Defensive solidity will shape the opening minutes as Resovia Rzeszów, who have conceded an average of two goals at home against stronger opposition, faces Arka Gdynia, whose away form shows no goals conceded to weaker opponents. The model favours an away win with a 36% probability, a draw at 35%, and a home win at 29%. The expected total is 1.9 goals, with the most likely total being two goals at 28%. The single most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 14.1% chance. The Under 3.5 selection carries an 88.2% probability, while Under 2.5 is 71.5%. In the suggested picks, the model also offers a 0-1 scoreline at 14.1%, a 1-1 at 14.7%, and a 0-0 at 17%. All probabilities are expressed as percentages, and no other selections are mentioned.
Results analysis
Resovia Rzeszów’s recent win keeps their form on an upward trend, while Arka Gdynia arrive after a draw, both teams looking sharp. The final score was 1-3, confirming the away win that the model had picked with a 36% probability. The prediction proved correct. The model’s total-goals expectation of 1.9 was far below the actual tally of four, and the most likely score of 0-1 was missed. The suggested picks also fell short: Under 3.5, with an 88.2% probability, was missed, as was Under 2.5, with a 71.5% chance. The match delivered more goals than the model anticipated, underscoring the unpredictability of the game.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Resovia Rzeszów win✗ Miss
29.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
34.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Arka Gdynia win✓ Hit
35.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Resovia Rzeszów
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.25
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.50
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (3)
0.67
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
25% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Arka Gdynia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arka Gdynia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.33
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Resovia Rzeszów) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
56.7%
Under 1.5
43.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
28.5%
Under 2.5
71.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
11.8%
Under 3.5
88.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
37.8%
No
62.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
17.0%
1-1
14.7%
0-1
14.1%
1-0
12.2%
0-2
7.6%
1-2
6.6%
2-0
5.9%
2-1
5.8%
Resovia Rzeszów goals ↓
Arka Gdynia goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
17%
14%
7.6%
2.5%
0.6%
1
12%
15%
6.6%
2.2%
0.5%
2
5.9%
5.8%
2.9%
0.9%
0.2%
3
1.7%
1.7%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
4
0.4%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Resovia Rzeszów goals (down), columns = Arka Gdynia goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
ŁKS Łódź
1.94
Ruch Chorzów
1.82
Nieciecza
1.81
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.72
Wisla Krakow
1.71
Stal Rzeszów
1.46
Podbeskidzie
1.44
Arka Gdynia
1.41
Chrobry Głogów
1.35
GKS Katowice
1.29
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.24
Górnik Łęczna
1.18
Tychy 71
1.15
Resovia Rzeszów
1.12
Odra Opole
1.09
SKRA Częstochowa
0.91
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
0.79
Chojniczanka Chojnice
0.79
Resovia Rzeszów is 0.29 points worse than Arka Gdynia in terms of average points per game (1.12 vs 1.41).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Wisla Krakow
1.77
ŁKS Łódź
1.71
Podbeskidzie
1.65
Arka Gdynia
1.65
Nieciecza
1.64
Stal Rzeszów
1.63
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.53
Ruch Chorzów
1.41
Tychy 71
1.35
Chrobry Głogów
1.29
Resovia Rzeszów
1.26
GKS Katowice
1.21
Górnik Łęczna
1.18
Odra Opole
1.15
Chojniczanka Chojnice
1.03
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
0.97
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
0.82
SKRA Częstochowa
0.56
Resovia Rzeszów is 0.38 goals worse than Arka Gdynia in terms of goals scored per game (1.26 vs 1.65).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ruch Chorzów
0.97
ŁKS Łódź
1.06
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.08
Nieciecza
1.08
GKS Katowice
1.15
Wisla Krakow
1.20
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.26
Stal Rzeszów
1.31
Górnik Łęczna
1.32
Arka Gdynia
1.32
Podbeskidzie
1.38
Odra Opole
1.41
SKRA Częstochowa
1.47
Resovia Rzeszów
1.50
Tychy 71
1.53
Chrobry Głogów
1.56
Sandecja Nowy Sącz
1.59
Chojniczanka Chojnice
1.68
Resovia Rzeszów is 0.18 goals worse than Arka Gdynia in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.32).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Resovia Rzeszów
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (3)
0.67
0.33
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Arka Gdynia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arka Gdynia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.2
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.25
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
100% (+75pp vs league)
This opponent (Resovia Rzeszów) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Resovia Rzeszów over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Resovia Rzeszów over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Resovia Rzeszów over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arka Gdynia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arka Gdynia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arka Gdynia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Resovia Rzeszów
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.00
0.75
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (3)
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
25% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Arka Gdynia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arka Gdynia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.25
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.50
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Resovia Rzeszów) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Resovia Rzeszów over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Resovia Rzeszów over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Resovia Rzeszów over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arka Gdynia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arka Gdynia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arka Gdynia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 2.5
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Arka Gdynia · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Vladislavs Gutkovskis25%
Oskar Kubiak21%
Nazariy Rusyn17%
Eduardo Espiau14%
Dawid Kocyła10%
Sebastian Kerk9%
Marc Navarro7%
Dawid Abramowicz7%
Kamil Jakubczyk6%
Michał Marcjanik6%
Luis Perea5%
Kike Hermoso5%
Dawid Gojny5%
Aurélien Nguiamba0%
Tornike Gaprindashvili0%
Patryk Szysz0%
Michał Rzuchowski0%
Serafin Szota0%
Szymon Sobczak0%
Damian Węglarz0%
João Oliveira0%
Dominick Zator0%
Julien Celestine0%
Jędrzej Grobelny0%
Alassane Sidibe0%
Diego Percan0%
Hide Vitalucci0%
Marcel Predenkiewicz0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Julien Celestine62%
Kamil Jakubczyk29%
Tornike Gaprindashvili24%
Dawid Gojny23%
Diego Percan22%
Aurélien Nguiamba21%
Kike Hermoso19%
Alassane Sidibe19%
Nazariy Rusyn17%
Luis Perea16%
Marc Navarro14%
Dawid Abramowicz14%
Jędrzej Grobelny14%
Vladislavs Gutkovskis12%
Michał Marcjanik12%
Michał Rzuchowski11%
Dominick Zator11%
Eduardo Espiau10%
Serafin Szota10%
Sebastian Kerk9%
Oskar Kubiak7%
Dawid Kocyła6%
Patryk Szysz0%
Szymon Sobczak0%
Damian Węglarz0%
João Oliveira0%
Hide Vitalucci0%
Marcel Predenkiewicz0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sebastian Kerk18%
Marc Navarro14%
Diego Percan11%
Kike Hermoso10%
Dawid Abramowicz7%
Oskar Kubiak7%
Vladislavs Gutkovskis6%
Tornike Gaprindashvili6%
Luis Perea5%
Dawid Gojny5%
Patryk Szysz4%
Kamil Jakubczyk3%
Nazariy Rusyn0%
Aurélien Nguiamba0%
Michał Marcjanik0%
Michał Rzuchowski0%
Serafin Szota0%
Szymon Sobczak0%
Damian Węglarz0%
João Oliveira0%
Dominick Zator0%
Julien Celestine0%
Dawid Kocyła0%
Jędrzej Grobelny0%
Alassane Sidibe0%
Eduardo Espiau0%
Hide Vitalucci0%
Marcel Predenkiewicz0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Vladislavs Gutkovskis31%
Oskar Kubiak14%
Nazariy Rusyn13%
Dawid Abramowicz7%
Kamil Jakubczyk6%
Sebastian Kerk6%
Kike Hermoso5%
Eduardo Espiau3%
Dawid Kocyła3%
Marc Navarro0%
Aurélien Nguiamba0%
Tornike Gaprindashvili0%
Michał Marcjanik0%
Patryk Szysz0%
Dawid Gojny0%
Michał Rzuchowski0%
Serafin Szota0%
Szymon Sobczak0%
Damian Węglarz0%
Luis Perea0%
João Oliveira0%
Dominick Zator0%
Julien Celestine0%
Jędrzej Grobelny0%
Alassane Sidibe0%
Diego Percan0%
Hide Vitalucci0%
Marcel Predenkiewicz0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Poland: I Liga 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: I Liga stats & trends →