Raków Czestochowa are the clear favourites, with a 42% chance of victory, a 29% chance of a draw and a 29% chance of a Gornik Zabrze win. The model’s pick is a home win and the expected total goals hover at 2.5, most likely yielding a 2-goal match. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.8% probability. Raków, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.17 goals scored and 1.83 conceded, while Gornik, on the road, averages 1.25 scored and 1.0 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.8%), Under 6.5 (98.5%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.5%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.2%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.4%) and Under 5.5 (95.5%). Raków come off a defeat, while Gornik are after three straight losses. The match is likely to be low-scoring and favour the home side.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Gornik Zabrze snatched a 2-1 victory over Raków Czestochowa, extending their winning run after a recent win. The pre-match favourite, Home win, carried a 42% probability, but the model’s call proved wrong. The final score of 1-2 confirmed the away win. Every model selection was settled: Under 7.5 hit at 99.5%, Under 6.5 hit at 98.5%, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.2%, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 97.6%, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 97.2%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.1%, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 95.9%, and Under 5.5 hit at 95.5%. All probabilities were expressed as percentages and each pick was noted once.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Raków Częstochowa win✗ Miss
42.1%
Avg Implied 37.7% · @ 2.46
Edge
+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.60
Bet365
2.60
Pinnacle
2.60
Unibet
2.55
Marathonbet
2.53
Draw✗ Miss
28.9%
Avg Implied 27.5% · @ 3.38
Edge
+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.62
10Bet
3.55
Betfair
3.50
Unibet
3.45
Dafabet
3.45
Gornik Zabrze win✓ Hit
28.9%
Avg Implied 34.8% · @ 2.67
Edge
-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
3.10
SBO
2.80
Betfair
2.75
Dafabet
2.70
10Bet
2.68
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Raków Częstochowa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.40
1.57
1.29
1.25
1.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.20
1.73
1.17
1.83
1.22
1.67
vs Weaker (15)
1.60
1.07
1.88
0.88
1.29
1.29
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Gornik Zabrze) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gornik Zabrze
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.20
1.80
1.20
1.13
1.20
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
2.00
1.33
1.67
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (24)
1.58
1.04
1.92
1.08
1.25
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Raków Częstochowa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.4%
@ 1.21-3.8%
Under 1.5
26.6%
@ 4.08+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.23
Pinnacle
1.22
10Bet
1.22
BetVictor
1.20
Under
Pinnacle
4.41
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.33
10Bet
4.20
BetVictor
4.10
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
46.7%
@ 1.72-7.9%
Under 2.5
53.3%
@ 2.07+7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.77
Betano
1.75
Superbet
1.75
Pinnacle
1.74
Betfair
1.73
Under
Pinnacle
2.16
10Bet
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Bet365
2.10
1xBet
2.08
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.1%
@ 2.74-8.7%
Under 3.5
74.9%
@ 1.41+8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.87
Superbet
2.80
10Bet
2.80
Unibet
2.75
Under
Bet365
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
10Bet
1.42
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.40
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.5%
@ 1.57-6.6%
No
47.5%
@ 2.26+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
10Bet
1.60
Superbet
1.60
Betfair
1.57
Betano
1.57
Unibet
1.57
No
Betfair
2.38
BetVictor
2.30
1xBet
2.28
Marathonbet
2.26
10Bet
2.25
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%@ 6.25+6.6%
1-0
9.9%@ 9.22+5.0%
0-0
9.1%@ 11.56+5.2%
2-1
8.9%@ 8.72+3.7%
2-0
7.8%@ 12.56+4.2%
0-1
7.6%@ 9.65+3.0%
1-2 ✓
7.1%@ 9.30+2.3%
0-2
5.0%@ 14.01+1.8%
Raków Częstochowa goals ↓
Gornik Zabrze goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.1%
7.6%
5.0%
1.9%
0.5%
1
9.9%
14%
7.1%
2.7%
0.8%
2
7.8%
8.9%
5.0%
1.9%
0.5%
3
3.7%
4.2%
2.4%
0.9%
0.3%
4
1.3%
1.5%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Raków Częstochowa goals (down), columns = Gornik Zabrze goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lech Poznan
2.60
Gornik Zabrze
2.40
Legia Warszawa
2.00
GKS Katowice
1.80
Jagiellonia
1.80
Wisla Krakow
1.67
Pogon Szczecin
1.60
Zaglebie Lubin
1.60
Korona Kielce
1.60
Cracovia Krakow
1.33
Piast Gliwice
1.17
Radomiak Radom
1.17
Widzew Łódź
1.00
Slask Wroclaw
1.00
Motor Lublin
0.83
Wisla Plock
0.80
Wieczysta Kraków
0.60
Raków Częstochowa
0.00
Raków Częstochowa is 2.40 points worse than Gornik Zabrze in terms of average points per game (0.00 vs 2.40).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
GKS Katowice
2.40
Gornik Zabrze
2.20
Wisla Krakow
2.00
Lech Poznan
2.00
Legia Warszawa
2.00
Jagiellonia
1.80
Piast Gliwice
1.67
Widzew Łódź
1.67
Wieczysta Kraków
1.60
Pogon Szczecin
1.40
Slask Wroclaw
1.33
Raków Częstochowa
1.20
Korona Kielce
1.20
Radomiak Radom
1.00
Motor Lublin
1.00
Zaglebie Lubin
1.00
Cracovia Krakow
1.00
Wisla Plock
0.60
Raków Częstochowa is 1.00 goals worse than Gornik Zabrze in terms of goals scored per game (1.20 vs 2.20).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Legia Warszawa
0.67
Pogon Szczecin
0.80
Zaglebie Lubin
0.80
Korona Kielce
0.80
Lech Poznan
0.80
Cracovia Krakow
1.17
GKS Katowice
1.20
Gornik Zabrze
1.40
Jagiellonia
1.40
Slask Wroclaw
1.50
Wisla Krakow
1.67
Motor Lublin
1.67
Widzew Łódź
1.67
Wisla Plock
2.00
Piast Gliwice
2.17
Radomiak Radom
2.17
Wieczysta Kraków
2.40
Raków Częstochowa
2.60
Raków Częstochowa is 1.20 goals worse than Gornik Zabrze in terms of goals conceded per game (2.60 vs 1.40).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Jagiellonia
58%
Piast Gliwice
56%
Wieczysta Kraków
54%
Lech Poznan
54%
Gornik Zabrze
53%
Raków Częstochowa
53%
Wisla Plock
52%
Legia Warszawa
52%
Wisla Krakow
52%
Radomiak Radom
50%
GKS Katowice
48%
Cracovia Krakow
48%
Korona Kielce
48%
Slask Wroclaw
47%
Zaglebie Lubin
47%
Widzew Łódź
46%
Motor Lublin
46%
Pogon Szczecin
41%
Raków Częstochowa and Gornik Zabrze are level in average possession (both 53%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Raków Częstochowa
For 3.6 · Against 5.8 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.6 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.9 · Against 14.4 · Total 24.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Gornik Zabrze
For 6.3 · Against 4.3 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.5 · Against 12.9 · Total 23.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Raków Częstochowa
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.1
7.8
8.6
4.0
3.7
4.3
24.5
24.7
24.3
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
8.7
8.5
8.9
4.1
4.0
4.2
24.5
24.7
24.2
vs Weaker (26)
7.6
7.0
8.3
3.8
3.4
4.4
24.6
24.8
24.4
% over line
33%
25%
43%
58%
50%
67%
76%
79%
71%
% under line
67%
75%
57%
42%
50%
33%
24%
21%
29%
This opponent (Gornik Zabrze) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gornik Zabrze
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.9
9.4
3.3
3.6
3.0
22.7
23.0
22.2
vs Stronger (5)
10.0
13.5
6.5
3.2
4.3
1.5
22.8
25.5
20.0
vs Similar (42)
10.2
10.7
9.6
3.4
3.4
3.3
22.6
22.6
22.5
vs Weaker (3)
10.5
9.0
12.0
2.3
6.0
0.5
24.0
27.0
21.0
% over line
53%
61%
45%
42%
48%
36%
56%
52%
60%
% under line
47%
39%
55%
58%
52%
64%
44%
48%
40%
This opponent (Raków Częstochowa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Wisla Krakow
10.7
Wieczysta Kraków
10.4
Pogon Szczecin
10.3
Lech Poznan
10.3
Zaglebie Lubin
10.2
Slask Wroclaw
10.2
Radomiak Radom
10.2
Korona Kielce
10.2
Gornik Zabrze
10.1
Motor Lublin
10.1
Cracovia Krakow
10.1
Piast Gliwice
10.0
GKS Katowice
9.9
Wisla Plock
9.7
Jagiellonia
9.4
Widzew Łódź
9.2
Legia Warszawa
9.1
Raków Częstochowa
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Widzew Łódź
5.2
Radomiak Radom
5.0
Motor Lublin
4.8
Raków Częstochowa
4.7
Slask Wroclaw
4.6
Zaglebie Lubin
4.6
Jagiellonia
4.6
Cracovia Krakow
4.4
Legia Warszawa
4.3
Pogon Szczecin
4.1
Gornik Zabrze
4.0
Wisla Plock
4.0
Lech Poznan
3.9
Korona Kielce
3.9
Wisla Krakow
3.7
GKS Katowice
3.7
Piast Gliwice
3.6
Wieczysta Kraków
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Radomiak Radom
27.9
Wieczysta Kraków
26.6
Jagiellonia
26.6
Widzew Łódź
26.4
Legia Warszawa
25.9
Wisla Krakow
25.7
Korona Kielce
25.6
Cracovia Krakow
25.3
Motor Lublin
25.2
Raków Częstochowa
24.9
Zaglebie Lubin
24.7
Slask Wroclaw
24.6
Piast Gliwice
24.2
Lech Poznan
24.1
Pogon Szczecin
23.7
GKS Katowice
23.7
Gornik Zabrze
22.8
Wisla Plock
22.8
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
38.2%
@ 1.81-13.2%
Under 9.5
61.8%
@ 1.92+13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.97
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.87
Pinnacle
1.80
1xBet
1.78
Under
Pinnacle
2.00
Unibet
1.98
1xBet
1.97
10Bet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.94
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
54.6%
@ 1.48-7.3%
Under 3.5
45.4%
@ 2.40+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.48
Under
Superbet
2.40
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
71.0%
Under 21.5
29.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Raków Częstochowa or Draw✗ Miss
71.1%
Avg Implied 65.7% · @ 1.42
Edge
+5.4%
42%
29%
29%
covers Raków Częstochowa + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.50
Marathonbet
1.46
1xBet
1.45
BetVictor
1.45
10Bet
1.45
Raków Częstochowa or Gornik Zabrze✓ Hit
71.1%
Avg Implied 73.1% · @ 1.28
Edge
-2.0%
42%
29%
29%
covers Raków Częstochowa + Gornik Zabrze
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.31
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Draw or Gornik Zabrze✓ Hit
57.9%
Avg Implied 61.2% · @ 1.52
Edge
-3.3%
42%
29%
29%
covers Draw + Gornik Zabrze
Best 5 market prices
SBO
1.66
Superbet
1.60
Betfair
1.57
10Bet
1.55
Betano
1.53
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Raków Częstochowa over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
75.6%
@ 1.22-0.2%
Under
24.4%
@ 3.84+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.26
Pinnacle
1.24
Unibet
1.23
BetVictor
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Under
Pinnacle
4.06
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.80
Raków Częstochowa over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
41.2%
@ 2.13-2.6%
Under
58.8%
@ 1.66+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.25
1xBet
2.17
Marathonbet
2.16
BetVictor
2.15
Betano
2.15
Under
Superbet
1.72
10Bet
1.67
Betfair
1.67
Pinnacle
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Raków Częstochowa over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
16.9%
@ 4.52-3.6%
Under
83.1%
@ 1.17+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
4.80
1xBet
4.75
Marathonbet
4.70
10Bet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Under
Pinnacle
1.21
Superbet
1.19
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Raków Częstochowa over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.5%
@ 10.03-3.9%
Under
94.5%
@ 1.04+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
1xBet
9.70
Betfair
9.50
Superbet
9.20
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Gornik Zabrze over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
67.7%
@ 1.25-6.8%
Under
32.3%
@ 3.64+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.30
Betano
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Under
Pinnacle
4.13
BetVictor
3.80
Bet365
3.75
1xBet
3.74
Marathonbet
3.64
Gornik Zabrze over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
31.2%
@ 2.23-10.6%
Under
68.8%
@ 1.60+10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.45
10Bet
2.25
Betfair
2.25
Pinnacle
2.24
Betano
2.22
Under
Pinnacle
1.68
Marathonbet
1.63
1xBet
1.63
Bet365
1.62
BetVictor
1.62
Gornik Zabrze over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
10.6%
@ 5.03-7.9%
Under
89.4%
@ 1.14+7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
5.55
Betfair
5.50
10Bet
5.00
Bet365
5.00
1xBet
4.85
Under
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.16
Marathonbet
1.14
10Bet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Gornik Zabrze over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.8%
@ 12.08-5.0%
Under
97.2%
@ 1.03+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
Bet365
13.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Bet365
1.04
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Raków Częstochowa, so a minus line means Raków Częstochowa give that many goals of a start and Gornik Zabrze receive them. At -1, Raków Częstochowa must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Raków Częstochowa win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
This opponent (Gornik Zabrze) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gornik Zabrze
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.47
0.87
0.40
0.67
0.53
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.80
0.67
0.67
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.83
0.38
0.92
0.33
0.75
0.42
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Raków Częstochowa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
67.9%
@ 1.33-1.9%
Under 0.5
32.1%
@ 3.08+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.39
Unibet
1.34
Pinnacle
1.34
BetVictor
1.34
Superbet
1.33
Under
Betfair
3.30
Pinnacle
3.25
Bet365
3.25
William Hil
3.10
10Bet
3.10
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
32.3%
@ 2.50-4.8%
Under 1.5
67.7%
@ 1.47+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.62
Betfair
2.55
Pinnacle
2.55
William Hil
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Under
Pinnacle
1.52
Bet365
1.50
BetVictor
1.49
10Bet
1.48
Superbet
1.47
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
10.8%
@ 5.86-5.0%
Under 2.5
89.2%
@ 1.10+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.80
1xBet
5.80
William Hil
5.80
Under
Betano
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Superbet
1.10
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Raków Częstochowa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
45.7%
@ 1.93-2.6%
Under
54.3%
@ 1.80+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.00
Pinnacle
1.98
Marathonbet
1.94
1xBet
1.91
10Bet
1.90
Under
Superbet
1.85
10Bet
1.83
Pinnacle
1.83
1xBet
1.80
Unibet
1.77
Raków Częstochowa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
12.1%
@ 5.70-4.2%
Under
87.9%
@ 1.11+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.20
1xBet
6.00
Betano
5.60
10Bet
5.50
Superbet
5.20
Under
Superbet
1.13
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.09
Raków Częstochowa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.4%
@ 13.75-4.4%
Under
97.6%
@ 1.01+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
16.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Gornik Zabrze over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
42.0%
@ 2.02-4.1%
Under
58.0%
@ 1.73+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.12
1xBet
2.10
Betano
2.05
10Bet
2.00
Pinnacle
1.99
Under
Pinnacle
1.82
10Bet
1.75
Marathonbet
1.74
Unibet
1.74
Betano
1.72
Gornik Zabrze over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
12.0%
@ 6.31-2.7%
Under
88.0%
@ 1.09+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
6.60
1xBet
6.50
Marathonbet
6.30
10Bet
6.25
Betano
5.90
Under
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Gornik Zabrze over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.8%
@ 17.50-3.7%
Under
98.2%
@ 1.02+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
23.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Raków Częstochowa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.90
1.14
0.79
0.56
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.67
1.07
0.83
1.17
0.56
1.00
vs Weaker (15)
1.00
0.73
1.38
0.50
0.57
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Gornik Zabrze) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gornik Zabrze
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.73
0.93
0.80
0.47
0.67
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.20
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (24)
0.75
0.67
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.58
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Raków Częstochowa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
76.5%
@ 1.18-1.8%
Under 0.5
23.5%
@ 4.27+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Under
Bet365
4.50
10Bet
4.33
Marathonbet
4.33
Betano
4.30
1xBet
4.30
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
43.2%
@ 1.90-5.6%
Under 1.5
56.8%
@ 1.80+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.95
William Hil
1.95
Unibet
1.91
Betano
1.91
Marathonbet
1.90
Under
Betano
1.85
Marathonbet
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Bet365
1.83
10Bet
1.83
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
15.9%
@ 3.75-8.8%
Under 2.5
84.1%
@ 1.23+8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.90
William Hil
3.80
10Bet
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Betano
3.70
Under
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.22
10Bet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Raków Częstochowa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
54.3%
@ 1.65-2.0%
Under
45.7%
@ 2.12+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.67
1xBet
1.65
Superbet
1.62
Under
Superbet
2.17
Betano
2.12
1xBet
2.08
Raków Częstochowa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
18.5%
@ 4.13-4.0%
Under
81.5%
@ 1.20+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.33
Marathonbet
4.30
10Bet
4.00
Betano
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Under
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Raków Częstochowa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.1%
@ 10.62-4.8%
Under
95.9%
@ 1.03+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
Gornik Zabrze over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
46.3%
@ 1.70-8.1%
Under
53.7%
@ 2.03+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.68
Betano
1.67
1xBet
1.66
Under
Betano
2.12
1xBet
2.06
Marathonbet
2.03
Superbet
1.92
Gornik Zabrze over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
13.8%
@ 4.43-7.2%
Under
86.2%
@ 1.17+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
4.90
1xBet
4.40
Marathonbet
4.40
10Bet
4.33
Betano
4.10
Under
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
Superbet
1.14
Gornik Zabrze over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.9%
@ 12.25-4.8%
Under
97.1%
@ 1.02+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
15.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.01
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.5%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.2%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.6%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.2%
1.03
Bet365
1.04
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.1%
1.02
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.9%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.5%
1.04
Bet365
1.06
Betano
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Superbet
1.04
BetVictor
1.02
+5.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
94.5%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.04
1xBet
1.01
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
89.4%
1.14
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.16
Marathonbet
1.14
10Bet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
+7.9%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.2%
1.10
Betano
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Superbet
1.10
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
88.6%
1.14
Pinnacle
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
+6.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.0%
1.09
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
+2.7%
✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap
88.0%
1.12
Unibet
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.11
Bet365
1.10
-
+8.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.9%
1.11
Superbet
1.13
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.09
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
86.2%
1.17
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
Superbet
1.14
+7.2%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
84.1%
1.23
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.22
10Bet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
+8.8%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
83.1%
1.17
Pinnacle
1.21
Superbet
1.19
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.17
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
82.5%
1.32
Unibet
1.37
1xBet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.31
Betano
1.30
Superbet
1.30
+13.3%
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
81.5%
1.20
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
80.1%
1.34
Superbet
1.34
-
-
-
-
+12.3%
-
Away +2 handicap
79.3%
1.17
Superbet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Betfair
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Unibet
1.14
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.5%
1.18
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.18
-1.8%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
75.6%
1.22
Betano
1.26
Pinnacle
1.24
Unibet
1.23
BetVictor
1.22
1xBet
1.22
-0.2%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
74.9%
1.41
Bet365
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
10Bet
1.42
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.40
+8.7%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
73.4%
1.21
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.23
Pinnacle
1.22
10Bet
1.22
BetVictor
1.20
-3.8%
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
73.3%
1.56
Pinnacle
1.61
Unibet
1.61
1xBet
1.57
Marathonbet
1.55
Betano
1.52
+14.0%
-
Home or Draw
71.1%
1.42
Betano
1.50
Marathonbet
1.46
1xBet
1.45
BetVictor
1.45
10Bet
1.45
+5.4%
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
71.1%
1.41
Marathonbet
1.46
10Bet
1.45
Unibet
1.44
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.35
+7.5%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
71.1%
1.28
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.31
William Hil
1.30
Superbet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
-2.0%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Raków Częstochowa
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Mahir Emreli60%
Patryk Makuch40%
Mohamed Lamine Diaby33%
Erick Otieno0%
Fran Tudor0%
Oskar Repka0%
Wladyslaw Kocherhin0%
Jean Carlos Silva0%
Karol Struski0%
Michael Ameyaw0%
Bogdan Racovițan0%
Kacper Trelowski0%
Didí Gaucho0%
Tomasz Pieńko0%
Ádin Molnár0%
Oliwier Kwiatkowski0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Didí Gaucho67%
Fran Tudor33%
Karol Struski33%
Michael Ameyaw25%
Mahir Emreli20%
Bogdan Racovițan20%
Erick Otieno0%
Patryk Makuch0%
Oskar Repka0%
Wladyslaw Kocherhin0%
Mohamed Lamine Diaby0%
Jean Carlos Silva0%
Kacper Trelowski0%
Tomasz Pieńko0%
Ádin Molnár0%
Oliwier Kwiatkowski0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mahir Emreli20%
Wladyslaw Kocherhin20%
Jean Carlos Silva20%
Erick Otieno0%
Fran Tudor0%
Patryk Makuch0%
Oskar Repka0%
Mohamed Lamine Diaby0%
Karol Struski0%
Michael Ameyaw0%
Bogdan Racovițan0%
Kacper Trelowski0%
Didí Gaucho0%
Tomasz Pieńko0%
Ádin Molnár0%
Oliwier Kwiatkowski0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mahir Emreli60%
Patryk Makuch20%
Erick Otieno0%
Fran Tudor0%
Oskar Repka0%
Wladyslaw Kocherhin0%
Mohamed Lamine Diaby0%
Jean Carlos Silva0%
Karol Struski0%
Michael Ameyaw0%
Bogdan Racovițan0%
Kacper Trelowski0%
Didí Gaucho0%
Tomasz Pieńko0%
Ádin Molnár0%
Oliwier Kwiatkowski0%
Gornik Zabrze
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Janis Antiste33%
Kacper Urbański29%
Yvan Ikia Dimi20%
Sondre Liseth17%
Josema17%
Michal Sáček17%
Erik Prekop17%
Peter González17%
Lukáš Sadílek14%
Maksym Khlan14%
Erik Janža0%
Paweł Bochniewicz0%
Rafał Janicki0%
Taofeek Ismaheel0%
Ondřej Zmrzlý0%
Paulo Bernardo0%
Maximilian Dietz0%
Philipp Schulze0%
Patryk Warczak0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Maximilian Dietz43%
Erik Janža40%
Sondre Liseth33%
Josema33%
Peter González33%
Rafał Janicki14%
Lukáš Sadílek14%
Philipp Schulze14%
Maksym Khlan14%
Paweł Bochniewicz0%
Taofeek Ismaheel0%
Michal Sáček0%
Ondřej Zmrzlý0%
Erik Prekop0%
Paulo Bernardo0%
Kacper Urbański0%
Janis Antiste0%
Patryk Warczak0%
Yvan Ikia Dimi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Josema33%
Erik Janža20%
Paulo Bernardo20%
Erik Prekop17%
Rafał Janicki14%
Sondre Liseth0%
Paweł Bochniewicz0%
Taofeek Ismaheel0%
Michal Sáček0%
Lukáš Sadílek0%
Ondřej Zmrzlý0%
Kacper Urbański0%
Janis Antiste0%
Maximilian Dietz0%
Philipp Schulze0%
Maksym Khlan0%
Peter González0%
Patryk Warczak0%
Yvan Ikia Dimi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Maksym Khlan57%
Peter González17%
Erik Janža0%
Sondre Liseth0%
Paweł Bochniewicz0%
Rafał Janicki0%
Josema0%
Taofeek Ismaheel0%
Michal Sáček0%
Lukáš Sadílek0%
Ondřej Zmrzlý0%
Erik Prekop0%
Paulo Bernardo0%
Kacper Urbański0%
Janis Antiste0%
Maximilian Dietz0%
Philipp Schulze0%
Patryk Warczak0%
Yvan Ikia Dimi0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LP (25)
€58m
WŁ (29)
€43m
RC (27)
€33m
JAG (26)
€30m
GZ (27)
€29m
CK (26)
€21m
LW (25)
€20m
PS (27)
€20m
ZL (28)
€19m
ML (20)
€19m
KK (23)
€16m
WK (24)
€13m
GK (26)
€13m
WP (25)
€12m
WK (22)
€12m
RR (25)
€11m
PG (22)
€9m
SW (22)
€7m
Raków Częstochowa's squad is €4m more valuable than Gornik Zabrze's (€33m vs €29m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WŁ (13)
€21m
LP (10)
€21m
GZ (13)
€17m
JAG (11)
€12m
CK (12)
€11m
ZL (11)
€10m
LW (12)
€10m
ML (10)
€10m
RC (9)
€9m
PS (13)
€8m
WK (8)
€6m
WK (8)
€5m
RR (9)
€4m
PG (11)
€4m
WP (7)
€4m
KK (7)
€3m
GK (7)
€3m
SW (5)
€2m
Raków Częstochowa's attack is €8m less valuable than Gornik Zabrze's (€9m vs €17m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RC (12)
€14m
LP (3)
€9m
KK (8)
€7m
WŁ (5)
€7m
GZ (4)
€6m
GK (10)
€6m
LW (7)
€4m
ZL (4)
€4m
JAG (5)
€3m
SW (9)
€3m
PS (5)
€3m
WP (9)
€3m
ML (2)
€2m
CK (4)
€2m
WK (4)
€2m
WK (3)
€1m
RR (4)
€1m
PG (1)
€0m
Raków Częstochowa's midfield is €9m more valuable than Gornik Zabrze's (€14m vs €6m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LP (12)
€28m
JAG (10)
€15m
WŁ (11)
€15m
RC (6)
€9m
PS (9)
€9m
CK (10)
€8m
ML (8)
€6m
GZ (10)
€6m
WP (9)
€6m
LW (6)
€6m
RR (12)
€6m
KK (8)
€5m
WK (12)
€5m
ZL (13)
€5m
WK (11)
€5m
GK (9)
€4m
PG (10)
€4m
SW (8)
€2m
Raków Częstochowa's defence is €3m more valuable than Gornik Zabrze's (€9m vs €6m).
Poland: Ekstraklasa 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: Ekstraklasa stats & trends →
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Lech Poznan
Legia Warszawa
Wisla Krakow
GKS Katowice
Jagiellonia
Pogon Szczecin
Korona Kielce
Zaglebie Lubin
Cracovia Krakow
Piast Gliwice
Radomiak Radom
Widzew Łódź
Slask Wroclaw
Motor Lublin
Wisla Plock
Wieczysta Kraków