
2.0
1.6
20.7
23.0
17.7
vs Similar (35)
11.8
10.7
13.0
0.8
0.7
0.8
20.3
21.3
19.3
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
62%
71%
50%
18%
19%
17%
54%
71%
33%
% under line
38%
29%
50%
82%
81%
83%
46%
29%
67%
This opponent (Raith Rovers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Queens Park
11.5
Arbroath
11.2
Morton
11.1
Dunfermline
10.8
Dundee Utd
10.7
Ayr
10.7
Montrose
10.3
Inverness CT
10.1
Partick
10.0
Raith Rvs
10.0
Airdrie United
9.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Montrose
4.3
Raith Rvs
4.1
Morton
4.1
Dundee Utd
3.8
Arbroath
3.7
Dunfermline
3.6
Partick
3.4
Airdrie United
3.2
Ayr
3.1
Queens Park
3.1
Inverness CT
2.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Montrose
23.3
Dundee Utd
22.4
Morton
21.8
Arbroath
21.3
Partick
20.4
Dunfermline
19.5
Raith Rvs
19.5
Inverness CT
19.2
Ayr
18.6
Queens Park
18.3
Airdrie United
18.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
70.0%
Under 9.5
30.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
49.4%
Under 3.5
50.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
28.9%
Under 21.5
71.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Raith Rovers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.40
0.93
0.21
0.44
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.74
0.37
1.00
0.23
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (3)
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arbroath
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.73
0.50
0.67
0.42
0.83
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
1.10
0.71
0.86
0.00
1.67
vs Similar (20)
0.45
0.55
0.36
0.55
0.56
0.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Raith Rovers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Raith Rovers over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raith Rovers over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raith Rovers over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Raith Rovers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.93
1.21
1.14
0.75
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.96
1.00
1.23
1.23
0.71
0.79
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Arbroath) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arbroath
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.73
0.56
0.56
0.58
1.00
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
0.60
0.57
0.29
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (20)
0.60
0.80
0.55
0.73
0.67
0.89
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Raith Rovers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Raith Rovers over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raith Rovers over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raith Rovers over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arbroath over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 23.5 fouls
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 8.5 corners
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 21.5 fouls
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
70.5%
1.59
-
-
-
-
-
+11.7%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 9.5 corners
70.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DU (22)
€11m
DUN (26)
€4m
PAR (20)
€3m
AU (17)
€2m
QP (19)
€2m
RR (18)
€2m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
HA (5)
€0m
MON (4)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
Raith Rovers's squad is €1m more valuable than Arbroath's (€2m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DU (7)
€4m
DUN (9)
€2m
PAR (6)
€1m
QP (8)
€1m
AU (6)
€1m
RR (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
HA (1)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
Raith Rovers and Arbroath have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DU (6)
€3m
PAR (6)
€1m
RR (6)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
MON (2)
€0m
QP (1)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
Raith Rovers and Arbroath have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DU (9)
€4m
DUN (13)
€2m
AU (10)
€1m
PAR (8)
€1m
QP (10)
€1m
RR (7)
€0m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
Raith Rovers and Arbroath have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: Championship 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Dundee Utd
Partick
Airdrie United
Morton
Inverness CT
Dunfermline
Ayr Utd
Queens Park
Queen's Park
Hamilton Academical
Alloa Athletic
Montrose