Raków Czestochowa are tipped to win, with a 54 % chance of triumph, a 28 % chance of a draw and a 19 % chance of a Wisła Plock victory. The model predicts a modest 2.4 goals in total, with the most likely scoreline being 1-1 at 13 %. Raków’s home form shows they average 1.6 goals scored and 0.9 conceded against weaker opposition, while Wisła, playing away against stronger teams, average 1.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 11.5 corners at 83.4 %, Under 5.5 cards at 80.3 %, Over 19.5 fouls at 77.4 %, Under 3.5 at 77.3 %, Under 10.5 corners at 74.4 %, Over 2.5 cards at 74.4 % and Over 1.5 at 70.9 %. Raków’s recent form, coming off a draw, and Wisła’s recent string of defeats set the stage for a competitive encounter.
Results analysis
The upset came as Raków Czestochowa, the pre-match favourite with a 54 % chance of victory, fell short, losing 1-2 to Wisła Płock. The model’s call was wrong, and Wisła’s win was the actual result. Raków’s recent form, a draw in their last match, had suggested a fragile edge, while Wisła’s two straight defeats had left them vulnerable, yet they turned the tables. The model’s selections all hit: Under 11.5 corners at 83.4 %, Under 5.5 cards at 80.3 %, Over 19.5 fouls at 77.4 %, Under 3.5 at 77.3 %, Under 10.5 corners at 74.4 %, Over 2.5 cards at 74.4 %, and Over 1.5 at 70.9 %. The match finished 1-2, confirming Wisła’s triumph.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Raków Częstochowa win✗ Miss
53.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Wisla Plock win✓ Hit
18.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Raków Częstochowa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.17
1.60
0.93
1.73
1.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.36
1.55
1.60
1.00
1.17
2.00
vs Weaker (19)
1.84
0.95
1.60
0.90
2.11
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Wisla Plock) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Wisla Plock
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.33
0.79
1.14
1.06
1.50
vs Stronger (6)
1.17
1.17
0.67
0.67
1.67
1.67
vs Similar (24)
0.88
1.38
0.82
1.27
0.92
1.46
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Raków Częstochowa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.9%
Under 1.5
29.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
43.7%
Under 2.5
56.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.7%
Under 3.5
77.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
46.4%
No
53.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%
1-0
12.8%
2-0
11.1%
0-0
10.0%
2-1
9.3%
0-1
6.3%
3-0
5.9%
1-2 ✓
4.9%
Raków Częstochowa goals ↓
Wisla Plock goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
6.3%
3.1%
0.9%
0.2%
1
13%
13%
4.9%
1.4%
0.3%
2
11%
9.3%
3.9%
1.1%
0.2%
3
5.9%
4.9%
2.1%
0.6%
0.1%
4
2.3%
2.0%
0.8%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Raków Częstochowa goals (down), columns = Wisla Plock goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lech Poznan
1.76
Jagiellonia
1.65
Gornik Zabrze
1.65
Raków Częstochowa
1.62
GKS Katowice
1.47
Legia Warszawa
1.44
Zaglebie Lubin
1.41
Wisla Plock
1.35
Pogon Szczecin
1.32
Radomiak Radom
1.29
Wisla Krakow
1.27
Motor Lublin
1.26
Korona Kielce
1.26
Widzew Łódź
1.24
Cracovia Krakow
1.24
Wieczysta Kraków
1.23
Piast Gliwice
1.21
Slask Wroclaw
1.12
Raków Częstochowa is 0.26 points better than Wisla Plock in terms of average points per game (1.62 vs 1.35).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Lech Poznan
1.82
Jagiellonia
1.65
Radomiak Radom
1.53
GKS Katowice
1.50
Raków Częstochowa
1.50
Gornik Zabrze
1.47
Pogon Szczecin
1.38
Motor Lublin
1.35
Zaglebie Lubin
1.32
Wisla Krakow
1.27
Wieczysta Kraków
1.24
Legia Warszawa
1.24
Piast Gliwice
1.24
Widzew Łódź
1.21
Korona Kielce
1.18
Cracovia Krakow
1.15
Slask Wroclaw
1.13
Wisla Plock
1.00
Raków Częstochowa is 0.50 goals better than Wisla Plock in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Legia Warszawa
1.09
Wisla Plock
1.12
Zaglebie Lubin
1.12
Gornik Zabrze
1.12
Raków Częstochowa
1.18
Korona Kielce
1.18
Jagiellonia
1.21
Widzew Łódź
1.21
Cracovia Krakow
1.24
GKS Katowice
1.32
Lech Poznan
1.32
Piast Gliwice
1.35
Pogon Szczecin
1.44
Wisla Krakow
1.47
Wieczysta Kraków
1.51
Radomiak Radom
1.56
Motor Lublin
1.56
Slask Wroclaw
1.66
Raków Częstochowa is 0.06 goals worse than Wisla Plock in terms of goals conceded per game (1.18 vs 1.12).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Jagiellonia
58%
Lech Poznan
58%
Piast Gliwice
56%
Raków Częstochowa
54%
Legia Warszawa
52%
Pogon Szczecin
52%
Gornik Zabrze
52%
Motor Lublin
51%
Radomiak Radom
51%
Cracovia Krakow
50%
Widzew Łódź
49%
GKS Katowice
46%
Korona Kielce
46%
Wisla Plock
43%
Zaglebie Lubin
40%
Raków Częstochowa is 11.0 percentage points better than Wisla Plock in terms of average possession (54% vs 43%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Raków Częstochowa
For 3.1 · Against 5.3 · Total 8.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 2.9 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.9 · Against 14.2 · Total 24.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Wisla Plock
For 5.2 · Against 7.1 · Total 12.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.7 · Against 9.0 · Total 19.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Raków Częstochowa
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
7.7
7.3
8.2
4.2
3.7
4.6
25.2
24.2
26.1
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
8.7
8.4
9.1
4.2
4.5
4.0
25.2
24.0
26.4
vs Weaker (29)
7.0
6.3
7.5
4.1
3.1
5.1
25.2
24.4
25.9
% over line
30%
27%
32%
62%
50%
73%
77%
77%
77%
% under line
70%
73%
68%
38%
50%
27%
23%
23%
23%
This opponent (Wisla Plock) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Wisla Plock
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
10.8
8.4
2.5
2.5
2.4
21.1
21.2
21.0
vs Stronger (8)
10.4
12.2
8.5
3.1
2.5
3.8
20.8
18.8
22.8
vs Similar (37)
9.3
10.4
8.3
2.6
2.7
2.6
21.2
21.9
20.5
vs Weaker (5)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
41%
59%
24%
30%
36%
24%
44%
47%
41%
% under line
59%
41%
76%
70%
64%
76%
56%
53%
59%
This opponent (Raków Częstochowa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Pogon Szczecin
10.7
Zaglebie Lubin
10.6
Motor Lublin
10.3
Gornik Zabrze
10.3
GKS Katowice
10.2
Korona Kielce
10.1
Lech Poznan
10.1
Slask Wroclaw
10.1
Radomiak Radom
10.1
Cracovia Krakow
9.9
Piast Gliwice
9.8
Jagiellonia
9.8
Wisla Plock
9.7
Legia Warszawa
9.5
Widzew Łódź
9.1
Raków Częstochowa
8.2
Wieczysta Kraków
7.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Wieczysta Kraków
10.0
Widzew Łódź
5.1
Motor Lublin
5.1
Raków Częstochowa
5.0
Radomiak Radom
4.9
Slask Wroclaw
4.8
Jagiellonia
4.6
Cracovia Krakow
4.6
Zaglebie Lubin
4.4
Legia Warszawa
4.3
Wisla Plock
4.2
Korona Kielce
4.0
Pogon Szczecin
3.9
Gornik Zabrze
3.9
Piast Gliwice
3.8
Lech Poznan
3.8
GKS Katowice
3.7
Wisla Krakow
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Wieczysta Kraków
38.0
Radomiak Radom
27.7
Jagiellonia
26.7
Widzew Łódź
26.0
Legia Warszawa
25.8
Motor Lublin
25.6
Cracovia Krakow
25.3
Korona Kielce
25.2
Piast Gliwice
25.0
Slask Wroclaw
24.9
Raków Częstochowa
24.9
Zaglebie Lubin
24.4
Pogon Szczecin
23.7
Lech Poznan
23.3
GKS Katowice
23.1
Gornik Zabrze
22.5
Wisla Plock
22.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
36.9%
Under 9.5
63.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
54.3%
Under 3.5
45.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
62.5%
Under 21.5
37.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Raków Częstochowa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.40
0.53
0.27
0.93
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.64
0.55
0.80
0.20
0.50
0.83
vs Weaker (19)
0.79
0.32
0.40
0.30
1.22
0.33
Clean sheet %
70% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Wisla Plock) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Wisla Plock
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.43
0.50
0.29
0.38
0.56
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
0.50
0.33
0.00
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.42
0.42
0.55
0.36
0.31
0.46
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Raków Częstochowa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Raków Częstochowa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raków Częstochowa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raków Częstochowa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wisla Plock over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wisla Plock over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wisla Plock over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Raków Częstochowa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.77
1.07
0.67
0.80
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.73
1.00
0.80
0.80
0.67
1.17
vs Weaker (19)
1.05
0.63
1.20
0.60
0.89
0.67
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Wisla Plock) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Wisla Plock
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.90
0.29
0.86
0.69
0.94
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
0.67
0.33
0.67
1.00
0.67
vs Similar (24)
0.46
0.96
0.27
0.91
0.62
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Raków Częstochowa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Raków Częstochowa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raków Częstochowa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Raków Częstochowa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wisla Plock over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wisla Plock over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Wisla Plock over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 11.5 corners
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JAG (29)
€62m
LP (31)
€53m
RC (33)
€48m
LW (35)
€40m
CK (38)
€33m
GZ (28)
€29m
WŁ (24)
€25m
PS (31)
€22m
WP (33)
€19m
ML (28)
€18m
ZL (28)
€18m
RR (31)
€16m
KK (30)
€16m
WK (24)
€13m
WK (22)
€12m
GK (33)
€11m
PG (27)
€10m
SW (22)
€7m
Raków Częstochowa's squad is €29m more valuable than Wisla Plock's (€48m vs €19m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JAG (17)
€43m
LP (14)
€21m
RC (11)
€18m
GZ (13)
€17m
WŁ (12)
€15m
CK (16)
€15m
LW (13)
€12m
PS (15)
€11m
ML (12)
€10m
ZL (10)
€10m
RR (13)
€7m
WK (8)
€6m
WK (8)
€5m
PG (13)
€4m
WP (9)
€4m
KK (10)
€4m
GK (12)
€3m
SW (5)
€2m
Raków Częstochowa's attack is €14m more valuable than Wisla Plock's (€18m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RC (13)
€18m
LP (5)
€8m
LW (10)
€7m
WP (12)
€6m
KK (10)
€6m
GK (11)
€5m
WŁ (4)
€5m
ZL (7)
€4m
GZ (3)
€4m
SW (9)
€3m
CK (7)
€3m
RR (7)
€2m
ML (5)
€2m
PS (4)
€2m
WK (4)
€2m
JAG (3)
€2m
WK (3)
€1m
PG (2)
€1m
Raków Częstochowa's midfield is €12m more valuable than Wisla Plock's (€18m vs €6m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LP (12)
€23m
LW (12)
€21m
JAG (9)
€17m
CK (15)
€15m
RC (9)
€12m
PS (12)
€9m
WP (12)
€9m
GZ (12)
€7m
RR (11)
€7m
KK (10)
€7m
ML (11)
€6m
WK (12)
€5m
PG (12)
€5m
WK (11)
€5m
WŁ (8)
€5m
ZL (11)
€4m
GK (10)
€3m
SW (8)
€2m
Raków Częstochowa's defence is €3m more valuable than Wisla Plock's (€12m vs €9m).
Poland: Ekstraklasa 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: Ekstraklasa stats & trends →