This opponent (Barcelona) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Barcelona
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.17
0.77
2.27
0.80
2.07
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
2.20
1.60
3.50
2.50
1.33
1.00
vs Weaker (25)
2.16
0.60
2.08
0.54
2.25
0.67
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.9%
Under 1.5
24.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
50.1%
@ 1.58-10.3%
Under 2.5
49.9%
@ 2.41+10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
28.1%
Under 3.5
71.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.7%
No
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
2-1
8.3%
1-2
8.2%
0-0
8.1%
1-0
8.0%
0-1
7.9%
2-0
6.2%
0-2
6.1%
Real Madrid goals ↓
Barcelona goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.1%
7.9%
6.1%
2.7%
0.9%
1
8.0%
14%
8.2%
3.6%
1.2%
2
6.2%
8.3%
5.5%
2.4%
0.8%
3
2.8%
3.7%
2.5%
1.1%
0.4%
4
0.9%
1.3%
0.8%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Real Madrid goals (down), columns = Barcelona goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barcelona
2.32
Real Madrid
2.05
Atletico Madrid
2.03
Real Sociedad
1.87
Villarreal
1.68
Real Betis
1.58
Osasuna
1.39
Athletic Club
1.34
Mallorca
1.32
Rayo Vallecano
1.29
Girona
1.29
Sevilla
1.29
Celta Vigo
1.13
Valencia
1.11
Getafe
1.11
Cadiz
1.11
Almeria
1.08
Valladolid
1.05
Espanyol
0.97
Elche
0.66
Real Madrid is 0.26 points worse than Barcelona in terms of average points per game (2.05 vs 2.32).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Real Madrid
1.97
Atletico Madrid
1.84
Barcelona
1.84
Villarreal
1.55
Girona
1.53
Espanyol
1.37
Real Sociedad
1.34
Almeria
1.29
Athletic Club
1.24
Sevilla
1.24
Real Betis
1.21
Rayo Vallecano
1.18
Celta Vigo
1.13
Valencia
1.11
Mallorca
0.97
Osasuna
0.97
Getafe
0.89
Valladolid
0.87
Elche
0.79
Cadiz
0.79
Real Madrid is 0.13 goals better than Barcelona in terms of goals scored per game (1.97 vs 1.84).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Barcelona
0.53
Atletico Madrid
0.87
Real Sociedad
0.92
Real Madrid
0.95
Villarreal
1.05
Real Betis
1.08
Osasuna
1.11
Mallorca
1.13
Athletic Club
1.13
Valencia
1.18
Getafe
1.18
Rayo Vallecano
1.39
Celta Vigo
1.39
Cadiz
1.39
Sevilla
1.42
Girona
1.45
Valladolid
1.66
Almeria
1.71
Elche
1.76
Espanyol
1.82
Real Madrid is 0.42 goals worse than Barcelona in terms of goals conceded per game (0.95 vs 0.53).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Real Madrid
For 5.9 · Against 5.3 · Total 11.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.0 · Against 10.7 · Total 18.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Barcelona
For 7.8 · Against 3.7 · Total 11.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.7 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 9.5 · Total 20.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Real Madrid
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
10.3
9.5
3.5
3.1
3.8
23.0
22.6
23.3
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
9.2
8.0
10.5
4.2
6.5
2.7
26.8
26.5
27.0
vs Weaker (45)
10.0
10.5
9.4
3.4
2.8
4.0
22.6
22.2
22.9
% over line
57%
57%
57%
44%
38%
50%
60%
52%
67%
% under line
43%
43%
43%
56%
62%
50%
40%
48%
33%
This opponent (Barcelona) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Barcelona
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.6
9.5
4.4
4.0
4.7
25.6
24.6
26.6
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
10.9
12.3
9.8
4.7
4.0
5.2
23.9
28.3
20.5
vs Weaker (43)
9.3
9.1
9.4
4.3
4.0
4.6
25.9
23.9
28.1
% over line
48%
48%
48%
62%
68%
56%
69%
71%
67%
% under line
52%
52%
52%
38%
32%
44%
31%
29%
33%
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Espanyol
10.2
Athletic Club
10.1
Real Betis
10.0
Villarreal
9.9
Real Madrid
9.8
Valladolid
9.8
Cadiz
9.6
Rayo Vallecano
9.5
Osasuna
9.4
Atletico Madrid
9.4
Barcelona
9.3
Valencia
9.2
Almeria
9.2
Elche
9.0
Real Sociedad
8.9
Sevilla
8.7
Mallorca
8.5
Getafe
8.4
Girona
8.4
Celta Vigo
8.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Valencia
6.5
Mallorca
6.0
Getafe
6.0
Espanyol
5.7
Girona
5.6
Rayo Vallecano
5.6
Celta Vigo
5.5
Cadiz
5.5
Atletico Madrid
5.4
Elche
5.2
Almeria
5.1
Valladolid
5.1
Barcelona
5.0
Athletic Club
5.0
Real Betis
4.9
Sevilla
4.9
Villarreal
4.7
Real Sociedad
4.7
Real Madrid
4.1
Osasuna
3.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Valencia
30.8
Mallorca
29.3
Rayo Vallecano
28.5
Getafe
28.5
Valladolid
27.2
Celta Vigo
27.1
Elche
27.0
Girona
26.7
Espanyol
26.4
Real Betis
25.9
Real Sociedad
25.8
Barcelona
25.7
Atletico Madrid
25.7
Athletic Club
25.6
Almeria
25.4
Cadiz
25.2
Sevilla
24.7
Villarreal
24.7
Osasuna
23.9
Real Madrid
23.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
54.7%
Under 9.5
45.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
67.8%
Under 3.5
32.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
69.9%
Under 21.5
30.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Real Madrid
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.50
1.00
0.47
0.67
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
0.67
1.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (27)
0.85
0.44
1.07
0.36
0.62
0.54
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Barcelona) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Barcelona
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.27
1.27
0.27
0.73
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
1.20
0.40
2.00
0.50
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (25)
0.96
0.24
1.15
0.23
0.75
0.25
Clean sheet %
73% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Real Madrid over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Madrid over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Madrid over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barcelona over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barcelona over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barcelona over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Real Madrid
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.27
1.47
0.33
1.27
0.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.50
vs Weaker (27)
1.52
0.19
1.57
0.21
1.46
0.15
Clean sheet %
77% (+49pp vs league)
This opponent (Barcelona) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Barcelona
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.50
1.00
0.53
1.33
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
1.00
1.20
1.50
2.00
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (25)
1.20
0.36
0.92
0.31
1.50
0.42
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Real Madrid over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Madrid over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Madrid over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barcelona over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barcelona over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Barcelona over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Real Madrid
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Karim Benzema44%
Vinícius Júnior36%
Marco Asensio28%
Rodrygo26%
Federico Valverde20%
Álvaro Rodríguez17%
Éder Militão14%
Lucas Vázquez14%
Luka Modrić14%
Eden Hazard11%
Toni Kroos5%
Antonio Rüdiger5%
David Alaba3%
Nacho Fernández3%
Ferland Mendy0%
Thibaut Courtois0%
Daniel Carvajal0%
Álvaro Odriozola0%
Dani Ceballos0%
Mariano Díaz0%
Aurélien Tchouaméni0%
Eduardo Camavinga0%
Andriy Lunin0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Daniel Carvajal26%
Vinícius Júnior24%
Dani Ceballos22%
Nacho Fernández20%
Mariano Díaz20%
Eduardo Camavinga19%
Éder Militão17%
Luka Modrić16%
Ferland Mendy13%
Lucas Vázquez11%
David Alaba9%
Rodrygo9%
Toni Kroos7%
Aurélien Tchouaméni5%
Federico Valverde4%
Karim Benzema3%
Marco Asensio2%
Antonio Rüdiger2%
Thibaut Courtois0%
Álvaro Odriozola0%
Eden Hazard0%
Andriy Lunin0%
Álvaro Rodríguez0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Vinícius Júnior27%
Rodrygo17%
Álvaro Rodríguez17%
Marco Asensio16%
Federico Valverde16%
Toni Kroos14%
Eden Hazard11%
Dani Ceballos11%
Luka Modrić9%
Aurélien Tchouaméni9%
David Alaba9%
Karim Benzema9%
Daniel Carvajal8%
Lucas Vázquez7%
Ferland Mendy4%
Eduardo Camavinga4%
Nacho Fernández3%
Éder Militão0%
Thibaut Courtois0%
Álvaro Odriozola0%
Mariano Díaz0%
Antonio Rüdiger0%
Andriy Lunin0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Karim Benzema59%
Rodrygo41%
Vinícius Júnior27%
Federico Valverde18%
Marco Asensio14%
Lucas Vázquez7%
Toni Kroos5%
Antonio Rüdiger5%
David Alaba3%
Éder Militão2%
Aurélien Tchouaméni2%
Ferland Mendy0%
Thibaut Courtois0%
Daniel Carvajal0%
Nacho Fernández0%
Álvaro Odriozola0%
Dani Ceballos0%
Luka Modrić0%
Mariano Díaz0%
Eduardo Camavinga0%
Eden Hazard0%
Andriy Lunin0%
Álvaro Rodríguez0%
Barcelona
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Robert Lewandowski49%
Memphis Depay33%
Ousmane Dembélé19%
Pedri19%
Raphinha19%
Ferran Torres15%
Sergi Roberto14%
Ansu Fati14%
Marcos Alonso10%
Pablo Torre9%
Jordi Alba7%
Franck Kessié6%
Frenkie de Jong5%
Gavi5%
Eric García4%
Andreas Christensen4%
Jules Koundé3%
Alejandro Baldé3%
Iñaki Peña0%
Marc-André ter Stegen0%
Gerard Piqué0%
Sergio Busquets0%
Héctor Bellerín0%
Ronald Araújo0%
Ángel Alarcón0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Sergio Busquets31%
Gavi31%
Gerard Piqué30%
Ronald Araújo24%
Jordi Alba22%
Raphinha21%
Ousmane Dembélé16%
Ferran Torres15%
Sergi Roberto14%
Franck Kessié14%
Eric García11%
Alejandro Baldé10%
Robert Lewandowski10%
Marcos Alonso10%
Pablo Torre9%
Frenkie de Jong8%
Andreas Christensen7%
Ansu Fati7%
Pedri6%
Jules Koundé6%
Iñaki Peña0%
Marc-André ter Stegen0%
Memphis Depay0%
Héctor Bellerín0%
Ángel Alarcón0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Raphinha21%
Ousmane Dembélé16%
Jordi Alba15%
Robert Lewandowski15%
Alejandro Baldé13%
Jules Koundé12%
Sergio Busquets11%
Sergi Roberto11%
Frenkie de Jong10%
Gavi10%
Ronald Araújo8%
Ferran Torres8%
Ansu Fati5%
Eric García4%
Andreas Christensen4%
Pedri3%
Franck Kessié3%
Iñaki Peña0%
Marc-André ter Stegen0%
Gerard Piqué0%
Memphis Depay0%
Héctor Bellerín0%
Marcos Alonso0%
Pablo Torre0%
Ángel Alarcón0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Robert Lewandowski68%
Memphis Depay33%
Raphinha21%
Ousmane Dembélé16%
Ansu Fati14%
Sergi Roberto7%
Alejandro Baldé5%
Ferran Torres5%
Franck Kessié3%
Iñaki Peña0%
Marc-André ter Stegen0%
Jordi Alba0%
Gerard Piqué0%
Sergio Busquets0%
Frenkie de Jong0%
Eric García0%
Jules Koundé0%
Héctor Bellerín0%
Marcos Alonso0%
Andreas Christensen0%
Ronald Araújo0%
Pedri0%
Pablo Torre0%
Ángel Alarcón0%
Gavi0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (27)
€1456m
BAR (30)
€1282m
AM (25)
€653m
VIL (24)
€325m
RS (24)
€247m
AC (29)
€241m
RB (25)
€235m
CV (24)
€163m
SEV (25)
€134m
VAL (27)
€125m
ESP (24)
€119m
GIR (28)
€114m
GET (24)
€90m
ELC (27)
€79m
RV (23)
€76m
OSA (22)
€71m
ALM (26)
€54m
MAL (26)
€48m
CAD (29)
€27m
VAL (29)
€26m
Real Madrid's squad is €175m more valuable than Barcelona's (€1456m vs €1282m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (10)
€842m
BAR (10)
€590m
AM (9)
€290m
RB (10)
€131m
VIL (8)
€124m
RS (10)
€110m
AC (10)
€106m
GIR (12)
€64m
CV (9)
€57m
SEV (8)
€45m
VAL (10)
€40m
ESP (9)
€39m
ALM (11)
€38m
GET (5)
€36m
ELC (13)
€34m
RV (10)
€30m
OSA (8)
€25m
MAL (11)
€23m
CAD (12)
€11m
VAL (11)
€10m
Real Madrid's attack is €252m more valuable than Barcelona's (€842m vs €590m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (8)
€324m
RM (5)
€238m
AM (6)
€155m
RS (5)
€58m
AC (7)
€57m
VIL (4)
€52m
VAL (5)
€46m
CV (3)
€35m
RB (5)
€33m
ESP (5)
€31m
GIR (7)
€28m
GET (6)
€28m
SEV (5)
€23m
OSA (4)
€12m
ELC (5)
€12m
RV (4)
€9m
MAL (5)
€9m
VAL (6)
€6m
ALM (4)
€4m
CAD (5)
€3m
Real Madrid's midfield is €86m less valuable than Barcelona's (€238m vs €324m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (12)
€377m
BAR (12)
€368m
AM (10)
€208m
VIL (12)
€148m
RS (9)
€79m
AC (12)
€77m
CV (12)
€71m
RB (10)
€70m
SEV (12)
€65m
ESP (10)
€48m
VAL (12)
€39m
RV (9)
€36m
OSA (10)
€33m
ELC (9)
€33m
GET (13)
€26m
GIR (9)
€22m
MAL (10)
€16m
CAD (12)
€12m
ALM (11)
€11m
VAL (12)
€10m
Real Madrid's defence is €9m more valuable than Barcelona's (€377m vs €368m).
Spain: La Liga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: La Liga stats & trends →