This opponent (Bastia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bastia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.07
0.50
1.36
0.94
0.81
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
3.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.60
1.08
0.50
1.25
0.69
0.92
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
0.67
0.00
1.00
3.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Red Star) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
63.1%
Under 1.5
36.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
34.8%
@ 2.43-3.4%
Under 2.5
65.2%
@ 1.50+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
16.0%
Under 3.5
84.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
43.0%
No
57.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.7%
0-0
13.7%
1-0
12.9%
0-1
10.3%
2-0
8.2%
2-1
7.7%
1-2
6.3%
0-2
5.5%
Red Star goals ↓
Bastia goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
10%
5.5%
1.7%
0.4%
1
13%
15%
6.3%
2.0%
0.5%
2
8.2%
7.7%
3.6%
1.1%
0.3%
3
3.1%
2.9%
1.4%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.9%
0.8%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Red Star goals (down), columns = Bastia goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Estac Troyes
2.03
Le Mans
1.78
Saint Etienne
1.75
Red Star
1.67
Rodez
1.67
RED Star FC 93
1.67
Reims
1.67
Annecy
1.53
Montpellier
1.47
PAU
1.33
Dunkerque
1.28
Guingamp
1.11
Grenoble
1.08
Clermont Foot
1.06
Nancy
1.03
Boulogne
1.03
Laval
0.97
Bastia
0.82
Amiens
0.75
Rouen
0.50
Red Star is 0.84 points better than Bastia in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 0.82).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Estac Troyes
1.78
Saint Etienne
1.72
Dunkerque
1.56
Reims
1.56
PAU
1.42
Annecy
1.42
Le Mans
1.39
Red Star
1.36
RED Star FC 93
1.36
Rodez
1.31
Guingamp
1.22
Montpellier
1.19
Amiens
1.14
Clermont Foot
1.11
Boulogne
1.03
Nancy
1.00
Grenoble
0.92
Laval
0.84
Bastia
0.76
Rouen
0.50
Red Star is 0.60 goals better than Bastia in terms of goals scored per game (1.36 vs 0.76).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Le Mans
0.86
Montpellier
0.92
Estac Troyes
0.94
Rouen
1.00
Reims
1.03
Saint Etienne
1.11
Red Star
1.12
RED Star FC 93
1.12
Rodez
1.14
Annecy
1.14
Grenoble
1.19
Bastia
1.26
Dunkerque
1.28
Clermont Foot
1.31
Laval
1.32
Boulogne
1.47
Nancy
1.53
Guingamp
1.56
PAU
1.81
Amiens
1.92
Red Star is 0.14 goals better than Bastia in terms of goals conceded per game (1.12 vs 1.26).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Saint Etienne
59%
Reims
58%
Dunkerque
57%
Guingamp
56%
RED Star FC 93
54%
Montpellier
52%
Estac Troyes
52%
PAU
51%
Clermont Foot
50%
Bastia
50%
Le Mans
49%
Amiens
47%
Laval
47%
Boulogne
46%
Annecy
45%
Grenoble
44%
Rouen
43%
Nancy
42%
Rodez
40%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
RS
Red Star
For 6.2 · Against 2.9 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 14.8 · Total 26.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Bastia
For 4.6 · Against 4.1 · Total 8.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.0 · Against 16.0 · Total 30.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
RS
Red Star
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.5
8.4
8.6
3.5
3.9
3.1
26.4
27.8
24.9
vs Stronger (16)
7.6
7.0
8.2
3.5
3.5
3.5
25.8
27.2
24.2
vs Similar (34)
8.9
9.0
8.8
3.5
4.1
2.9
26.7
28.1
25.2
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
48%
46%
50%
48%
58%
38%
76%
81%
71%
% under line
52%
54%
50%
52%
42%
62%
24%
19%
29%
This opponent (Bastia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bastia
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.8
8.3
9.2
5.2
5.3
5.0
29.5
29.9
29.0
vs Stronger (4)
6.8
6.0
7.0
5.8
8.0
5.0
27.2
28.0
27.0
vs Similar (41)
9.2
8.7
9.7
5.2
5.3
5.2
29.6
29.9
29.4
vs Weaker (5)
6.8
7.0
6.0
4.2
4.7
3.5
30.0
31.0
27.0
% over line
34%
25%
43%
80%
84%
76%
85%
83%
87%
% under line
66%
75%
57%
20%
16%
24%
15%
17%
13%
This opponent (Red Star) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Amiens
10.6
Laval
10.3
Rodez
10.2
Grenoble
9.9
Nancy
9.8
Montpellier
9.7
PAU
9.7
Saint Etienne
9.5
Reims
9.3
Le Mans
9.2
Guingamp
9.1
Clermont Foot
9.1
Rouen
8.9
Bastia
8.7
Boulogne
8.6
Annecy
8.6
Dunkerque
8.6
RED Star FC 93
8.5
Red Star
8.5
Estac Troyes
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bastia
5.5
PAU
4.8
Boulogne
4.7
Guingamp
4.6
Le Mans
4.5
Annecy
4.4
Rodez
4.3
Montpellier
4.2
Amiens
4.2
Laval
4.1
Clermont Foot
4.1
Estac Troyes
4.1
Dunkerque
4.1
Nancy
4.0
Saint Etienne
3.9
Reims
3.9
RED Star FC 93
3.7
Grenoble
3.6
Red Star
3.5
Rouen
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Bastia
29.5
Annecy
28.9
Montpellier
28.8
Nancy
28.6
Boulogne
28.5
Amiens
28.3
Laval
27.9
Le Mans
27.7
Guingamp
27.6
Estac Troyes
27.6
Rouen
27.2
Clermont Foot
26.7
Dunkerque
26.4
Red Star
26.4
RED Star FC 93
26.2
PAU
26.0
Grenoble
26.0
Saint Etienne
25.6
Rodez
25.6
Reims
23.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
40.1%
Under 9.5
59.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
68.4%
Under 3.5
31.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
91.5%
Under 21.5
8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
RS
Red Star
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.37
0.60
0.40
0.53
0.33
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.60
0.25
0.75
vs Similar (21)
0.52
0.24
0.40
0.30
0.64
0.18
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Bastia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bastia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.70
0.29
0.79
0.50
0.62
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.32
0.72
0.25
0.67
0.38
0.77
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.33
0.00
1.00
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Red Star) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Red Star over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Red Star over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Red Star over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bastia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bastia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bastia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
RS
Red Star
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.60
0.40
0.73
0.73
0.47
vs Stronger (9)
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.40
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.81
0.57
0.60
0.90
1.00
0.27
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Bastia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bastia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.2
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.37
0.21
0.57
0.44
0.19
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.28
0.36
0.25
0.58
0.31
0.15
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.33
0.00
0.00
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Red Star) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Red Star over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Red Star over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Red Star over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bastia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bastia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bastia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 23.5 fouls
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 10.5 corners
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Bastia
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Joachim Eickmayer20%
Felix Tomi14%
Jeremy Sebas13%
Ruben Beliandjou9%
Anthony Roncaglia8%
Amine Boutrah7%
Alexandre Zaouai7%
Dominique Guidi5%
Christophe Vincent4%
Juan Guevara4%
Tom Ducrocq3%
Mehdi Merghem0%
Gustave Akueson0%
Florian Bohnert0%
Johny Placide0%
Issiaka Karamoko0%
Loïc Etoga0%
Maxime Blé0%
Tom Meynadier0%
Noah Zilliox0%
Yahya Bathily0%
Victor Lebas0%
Ayman Aiki0%
Lisandru Olmeta0%
Zakaria Ariss0%
Jocelyn Janneh0%
Nicolas Parravicini0%
Matteo Petrignani0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Noah Zilliox50%
Nicolas Parravicini50%
Juan Guevara44%
Dominique Guidi38%
Zakaria Ariss29%
Tom Ducrocq24%
Florian Bohnert20%
Gustave Akueson19%
Jeremy Sebas17%
Tom Meynadier16%
Anthony Roncaglia16%
Christophe Vincent16%
Amine Boutrah14%
Joachim Eickmayer13%
Mehdi Merghem12%
Loïc Etoga10%
Matteo Petrignani10%
Issiaka Karamoko10%
Johny Placide9%
Felix Tomi9%
Lisandru Olmeta8%
Maxime Blé7%
Alexandre Zaouai7%
Jocelyn Janneh4%
Yahya Bathily0%
Victor Lebas0%
Ayman Aiki0%
Ruben Beliandjou0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Loïc Etoga10%
Matteo Petrignani10%
Amine Boutrah7%
Alexandre Zaouai7%
Felix Tomi6%
Johny Placide4%
Florian Bohnert4%
Juan Guevara4%
Jocelyn Janneh4%
Zakaria Ariss3%
Tom Ducrocq0%
Dominique Guidi0%
Anthony Roncaglia0%
Christophe Vincent0%
Mehdi Merghem0%
Gustave Akueson0%
Joachim Eickmayer0%
Issiaka Karamoko0%
Maxime Blé0%
Tom Meynadier0%
Noah Zilliox0%
Yahya Bathily0%
Victor Lebas0%
Ayman Aiki0%
Lisandru Olmeta0%
Jeremy Sebas0%
Nicolas Parravicini0%
Ruben Beliandjou0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mehdi Merghem25%
Jeremy Sebas23%
Amine Boutrah21%
Felix Tomi14%
Joachim Eickmayer7%
Christophe Vincent4%
Tom Ducrocq3%
Dominique Guidi0%
Anthony Roncaglia0%
Gustave Akueson0%
Florian Bohnert0%
Johny Placide0%
Issiaka Karamoko0%
Loïc Etoga0%
Juan Guevara0%
Maxime Blé0%
Tom Meynadier0%
Noah Zilliox0%
Yahya Bathily0%
Victor Lebas0%
Ayman Aiki0%
Lisandru Olmeta0%
Zakaria Ariss0%
Jocelyn Janneh0%
Nicolas Parravicini0%
Matteo Petrignani0%
Alexandre Zaouai0%
Ruben Beliandjou0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
France: Ligue 2 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 2 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Bastia
Estac Troyes
Le Mans
Saint Etienne
Reims
Rodez
Annecy
RED Star FC 93
Montpellier
PAU
Dunkerque
Guingamp
Grenoble
Clermont Foot
Boulogne
Laval
Nancy
Amiens
Rouen