This opponent (Celta Vigo) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celta Vigo
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
1.53
2.00
1.07
1.81
1.94
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.50
1.00
1.67
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
1.75
1.62
2.27
0.91
1.31
2.23
vs Weaker (2)
6.00
0.50
-
-
6.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.8%
Under 1.5
16.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
61.9%
Under 2.5
38.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
39.7%
Under 3.5
60.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.9%
No
41.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.3%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
9.2%
1-0
7.7%
3-1
7.0%
3-0
6.5%
2-2 ✓
5.3%
0-0
5.0%
Real Madrid goals ↓
Celta Vigo goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.0%
3.5%
2.4%
0.9%
0.2%
1
7.7%
10%
5.0%
1.8%
0.5%
2
9.2%
9.9%
5.3%
1.9%
0.5%
3
6.5%
7.0%
3.8%
1.3%
0.4%
4
3.4%
3.7%
2.0%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Real Madrid goals (down), columns = Celta Vigo goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Real Sociedad
2.57
Celta Vigo
2.50
Valencia
2.40
Osasuna
2.40
Barcelona
2.33
Atletico Madrid
2.29
Almeria
2.25
Elche
2.25
Rayo Vallecano
2.25
Real Betis
2.25
Pontevedra
2.25
Ourense CF
2.25
Sevilla
2.00
Las Palmas
2.00
Getafe
2.00
Huesca
2.00
Alaves
2.00
Leganes
2.00
Zaragoza
2.00
Girona
2.00
Eldense
2.00
Racing Santander
2.00
Castellón
2.00
Racing Ferrol
2.00
FC Cartagena
2.00
Barbastro
2.00
Zamora
2.00
Marbella
2.00
Real Madrid
1.83
Villarreal
1.50
Gimnastic
1.50
Cadiz
1.50
Burgos
1.50
Cultural Leonesa
1.50
Espanyol
1.50
Sporting Gijon
1.50
FC Andorra
1.50
AD Ceuta FC
1.50
Villamuriel
1.50
Astur
1.50
Europa Fc
1.50
Sant Andreu
1.50
Salamanca UDS
1.50
Conquense
1.50
UD San Pedro
1.50
Vic
1.50
Chiclana
1.50
Manises
1.50
Parla Escuela
1.50
Yeclano
1.50
Unionistas de Salamanca
1.50
Ejea
1.50
Barakaldo
1.50
Valladolid
1.33
Tenerife
1.33
Granada CF
1.33
Deportiva Minera
1.33
Malaga
1.00
Eibar
1.00
Cordoba
1.00
Oviedo
1.00
UD Logroñés
1.00
Escobedo
1.00
Real Ávila
1.00
Estepona
1.00
Orihuela
1.00
Langreo
1.00
Selaya
1.00
Baztán
1.00
Playas Sotavento
1.00
Gimnástica Segoviana
1.00
Ponferradina
0.67
Athletic Club
0.50
Olot
0.50
San Tirso
0.50
Gévora
0.50
Ontiñena
0.50
Cacereño
0.50
Levante
0.00
Alcorcon
0.00
Mallorca
0.00
Albacete
0.00
Mirandes
0.00
Numancia
0.00
Ibiza
0.00
Amorebieta
0.00
Deportivo La Coruna
0.00
Compostela
0.00
Poblense
0.00
Real Jaén
0.00
L'Hospitalet
0.00
Lanzarote
0.00
Las Rozas
0.00
Ciudad de Lucena
0.00
Beasain
0.00
Móstoles
0.00
Badalona
0.00
Cortes
0.00
CD Coria
0.00
SS Reyes
0.00
Águilas
0.00
Extremadura 1924
0.00
Atlético Paso
0.00
Don Benito
0.00
Llanera
0.00
Alfaro
0.00
Cuarte
0.00
Xerez
0.00
Jove Español
0.00
Utebo
0.00
Sonseca
0.00
Ceuta 6 de Junio
0.00
Promesas EDF
0.00
Aurrerá Vitoria
0.00
Dolorense
0.00
Sporting Mahón
0.00
Melilla CD
0.00
Guijuelo
0.00
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas
0.00
Bergantiños
0.00
Lleida Esportiu
0.00
Laredo
0.00
Juventud Torremolinos
0.00
Tudelano
0.00
Hércules
0.00
Real Madrid is 0.67 points worse than Celta Vigo in terms of average points per game (1.83 vs 2.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Celta Vigo
4.25
Barcelona
3.50
Zaragoza
3.50
Las Palmas
3.00
Villarreal
3.00
Rayo Vallecano
3.00
Lanzarote
3.00
Yeclano
3.00
Unionistas de Salamanca
3.00
Real Betis
2.75
Atletico Madrid
2.71
Real Madrid
2.67
Valladolid
2.67
Osasuna
2.60
Almeria
2.50
Burgos
2.50
UD San Pedro
2.50
Real Sociedad
2.43
Sevilla
2.33
Racing Santander
2.33
Leganes
2.20
Elche
2.00
Girona
2.00
Espanyol
2.00
Racing Ferrol
2.00
Móstoles
2.00
Barbastro
2.00
Vic
2.00
Chiclana
2.00
Pontevedra
2.00
Barakaldo
2.00
Deportiva Minera
2.00
Ceuta 6 de Junio
2.00
Valencia
1.60
Cadiz
1.50
Cultural Leonesa
1.50
AD Ceuta FC
1.50
Astur
1.50
Europa Fc
1.50
Sant Andreu
1.50
Estepona
1.50
Manises
1.50
Ourense CF
1.50
Granada CF
1.33
Malaga
1.00
Getafe
1.00
Levante
1.00
Cordoba
1.00
Huesca
1.00
Alaves
1.00
Gimnastic
1.00
Albacete
1.00
Mirandes
1.00
Tenerife
1.00
Athletic Club
1.00
FC Andorra
1.00
Castellón
1.00
FC Cartagena
1.00
Poblense
1.00
L'Hospitalet
1.00
Olot
1.00
Ciudad de Lucena
1.00
SS Reyes
1.00
Real Ávila
1.00
Don Benito
1.00
Cuarte
1.00
Gévora
1.00
Zamora
1.00
Ejea
1.00
Cacereño
1.00
Marbella
1.00
Langreo
1.00
Selaya
1.00
Baztán
1.00
Dolorense
1.00
Playas Sotavento
1.00
Guijuelo
1.00
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas
1.00
Bergantiños
1.00
Lleida Esportiu
1.00
Juventud Torremolinos
1.00
Gimnástica Segoviana
1.00
Eldense
0.67
Sporting Gijon
0.50
Villamuriel
0.50
Salamanca UDS
0.50
Conquense
0.50
San Tirso
0.50
Ontiñena
0.50
Parla Escuela
0.50
Orihuela
0.50
Ponferradina
0.33
Eibar
0.00
Alcorcon
0.00
Mallorca
0.00
Numancia
0.00
Oviedo
0.00
Ibiza
0.00
Amorebieta
0.00
Deportivo La Coruna
0.00
Compostela
0.00
Real Jaén
0.00
Las Rozas
0.00
Beasain
0.00
Badalona
0.00
UD Logroñés
0.00
Escobedo
0.00
Cortes
0.00
CD Coria
0.00
Águilas
0.00
Extremadura 1924
0.00
Atlético Paso
0.00
Llanera
0.00
Alfaro
0.00
Xerez
0.00
Jove Español
0.00
Utebo
0.00
Sonseca
0.00
Promesas EDF
0.00
Aurrerá Vitoria
0.00
Sporting Mahón
0.00
Melilla CD
0.00
Laredo
0.00
Tudelano
0.00
Hércules
0.00
Real Madrid is 1.58 goals worse than Celta Vigo in terms of goals scored per game (2.67 vs 4.25).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Eibar
0.00
Oviedo
0.00
Girona
0.00
UD Logroñés
0.00
Escobedo
0.00
Huesca
0.33
Alaves
0.50
Cadiz
0.50
Sporting Gijon
0.50
Castellón
0.50
Conquense
0.50
Pontevedra
0.50
Parla Escuela
0.50
Yeclano
0.50
Zamora
0.50
Orihuela
0.50
Tenerife
0.67
Eldense
0.67
FC Cartagena
0.67
Marbella
0.67
Real Sociedad
0.71
Atletico Madrid
0.86
Malaga
1.00
Getafe
1.00
Villarreal
1.00
Alcorcon
1.00
Cordoba
1.00
Gimnastic
1.00
Numancia
1.00
Ponferradina
1.00
Elche
1.00
Ibiza
1.00
Cultural Leonesa
1.00
Espanyol
1.00
Deportivo La Coruna
1.00
Granada CF
1.00
FC Andorra
1.00
Compostela
1.00
Beasain
1.00
Águilas
1.00
Atlético Paso
1.00
Vic
1.00
Real Ávila
1.00
Xerez
1.00
Langreo
1.00
Selaya
1.00
Sonseca
1.00
Baztán
1.00
Aurrerá Vitoria
1.00
Playas Sotavento
1.00
Gimnástica Segoviana
1.00
Hércules
1.00
Barcelona
1.17
Valencia
1.20
Celta Vigo
1.25
Ourense CF
1.25
Barbastro
1.33
Osasuna
1.40
Almeria
1.50
Zaragoza
1.50
Burgos
1.50
Rayo Vallecano
1.50
Athletic Club
1.50
AD Ceuta FC
1.50
Europa Fc
1.50
Estepona
1.50
Unionistas de Salamanca
1.50
Ejea
1.50
Barakaldo
1.50
Sevilla
1.67
Las Palmas
1.67
Real Madrid
1.67
Racing Ferrol
1.67
Real Betis
1.75
Leganes
1.80
Valladolid
2.00
Albacete
2.00
Mirandes
2.00
Racing Santander
2.00
Astur
2.00
Olot
2.00
Ciudad de Lucena
2.00
Badalona
2.00
Sant Andreu
2.00
Cortes
2.00
SS Reyes
2.00
Don Benito
2.00
Llanera
2.00
Alfaro
2.00
Manises
2.00
Cacereño
2.00
Deportiva Minera
2.00
Promesas EDF
2.00
Guijuelo
2.00
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas
2.00
Bergantiños
2.00
Juventud Torremolinos
2.00
Villamuriel
2.50
San Tirso
2.50
Chiclana
2.50
Mallorca
3.00
Real Jaén
3.00
Las Rozas
3.00
CD Coria
3.00
Cuarte
3.00
Dolorense
3.00
Lleida Esportiu
3.00
Salamanca UDS
3.50
UD San Pedro
3.50
Gévora
3.50
Levante
4.00
Amorebieta
4.00
Lanzarote
4.00
Extremadura 1924
4.00
Ontiñena
4.00
Utebo
4.00
Ceuta 6 de Junio
4.00
Sporting Mahón
4.00
Melilla CD
4.00
L'Hospitalet
5.00
Móstoles
5.00
Jove Español
5.00
Tudelano
5.00
Poblense
6.00
Laredo
6.00
Real Madrid is 0.42 goals worse than Celta Vigo in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 1.25).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Barcelona
58%
Real Madrid
50%
Atletico Madrid
43%
Real Sociedad
42%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Real Madrid
For 4.6 · Against 4.4 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.8 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.8 · Against 15.9 · Total 24.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Celta Vigo
For 3.2 · Against 2.9 · Total 6.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 3.4 · Total 5.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.9 · Against 12.8 · Total 24.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Real Madrid
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.3
9.9
4.1
3.7
4.4
23.0
21.9
24.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
11.6
10.2
13.2
4.7
4.2
5.2
23.0
23.6
22.2
vs Weaker (41)
9.8
10.4
9.3
4.0
3.6
4.3
23.0
21.4
24.4
% over line
57%
67%
48%
58%
50%
65%
57%
46%
68%
% under line
43%
33%
52%
42%
50%
35%
43%
54%
32%
This opponent (Celta Vigo) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celta Vigo
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.7
7.9
9.4
4.4
4.7
4.2
25.0
25.9
24.2
vs Stronger (6)
8.3
6.5
12.0
5.2
6.0
3.5
22.3
24.2
18.5
vs Similar (40)
8.6
7.9
9.1
4.5
4.2
4.6
25.1
25.9
24.3
vs Weaker (4)
11.5
13.0
10.0
3.2
8.0
1.7
32.5
32.0
33.0
% over line
45%
30%
58%
58%
57%
59%
68%
83%
54%
% under line
55%
70%
42%
42%
43%
41%
32%
17%
46%
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Barcelona
10.4
Oviedo
10.3
Deportivo La Coruna
10.2
Racing Santander
10.2
Real Madrid
10.1
Real Sociedad
10.0
Burgos
9.7
Numancia
9.7
Ibiza
9.7
Levante
9.7
Eibar
9.7
Rayo Vallecano
9.6
Alaves
9.6
Espanyol
9.6
Almeria
9.5
Real Betis
9.5
Cordoba
9.5
Eldense
9.5
Huesca
9.5
Sevilla
9.5
Tenerife
9.5
Cultural Leonesa
9.5
Las Palmas
9.4
Zaragoza
9.4
Albacete
9.4
Castellón
9.4
Valladolid
9.4
Ponferradina
9.3
Granada CF
9.3
Athletic Club
9.3
Villarreal
9.2
Mirandes
9.2
Osasuna
9.2
Sporting Gijon
9.0
Gimnastic
9.0
Alcorcon
9.0
Malaga
8.9
Celta Vigo
8.8
Racing Ferrol
8.8
Valencia
8.8
FC Andorra
8.8
Elche
8.8
Atletico Madrid
8.8
Amorebieta
8.8
FC Cartagena
8.8
Cadiz
8.7
Leganes
8.7
Mallorca
8.7
Girona
8.4
Getafe
8.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Getafe
6.4
Racing Santander
6.1
Gimnastic
5.9
Villarreal
5.9
Cadiz
5.8
Zaragoza
5.7
Cultural Leonesa
5.6
Malaga
5.6
Numancia
5.6
Elche
5.5
Rayo Vallecano
5.5
Valladolid
5.4
Sporting Gijon
5.3
Tenerife
5.3
Granada CF
5.3
Alaves
5.3
Real Sociedad
5.2
Las Palmas
5.2
Espanyol
5.2
Cordoba
5.1
Sevilla
5.1
Real Betis
5.1
Oviedo
5.1
Almeria
5.0
Huesca
5.0
Mirandes
5.0
Girona
5.0
Celta Vigo
4.9
Alcorcon
4.9
Ponferradina
4.8
FC Andorra
4.8
Eibar
4.8
Barcelona
4.8
Leganes
4.8
Osasuna
4.7
Valencia
4.7
Burgos
4.6
FC Cartagena
4.6
Albacete
4.5
Eldense
4.5
Levante
4.5
Athletic Club
4.5
Deportivo La Coruna
4.5
Racing Ferrol
4.5
Amorebieta
4.4
Mallorca
4.4
Atletico Madrid
4.3
Castellón
4.2
Real Madrid
4.2
Ibiza
4.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Numancia
30.6
Gimnastic
30.1
Getafe
30.1
Cordoba
29.9
Cultural Leonesa
29.8
Cadiz
29.5
Racing Santander
29.0
Malaga
28.6
Elche
28.1
Espanyol
28.1
Ibiza
28.1
Rayo Vallecano
27.3
Oviedo
27.2
Almeria
26.8
Zaragoza
26.7
Granada CF
26.7
Alaves
26.6
Tenerife
26.5
Real Sociedad
26.4
Leganes
26.3
Castellón
26.2
Eldense
26.0
Deportivo La Coruna
25.8
Valladolid
25.8
Racing Ferrol
25.6
Real Betis
25.6
Levante
25.4
Mallorca
25.4
Villarreal
25.2
Celta Vigo
25.1
Athletic Club
25.1
Mirandes
25.1
FC Andorra
25.0
Valencia
24.9
Las Palmas
24.7
Osasuna
24.6
Alcorcon
24.6
Ponferradina
24.4
Amorebieta
24.3
Albacete
23.9
Sporting Gijon
23.9
Huesca
23.8
Sevilla
23.8
FC Cartagena
23.8
Eibar
23.2
Real Madrid
23.1
Atletico Madrid
23.0
Girona
23.0
Burgos
22.8
Barcelona
22.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
54.8%
Under 9.5
45.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
58.0%
Under 3.5
42.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
55.1%
Under 21.5
44.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Real Madrid or Draw✓ Hit
82.5%
Avg Implied -
60%
22%
17%
covers Real Madrid + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Real Madrid or Celta Vigo✗ Miss
77.8%
Avg Implied -
60%
22%
17%
covers Real Madrid + Celta Vigo
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Celta Vigo✓ Hit
39.7%
Avg Implied -
60%
22%
17%
covers Draw + Celta Vigo
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Real Madrid over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
88.0%
Under
12.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Madrid over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
62.5%
Under
37.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Madrid over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
35.6%
Under
64.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Madrid over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
16.5%
Under
83.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celta Vigo over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
65.9%
Under
34.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celta Vigo over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
29.2%
Under
70.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celta Vigo over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
9.5%
Under
90.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celta Vigo over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Real Madrid, so a minus line means Real Madrid give that many goals of a start and Celta Vigo receive them. At -1, Real Madrid must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Real Madrid win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Real Madrid)Actual: Celta Vigo
Real Madrid -2
19.6%
Draw -2
18.5%
Celta Vigo +2
61.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Real Madrid)Actual: Celta Vigo
Real Madrid -1
38.1%
Draw -1
22.2%
Celta Vigo +1
39.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Real Madrid)Actual: Real Madrid
Real Madrid +1
82.5%
Draw +1
10.8%
Celta Vigo -1
6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Real Madrid)Actual: Real Madrid
Real Madrid +2
93.3%
Draw +2
4.8%
Celta Vigo -2
1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Real Madrid
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.40
1.00
0.36
0.88
0.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (27)
1.04
0.44
1.08
0.38
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Celta Vigo) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celta Vigo
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.63
0.86
0.64
0.88
0.62
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (24)
0.83
0.67
1.09
0.64
0.62
0.69
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
0.50
-
-
3.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Real Madrid over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Madrid over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Madrid over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celta Vigo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celta Vigo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celta Vigo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Real Madrid
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
0.73
1.71
0.71
1.19
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
0.33
2.33
0.00
4.00
0.50
1.50
vs Weaker (27)
1.56
0.56
1.85
0.46
1.29
0.64
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Celta Vigo) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celta Vigo
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.90
1.14
0.43
0.94
1.31
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.92
0.96
1.18
0.27
0.69
1.54
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
0.00
-
-
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Real Madrid over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Madrid over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Madrid over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celta Vigo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celta Vigo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Celta Vigo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Real Madrid
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kylian Mbappé54%
Vinícius Júnior31%
Jude Bellingham27%
Gonzalo García25%
Jacobo Ramón20%
Rodrygo19%
Endrick16%
Federico Valverde15%
Brahim Díaz12%
Daniel Carvajal10%
Arda Güler10%
Luka Modrić7%
Antonio Rüdiger7%
Éder Militão6%
Eduardo Camavinga6%
Lucas Vázquez4%
Aurélien Tchouaméni4%
David Alaba0%
Ferland Mendy0%
Thibaut Courtois0%
Fran García0%
Jesús Vallejo0%
Dani Ceballos0%
Andriy Lunin0%
Lorenzo Aguado0%
Raúl Asencio0%
Chema Andrés0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jacobo Ramón40%
Vinícius Júnior27%
Éder Militão25%
Luka Modrić20%
Lucas Vázquez19%
Aurélien Tchouaméni19%
Eduardo Camavinga19%
Jude Bellingham19%
Raúl Asencio18%
David Alaba14%
Dani Ceballos14%
Antonio Rüdiger13%
Endrick11%
Daniel Carvajal10%
Federico Valverde9%
Kylian Mbappé8%
Ferland Mendy7%
Arda Güler2%
Thibaut Courtois2%
Brahim Díaz2%
Fran García0%
Jesús Vallejo0%
Rodrygo0%
Andriy Lunin0%
Gonzalo García0%
Lorenzo Aguado0%
Chema Andrés0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jesús Vallejo25%
Gonzalo García25%
Jude Bellingham23%
Vinícius Júnior21%
Rodrygo19%
Luka Modrić17%
Arda Güler15%
Federico Valverde15%
Lucas Vázquez13%
Brahim Díaz12%
Daniel Carvajal10%
Kylian Mbappé8%
Ferland Mendy7%
Andriy Lunin7%
Fran García7%
Éder Militão6%
Eduardo Camavinga6%
Dani Ceballos5%
Raúl Asencio5%
Aurélien Tchouaméni2%
David Alaba0%
Thibaut Courtois0%
Antonio Rüdiger0%
Lorenzo Aguado0%
Endrick0%
Jacobo Ramón0%
Chema Andrés0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Kylian Mbappé67%
Vinícius Júnior40%
Jude Bellingham23%
Arda Güler17%
Endrick14%
Rodrygo13%
Brahim Díaz8%
Federico Valverde7%
Éder Militão6%
Eduardo Camavinga3%
Antonio Rüdiger2%
Aurélien Tchouaméni2%
David Alaba0%
Ferland Mendy0%
Thibaut Courtois0%
Daniel Carvajal0%
Fran García0%
Jesús Vallejo0%
Dani Ceballos0%
Luka Modrić0%
Lucas Vázquez0%
Andriy Lunin0%
Gonzalo García0%
Lorenzo Aguado0%
Raúl Asencio0%
Jacobo Ramón0%
Chema Andrés0%
Celta Vigo
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Iago Aspas32%
Borja Iglesias23%
Alfon González22%
Anastasios Douvikas15%
Hugo Álvarez14%
Marcos Alonso12%
Williot Swedberg12%
Óscar Mingueza11%
Fernando Lopez11%
Pablo Durán10%
Iker Losada8%
Javi Rodríguez8%
Jonathan Bamba8%
Fran Beltrán6%
Carl Starfelt3%
Ilaix Moriba3%
Franco Cervi0%
Jailson0%
Vicente Guaita0%
Javier Manquillo0%
Mihailo Ristić0%
Iván Villar0%
Sergio Carreira0%
Carlos Domínguez0%
Damián Rodríguez0%
Hugo Sotelo0%
Yoel Lago0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Marcos Alonso30%
Yoel Lago25%
Hugo Sotelo23%
Ilaix Moriba23%
Hugo Álvarez21%
Carl Starfelt20%
Óscar Mingueza19%
Javi Rodríguez18%
Damián Rodríguez18%
Iván Villar17%
Iker Losada17%
Iago Aspas16%
Jailson15%
Franco Cervi11%
Fran Beltrán11%
Fernando Lopez11%
Pablo Durán10%
Borja Iglesias10%
Mihailo Ristić10%
Anastasios Douvikas10%
Javier Manquillo9%
Jonathan Bamba8%
Williot Swedberg6%
Carlos Domínguez5%
Sergio Carreira4%
Alfon González4%
Vicente Guaita0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Pablo Durán21%
Óscar Mingueza17%
Iago Aspas16%
Sergio Carreira16%
Williot Swedberg15%
Yoel Lago12%
Hugo Álvarez11%
Mihailo Ristić10%
Jonathan Bamba8%
Borja Iglesias8%
Alfon González7%
Ilaix Moriba6%
Javi Rodríguez5%
Anastasios Douvikas5%
Fran Beltrán3%
Franco Cervi0%
Jailson0%
Marcos Alonso0%
Vicente Guaita0%
Javier Manquillo0%
Iván Villar0%
Carl Starfelt0%
Iker Losada0%
Carlos Domínguez0%
Damián Rodríguez0%
Hugo Sotelo0%
Fernando Lopez0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Iago Aspas19%
Alfon González15%
Anastasios Douvikas10%
Borja Iglesias8%
Ilaix Moriba6%
Pablo Durán3%
Marcos Alonso3%
Williot Swedberg3%
Franco Cervi0%
Jailson0%
Vicente Guaita0%
Javier Manquillo0%
Mihailo Ristić0%
Jonathan Bamba0%
Iván Villar0%
Fran Beltrán0%
Carl Starfelt0%
Iker Losada0%
Sergio Carreira0%
Óscar Mingueza0%
Carlos Domínguez0%
Damián Rodríguez0%
Hugo Sotelo0%
Hugo Álvarez0%
Yoel Lago0%
Javi Rodríguez0%
Fernando Lopez0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (27)
€1456m
BAR (30)
€1282m
AM (25)
€653m
VIL (24)
€325m
RS (24)
€247m
AC (29)
€241m
RB (25)
€235m
CV (24)
€163m
SEV (25)
€134m
VAL (27)
€125m
ESP (24)
€119m
GIR (28)
€114m
GET (24)
€90m
LEV (26)
€89m
RS (20)
€89m
DLC (29)
€84m
ELC (27)
€79m
RV (23)
€76m
OSA (22)
€71m
ALA (25)
€68m
ALM (26)
€54m
MAL (26)
€48m
MAL (27)
€41m
OVI (23)
€30m
LEG (26)
€30m
LP (27)
€30m
SG (23)
€28m
CAD (29)
€27m
VAL (29)
€26m
CAS (28)
€21m
ALB (27)
€18m
BUR (22)
€17m
GC (18)
€17m
COR (26)
€16m
EIB (24)
€15m
FA (26)
€15m
TEN (28)
€12m
ACF (22)
€10m
ZAR (20)
€9m
ELD (20)
€7m
MIR (21)
€6m
CL (20)
€6m
HUE (21)
€5m
Real Madrid's squad is €1294m more valuable than Celta Vigo's (€1456m vs €163m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (10)
€842m
BAR (10)
€590m
AM (9)
€290m
RB (10)
€131m
VIL (8)
€124m
RS (10)
€110m
AC (10)
€106m
GIR (12)
€64m
CV (9)
€57m
LEV (10)
€51m
DLC (9)
€49m
SEV (8)
€45m
VAL (10)
€40m
ESP (9)
€39m
ALM (11)
€38m
GET (5)
€36m
ELC (13)
€34m
RS (7)
€34m
RV (10)
€30m
MAL (11)
€26m
OSA (8)
€25m
ALA (8)
€24m
MAL (11)
€23m
OVI (11)
€15m
SG (8)
€14m
LP (12)
€14m
LEG (11)
€14m
CAD (12)
€11m
CAS (10)
€11m
VAL (11)
€10m
ALB (10)
€8m
BUR (7)
€8m
EIB (8)
€7m
GC (5)
€6m
FA (10)
€6m
ACF (10)
€5m
TEN (13)
€5m
ZAR (8)
€4m
COR (9)
€4m
ELD (8)
€3m
CL (8)
€3m
HUE (9)
€2m
MIR (6)
€2m
Real Madrid's attack is €785m more valuable than Celta Vigo's (€842m vs €57m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (8)
€324m
RM (5)
€238m
AM (6)
€155m
RS (5)
€58m
AC (7)
€57m
VIL (4)
€52m
VAL (5)
€46m
CV (3)
€35m
RB (5)
€33m
ESP (5)
€31m
GIR (7)
€28m
GET (6)
€28m
RS (5)
€28m
SEV (5)
€23m
ALA (8)
€22m
LEV (5)
€16m
DLC (7)
€13m
OSA (4)
€12m
ELC (5)
€12m
RV (4)
€9m
MAL (5)
€9m
LEG (5)
€8m
MAL (5)
€6m
VAL (6)
€6m
OVI (4)
€6m
SG (5)
€5m
ALM (4)
€4m
COR (5)
€4m
ALB (7)
€4m
TEN (5)
€4m
BUR (6)
€4m
CAD (5)
€3m
EIB (6)
€3m
GC (3)
€3m
CAS (6)
€3m
LP (5)
€3m
FA (5)
€3m
ZAR (4)
€2m
ACF (4)
€1m
ELD (3)
€1m
HUE (4)
€1m
MIR (4)
€1m
CL (4)
€1m
Real Madrid's midfield is €202m more valuable than Celta Vigo's (€238m vs €35m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (12)
€377m
BAR (12)
€368m
AM (10)
€208m
VIL (12)
€148m
RS (9)
€79m
AC (12)
€77m
CV (12)
€71m
RB (10)
€70m
SEV (12)
€65m
ESP (10)
€48m
VAL (12)
€39m
RV (9)
€36m
OSA (10)
€33m
ELC (9)
€33m
RS (8)
€28m
GET (13)
€26m
GIR (9)
€22m
DLC (13)
€22m
LEV (11)
€22m
ALA (9)
€22m
MAL (10)
€16m
LP (10)
€13m
CAD (12)
€12m
ALM (11)
€11m
VAL (12)
€10m
OVI (8)
€10m
MAL (11)
€9m
SG (10)
€9m
GC (10)
€9m
LEG (10)
€8m
CAS (12)
€8m
COR (12)
€7m
FA (11)
€7m
BUR (9)
€6m
ALB (10)
€5m
EIB (10)
€5m
MIR (11)
€4m
TEN (10)
€3m
ELD (9)
€3m
ACF (8)
€3m
ZAR (8)
€3m
CL (8)
€2m
HUE (8)
€2m
Real Madrid's defence is €306m more valuable than Celta Vigo's (€377m vs €71m).
Spain: La Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: La Liga stats & trends →
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Barcelona
Atletico Madrid
Athletic Club
Villarreal
Real Betis
Osasuna
Rayo Vallecano
Mallorca
Valencia
Real Sociedad
Getafe
Alaves
Espanyol
Sevilla
Girona
Leganes
Las Palmas
Valladolid