Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz Result & Analysis

Red Bull Salzburg’s defensive solidity is the story here, conceding only a quarter of a goal per game at home against similar-strength opposition. Sturm Graz, however, concedes more than one goal on average away, so the match is likely to be tight and low-scoring. The model favours a home win, with a 40% chance, a draw 32% and an away win 28%. The expected total is 2.1 goals, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 14.6% probability. Salzburg’s home form shows 0.75 goals scored and 0.25 conceded, while Sturm Graz’s away form shows 1.0 scored and 1.33 conceded. The suggested selections are: Over 19.5 fouls 85.8%, Under 3.5 83.6%, Over 2.5 cards 83.1%, Over 21.5 fouls 74.0% and Under 11.5 corners 70.2%.

Red Bull Salzburg’s 2-1 victory over Sturm Graz extended their four-game winning run, confirming the model’s home-win pick with a 40% probability. The win matched the 28% chance of an away win and the 32% draw, so the favourite was right. The model’s suggested selections performed largely well: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 85.8%, Under 3.5 hit at 83.6%, and Over 2.5 cards hit at 83.1%. Over 21.5 fouls missed at 74.0% and Under 11.5 corners missed at 70.2%. The match’s 2-goal total aligned with the most likely score of 1-1, 0-0 or 1-0, each under 15%. Overall, the model’s predictions were largely accurate.