PythiaFootballBETA
Reims, unbeaten in their last 5 matches, are favourites to win against PAU on May 9th in Ligue 2. This matchup is expected to be a high-scoring one, with 3.1 goals on average. The most likely total number of goals is 2. Among the scorelines with the highest probability, 1-1 is the most likely outcome, with a 10.6% chance.
Reims have been scoring 1.77 goals per game at home against weaker opponents, conceding 1.15 goals. PAU, on the other hand, have been conceding 6 goals per game away to stronger opponents and scoring 0. PAU's recent form has been inconsistent, coming off a win but having a string of losses prior to that.
The model's selection is a home win, with a 60% probability. The probabilities for a home win, draw, and away win are 60%, 23%, and 18%, respectively. The model's selections include Over 21.5 fouls, with an 84.2% chance of being correct, and Over 1.5, with an 82.9% chance of being correct.
Reims' win extends their unbeaten run, a remarkable turnaround from their recent form. The final score of 5-3 was a far cry from the predicted 2-0 most likely outcome, with the model's expected total goals of 3.1 also being surpassed comfortably. The model's selection, Home win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 60%. The model's call was the only one, as it was the only favourite.
The model's selection of Home win was correct, but the suggested picks were not entirely on target. Over 1.5 goals hit, with a probability of 82.9%, but Over 21.5 fouls missed, with a probability of 84.2%.
Reims| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.53 | 0.97 | 1.60 | 1.00 | 1.47 | 0.93 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (4) | 1.00 | 1.25 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 1.50 | 2.50 |
| vs Weaker (26) | 1.62 | 0.92 | 1.77 | 1.15 | 1.46 | 0.69 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+16pp vs league) | |||||
PAU| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.37 | 1.80 | 1.20 | 1.87 | 1.53 | 1.73 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.00 | 4.50 | 0.00 | 3.00 | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| vs Similar (25) | 1.36 | 1.72 | 1.31 | 1.77 | 1.42 | 1.67 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 2.33 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (-1pp vs league) | |||||
| PAU goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 5.3% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 8.1% | 11% | 5.1% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| 2 | 9.4% | 9.9% | 5.3% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| 3 | 6.5% | 6.9% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 3.3% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
ReimsPAUReims| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.2 | 8.7 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 24.8 | 24.2 | 25.3 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 11.2 | 12.0 | 11.0 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 17.0 | 15.0 | 17.5 |
| vs Similar (13) | 9.5 | 9.6 | 9.4 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 25.4 | 22.8 | 29.6 |
| vs Weaker (32) | 8.7 | 7.9 | 9.4 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 25.7 | 25.6 | 25.8 |
| % over line | 42% | 38% | 46% | 56% | 54% | 58% | 74% | 62% | 85% |
| % under line | 58% | 62% | 54% | 44% | 46% | 42% | 26% | 38% | 15% |
PAU| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.6 | 9.7 | 9.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 26.0 | 25.8 | 26.3 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 21.4 | 28.0 | 17.0 |
| vs Similar (40) | 10.0 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 26.5 | 25.9 | 27.3 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 6.8 | 6.0 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 26.8 | 22.0 | 30.0 |
| % over line | 43% | 46% | 39% | 76% | 81% | 71% | 74% | 69% | 79% |
| % under line | 57% | 54% | 61% | 24% | 19% | 29% | 26% | 31% | 21% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 21.5 fouls | 84.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 1.5 | 82.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08/25 | A | 2-0 |
Reims| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 25/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 10/04/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 09/03/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 27/02/26 | A | 0-0 |
PAU| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 24/04/26 | A | 5-1 | |
| 17/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 10/04/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 06/04/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 20/03/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 13/03/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 06/03/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 28/02/26 | H | 0-3 | |
| 21/02/26 | A | 4-3 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Estac Troyes | 36 | 73 | 61% | 2.0 | 64 | 34 | +30 | 2.7 | 69% | 56% | 31% | 8.3 | 42% | 4.5 | 57% | 27.8 | 92% | 62 | 41 | 7 | 14 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 52% |
| 2 |  Le Mans | 36 | 64 | 44% | 1.8 | 50 | 31 | +19 | 2.2 | 58% | 33% | 22% | 9.8 | 58% | 4.6 | 74% | 27.3 | 89% | 17 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 49% |
| 3 |  Saint Etienne | 36 | 63 | 53% | 1.8 | 62 | 40 | +22 | 2.8 | 75% | 58% | 31% | 9.0 | 31% | 4.1 | 56% | 26.9 | 89% | 82 | 46 | 11 | 26 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 59% |
| 4 | Reims | 36 | 60 | 42% | 1.7 | 56 | 37 | +19 | 2.6 | 64% | 44% | 33% | 8.6 | 33% | 4.4 | 58% | 25.5 | 78% | 109 | 37 | 31 | 41 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 58% |
| 5 |  Rodez | 36 | 60 | 42% | 1.7 | 47 | 41 | +6 | 2.4 | 78% | 47% | 17% | 9.9 | 53% | 4.3 | 63% | 26.7 | 86% | 22 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 40% |
| 6 |  Annecy | 36 | 55 | 44% | 1.5 | 51 | 41 | +10 | 2.6 | 72% | 56% | 22% | 8.4 | 36% | 4.2 | 60% | 29.1 | 89% | 13 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 45% |
| 7 | RS Red Star | 33 | 55 | 45% | 1.7 | 45 | 37 | +8 | 2.5 | 67% | 52% | 27% | 8.3 | 45% | 3.6 | 48% | 27.0 | 76% | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | - |
| 8 |  RED Star FC 93 | 33 | 55 | 45% | 1.7 | 45 | 37 | +8 | 2.5 | 67% | 52% | 27% | 8.3 | 45% | 3.8 | 59% | 27.0 | 76% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 54% |
| 9 |  Montpellier | 36 | 53 | 39% | 1.5 | 43 | 33 | +10 | 2.1 | 67% | 28% | 17% | 9.8 | 53% | 4.2 | 67% | 29.9 | 94% | 30 | 10 | 5 | 15 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 52% |
| 10 | PAU | 36 | 48 | 36% | 1.3 | 51 | 65 | -14 | 3.2 | 83% | 69% | 36% | 9.2 | 36% | 4.6 | 77% | 26.1 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 51% |
| 11 |  Dunkerque | 36 | 46 | 33% | 1.3 | 56 | 46 | +10 | 2.8 | 72% | 53% | 31% | 8.4 | 28% | 4.0 | 58% | 26.6 | 89% | 42 | 18 | 13 | 11 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 57% |
| 12 |  Guingamp | 36 | 40 | 28% | 1.1 | 44 | 56 | -12 | 2.8 | 69% | 58% | 36% | 9.1 | 33% | 4.9 | 71% | 28.3 | 86% | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 56% |
| 13 |  Grenoble | 36 | 39 | 22% | 1.1 | 33 | 43 | -10 | 2.1 | 58% | 39% | 19% | 9.4 | 47% | 4.0 | 51% | 26.6 | 83% | 17 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 44% |
| 14 |  Clermont Foot | 36 | 38 | 25% | 1.1 | 40 | 47 | -7 | 2.4 | 61% | 47% | 25% | 9.5 | 47% | 4.0 | 60% | 26.0 | 81% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 50% |
| 15 |  Boulogne | 36 | 37 | 25% | 1.0 | 37 | 53 | -16 | 2.5 | 61% | 50% | 22% | 8.9 | 42% | 4.5 | 69% | 27.9 | 89% | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 46% |
| 16 |  Laval | 38 | 37 | 18% | 1.0 | 32 | 50 | -18 | 2.2 | 66% | 34% | 21% | 10.2 | 58% | 4.2 | 54% | 29.6 | 95% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 47% |
| 17 |  Nancy | 36 | 37 | 25% | 1.0 | 36 | 55 | -19 | 2.5 | 67% | 53% | 28% | 9.1 | 50% | 4.4 | 61% | 29.7 | 94% | 13 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 42% |
| 18 |  Bastia | 34 | 28 | 15% | 0.8 | 26 | 43 | -17 | 2.0 | 59% | 21% | 21% | 8.8 | 24% | 5.3 | 79% | 29.3 | 82% | 37 | 5 | 25 | 6 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 50% |
| 19 |  Amiens | 36 | 27 | 19% | 0.8 | 41 | 69 | -28 | 3.1 | 72% | 58% | 39% | 10.6 | 61% | 4.2 | 69% | 28.1 | 86% | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 47% |
| 20 |  Rouen | 2 | 1 | 0% | 0.5 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 1.5 | 50% | 0% | 0% | 6.5 | 0% | 6.5 | 100% | 34.5 | 100% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 43% |